A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[Old Red]

I'm all for a good trade. But let's say they trade for Burnes. He's only got one year left on his contract, so you'd probably have to overpay him to get him to sign an extension.

 

And of course to trade for a good pitcher who has years of control left, you have to part with serious prospect capital.

 

There are no cheap ways to get good pitchers.

 

When you can’t produce good young pitchers yourself then you have to pay somehow to get them. I wouldn’t trade for someone who only has 1 year of control left, and yes a young pitcher who has years of control left would cost some good prospects, which they only are at this point. I would rather spend the bigger bucks on position players.

[notin]

Yes, we've discussed that quite a bit here...

 

The other option is when you pick up pitchers other teams have released and see if they actually are any good. Despite that it can be quite successful, for some reason it infuriates fans despite that every single team does it…

[Bellhorn04]

The other option is when you pick up pitchers other teams have released and see if they actually are any good. Despite that it can be quite successful, for some reason it infuriates fans despite that every single team does it…

 

And what is our track record for obtaining good pitchers that way?

[notin]

And what is our track record for obtaining good pitchers that way?

 

Actually not so bad. Schreiber and Bernardino look good so far…

[notin]

And yet, that's never been the plan in Boston this century, in the Land of Buchholz (the Sox' last homegrown All-Star starter).

 

Wonder: if Leiter was still on the board in '21, do the Sox take him over Mayer? Texas did, and instead of drafting a guy described to have Seager-like talent, the Rangers signed the real Seager...

 

That’s because we are horribly impatient with younger pitchers.

 

We look at Kutter Crawford and say “ he’s a #5 and we don’t need one” or “he’s a reliever” as opposed to “he just finished his first season in MLB and was pretty good.”

 

Or we look at Tanner Houck and his career 5.8 bWAR at age 27 and insist he’s a reliever. And then advocate throwing millions upon millions at Jordan Montgomery, who did have all of 3.3 bWAR at age 27…

[Bellhorn04]

Actually not so bad. Schreiber and Bernardino look good so far…

 

With starters I don't think there has been much success...like, ever.

[Old Red]

With starters I don't think there has been much success...like, ever.

 

Luis Tiant.

[Bellhorn04]

That’s because we are horribly impatient with younger pitchers.

 

We look at Kutter Crawford and say “ he’s a #5 and we don’t need one” or “he’s a reliever” as opposed to “he just finished his first season in MLB and was pretty good.”

 

Or we look at Tanner Houck and his career 5.8 bWAR at age 27 and insist he’s a reliever. And then advocate throwing millions upon millions at Jordan Montgomery, who did have all of 3.3 bWAR at age 27…

 

You throw money at Montgomery because he has posted good numbers over 3 full seasons. He has proven he can do it, whereas Houck has not and has frankly gotten worse.

[Bellhorn04]

Luis Tiant.

 

Pretty good. You only had to go back half a century.

[moonslav59]

Wacha has been looking for $15mill AAV for 2 years now. Is $15mill the new price for a #5?

 

He'd be the #2 on 5-10 teams, the #3 on another 5-10 teams and the #4 on 5-10 of the remaining 15 teams.

[Old Red]

Pretty good. You only had to go back half a century.

 

I agree with you, but Luis is one of my all time favorites .

[moonslav59]

And if we pass on all the overpays, you'll be looking at the same rotation as last year's.

 

The stubbornness on overpaying for SP'ers has been a long-standing issue. I keep waiting for the next Price or Lackey, but I've lost hope.

[moonslav59]

Actually not so bad. Schreiber and Bernardino look good so far…

 

And we snagged Whitlock off Rule 5.

[moonslav59]

Pretty good. You only had to go back half a century.

 

Wakefield was our ace for some small stretches.

[notin]

You throw money at Montgomery because he has posted good numbers over 3 full seasons. He has proven he can do it, whereas Houck has not and has frankly gotten worse.

 

But after his first few years he was equally unimpressive as Houck, and yet some other team still gave him the chance to have those last 3 years. Think he would have gotten that in Boston?

[notin]

The stubbornness on overpaying for SP'ers has been a long-standing issue. I keep waiting for the next Price or Lackey, but I've lost hope.

 

Yes we definitely need to revisit those success stories…

[notin]

Wakefield was our ace for some small stretches.

 

Wakefield was a terrible relief pitcher, but was an amazing starter for a long time…

[notin]

My bold prediction is we trade Duran to the Marlins for a starter.

 

Right now BTV has Trevor Rogers as the closest match…

[Bellhorn04]

My bold prediction is we trade Duran to the Marlins for a starter.

 

Right now BTV has Trevor Rogers as the closest match…

 

That does have a decent chance of happening.

[Old Red]

You throw money at Montgomery because he has posted good numbers over 3 full seasons. He has proven he can do it, whereas Houck has not and has frankly gotten worse.

 

Monty is just to expensive for to long a time. I keep saying for two years now that Houck, and Whit are cheap options for the rotation, and that is why they are there more than anything else.

[Old Red]

My bold prediction is we trade Duran to the Marlins for a starter.

 

Right now BTV has Trevor Rogers as the closest match…

 

I don’t think Duran is as highly sought after as some think. He had a better year last year, but I’d want to see him do it again before I made any kind of investment in him.

[notin]

I don’t think Duran is as highly sought after as some think. He had a better year last year, but I’d want to see him do it again before I made any kind of investment in him.

 

Is Trevor Rogers too significant of an investment?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Monty is just to expensive for to long a time. I keep saying for two years now that Houck, and Whit are cheap options for the rotation, and that is why they are there more than anything else.

 

What's a long time? He's going to get five years -- say for $100M -- so is it worth it if he produces another three like his last three?

 

Is anyone a $33M AAV guy? The Mets thought a couple of 40ish were $40M men a year ago...

[Old Red]

What's a long time? He's going to get five years -- say for $100M -- so is it worth it if he produces another three like his last three?

 

Is anyone a $33M AAV guy? The Mets thought a couple of 40ish were $40M men a year ago...

I don’t think he will come that cheap though.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don’t think he will come that cheap though.

 

Of course not. The top starters will wait until the Yamamoto bidding breaks the $300M barrier, then the rest will "settle" for $200M.

[Old Red]

Of course not. The top starters will wait until the Yamamoto bidding breaks the $300M barrier, then the rest will "settle" for $200M.

 

I’ll pass, pass, and pass again.

[Old Red]

Is Trevor Rogers too significant of an investment?

 

It must not be if BTV says so.

[notin]

What's a long time? He's going to get five years -- say for $100M -- so is it worth it if he produces another three like his last three?

 

Is anyone a $33M AAV guy? The Mets thought a couple of 40ish were $40M men a year ago...

 

Oh Montgomery is getting more than 5 years and $100mill. Book it…

[notin]

It must not be if BTV says so.

 

So … no answer? Shocking…

[Old Red]

So … no answer? Shocking…

 

I don’t play with BTV, which isn’t shocking at all.