2024 Red Sox Defense

[mvp 78]

The real problem with defense is that errors really become the only part fans can evaluate while watching a game on TV. Well, that and Web Gem type plays, although they can be misleading, too. But for the rest of the plays, we only see what the camera lets us.

 

That's why I like DRS, OAA and UZR. granted, they don't always agree, but really, they don't measure the same things anyway. And for team defense, I don't like Defensive Efficiency, which can be a worthless stat since ballparks can drastically effect the numbers on balls in play hit into the outfield...

 

It's hard for me to single out which defensive metric I prefer because I never know which one I need for the current argument. However, I've read a lot of arguments against OAA for IFers and that small samples of DRS are extremely skewed. I really don't look at UZR/150 much anymore.

 

I can say quite certainly that any OF that included both Manny and Wily Mo was going to be s***. That the Sox put Wily Mo in the OF for 154 games is wild in retrospect.

 

The original argument of "well they had good fielding SS's in 06, but got worse" ignores what happened with the rest of the ballclub at the time.

[moonslav59]

It's hard for me to single out which defensive metric I prefer because I never know which one I need for the current argument. However, I've read a lot of arguments against OAA for IFers and that small samples of DRS are extremely skewed. I really don't look at UZR/150 much anymore.

 

I can say quite certainly that any OF that included both Manny and Wily Mo was going to be s***. That the Sox put Wily Mo in the OF for 154 games is wild in retrospect.

 

The original argument of "well they had good fielding SS's in 06, but got worse" ignores what happened with the rest of the ballclub at the time.

 

Whatever happened to the "Zone" metric on fangraphs?

 

I really liked UZR/150, at first, but it does seem to have gone off the path, a bit.

 

Maybe a combination of DRA ranking and OAA ranking might be the best we can come up with.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The real problem with defense is that errors really become the only part fans can evaluate while watching a game on TV. Well, that and Web Gem type plays, although they can be misleading, too. But for the rest of the plays, we only see what the camera lets us.

 

That's why I like DRS, OAA and UZR. granted, they don't always agree, but really, they don't measure the same things anyway. And for team defense, I don't like Defensive Efficiency, which can be a worthless stat since ballparks can drastically effect the numbers on balls in play hit into the outfield...

 

Official scorers never give errors on incomplete double plays -- which is really a single play, only retiring the lead runner -- even if the return throw to first is bobbled, bounced, thrown away or just slow-hand late. The only way there's an E is if the batter or another baserunner advances on the miscue.

 

That's something that never shows up in the box score, but can kill a team if it's habit-forming -- giving opponents extra outs and opportunities to score, and tacking on untold extra pitches onto the arms of moundsmen...

 

The '04 Red Sox upgraded their defense as much as they could. The '03 club was 4th from the bottom in AL Defensive Efficiency, while the '04s finished 4th from the top. Boston's '03 line-up was monstrous at the plate: eight regulars with 85 or more RBI! So Epstein had the luxury of changing the DP combo of a team that won 101 games (including the postseason); replacing Nomar and Todd Walker -- who could both mash -- with Cabrera and Bellhorn... and it won the World Series.

 

Both Walker and Bellhorn had some pop, though Walker was a better hitter. He was also a negative dWAR second baseman, while Bellhorn was a positive dWAR...

[mvp 78]

Whatever happened to the "Zone" metric on fangraphs?

 

I really liked UZR/150, at first, but it does seem to have gone off the path, a bit.

 

Maybe a combination of DRA ranking and OAA ranking might be the best we can come up with.

 

IDK, the defensive metrics can be a bit much for me TBH. Mercurial and inscrutable at times.

[jad]

IDK, the defensive metrics can be a bit much for me TBH. Mercurial and inscrutable at times.

 

That must be why they are so popular on this and other boards. I wonder if batting average or ERA was once looked on w/ indifference or an eyeroll. (I doubt it, since these basic stats are generally, not always, intelligible to the average fan.)

[notin]

That must be why they are so popular on this and other boards. I wonder if batting average or ERA was once looked on w/ indifference or an eyeroll. (I doubt it, since these basic stats are generally, not always, intelligible to the average fan.)

 

I bet ERA was, especially when originally applied to starters. Of course this stat goes waaaay back but was originally created for relief pitchers since they already had a metric to measure starting pitchers - wins…

[dgalehouse]

I enjoy watching the ballgames. The won/loss records and the old, so-called baseball card stats are good enough for me. I understand that some fans like all of the relatively new metrics . I would just as soon leave that stuff to the analytics people and the scouts. But obviously, some fans are into that. To each his own.

