Which FA Starter Who Has Been Signed Would You have Wanted for the Sox?

[mvp 78]

It's kinda funny. I guess looking at all the failures like the mixed-mess of 2020, Martin Perez, Richards, Martin Perez, again, and Kluber, performances like Wacha and Hill in 2022, look like Cy Youngs.

 

His record has been pretty good the last 2 years, and 127+ IP in both seasons is more than any other Sox pitcher from 2022-2023.

 

His 5.7 bWAR from 2022-2023 is pretty damn good. Fangraphs is not as kind.

 

Fangraphs on Wacha: (only 69 SP'ers had 250+ IP in the last 2 years- about 2 per team!)

 

4.1 fWAR 49th (0.4 below Stroman, 0.1 below Morton and 0.6 better than Nate. Giolito was at 2.8.)

 

3.26 ERA is 22nd! And that is what catches many fans eyes. (Better than Monty, Cease, Kirby, M Kelly, Strider and many more big name SP'ers.)

 

79 ERA- is 21st

 

4.23 xFIP is 52nd (slightly below Pivetta, Sandoval and Dunning & just ahead of Detmers.) 102 xFIP- is also 52nd

 

1.14 WHIP ranks 24th (better than Sonny Gray, Framber Valdez, Monty, Pablo Lopez, Nate and more.)

 

14.4% k%-BB% is 49th (near Stroman, Kelly and Singer)

 

One could ask, why so many write him off, while pumping up Giolito for his GS and IP.

 

2022-2023

346 IP Giolito (21st) This does have real value, but pitching well matters, too.

262 IP Wacha (64th)

 

GS

63 Giolito (17th) 5.5 IP per GS

47 Wacha (65th) 5.6 IP per GS

 

fWAR

4.1 Wacha

2.8 Giolito (and fangraphs is known for adding a lot of value for IP)

 

 

 

 

I thought you were the guy that was all about a 3 year sample size being the true measuring test?

 

21-23

 

Giolito: 6.9 fWAR

Wacha: 5.2 fWAR

[mvp 78]

Was it his 3.26 ERA that hurt, so much?

 

 

With a 4.47 xFIP.

[mvp 78]

For a team that needs IP more than anything else, that's a delusional take.

 

We specialize in those on here. Always have.

[Bellhorn04]

Giolito's numbers are all over the place. There's no way anyone can predict what he'll do in 2024.

[moonslav59]

For a team that needs IP more than anything else, that's a delusional take.

 

It's really "delusional" to like this over that?

 

4.89 ERA (4.70 FIP) in 346 IP

 

3.27 ERA (4.01 FIP) in 262 IP

 

Sure, we need a SP'er who goes 170+ IP over someone who goes 130+, but we have a bunch of pitchers who can give us 4.89.

 

2022-2023 Red Sox SP'ers ERA as a SP:

4.39 Bello

4.59 Crawford

4.76 Whitlock

4.85 Crawford

4.92 Houck

 

To me, it's a close call on Wacha vs Giolito, but it's not delusional to like either one over the other.

 

[Hugh2]

Giolito's numbers are all over the place. There's no way anyone can predict what he'll do in 2024.

 

I still can't get over hearing that he was hit with a divorce last summer. Right around the time he was traded.

 

If you look at his number from Chicago vs. everywhere else he looked like 2 different pitchers.

 

I know nothing, but if his performance down the stretch was due to personal issues, and he got right, I have to think we get the Giolito from the first 2/3 of the season. And that version looked more like a front-line starter than the guy who pitched down the stretch. So I'm convinced his performance issues were mental, and not due to injury or decline. If he can get right, I believe he will be good.

 

Sox could really really really use someone who offers the same upside as Giolito with more certainty, but in a vacuum, I like Giolito if he can get his head right.

[mvp 78]

It's really "delusional" to like this over that?

 

4.89 ERA (4.70 FIP) in 346 IP

 

3.27 ERA (4.01 FIP) in 262 IP

 

Sure, we need a SP'er who goes 170+ IP over someone who goes 130+, but we have a bunch of pitchers who can give us 4.89.

