Red Sox Run Prevention Watch

[mvp 78]

It's just been unfun to watch. 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's just been unfun to watch. 

Makes one wonder if 2018 becomes the new 1918.

[Maxbialystock]

24 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's just been unfun to watch. 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

16 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Makes one wonder if 2018 becomes the new 1918.

You're just saying that because shortly after both those Red Sox teams won the World Series, they gave away to big market rivals their best player/WAR leader/future Hall of Famer, and each won rings for their new clubs.

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

You're just saying that because shortly after both those Red Sox teams won the World Series, they gave away to big market rivals their best player/WAR leader/future Hall of Famer, and each won rings for their new clubs.

Those who do not learn from history are condemned to repeat it, Mr. Henry.

[Maxbialystock]

A lot of moaning and groaning, to say nothing of a sense of entitlement, on this thread. 

With perhaps the exception of giving away Babe Ruth, a truly great pitcher who turned out to be maybe the greatest hitter in MLB history, the Sox preference for offense over defense is also how they finally ended the 86 year drought and won the WS in 2004, 2007, 2013, and 2018 (the best Sox team in history).  

In 2004 they led MLB in runs scored, in 2007 they were 3d, in 2013 first again, and first again in 2018.  Good hitting wins games, even titles.  Gotta have good pitching too, but defense is a distant third.  

These days, as I will remind all of you relentlessly, one half of every MLB roster is composed of pitchers, whose only job is defense.  I personally think pitching in MLB is extremely hard to do and so agree with the notion of 13 pitchers even though only one pitcher can be on that mound at a time.  In any case, pitching is far and away the most important part of a team's defense.  

All of the scoring, on the other hand, depends on the 13 lineup players, who also play defense.  Fortunately, the average MLB player can be counted on not to commit an error roughly 97% of the time.  Not so at the plate, where he can expect to get a hit maybe 27% of the time and something else--an out, a walk, an HBP, a hit ball leading to an error--83% of the time.  

Because of the above numbers, the Sox have always preferred "good hit, adequate field" over "inadequate hit, good field" at every position.  Thus during the John Henry era, the one with the four WS wins, the longest serving SS has been Xander Bogaerts.  Thus is Devers, a subpar thirdbaseman, the guy with the big contract. 

I would be remiss if I didn't also note the Sox have had some excellent defensive players--Pedey, JBJ, JD Drew, Ellsbury almost, Alex Gonzalez and Jose Iglesias at SS, and a bunch of others.  Even this season I think both Duran and Rafaela are standouts on a team that, granted, is dead last in MLB in fielding percentage.

It therefore infuriates me read about how important the freaking defense is when in fact the only reason why the Sox are above .500 is that those same lineup players have the Sox ranked 6th in MLB in runs scored.  The pitching, measured by team ERA, is ranked 21st.  

 

[mvp 78]

---

---

2004 Sox starters were 2nd in fWAR. The starters were 2nd in FIP. Overall, the Sox pitchers were 4th in fWAR. That team had great pitching.  

To say that the '04 team won with hitting is foolish. 

[Maxbialystock]

35 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

You're just saying that because shortly after both those Red Sox teams won the World Series, they gave away to big market rivals their best player/WAR leader/future Hall of Famer, and each won rings for their new clubs.

The 2020 season and postseason were hugely affected by the covid epidemic, which demonstrably helped the Dodgers, whose 2020 WS win is the only one since 1988, 36 years ago. 

When Mookie went to the Dodgers in 2019, it was because the Sox already had the biggest payroll in MLB, which would have increased by at least $50M in order to outbid the Dodgers for Betts as well as to find and pay good starters to replace Price and Sale while at the same time continuing to pay both of their hefty salaries.  

[mvp 78]

Aside from 04, the other 3 WS teams all had top 7 defenses. I can't imagine another year where the Sox win a WS with a bottom ranked defense. It just doesn't seem very likely. 

[Maxbialystock]

4 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

The 2020 season and postseason were hugely affected by the covid epidemic, which demonstrably helped the Dodgers, whose 2020 WS win is the only one since 1988, 36 years ago. 

When Mookie went to the Dodgers in 2019, it was because the Sox already had the biggest payroll in MLB, which would have increased by at least $50M in order to outbid the Dodgers for Betts as well as to find and pay good starters to replace Price and Sale while at the same time continuing to pay both of their hefty salaries.  

I left something out.  The LA Dodgers also have the highest attendance in MLB and a much bigger fan base than the Sox.  They are in fact far more profitable and can therefore afford to spend more than the Sox.  A bidding war with the Dodgers for Mookie Betts would have been unwinnable.  

