A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

You do realize the Dodgers are bigger bargain basement hunters than the Sox, right?

A $300mill roster and they still have Max Muncy playing 3b? 

FanGraphs shows Muncy with a 2024 dRAR of +1.3.

Their worst defensive guys by far were Teoscar (-14.8) and Freeman (-9.0).

[notin]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Big additions: Chapman, Hendricks, Whitlock

Big subtractions: Jansen, Martin

Still not comfortable with the back end options.  Hendricks has health questions. 

They need to sign Scott or Yates or Estevez.  They have the money.  There's no excuse for not doing it.

Maybe the Sox are not so influenced by the Recency Effect.

Yates turns 38 shortly and has pitched for 10 years and accumulated 9.0 bWAR in that time, 3.3 of which came in 2024.

Estevez is younger (30) but 2.1 of his career 4.8 bWAR came in 2024.

Scott, whom I have openly advocated for, has earned 7.4 of his career 8.1 bWAR recently, but at least it’s been across the last two seasons.  Also he is the youngest of the three…

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

The Dodgers have been in the playoffs 12 years in a row and in 4 of the last 8 World Series.

What they're doing is working.  And they're set up for plenty more years.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Maybe the Sox are not so influenced by the Recency Effect.

Yates turns 38 shortly and has pitched for 10 years and accumulated 9.0 bWAR in that time, 3.3 of which came in 2024.

Estevez is younger (30) but 2.1 of his career 4.8 bWAR came in 2024.

Scott, whom I have openly advocated for, has earned 7.4 of his career 8.1 bWAR recently, but at least it’s been across the last two seasons.  Also he is the youngest of the three…

 

 

"Maybe they're just cheap."  Sorry but I am gonna default to that sometimes.

Recency Effect is pretty big with relievers, no doubt. 

[notin]

17 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

FanGraphs shows Muncy with a 2024 dRAR of +1.3.

Their worst defensive guys by far were Teoscar (-14.8) and Freeman (-9.0).

Look at any other metric for any other season, preferably one where he played more than 73 games…

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, notin said:

You do realize the Dodgers are bigger bargain basement hunters than the Sox, right?

A $300mill roster and they still have Max Muncy playing 3b? 

I think the Dodger pen still includes Brasier.

That being said, I do think the loss of Jansen and Martin is significant, despite the drop off by both since 2023. I also see the loss of others as being an addition by subtraction, but I do see and agree with Bell on the point that we have not added a closer. I think Chapman, hendriks and Whitlock have improved the set-up man situation over Martin, but with one being the closer, it might cancel all those gains out.

While we don't know how well the pen replacements will do, or how well those who will see their IP grow will do.

It's not easy to see how Jansen and Martin's 99 IP will be replaced in kind, but how about these 99 IP?

50 Anderson 4.11

42 Booser 3.38

7 Campbell 16.20

 

or, these 149 IP?

47 Bernardino 4.37

24 Keller 5.84

18 Horn 6.50

15 Garcia 8.22

14 Sims 6.42

14 Joely 5.93

9 Shugart 4.15

4 Hill 4.91

2 Wingenter 27.00

2 Jacquez 5.40

 

We need a real closer, and until we get one, I'm not projecting a better pen, but the rest of the pen looks better.

1. ______

2. Hendriks

3. Chapman

4. Slaten

5. Whitlock

6. Winckowski

7. Crawford/Criswell

8. Wilson

The larger improvement, IMO, comes with the AAA depth:

Guerrero, Weissert, Penrod, Kelly, Criswell, Fitts, priester, Dobbins

Bernardino, Adams,  I Campbell, Moran, Mata, N Davis, Harris, Adames, Mills, Stock

I'm with Bell: add Yates or Estevez, since we will not get Scott, and now we'd have a better pen, for sure.

[notin]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

"Maybe they're just cheap."  Sorry but I am gonna default to that sometimes.

Recency Effect is pretty big with relievers, no doubt. 

Scott was my biggest (realistic) target going into the off-season.  Estevez is acceptable.  Pass on Yates hard.

Kyle Finnegan, John Brebbia, and Ryne Stanek are all acceptable targets as well.  Maybe Paul Sewald, too.  Reportedly they talked to Phil Maton, on whom I have no opinion…

[notin]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think the Dodger pen still includes Brasier.

That being said, I do think the loss of Jansen and Martin is significant, despite the drop off by both since 2023. I also see the loss of others as being an addition by subtraction, but I do see and agree with Bell on the point that we have not added a closer. I think Chapman, hendriks and Whitlock have improved the set-up man situation over Martin, but with one being the closer, it might cancel all those gains out.

While we don't know how well the pen replacements will do, or how well those who will see their IP grow will do.

It's not easy to see how Jansen and Martin's 99 IP will be replaced in kind, but how about these 99 IP?

50 Anderson 4.11

42 Booser 3.38

7 Campbell 16.20

 

or, these 149 IP?

47 Bernardino 4.37

24 Keller 5.84

18 Horn 6.50

15 Garcia 8.22

14 Sims 6.42

14 Joely 5.93

9 Shugart 4.15

4 Hill 4.91

2 Wingenter 27.00

2 Jacquez 5.40

 

We need a real closer, and until we get one, I'm not projecting a better pen, but the rest of the pen looks better.