 

2022-2023 Red Sox SP'ers ERA as a SP:

4.39 Bello

4.59 Crawford

4.76 Whitlock

4.85 Crawford

4.92 Houck

 

To me, it's a close call on Wacha vs Giolito, but it's not delusional to like either one over the other.

 

 

In your 3 year sample that you berate people about:

 

Giolito 3.97 xFIP (sky falling on his performance) includes 140 more innings

Wacha 4.13 xFIP (why didn't we keep this guy?!?!?!)

[mvp 78]

Sox could really really really use someone who offers the same upside as Giolito with more certainty, but in a vacuum, I like Giolito if he can get his head right.

 

He received CY votes in 3 straight years. Wacha has never received a single CY vote. If the Sox can tap into something with Giolito, it's good news for '24. His ceiling is so much higher. He's also 3 years younger.

[Dipre]

In your 3 year sample that you berate people about:

 

Giolito 3.97 xFIP (sky falling on his performance) includes 140 more innings

Wacha 4.13 xFIP (why didn't we keep this guy?!?!?!)

 

I came here to post exactly this. I stated pretty clearly that Wacha's performance is very fielding dependent, no matter the sample. This is, at best, an average defensive team that needs IP more than anything else. Also, and I've said this before, 200 K starters don't grow on trees. If there's an anomaly to Giolito's performance, it's giving up 40 bombs. Any type of regression model you use has Giolito being better this year than he was last year, and almost certainly more valuable than Michael "Owie, missed another month" Wacha.

[moonslav59]

With a 4.47 xFIP.

 

I know you are big on xFIP, and it a very telling metric, but you also use fWAR a lot and value other numbers, too.

 

2022-2023:

xFIP

4.23 Wacha

4.08 Giolito

fWAR

4.1 Wacha (5.7 bWAR)

2.8 Giolito (3.3 bWAR)

ERA-

79 Wacha

119 Giolito (6th worst in MLB- 230 IP min)

WHIP

1.14 Wacha

1.37 Giolito

K%

21.3% Wacha

25.5% Giolito

BB%

6.9% Wacha (14.4 K%-BB%

9.0% Giolito (16.6 K%-BB%)

 

Do you really agree, it's delusional to think these two are about even with Wacha being slightly better?

 

At the risk of being accused or cherry-picking a time frame, here is my usual sample size chosen: last 3 years:

71 pitchers with 350 IP from 2021-2023

xFIP

4.15 Wacha (525 IP)

3.97 Giolito (369 IP)

fWAR

5.7 Wacha (5.2 bWAR

6.9 Giolito (7.6 bWAR

ERA-

88 Wacha

106 Giolito

K/BB

1.20 Wacha

1.58 Giolito

 

Giolito passes Wacha by adding just 1 more year to the sample size, but is trending in the wrong direction.

[mvp 78]

Giolito passes Wacha by adding just 1 more year to the sample size, but I'm excluding it because it refutes my point.

 

I know.

[moonslav59]

In your 3 year sample that you berate people about:

 

Giolito 3.97 xFIP (sky falling on his performance) includes 140 more innings

Wacha 4.13 xFIP (why didn't we keep this guy?!?!?!)

 

I'm not as high in FIP as you. I value ERA- and WAR more.

 

I just printed the 3 year numbers, and BTW, 4.13 would be better than about half of the Sox primarily SP'ers since 2021.

 

2021-2023 xFIP (Blue= Almost all IP as SP)

3.38 Whitlock (much as a RP)

3.57 Schreiber (the guy you have little faith in)

3.59 Sale (lack of IP hurts)

3.63 Nate (1 yr w TEX)

3.72 Houck (much as a RP)

3.89 ERod (2 yrs w DET)

3.96 Bello

(3.97 Giolito)

4.06 Pivetta

4.13 Wacha (2 yrs with others)

4.22 Wink (much as RP)

4.33 Perez (2 yrs w TEX)

4.38 Kluber ( 2 yrs w others)

4.53 Richards

4.56 R Hill (2 yrs w others)

5.63 Seabold (2 yrs w others. Last in MLB)

 

[moonslav59]

I know.

 

Is it delusional to favor Wacha over Giolito by a slim margin?

