Bello and Rafaela Extensions

[Hugh2]

I think the idea was to have extended him 2-3 years ago, maybe to age 32 or 33, at a less cost than he will get now.

 

At that time it wasn't looking great, and players usually don't improve like he did on defense. I'm totally ok not taking a chance to get some more years of him in his 30's.

 

His best skill is still his speed, and that is the first skill to decline.

[moonslav59]

At that time it wasn't looking great, and players usually don't improve like he did on defense. I'm totally ok not taking a chance to get some more years of him in his 30's.

 

His best skill is still his speed, and that is the first skill to decline.

 

Agreed. Nobody was for a Duran extension even 2 years ago. Many had doubts 2023 might have been a fluke.

 

That's why it's risky with extensions before knowing who the player will be.

 

I hope we guessed right on Rafaela and Bello. The early returns look mixed.

[mvp 78]

Agreed. Nobody was for a Duran extension even 2 years ago. Many had doubts 2023 might have been a fluke.

 

That's why it's risky with extensions before knowing who the player will be.

 

I hope we guessed right on Rafaela and Bello. The early returns look mixed.

 

It's not risky if the extensions are good values unlike the Rafaela and Bello extensions which rely on the players getting better.

[moonslav59]

It's not risky if the extensions are good values unlike the Rafaela and Bello extensions which rely on the players getting better.

 

When you extend players at their points in development, it is sometimes is about assuming they get better as they near prime.

 

With Bello, I think they'd have been happy if he just pitched like 2023, for the remainder of the deal. He did have a 3.2 bWAR and 1.6 fWAR in 2023. Fangraphs had a lower WAR and claimed his FA value was $12.8M and is $4M, so far for 2024.

 

[Dipre]

It's not risky if the extensions are good values unlike the Rafaela and Bello extensions which rely on the players getting better.

 

Rafaela is a good bet to provide value on defense alone though.

[Bellhorn04]

It's not risky if the extensions are good values unlike the Rafaela and Bello extensions which rely on the players getting better.

 

It's tricky stuff. If you wait for them to prove themselves the price tag can escalate pretty quickly.

 

What's the exactly right time to do it?

[Dipre]

It's tricky stuff. If you wait for them to prove themselves the price tag can escalate pretty quickly.

 

What's the exactly right time to do it?

 

It's an art, not a science.

[Bellhorn04]

It's an art, not a science.

 

Or both - like what us accountants and lawyers do.

[Dipre]

Or both - like what us accountants and lawyers do.

 

Some aspects of law are science, not art. But litigation is indeed, more art than science. Administrative stuff (setting up SRLs, which is the dominican version of an LLC, mutual consent divorces, and land deed transfers) are very much science, which is why they are generally boring.

[Bellhorn04]

Some aspects of law are science, not art. But litigation is indeed, more art than science. Administrative stuff (setting up SRLs, which is the dominican version of an LLC, mutual consent divorces, and land deed transfers) are very much science, which is why they are generally boring.

 

Accounting is the same. Following all the rules and regulations and standards can be deadly boring. It's only when you get to be a little creative and play in the margins a bit to the advantage of your client that you feel like you're doing something worthwhile.

[Dipre]

Accounting is the same. Following all the rules and regulations and standards can be deadly boring. It's only when you get to be a little creative and play in the margins a bit to the advantage of your client that you feel like you're doing something worthwhile.

 

A cousin of mine is the black sheep of the family, and he had the Nobel prize-level idea to break into the business of one of his clients (he installs security cameras, so the irony is not lost on me), to steal car parts for a clunker he decided to buy, as his clients owns a mechanic and parts shop. The guys he was with bolted, as they'd broken in before and the guy was on the lookout. He got caught, dude went at him with a machete, hit him in the head with a cinder block, and left him for dead. Because my cousin is an *******, and *******s are hard to kill, he's alive an kicking, and I'm left to manage his case and it's an interesting one. The police showed up and took money so the owner of the shop could beat him up, and they also caught him outside the property. This opens many areas of possible defense. This is the artsy part of law.

[mvp 78]

Rafaela is a good bet to provide value on defense alone though.

 

Provide value sure. However, he's overpaid and they should have just went year to year with him. Defensive guys don't get big ARB deals.

[Bellhorn04]

Provide value sure. However, he's overpaid and they should have just went year to year with him. Defensive guys don't get big ARB deals.

 

He's been contributing some on offense too, no?

[sk7326]

Provide value sure. However, he's overpaid and they should have just went year to year with him. Defensive guys don't get big ARB deals.

 

Maybe - but it is hard to see how either of those deals won't end up positive value for the team.

[moonslav59]

Maybe - but it is hard to see how either of those deals won't end up positive value for the team.

 

Agreed. It’s hard to know what they would have gotten in arbs, but getting the extra years is what we hope will be the kicker!