[notin]

Official scorers never give errors on incomplete double plays -- which is really a single play, only retiring the lead runner -- even if the return throw to first is bobbled, bounced, thrown away or just slow-hand late. The only way there's an E is if the batter or another baserunner advances on the miscue.

 

That's something that never shows up in the box score, but can kill a team if it's habit-forming -- giving opponents extra outs and opportunities to score, and tacking on untold extra pitches onto the arms of moundsmen...

 

The '04 Red Sox upgraded their defense as much as they could. The '03 club was 4th from the bottom in AL Defensive Efficiency, while the '04s finished 4th from the top. Boston's '03 line-up was monstrous at the plate: eight regulars with 85 or more RBI! So Epstein had the luxury of changing the DP combo of a team that won 101 games (including the postseason); replacing Nomar and Todd Walker -- who could both mash -- with Cabrera and Bellhorn... and it won the World Series.

 

Both Walker and Bellhorn had some pop, though Walker was a better hitter. He was also a negative dWAR second baseman, while Bellhorn was a positive dWAR...

 

The stats people have never really come up with a way to account for a team beig inefficient at double plays. It's probably rolled into some larger more encompassing stat, but it is one area that might require more specialized attention.

 

Teams probably have ways to measure it, but it is largely unknown to those of us who have no real use for it, but would probably like it anyway...

[moonslav59]

The stats people have never really come up with a way to account for a team beig inefficient at double plays. It's probably rolled into some larger more encompassing stat, but it is one area that might require more specialized attention.

 

Teams probably have ways to measure it, but it is largely unknown to those of us who have no real use for it, but would probably like it anyway...

 

I'm pretty sure mental notes are taken every time a DP that should have been was not.

 

Team's probably have data entries on that as well.

 

They also must note plays not made that should have been, even if it's not called an error.

[Bellhorn04]

I enjoy watching the ballgames. The won/loss records and the old, so-called baseball card stats are good enough for me. I understand that some fans like all of the relatively new metrics . I would just as soon leave that stuff to the analytics people and the scouts. But obviously, some fans are into that. To each his own.

 

Reading a lot of the posts here the last couple of days makes me think I'm closer to an old school guy myself. All I really care about anymore is the Sox W-L record. I do think we have some smart guys running the team now (Breslow/Bailey/Cora) and I'm happy to let them figure everything out.

[moonslav59]

Reading a lot of the posts here the last couple of days makes me think I'm closer to an old school guy myself. All I really care about anymore is the Sox W-L record. I do think we have some smart guys running the team now (Breslow/Bailey/Cora) and I'm happy to let them figure everything out.

 

It's early, but I do think these guys know what their doing. (I'm sure they use a lot of metrics and their own data to determine what to do.)

 

I will say, I love watching baseball for the fun of it. I'm not thinking of numbers and metrics while enjoying the games on TV and occasionally live, here in Houston. I do enjoy stats and metrics, and probably way more than "traditional fans," but I loved playing the game and realize much of what the game is about has nothing to do with numbers.

 

Winning is certainly a big part of the level of enjoyment, but also just playing the game the right way and giving it your all is enough to help me through losing periods. Watching a losing team that is fundamentally unsound can be very difficult, but I try to focus on the few good players to get the enjoyment I need.

 

I have enjoyed this season, despite the lack of noticeable improvement on D. Some base-running blunders were painful to watch, too, but there are a lot of subplots going on with these players to bring enough interest and excitement for my viewing needs.

 

I hope that doesn't change, but Cora, Brez and Bailey seem to be very good at holding this together..

[Dipre]

The stats people have never really come up with a way to account for a team beig inefficient at double plays. It's probably rolled into some larger more encompassing stat, but it is one area that might require more specialized attention.

 

Teams probably have ways to measure it, but it is largely unknown to those of us who have no real use for it, but would probably like it anyway...

 

UZR has a double play component, but it's cumulative, so the margin for statistical noise is significant.

[mvp 78]

I enjoy watching the ballgames. The won/loss records and the old, so-called baseball card stats are good enough for me. I understand that some fans like all of the relatively new metrics . I would just as soon leave that stuff to the analytics people and the scouts. But obviously, some fans are into that. To each his own.

 

I think there is value in some of the new stats. The percentile stuff on Statcast is great IMO.

 

My Roman Empire is that it's badWAR and fabulousWAR.

[mvp 78]

Reading a lot of the posts here the last couple of days makes me think I'm closer to an old school guy myself. All I really care about anymore is the Sox W-L record. I do think we have some smart guys running the team now (Breslow/Bailey/Cora) and I'm happy to let them figure everything out.