 

Both are big question marks for 2024.

[moonslav59]

I came here to post exactly this. I stated pretty clearly that Wacha's performance is very fielding dependent, no matter the sample. This is, at best, an average defensive team that needs IP more than anything else. Also, and I've said this before, 200 K starters don't grow on trees. If there's an anomaly to Giolito's performance, it's giving up 40 bombs. Any type of regression model you use has Giolito being better this year than he was last year, and almost certainly more valuable than Michael "Owie, missed another month" Wacha.

 

Wacha's numbers would have been better had he pitched for a better defensive team than BOS in 2022.

[Hitch]

He isn’t here any more. If he was still here, he’d be much less interesting…

 

Perfect.

[notin]

Wacha's numbers would have been better had he pitched for a better defensive team than BOS in 2022.

 

xFIP doesn’t rely on defense…

[Hitch]

I still can't get over hearing that he was hit with a divorce last summer. Right around the time he was traded.

 

If you look at his number from Chicago vs. everywhere else he looked like 2 different pitchers.

 

I know nothing, but if his performance down the stretch was due to personal issues, and he got right, I have to think we get the Giolito from the first 2/3 of the season. And that version looked more like a front-line starter than the guy who pitched down the stretch. So I'm convinced his performance issues were mental, and not due to injury or decline. If he can get right, I believe he will be good.

 

Sox could really really really use someone who offers the same upside as Giolito with more certainty, but in a vacuum, I like Giolito if he can get his head right.

 

Obviously impossible to know, but we forget these guys aren't robots. Divorce and being forced to moving your life to a new place - two of the more destabilising and stressful events of your life.

 

Trying to predict what Gio will give us is a massive waste of time.

[mvp 78]

I'm not as high in FIP as you. I value ERA- and WAR more.

 

I just printed the 3 year numbers, and BTW, 4.13 would be better than about half of the Sox primarily SP'ers since 2021.

 

2021-2023 xFIP (Blue= Almost all IP as SP)

3.38 Whitlock (much as a RP)

3.57 Schreiber (the guy you have little faith in)

3.59 Sale (lack of IP hurts)

3.63 Nate (1 yr w TEX)

3.72 Houck (much as a RP)

3.89 ERod (2 yrs w DET)

3.96 Bello

(3.97 Giolito)

4.06 Pivetta

4.13 Wacha (2 yrs with others)

4.22 Wink (much as RP)

4.33 Perez (2 yrs w TEX)

4.38 Kluber ( 2 yrs w others)

4.53 Richards

4.56 R Hill (2 yrs w others)

5.63 Seabold (2 yrs w others. Last in MLB)

 

 

If you need to use Richards, Kluber and Seabold to bolster your claim that Wacha is a good pitcher, I don't know what to say.

[mvp 78]

Obviously impossible to know, but we forget these guys aren't robots. Divorce and being forced to moving your life to a new place - two of the more destabilising and stressful events of your life.

Trying to predict what Gio will give us is a massive waste of time.

 

We don't have anything better to do right now though. There's nothing else going on. Nobody is in Ft Myers working out. No games. He's one of the most recent transactions so he'll be the hot button topic for a little while.

[Hitch]

We don't have anything better to do right now though. There's nothing else going on. Nobody is in Ft Myers working out. No games. He's one of the most recent transactions so he'll be the hot button topic for a little while.

 

No, I get that. It wasn't a criticism of how people spend their time, I was more just thinking out loud.

[Bellhorn04]

I came here to post exactly this. I stated pretty clearly that Wacha's performance is very fielding dependent, no matter the sample. This is, at best, an average defensive team that needs IP more than anything else. Also, and I've said this before, 200 K starters don't grow on trees. If there's an anomaly to Giolito's performance, it's giving up 40 bombs. Any type of regression model you use has Giolito being better this year than he was last year, and almost certainly more valuable than Michael "Owie, missed another month" Wacha.

 

While with Giolito, we're in the position of hoping it was his divorce that resulted in him being used for batting practice the last 2 months of 2023 and that he's all over that now.