[mvp 78]

It's not a bidding war if you sign the extension before Mookie becomes a FA. 

Also, there are payroll restrictions on all ballclubs. The reason LA has an advantage in FA has more to do with the entertainment business, weather and closer proximity to the Asian market. 

[Maxbialystock]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Aside from 04, the other 3 WS teams all had top 7 defenses. I can't imagine another year where the Sox win a WS with a bottom ranked defense. It just doesn't seem very likely. 

I saw that too.  The defense was ranked like 27th in 2004--but the others, as you say were pretty good.  

I'm not against good defense, nor are the Sox.   But almost invariably a good glove also has to be able to hit to stick with the Sox.  JBJ is a great example.  Tremendous arm and equally terrific routes to the ball in CF, he  replaced Ellsbury on day 1 of the 2014 season, and after about a month or so went back to Pawtucket.  That went on until August--that is, back and forth between Boston and Pawtucket--when JBJ's hitting seemed to come around.   He finished that season with an OPS of just .531.  But in 2015 it was .832, in 2016 .835, in 2017 .726, 2018 .717, and 2019 .738.    His overall WAR's, 2014-2019, were .6, 2.2, 5.3, 2.8, 2.1, and 2.0.  In the short 2020 season his OPS was .814 and his overall WAR was an impressive 1.9.   His lifetime OPS is .684, but I'm pretty sure his 2015-2020 OPS with the Sox was about .770.    

[Bellhorn04]

35 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

I left something out.  The LA Dodgers also have the highest attendance in MLB and a much bigger fan base than the Sox.  They are in fact far more profitable and can therefore afford to spend more than the Sox.  A bidding war with the Dodgers for Mookie Betts would have been unwinnable.  

Estimated current franchise market values per Forbes:

Dodgers 4.8 billion

Red Sox 4.5 billion

Yes, the Dodgers are very rich, but the Red Sox ain't exactly struggling. 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

13 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

I saw that too.  The defense was ranked like 27th in 2004--but the others, as you say were pretty good.  

I

The '04 D was rank, all right. That's why Epstein went for gloves at the deadline. Nomar and his batting crowns were traded, replaced by Orlando Cabrera and his Gold Glove. Also acquired was Doug M's late-inning first-baseman's mitt (plus Dave Roberts' legs for pinch-cursebreaking). 

That Boston roster had historic bats -- seriously, eight batters with 85 or more RBIs in '03 -- but the braintrust determined they couldn't win it all without better defense. And it didn't start in July; before New Year's Eve they signed Pokey Reese as a back-up infielder... and only four players in the AL had a better dWAR in '04.

Balance.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

A lot of moaning and groaning, to say nothing of a sense of entitlement, on this thread. 

With perhaps the exception of giving away Babe Ruth, a truly great pitcher who turned out to be maybe the greatest hitter in MLB history, the Sox preference for offense over defense is also how they finally ended the 86 year drought and won the WS in 2004, 2007, 2013, and 2018 (the best Sox team in history).  

In 2004 they led MLB in runs scored, in 2007 they were 3d, in 2013 first again, and first again in 2018.  Good hitting wins games, even titles.  Gotta have good pitching too, but defense is a distant third.  

These days, as I will remind all of you relentlessly, one half of every MLB roster is composed of pitchers, whose only job is defense.  I personally think pitching in MLB is extremely hard to do and so agree with the notion of 13 pitchers even though only one pitcher can be on that mound at a time.  In any case, pitching is far and away the most important part of a team's defense.  

All of the scoring, on the other hand, depends on the 13 lineup players, who also play defense.  Fortunately, the average MLB player can be counted on not to commit an error roughly 97% of the time.  Not so at the plate, where he can expect to get a hit maybe 27% of the time and something else--an out, a walk, an HBP, a hit ball leading to an error--83% of the time.  

Because of the above numbers, the Sox have always preferred "good hit, adequate field" over "inadequate hit, good field" at every position.  Thus during the John Henry era, the one with the four WS wins, the longest serving SS has been Xander Bogaerts.  Thus is Devers, a subpar third baseman, the guy with the big contract. 

I would be remiss if I didn't also note the Sox have had some excellent defensive players--Pedey, JBJ, JD Drew, Ellsbury almost, Alex Gonzalez and Jose Iglesias at SS, and a bunch of others.  Even this season I think both Duran and Rafaela are standouts on a team that, granted, is dead last in MLB in fielding percentage.

It therefore infuriates me read about how important the freaking defense is when in fact the only reason why the Sox are above .500 is that those same lineup players have the Sox ranked 6th in MLB in runs scored.  The pitching, measured by team ERA, is ranked 21st.  