 

I mean, you're basically TalkSox's Wavy Gravy, so yeah.

[jad]

Reading a lot of the posts here the last couple of days makes me think I'm closer to an old school guy myself. All I really care about anymore is the Sox W-L record. I do think we have some smart guys running the team now (Breslow/Bailey/Cora) and I'm happy to let them figure everything out.

 

I remember listening to a scout some time in the 60s(?), who when asked about stats said that the primary 'stat' for him in evaluating minor league pitchers (remember there were no 'advanced' stats in those days) wasn't ERA or Ks or innings, but WIN/LOSS.

[mvp 78]

I remember listening to a scout some time in the 60s(?), who when asked about stats said that the primary 'stat' for him in evaluating minor league pitchers (remember there were no 'advanced' stats in those days) wasn't ERA or Ks or innings, but WIN/LOSS.

 

And that's why dinosaurs no longer exist.

[Maxbialystock]

Reading a lot of the posts here the last couple of days makes me think I'm closer to an old school guy myself. All I really care about anymore is the Sox W-L record. I do think we have some smart guys running the team now (Breslow/Bailey/Cora) and I'm happy to let them figure everything out.

 

Old school????!!!!!

 

Vince had it right: winning isn't everything; it's the only thing.

 

And that is the point about this astounding season, at least the first 30 games. The Sox are 17-13, which projects--beware projections--to 91 freaking wins.

 

What's not to like, even to be enthusiastic about? In fact, the defensive struggles, combined with some weak hitting now and then and lousy baserunning, have only made the season that much more amazing.

 

To paraphrase the bard, "the pitching's the thing wherein we'll catch the center of the brass ring."

 

And let's not forget that last year Cora had to do an even tougher juggling act because he absolutely, positively did not start that season with 5 good starters. This year he's died and gone to heaven with a pitching stable, despite its instability, that has been the best in MLB for over a month and over 1/6 of a season.

[jad]

And that's why dinosaurs no longer exist.

 

Yeah, they really couldn't evaluate talent properly then. That's why they promoted Teddy who hit primarily for average, didn't strike out enough because of his amateurish launch angle, and had a crappy dWAR.

[Bellhorn04]

I remember listening to a scout some time in the 60s(?), who when asked about stats said that the primary 'stat' for him in evaluating minor league pitchers (remember there were no 'advanced' stats in those days) wasn't ERA or Ks or innings, but WIN/LOSS.

 

Aaaaagh. LOL.

[mvp 78]

Yeah, they really couldn't evaluate talent properly then. That's why they promoted Teddy who hit primarily for average, didn't strike out enough because of his amateurish launch angle, and had a crappy dWAR.

 

His launch angle put a hole in a poor man's straw hat!!!!

[Bellhorn04]

His launch angle put a hole in a poor man's straw hat!!!!

 

If it happened today that hat would be worth $200 K!

[jad]

His launch angle put a hole in a poor man's straw hat!!!!

 

In his book, he actually derides Bobby Doerr for his 'level swing', noting that the ball is coming at a downward angle and that the swing should match that angle for maximum efficiency. "But DOerr, no, he just doesn't listen."

Edited May 1, 2024 by jad

[notin]

Yeah, they really couldn't evaluate talent properly then. That's why they promoted Teddy who hit primarily for average, didn't strike out enough because of his amateurish launch angle, and had a crappy dWAR.

 

Before you go glorifying those 1939 MLB scouts too much, bear in mind Williams was helped out by being born white…

[notin]

If it happened today that hat would be worth $200 K!

 

And it would be taxable!!

[Bellhorn04]

In his book, he actually derides Bobby Doerr for his 'level swing', nothing that that the ball is coming at a downward angle and that the swing should match that angle for maximum efficiency. "But DOerr, no, he just doesn't listen."

 

I remember Ted criticizing Dwight Evans's swing angle for a similar reason.

[notin]

I remember Ted criticizing Dwight Evans's swing angle for a similar reason.

 

Everybody criticized Dwight Evans’ swing.

 

But it worked for him!

[Bellhorn04]

Everybody criticized Dwight Evans’ swing.

 

But it worked for him!

 

Zactly.

[moonslav59]

Everybody criticized Dwight Evans’ swing.

 

But it worked for him!

 

How about Gedman?

[notin]

How about Gedman?

 

Nothing worked for Gedman…

[mvp 78]

Nothing worked for Gedman…

 

Is that why he's a hitting coach?