[Dipre]

While with Giolito, we're in the position of hoping it was his divorce that resulted in him being used for batting practice the last 2 months of 2023 and that he's all over that now.

 

184.1 IP/204 K/ 5.27 FIP

 

At his worst, he's a reliable 5 on a good rotation, at his best, he's a CY candidate.

[Bellhorn04]

184.1 IP/204 K/ 4.43 FIP

 

At his worst, he's a reliable 5 on a good rotation, at his best, he's a CY candidate.

 

The 4.43 FIP was the number with the White Sox. For the full season it was 5.27.

[Dipre]

The 4.43 FIP was the number with the White Sox. For the full season it was 5.27.

 

I fixed it

[Dipre]

The 4.43 FIP was the number with the White Sox. For the full season it was 5.27.

 

For context, a 7 IP/ 4 ER start is a 5.14 ERA.

[moonslav59]

If you need to use Richards, Kluber and Seabold to bolster your claim that Wacha is a good pitcher, I don't know what to say.

 

No. I am using just your stat of choice, xFIP. I like the stat, but think it really hurts non-high K pitchers who get the job done. I value WAR, ERA- and ERA+ more than xFIP.. I also value WHIP and OPS Against as much as xFIP.

 

In these areas, Wacha compares much more favorably. I know you also value WAR, but have not used that in this discussion.

 

In your stat of choice, he falls about in the middle of Sox SP'ers over the last 2-3 years. Throw out Seabold and 4 were better- 4 were worse. That's his worst stat placement.

[mvp 78]

No. I am using just your stat of choice, xFIP. I like the stat, but think it really hurts non-high K pitchers who get the job done. I value WAR, ERA- and ERA+ more than xFIP.. I also value WHIP and OPS Against as much as xFIP.

 

In these areas, Wacha compares much more favorably. I know you also value WAR, but have not used that in this discussion.

 

In your stat of choice, he falls about in the middle of Sox SP'ers over the last 2-3 years. Throw out Seabold and 4 were better- 4 were worse. That's his worst stat placement.

 

Compares favorably to Richards, Seabold and Kluber. Ok? Those pitchers flat out sucked.

[Dipre]

No. I am using just your stat of choice, xFIP. I like the stat, but think it really hurts non-high K pitchers who get the job done. I value WAR, ERA- and ERA+ more than xFIP.. I also value WHIP and OPS Against as much as xFIP.

 

In these areas, Wacha compares much more favorably. I know you also value WAR, but have not used that in this discussion.

 

In your stat of choice, he falls about in the middle of Sox SP'ers over the last 2-3 years. Throw out Seabold and 4 were better- 4 were worse. That's his worst stat placement.

 

Any starter under 130 IP did not, in fact, get the job done.

[Hugh2]

Giolito and Wacha could easily provide similar value next year. But Giolitos upside is much much higher than Wachas.

[moonslav59]

Compares favorably to Richards, Seabold and Kluber. Ok? Those pitchers flat out sucked.

 

Yes, that was my point. (Perez not Seabold.)

 

In other areas besides xFIP, he was near or even better than many of the other SP'ers like Nate, Bello, Sale and ERod.

 

Look at ERA- vs all of 'em- he's 3rd

WHIP: He's tops in this stat

IP is above Sale and near ERod & Nate

 

3 years

IP

477 Pivetta (some as RP)

452 Perez (2 w TEX)

436 Nate (some w TEX)

429 R Hill (2 other teams)

401 ERod (2 yrs w DET)

386 Wacha (2 yrs elsewhere)

(I won't count Bello for obvious reasons)

170 Richards (113 as SP)

151 Sale

 

No doubt, the IP is not good, but...

.

ERA-

85 Nate

87 Sale

93 Wacha- a very decent number

93 ERod

99 Bello

(106 Giolito)

107 R Hill

112 Richards

117 Kluber

 

WHIP

1.17 Wacha

1.18 Nate

1.19 Sale

(1.28 Giolito)

1.29 ERod

1.30 Kluber

1.32 Pivetta

1.34 R Hill

1.39 Perez

1.45 Bello

1.66 Richards

 

Don't tell me WHIP and ERA- are meaningless stats.