 

First, I will say I am not saying defense is even close to the value of batting or pitching, and I'm not sure who you are talking about . To say we "MAY HAVE" lost 15 games "IN PART" to poor defense is an accurate statement. It might be more like 25, if you count no error runs allowed. Yes, we have won some games due to good defense or poor D by the opps, too. (I thought that was a given and did not need to be stated.)

Now, although ERA measures "earned runs," I ask how many earned runs were preventable? Every team sees some runs score on plays not called an error, but clearly a makeable play not made leads to many runs scored over a season for all teams- some way more than others.

It's unclear how many of these runs have scored, but am 100% certain we allowed more than the norm, and likely bottom 3-5 in MLB, despite the plus OF defense. Our ERA is ranked 21st, but where would it be ranked with a plus D?

Here's a glimpse at whatour ERA might have been with good D:

9th SIERA (3.93) a measure based on taking out the defensive aspect of pitching outcomes.

10th in xFIP (4.03)

14th in ERA- (97, which is 3% better than the norm) which factors in defense, park and I think strength of opponents.

Go ahead and tell me all three of these stats that show defense matters with pitching results are wrong or overblown. Maybe they are overblown, but defense makes a big difference. NOT AS MUCH as pitching or batting, but it matters, a lot. Not freakishly a lot, but a lot.

You ask a staff ranked between 10th and 15th to get 120 more outs, maybe 20-30 more than the norm or 50-60 more than the best defensive team in MLB, and watch the staff struggle. Watch the added pitch counts and IP take it's toll on starters and relievers. Watch the Sox staff implode right before your eyes.

No way is defense solely responsible for the team's implosion or the pitching staff's woes. Of course, it does not. It's not the D watching Crawford head towards 30 HRs allowed, but the defense matters, and it matters a lot.

IMO, a bad play in a key situation has a tremendous negative effect on a team's psyche and morale. Yes, so does a home run or a HR allowed. So does a great defensive play on the flip side. I get that.

Outs Above Average:

-20 BOS

+33 KCR

You don't think 53 less outs made by our D over KC's might mean we have a better record than KCR?

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Estimated current franchise market values per Forbes:

Dodgers 4.8 billion

Red Sox 4.5 billion

Yes, the Dodgers are very rich, but the Red Sox ain't exactly struggling. 

 

Their TV contract blows everyone else away.

[moonslav59]

What I find interesting is that our 2024 team xFIP is 5th best since 2003:

3.87 2014

3.89 2013

3.91 2017

3.92 2018

4.03 2024 (Our  4.24 ERA ranks 11th)

4.07 2021

(2004 was 14th at 4.21 and 2007 was 18th out of 22 at 4.28)

 

[Maxbialystock]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

It's not a bidding war if you sign the extension before Mookie becomes a FA. 

Also, there are payroll restrictions on all ballclubs. The reason LA has an advantage in FA has more to do with the entertainment business, weather and closer proximity to the Asian market. 

I assumed Mookie had an agent, but I guess you're right that he didn't and therefore would have been fine with an extension for peanuts. 😉 I do like your points about the LA opportunities.  

[Maxbialystock]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Their TV contract blows everyone else away.

By "their" I assume you mean the Dodgers and not the Sox.  

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Maxbialystock said:

I assumed Mookie had an agent, but I guess you're right that he didn't and therefore would have been fine with an extension for peanuts. 😉 I do like your points about the LA opportunities.  

I guess every player that has signed an extension doesn’t have an agent?

[jung]

8 hours ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Makes one wonder if 2018 becomes the new 1918.

I was wondering something else. This Red Sox edition reminds me of the team that punished me through the 50's and 60's. Nasty baseball that was. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

By "their" I assume you mean the Dodgers and not the Sox.  

$8 Billion/ 25 year deal. ($320M/yr)

I think the Sox make about $95-100M a year off NESN. 

That's a heck of a lot of spending money, each year.

[mvp 78]

 

[notin]

On 8/28/2024 at 10:03 AM, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Makes one wonder if 2018 becomes the new 1918.

As it enters its seventh season, this is already the third longest title drought in franchise history, trailing only the 9 year drought from 1903-1912 and one other, probably insignificant one…

[mvp 78]

The Red Sox have only won more recently than the hapless Bruins. I think it would take a plane crash for the Bruins to get passed the second round of the playoffs at this point. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

The Red Sox have only won more recently than the hapless Bruins. I think it would take a plane crash for the Bruins to get passed the second round of the playoffs at this point. 

The Bruins don't allow any runs, though.

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The Bruins don't allow any runs, though.

Bruins went nutty on a goalie that can't get out of the 1st round.