1. ______

2. Hendriks

3. Chapman

4. Slaten

5. Whitlock

6. Winckowski

7. Crawford/Criswell

8. Wilson

The larger improvement, IMO, comes with the AAA depth:

Guerrero, Weissert, Penrod, Kelly, Criswell, Fitts, priester, Dobbins

Bernardino, Adams,  I Campbell, Moran, Mata, N Davis, Harris, Adames, Mills, Stock

I'm with Bell: add Yates or Estevez, since we will not get Scott, and now we'd have a better pen, for sure.

What is a “real closer”?  And we need a definition that includes Yates and Estevez but not Chapman and Hendriks…

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

Scott was my biggest (realistic) target going into the off-season.  Estevez is acceptable.  Pass on Yates hard.

Kyle Finnegan, John Brebbia, and Ryne Stanek are all acceptable targets as well.  Maybe Paul Sewald, too.  Reportedly they talked to Phil Maton, on whom I have no opinion…

Yates turns 38 in March, but he seems to be aging very well. The thing a bout him is that it would be a one-year deal, so the risk is lowered.

Yates has 60+ IP for two straight years.

2.21 ERA (188 ERA+)

3.55 FIP

1.01 WHIP

12.2 K/9 and a bad 4.3 BB/9

0.9 HR/9

OPS Against:

.407 in '24 (.409 v R/.403 v L)

.619 in '23 (.657 v R/.574 v L)

I'd roll the dice on a 1 year deal.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

What is a “real closer”?  And we need a definition that includes Yates and Estevez but not Chapman and Hendriks…

Good point. Estevez would just be adding another good set-up man into a closerless mix. Yates was a closer in 2024, though. Finnegan was, too. I'd take him... maybe over Estevez, for that reason. (He'd probably be cheaper, too.)

[notin]

29 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Dodgers have been in the playoffs 12 years in a row and in 4 of the last 8 World Series.

What they're doing is working.  And they're set up for plenty more years.

Even with Dave Robert’s working overtime to take them down from the inside!

[notin]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Good point. Estevez would just be adding another good set-up man into a closerless mix. Yates was a closer in 2024, though. Finnegan was, too. I'd take him... maybe over Estevez, for that reason. (He'd probably be cheaper, too.)

Chapman was a closer in 2024, too.  He took over once Bednar lost the job…

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

What is a “real closer”?  And we need a definition that includes Yates and Estevez but not Chapman and Hendriks…

I guess you could argue Hendriks and Chapman are "closers," but when was the last time either was a lock-down closer?

I'll save you some time:

Hendriks was for 2 - maybe 4- years of his 13 year career: 2021, 2022  and '19-'20. (2019-2022 2.26 ERA and 114 saves) I guess that wasn't that long ago, but the guy had major surgery and turns 36, before opening day.

Chapman was for many years (2012-2021,) but that was 3 years ago. 2022-2024: 3.68 ERA & 29 saves. Gotta love the 14 K/9 but yikes on the 6 BB/9. He should not be a "real closer."

Maybe Whitlock or Slaten can grow into the role, but when I see our closers for our 4 ring years, I cringe at who we have now.

Foulke, Papelbon, Uehara, Kimbrell

Those 4 were REAL CLOSERS!

 

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

Chapman was a closer in 2024, too.  He took over once Bednar lost the job…

14 saves in 19 chances. I guess that is "real," but not real good, and certainly not lockdown.

[Bellhorn04]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

14 saves in 19 chances. I guess that is "real," but not real good, and certainly not lockdown.

73.7%.  That's not good at all.

[Bellhorn04]

31 minutes ago, notin said:

Look at any other metric for any other season, preferably one where he played more than 73 games…

You're right, he's a poor defender.  But he's never had an fWAR lower than 2.0 for a full season.  His average is 3-4 fWAR.

If we're looking at him as a Dodger weakness, we must be pretty desperate.

[Bellhorn04]

Jansen was 56/64 in save opportunities for us.  That's 87.5%.  I'd say the gold standard is 90%, but that's pretty hard to do.

Rivera's career % was 91.3.

[moonslav59]

37 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

You're right, he's a poor defender.  But he's never had an fWAR lower than 2.0 for a full season.  His average is 3-4 fWAR.

If we're looking at him as a Dodger weakness, we must be pretty desperate.

Hey, they were forced to play a guy named Mookie at SS, so how good can they really be?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, notin said:

You do realize the Dodgers are bigger bargain basement hunters than the Sox, right?

A $300mill roster and they still have Max Muncy playing 3b? 

I know... Muncy the two-time Dodger All-Star and three-time Dodger recipient of NL MVP votes -- the guy who the Dodgers have paid at least $48 million, are committed to paying $14 million more, with over 23 bWAR and a higher postseason OPS than his career OPS, with 13 home runs in 13 playoff series.

The Bloom/Brez Sox must have signed at least nobody like Max in free agency.

[notin]

53 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Hey, they were forced to play a guy named Mookie at SS, so how good can they really be?

