A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[notin]

It’s a low bar, but possibly achievable. As I read a quote from one fan that they can handle a team with a losing record, and being last place in the Div, but what they can’t handle is not trying to get better.

 

I can understand that attitude…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

But they have the reigning AL Cy Young winner and the newly formed Judge-Soto-Stanton baseball mashing machine!

 

Yankee fans will turn on Verdugo the first time he jogs out a grounder. They already hate him from playing outfield and jawing at them as a Red Sox.

 

What are the chances he has an entire season of unblemished fan love... Dugie had a really good first half last season and couldn't even ride that wave of success.

[moonslav59]

Cooper just turned 33 and has been in decline for several seasons, in a row. He was a decent hitter: he may not be, anymore.

 

.852 '20

.845 '21

.752 '22

.724 '23 (as a 1Bman, that is low.)

 

He did still hit .904 vs lefties in '23, so let's hope Cora schedules the Casas days off when we face lefties. (He was .666 vs RHPs.)

 

Career:

.756 v R

.816 v L (per 650 PAs: .286 26 100 w/ .338 OBP)

[moonslav59]

Yankee fans will turn on Verdugo the first time he jogs out a grounder. They already hate him from playing outfield and jawing at them as a Red Sox.

 

What are the chances he has an entire season of unblemished fan love... Dugie had a really good first half last season and couldn't even ride that wave of success.

 

Maybe not having to run so much in the tiny RF at Yankee Stadium will give him that extra energy he needs to run out grounders.

 

[Old Red]

Yankee fans will turn on Verdugo the first time he jogs out a grounder. They already hate him from playing outfield and jawing at them as a Red Sox.

 

What are the chances he has an entire season of unblemished fan love... Dugie had a really good first half last season and couldn't even ride that wave of success.

 

Yes, but this is a contract year for him, so I see him going full throttle all year, and sticking it to the Red Sox in the process.

[moonslav59]

What is a better overall OF?

 

LF: O'Neill

CF: Duran

RF: Duvall

 

LF: Duran

CF: Michael A Taylor

RF: O'Neill

 

Subs: Refsnyder LF, Rafaela CF, Abreu RF

[mvp 78]

As it is a zero sum game, if the Sox get 5-10 games better, who gets 5-10 games worse?

 

The Pirates and Marlins who both swept them last year?

[mvp 78]

Let's get the T-shirts printed up: 79 WILL BE JUST FINE

 

If there is a clear path forward that we can believe in, I don't mind if the results don't show in the standings. We should be able to see the results in the minors and on the development of young players over the course of the year in BOS.

[mvp 78]

Cooper just turned 33 and has been in decline for several seasons, in a row. He was a decent hitter: he may not be, anymore.

 

.852 '20

.845 '21

.752 '22

.724 '23 (as a 1Bman, that is low.)

 

He did still hit .904 vs lefties in '23, so let's hope Cora schedules the Casas days off when we face lefties. (He was .666 vs RHPs.)

 

Career:

.756 v R

.816 v L (per 650 PAs: .286 26 100 w/ .338 OBP)

 

A one year deal for a weak side platoon bat is nothing to worry about. At some point, maybe that spot is taken over by Blaze Jordan (993 OPS vs LHP in '23).

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

What is a better overall OF?

 

LF: O'Neill

CF: Duran

RF: Duvall

 

LF: Duran

CF: Michael A Taylor

RF: O'Neill

 

Subs: Refsnyder LF, Rafaela CF, Abreu RF

 

You already know the answer -- especially on a team with a below-average starting rotation, where a good centerfielder is absolutely essential to even be competitive.

 

Duran is not the answer, and if he's there out of the gate, that tells you right away how the front office views 2024.

 

O'Neill and Duvall are corner men, not full-time, all-season CFers. If Rafaela's bat is so bad that they can't carry him, then bringing in a guy like Taylor would be a much better investment, record-wise, than Duvall.

[mvp 78]

What is a better overall OF?

 

LF: O'Neill

CF: Duran

RF: Duvall

 

LF: Duran

CF: Michael A Taylor

RF: O'Neill

 

Subs: Refsnyder LF, Rafaela CF, Abreu RF

 

Why bring Taylor in when you already have Rafaela? Aren't they the same profile?

[moonslav59]

If there is a clear path forward that we can believe in, I don't mind if the results don't show in the standings. We should be able to see the results in the minors and on the development of young players over the course of the year in BOS.

 

This does seem to be our best hope for a surprisingly good season. We can hope for a healthy Story. We can hope for career years from Devers, Yoshida, Duran, O'Neill, Wong and McGuire, and big improvements from 2023 with some pitchers, but I do think the kids offer our best hope.

 

Casas

Grissom

Rafaela & Abreu

EValdez (long shot)

 

Bello, Crawford, Campbell, Slaten, Mata, kelly and a few other pitchers.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Why bring Taylor in when you already have Rafaela? Aren't they the same profile?

 

Agreed, but Taylor hit 21 home runs off big league pitching last year.

 

Personally, I'd pencil Rafaela in CF all season in the majors, because he has nothing left to prove in the minors...

 

... especially, since Boston's outlook right now for '24 is so... challenging... plus, Ceddanne at minimum wage makes too much sense for a front office so concerned with cents.

[notin]

Why bring Taylor in when you already have Rafaela? Aren't they the same profile?

 

One is an established major leaguer. The other - not somuch.

