A Realistic View at 2024: Part III

[Bellhorn04]

So last night, Imanaga* tossed 7 no-hit innings and Eovaldi** beat the Yankees again.

*2024 Interest Kings reported serious interest

** 2023 Interest Kings reported serious interest

[moonslav59]

57 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If the defense for the 2023 was better, we would have won 8 more games so we're not going to change the defense at all except hope that Trevor Story stays healthy for the year. If that happens, we'll have to move our best defensive player off their best position and really screw with things! It'll be kinda fun! 

Story is the BIG IF, but him staying healthy for a full season greatly improves the SS defense AND...

CF: as not Rafaela plays FT CF.

LF: as now Duran plays FT LF, with no more Ref misjudging flyballs, there.

2B: might be improved as DHam and Romy no longer need to play SS, and are better at 2B than EValdez and Grissom were in 2024.

I hope we can improve Catcher D, but that depends on Wong improving as he turns 29 and or Teel or whoever the back-up catcher is does better than McGuire/Jansen.

Corner IF looks to be the same, although Devers and Casas are wildly inconsistent, so it could go either way.

Abreu in RF looks to stay the same... kinda meh, IMO. If Anthony plays RF, instead of Ref, we might gain some there.

C: bottom 5-10

1B: bottom 20-25

2B: average

SS top 5-10

3B: bottom 20-30

LF: top 5

CF: top 5

RF: top 10-20

Overall: maybe neat average.

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

So last night, Imanaga* tossed 7 no-hit innings and Eovaldi** beat the Yankees again.

*2024 Interest Kings reported serious interest

** 2023 Interest Kings reported serious interest

He and Lugo, as well as my late enthusiasm for Monty (after Gio's injury) were my fave choices, last winter.

It was a pretty good year for signings between $15-18M AAV.... just not Gio.

[dgalehouse]

   The Mets look like a really good team. Much improved from earlier in the season. If they can reach the post season, they will be very dangerous. 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

21 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

Despite everything, the Sox are still in the race, along with maybe five other teams,  for the third wild card . None of the teams are very good or deserving of being in the playoffs, but it is what it is. The opportunity is still there for the taking.  The Sox have three games coming up with the Pale Hose . They can't possibly lose any of those, can they ? After that is is mostly divisional play in the home stretch. So, it's not over yet. 

They're closer to last place in the division than they are to a WC spot.

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

They're closer to last place in the division than they are to a WC spot.

Closer to 12th best in the AL than a WC or top 6 slot.

Closer to the 7th worst record in MLB than than 14th best.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Closer to 12th best in the AL than a WC or top 6 slot.

Closer to the 7th worst record in MLB than than 14th best.

Again, closer to last place in the division than they are to the WC. 

Couple that with their recent performance and it's a pretty bleak picture.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Again, closer to last place in the division than they are to the WC. 

Couple that with their recent performance and it's a pretty bleak picture.

Yes, I saw that and added to it. To me, closer to 7th worst vs 14 best is even worse, since we are in a tough division with no horrific teams.

[dgalehouse]

None of that matters. The only objective now is to win the third wild card. That is still possible because the other contenders are not very good either.

[jung]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Story is the BIG IF, but him staying healthy for a full season greatly improves the SS defense AND...

CF: as not Rafaela plays FT CF.

LF: as now Duran plays FT LF, with no more Ref misjudging flyballs, there.

2B: might be improved as DHam and Romy no longer need to play SS, and are better at 2B than EValdez and Grissom were in 2024.

I hope we can improve Catcher D, but that depends on Wong improving as he turns 29 and or Teel or whoever the back-up catcher is does better than McGuire/Jansen.

Corner IF looks to be the same, although Devers and Casas are wildly inconsistent, so it could go either way.

Abreu in RF looks to stay the same... kinda meh, IMO. If Anthony plays RF, instead of Ref, we might gain some there.

C: bottom 5-10

1B: bottom 20-25

2B: average

SS top 5-10

3B: bottom 20-30

LF: top 5

CF: top 5

RF: top 10-20

Overall: maybe neat average.

Correct me if I am wrong but your outlook appears to hinge on Story staying healthy. I would not bet the house on that. You might end up out in the cold.

I actually do not think Story can stay healthy and  don't think 2025 hinges on it either. Our pitching SUCKs and it SUCKS right where ML baseball as played today can't SUCK....the bullpen. 

We have plenty of developing everyday players IMO. We do not have a team leader. Its not Rafi and its not going to be Casas or Duran. This team will need a team leader that plays every day, wants the roll and can fit into the roll. IMO we should get rid of our current DH and get a new DH to both fill the role of DH and be the team leader.

[mvp 78]

The only guy I've heard mentioned that has leadership qualities is Kyle Teel. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, jung said:

Correct me if I am wrong but your outlook appears to hinge on Story staying healthy. I would not bet the house on that. You might end up out in the cold.

I actually do not think Story can stay healthy and  don't think 2025 hinges on it either. Our pitching SUCKs and it SUCKS right where ML baseball as played today can't SUCK....the bullpen. 

We have plenty of developing everyday players IMO. We do not have a team leader. Its not Rafi and its not going to be Casas or Duran. This team will need a team leader that plays every day, wants the roll and can fit into the roll. IMO we should get rid of our current DH and get a new DH to both fill the role of DH and be the team leader.

Yes, the big step forward on D at 2-3 positions depends solely on Story playing FT SS, near 150 games. I suppose Mayer and Story combining for 150-160 might come close.

Like you, I think it can happen.  I also agree on the need for a real leader, and not these one year guys like Turner.