They’re not forced to do it; it’s a choice.

Last year, they started Betts at SS over fielding metrics God Miguel Rojas.  Why? To put Jason Hayward’s “bat” in the lineup?

[notin]

19 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I know... Muncy the two-time Dodger All-Star and three-time Dodger recipient of NL MVP votes -- the guy who the Dodgers have paid at least $48 million, are committed to paying $14 million more, with over 23 bWAR and a higher postseason OPS than his career OPS, with 13 home runs in 13 playoff series.

The Bloom/Brez Sox must have signed at least nobody like Max in free agency.

So you’re saying he wasn’t a bargain basement pickup when he was released by the A’s?

[Bellhorn04]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

So you’re saying he wasn’t a bargain basement pickup when he was released by the A’s?

Every team does some shopping in the bargain basement.

It just seems like the Red Sox do an inordinate amount of it.

The bottom line, really, is that when you've been failing for an extended period like the Sox, your methodology is going to come into question. 

[dgalehouse]

Nobody likes him, but Aroldis Chapman is a legitimate closer. He is in the top 20 all time in saves. He is getting older and has bounced around a bit the last couple of years, but he has maintained his fastball velocity. Liam Hendriks has also proven to be an effective closer. The supporting cast in the bullpen is not bad either. It would be nice to add Tanner Scott, but I think this bullpen is shaping up quite well. And that bodes well for the success of the 2025 Red Sox. More than anything else, it was the bullpen that killed the team's chances in 2024. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

14 saves in 19 chances. I guess that is "real," but not real good, and certainly not lockdown.

you’re not looking solely at his time as the closer.  Once he replaced Bednar, he converted 10 of 11 save opportunities.  You’re counting blown saves that were hold opportunities…

[Bellhorn04]

Pitching-wise the issue with Chapman is that he loses the plate.  He's been averaging 5-6 walks per 9 innings the last 4 seasons.  Sox fans will be running for the Rolaids.    

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

you’re not looking solely at his time as the closer.  Once he replaced Bednar, he converted 10 of 11 save opportunities.  You’re counting blown saves that were hold opportunities…

Correct.  14 saves/22 holds/5 blown sales = an actual conversion record of 36/41 which is very good.  

[dgalehouse]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Pitching-wise the issue with Chapman is that he loses the plate.  He's been averaging 5-6 walks per 9 innings the last 4 seasons.  Sox fans will be running for the Rolaids.    

Sox fans keep the pharmacies profitable. That's just the way we are. 

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

Nobody likes him, but Aroldis Chapman is a legitimate closer. He is in the top 20 all time in saves. He is getting older and has bounced around a bit the last couple of years, but he has maintained his fastball velocity. Liam Hendriks has also proven to be an effective closer. The supporting cast in the bullpen is not bad either. It would be nice to add Tanner Scott, but I think this bullpen is shaping up quite well. And that bodes well for the success of the 2025 Red Sox. More than anything else, it was the bullpen that killed the team's chances in 2024. 

He "was" a legitmate closer."

2012-2019 481 games (272 Svs in 301 Sv Opps)

2020-2021: 74 games (33 Svs in 39 Sv Opps)

2022-2024: 172 games (29 Svs in 39 Opps)

Save Opps per game:

63% '12-'19

53% '20-'21

23% '22-'24

His role as a closer has declined since 2019. He went from almost 2/3rd of his games in sva e situations to less than 1/4.

Go ahead, and pencil him in as our "legit closer" and get back to me in August/September. Even if he does well, he'd be better placed as our co-setup man with Hendriks. Slaten and Whitlock would also make formidable 7th inning guys.

Adding a real or legitimate closer would transform the rest of the pen into pluses at every slot.

Hendriks and Chapman rate to be a top 10 eighth inning duo.

Slaten & Whitlock might be a top 5 seventh inning duo.

Wink, Crawford & Wilson would be a top 10 or 15 bottom 3 guys in the pen, and I still think our AAA pen depth beats 2 out of every 3 MLB team's depth.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

15 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Every team does some shopping in the bargain basement.

It just seems like the Red Sox do an inordinate amount of it.

The bottom line, really, is that when you've been failing for an extended period like the Sox, your methodology is going to come into question. 

No, the Dodgers are just so lucky in guys when they spend $300 million on signings.

[Old Red]

15 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

Nobody likes him, but Aroldis Chapman is a legitimate closer. He is in the top 20 all time in saves. He is getting older and has bounced around a bit the last couple of years, but he has maintained his fastball velocity. Liam Hendriks has also proven to be an effective closer. The supporting cast in the bullpen is not bad either. It would be nice to add Tanner Scott, but I think this bullpen is shaping up quite well. And that bodes well for the success of the 2025 Red Sox. More than anything else, it was the bullpen that killed the team's chances in 2024. 

True that Hendricks WAS an effective closer, but that was back in 2021-2022. He pretty much hasn’t pitched since then, will turn 36, and coming off an arm injury. Who knows what he has left, and what you’ll get out of him. Fulmer is coming off an arm injury, and so is Whit, so that’s my biggest concern.