 

Also Taylor can provide that missing RH bat. And it’s likely for just 1-2 years. Not like Rafaela would need to convert to pitching to get on the field…

[notin]

Agreed, but Taylor hit 21 home runs off big league pitching last year.

 

Personally, I'd pencil Rafaela in CF all season in the majors, because he has nothing left to prove in the minors...

 

... especially, since Boston's outlook right now for '24 is so... challenging... plus, Ceddanne at minimum wage makes too much sense for a front office so concerned with cents.

 

Maybe he could learn the strike zone?

[mvp 78]

@gingersnaphyde

Gonna miss my ginger brotherin Justin Turner. Solid bat & good guy. However, if the Red Sox are looking for a RHH vs LHP, Garrett Cooper is a solid + cheaper option.

 

Turner in 23’ vs LHP- .285/.372/.528, 142 WRC+, $13M

 

Cooper in 23’ vs LHP- .324/.375/.529, 145 WRC+, est $5-6M

[mvp 78]

Maybe he could learn the strike zone?

 

Michael A Taylor has a career 29.9% k rate.

 

Why should Rafaela learn now? When he tried to be more patient last season, his production dropped.

[mvp 78]

One is an established major leaguer. The other - not somuch.

 

Also Taylor can provide that missing RH bat. And it’s likely for just 1-2 years. Not like Rafaela would need to convert to pitching to get on the field…

 

JBJ part 2, but the lesser version. When's Taylor's decline?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Maybe he could learn the strike zone?

 

Right? Two years ago in AA and A, Rafaela only led the minors in extra base hits and had an .880 OPS.

 

Last year in AAA, he barely improved a hundred points for a .988 OPS.

[notin]

JBJ part 2, but the lesser version. When's Taylor's decline?

 

Not til Friday at the earliest.

 

The Sox can’t play the “well player A declined so we should avoid player B.” Especially not on 1-2 year deals. I’m sure that logic wouldn’t fly if the Sox decided “David Price didn’t work out so we need to avoid Blake Snell.” And in that case, it actually makes more sense.

 

Also if Taylor goes into decline, you still have Rafaela. There’s no law that Taylor has to keep playing…

[notin]

Right? Two years ago in AA and A, Rafaela only led the minors in extra base hits and had an .880 OPS.

 

Last year in AAA, he barely improved a hundred points for a .988 OPS.

 

 

So you’re saying he has mastered the strike zone? And we can ignore his 3.6:1 K:BB in the minors? And his 7:1 K:BB in the majors?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

So you’re saying he has mastered the strike zone? And we can ignore his 3.6:1 K:BB in the minors? And his 7:1 K:BB in the majors?

 

So I'm saying, why would a team with a horrid defense like Boston's need another Gold Glover who strikes out a lot to play centerfield... especially since it's been over five years since the last one they had (who also was the ALCS MVP and helped them win the World Series).

 

Who knows if his .900+ OPS at the final level below MLB will translate? I'm sure you know exactly 10 big leaguers had .900 or higher OPS last year, and none were centerfielders.

 

Is it worth a shot to see... for a fifth-place team?

[moonslav59]

@gingersnaphyde

Gonna miss my ginger brotherin Justin Turner. Solid bat & good guy. However, if the Red Sox are looking for a RHH vs LHP, Garrett Cooper is a solid + cheaper option.

 

Turner in 23’ vs LHP- .285/.372/.528, 142 WRC+, $13M

 

Cooper in 23’ vs LHP- .324/.375/.529, 145 WRC+, est $5-6M

 

If all we are looking at is LH'd splits, how about this guy?

 

.350/.409/.450 (.859 OPS) 136 wRC+ at min wage?

 

Career v LHP: .273/.338/.517/.855

 

Okay, Dalbec can't field for s***, but still....

[moonslav59]

Agreed, but Taylor hit 21 home runs off big league pitching last year.

 

Personally, I'd pencil Rafaela in CF all season in the majors, because he has nothing left to prove in the minors...

 

... especially, since Boston's outlook right now for '24 is so... challenging... plus, Ceddanne at minimum wage makes too much sense for a front office so concerned with cents.

 

At this point, I'd be fine giving Rafaela a long look at CF, with Abreu as his back-up (AAA?)

[moonslav59]

How about handing Refsnyder a 1Bman's mitt?

[moonslav59]

At this point, I'd be fine giving Rafaela a long look at CF, with Abreu as his back-up (AAA?)

 

Maybe the best part of Rafaela in CF is that it forces Duran to LF and Yoshida to DH, more often.

[mvp 78]

So you’re saying he has mastered the strike zone? And we can ignore his 3.6:1 K:BB in the minors? And his 7:1 K:BB in the majors?

 

He will NEVER master the strike zone. You get what you get with him. Why force something on him that will give you worse returns?

[mvp 78]

So you’re saying he has mastered the strike zone? And we can ignore his 3.6:1 K:BB in the minors? And his 7:1 K:BB in the majors?

 

Has Taylor mastered the strike zone?

[mvp 78]

If all we are looking at is LH'd splits, how about this guy?

 

.350/.409/.450 (.859 OPS) 136 wRC+ at min wage?

 

Career v LHP: .273/.338/.517/.855

 

Okay, Dalbec can't field for s***, but still....

 

He's the plan if nobody else is brought in.

[Dipre]

Let Rafaela swing!