[notin]

Maybe - but it is hard to see how either of those deals won't end up positive value for the team.

 

Many have probably forgotten bout the 5 year $25mill extension given to this former Sox player

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lansimi01.shtml

 

And that was back in the late 1990's, when that was not exactly utility infielder money...

[mvp 78]

He's been contributing some on offense too, no?

 

661 OPS is some I guess?

[Bellhorn04]

661 OPS is some I guess?

 

The OPS has been going up. He has pop and he has speed.

[mvp 78]

The OPS has been going up. He has pop and he has speed.

 

It's nice that it's going up. Being under 600 was less than ideal!

[notin]

The OPS has been going up. He has pop and he has speed.

 

He has soda and amphetamines??!?!

[moonslav59]

The OPS has been going up. He has pop and he has speed.

 

.818 in his last 103 PAs or one month.

 

While that sample size is still kinda small, it’s a big chunk of 2024.

[moonslav59]

It's nice that it's going up. Being under 600 was less than ideal!

 

It was .546 over a 148 PA sample size, which is a longer stretch than this recent good stretch, but the recency factor is often used on this site.

[mvp 78]

Rafaela's xWOBA is 259 or bottom 3% in the league. All offensive stats are bottom third or worse (most bottom fifth). He's been lucky in this recent stretch IMO.

 

818 over the past 103 PA's, but if you break it down:

 

1040 last 43 PA's

663 previous 60 PA's

 

He's really just been on a roll since the Phillies series.

[moonslav59]

Rafaela's xWOBA is 259 or bottom 3% in the league. All offensive stats are bottom third or worse (most bottom fifth). He's been lucky in this recent stretch IMO.

 

818 over the past 103 PA's, but if you break it down:

 

1040 last 43 PA's

663 previous 60 PA's

 

He's really just been on a roll since the Phillies series.

 

Good data dig.

 

With his glove, I think .663 is okay.

 

I think he will improve as he ages.

 

I won’t mention rbis because it is not a skill set.

[sk7326]

Good data dig.

 

With his glove, I think .663 is okay.

 

I think he will improve as he ages.

 

I won’t mention rbis because it is not a skill set.

 

The thing is he has been terrible at SS defensively while as advertised in CF ... and I imagine that has hurt some of his development all around. I don't blame the Sox for doing it - Cora is trying to win games - but it is what it is.

 

If he stays at CF full time and can put up a .700 OBP with the power he has, that's a solid starter. He is also a guy who HAS shown improvement at each stop up the ladder.

[mvp 78]

Good data dig.

 

With his glove, I think .663 is okay.

 

I think he will improve as he ages.

 

I won’t mention rbis because it is not a skill set.

 

I agree about RBI and I do hope he figures it out and can be more than a #9 hitter. I believe more in Rafaela than Bello.

[moonslav59]

The thing is he has been terrible at SS defensively while as advertised in CF ... and I imagine that has hurt some of his development all around. I don't blame the Sox for doing it - Cora is trying to win games - but it is what it is.

 

If he stays at CF full time and can put up a .700 OBP with the power he has, that's a solid starter. He is also a guy who HAS shown improvement at each stop up the ladder.

 

Well said. Despite his batting approach, he has kept surprising people with decent offensive numbers. They kept saying, wait till AA, wait till…

 

No doubt, MLB is a tougher cookie to crack, but he seems to find ways.

[moonslav59]

I agree about RBI and I do hope he figures it out and can be more than a #9 hitter. I believe more in Rafaela than Bello.

 

Bello has done nothing to help his projections.

[mvp 78]

@itsbrianbarrett

Bello

 

Lasts 8 starts

 

10.6% walk rate - 75th of 78 qualifiers during that stretch

 

.311 OBA - 77th

 

1.79 WHIP - 78th

 

7.49 ERA - 78th

 

5.14 FIP - 69th

[Maxbialystock]

@itsbrianbarrett

Bello

 

Lasts 8 starts

 

10.6% walk rate - 75th of 78 qualifiers during that stretch

 

.311 OBA - 77th

 

1.79 WHIP - 78th

 

7.49 ERA - 78th

 

5.14 FIP - 69th

 

Interesting and probably valid. My only new thought is that historically the Sox minor league system has not been good at developing good young starters, especially during the JH era. Thus the hefty contracts to bring in starters from elsewhere.

 

So maybe Bello is about par for the course.

 

Given the new Boston pitching coach, it's worth noting that in his first 5 starts this season Bello went 26.2 innings while giving up 9 ER's for an ERA of 3.04.

 

Then he went on the IL for 3 weeks. When he returned on May 12, his ERA for May was 5.66 and for June 8.25. He has pitched the 3d most innings on the Sox, 71.1, and has the 3d most starts, 14.

 

His last 2 starts were both against the Jays. On the earlier start, he went 6 innings, giving up 2 runs--a quality start. Maybe the Jays learned something in the game 1.