I will add that people said this same thing starting in 2019 to 2020'ish, when we still had Bogey, JD and other vets, like Nate. I'm not sure we have anyone on the roster or in the system, either, that can be "that guy." It usually is an everyday player. Sometimes, a team can have several leaders, at once. I think 2004 was like that.

Good post, jung.

[moonslav59]

To have any hope for the 2024, we need to start by sweeping the CWS, perhaps the worst team in MLB history. Here is what lies ahead of us:

3 v CWS

3 v BAL

4 @ NYY

OFF DAY

3 @ TBR

3 v MIN (might need a sweep to catch these guys.)

3 @ TOR (might determine who finishes last)

OFF DAY

3 v TBR

It's not an easy schedule. 22 games to play and 5.5 GB a WC slot. Not much room to spare. No room for handing any wins away.

Gotta pull it all together. Not sure we can, but I'm still watching every minute of every game and hoping like hell we can get back to winning.

 

 

[Old Red]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

To have any hope for the 2024, we need to start by sweeping the CWS, perhaps the worst team in MLB history. Here is what lies ahead of us:

3 v CWS

3 v BAL

4 @ NYY

OFF DAY

3 @ TBR

3 v MIN (might need a sweep to catch these guys.)

3 @ TOR (might determine who finishes last)

OFF DAY

3 v TBR

It's not an easy schedule. 22 games to play and 5.5 GB a WC slot. Not much room to spare. No room for handing any wins away.

Gotta pull it all together. Not sure we can, but I'm still watching every minute of every game and hoping like hell we can get back to winning.

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

With seven opponents left, the Red Sox have a decent chance to win one game in each series.

They might have to beat the White Sox twice, though, to reach the annual goal of 78 Ws...

... so this series this weekend is crucial!

The White socks with holes in their toes vs. the Red socks with holes in their soles.

[Bellhorn04]

I think just about anything is possible in this series.  

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think just about anything is possible in this series.  

The wildcard race has gotten a lot more crowded. Misery loves company. 

[Bellhorn04]

The Red Sox have lost 28 of their last 45.  They just flat out suck in every area right now.  Martin and Jansen pitching like crap was the icing on the cake.  The White Sox have a shot at winning this series.

[Old Red]

42 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Red Sox have lost 28 of their last 45.  They just flat out suck in every area right now.  Martin and Jansen pitching like crap was the icing on the cake.  The White Sox have a shot at winning this series.

Plus friendly Fenway hasn’t been to friendly to the Red Sox either.

[Bellhorn04]

16 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Plus friendly Fenway has been to friendly to the Red Sox either.

I'll say.  31-38 with a -46 run differential.  Hard to believe, really.

But we must remember that even if the team sucks to an embarrassing degree, fans always get the Fenway Experience.  And there are affordable tickets for students.

 

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Red Sox have lost 28 of their last 45.  They just flat out suck in every area right now.  Martin and Jansen pitching like crap was the icing on the cake.  The White Sox have a shot at winning this series.

Just horrible. What makes it worse, if we went 22-23, instead of 17-28, we'd be here:

-4.5 BAL (32-35 in last 67)

-4.0 NYY (19-25 in their last 44)

Tied MIN (13-16 & 5-11, recently)

+0.5 KCR (41-43 in their last 84 & 4-9 in last 13)

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Just horrible. What makes it worse, if we went 22-23, instead of 17-28, we'd be here:

-4.5 BAL (32-35 in last 67)

-4.0 NYY (19-25 in their last 44)

Tied MIN (13-16 & 5-11, recently)

+0.5 KCR (41-43 in their last 84 & 4-9 in last 13)

All the other teams could say the same thing if we just went so, and so we would be in. A crowed backfield all looking for playing time, but no one is playing all that good. Sounds like FUN to me.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Most AL contenders have the same basic flaw: lights-ON bullpens. No one trusts Kimbrel or Holmes in Baltimore or New York. Minny and KC have nothing special at the back end, either. Houston has Hader, but he's allowed 10 homers in 60 IP.

Watch out for Cleveland, though, in the playoffs: three relievers with sub-1 WHIPs, another at 1.006... and then there's closer Clase and his ERA -- 0.70.

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Most AL contenders have the same basic flaw: lights-ON bullpens. No one trusts Kimbrel or Holmes in Baltimore or New York. Minny and KC have nothing special at the back end, either. Houston has Hader, but he's allowed 10 homers in 60 IP.

Watch out for Cleveland, though, in the playoffs: three relievers with sub-1 WHIPs, another at 1.006... and then there's closer Clase and his ERA -- 0.70.

Dominguez has already supplanted Kimbrel as the O's closer.

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Dominguez has already supplanted Kimbrel as the O's closer.

He's done okay in 15 IP, but 3.70 and a 1.250 WHIP since 2019 is nothing special. The 3.6 BB/9 is a worry, too.

[Bellhorn04]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He's done okay in 15 IP, but 3.70 and a 1.250 WHIP since 2019 is nothing special. The 3.6 BB/9 is a worry, too.

Yes, 5Gloves is right, Baltimore and the Yanks both have serious closer issues.

[moonslav59]

Will Duran (.877) pass Devers (.898) in OPS, this year?

Rankings among batters with 375+ PAs:

12. Devers .898

16. Duran .877

18. O'Neill .862

26. Abreu .824

[mvp 78]

It would be more about Devers falling below Duran than Duran passing Devers IMO. 

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It would be more about Devers falling below Duran than Duran passing Devers IMO. 

Probably/Maybe:

+.022 Duran since AUG 15

-.047 Devers same time period

[Bellhorn04]

Devers is playing hurt and it shows.  They'll probably have to shut him down soon.