A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[mvp 78]

The only thing I know about Bailey as a pitching coach is what the media tells us the past month: that he greatly improved the San Fran staff in his years there.

 

But without going into a deep dive, I looked the 2023 Giants' stats: they literally had a three-man starting rotation -- three full-time starters who started 33, 28 and 19 games (that basically covers half their season schedule). But they had five others who were primarily relievers who started 10, 10, 11, 12, and 13.

 

In comparison, the '23 Red Sox with their doomed blooming openers featured five guys who started at least 19, plus swingman Pivetta, who started 16.

 

The word on YeahRod is that some interested MLB teams want him to start.

 

The Giants rotation was basically Logan Webb and a mishmash of veteran starters: Cobb, DeSclafani, Wood, Manea, Junis and Stripling. I think they ended up using openers out of necessity. If Harrison was ready sooner, he would have been in the rotation all year.

[moonslav59]

BTV accepts this deal: who is more likely to say no?

 

Whitlock, EValdez, Mata, Dalton Rogers

for

Shane Bieber (1 yr left) and Andres Gimenez (2B)

 

Also,

 

Crawford, Whitlock & Walter

for

Bieber, Hentges (LH RP) & Gimenez

 

Or, Crawford & Yorke for the same 3.

Edited November 29, 2023 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

BTV accepts this deal: who is more likely to say no?

 

Whitlock, EValdez, Mata, Dalton Rogers

for

Shane Bieber (1 yr left) and Andres Gimenez (2B)

 

Also,

 

Crawford, Whitlock & Walter

for

Bieber, Hentges (LH RP) & Gimenez

 

Or, Crawford & Yorke for the same 3.

 

Something was wrong with Bieber last year. I'd be worried that there are underlying concerns.

[harmony]

On Wednesday FanGraphs offered columnist Dan Szymborski's 2024 ZiPS projections for the Red Sox:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

The Red Sox look like an 80–86 win team or so. That kind of team can surprise, and with the coins flipping a bit different last year, they could have made a real wild card run. The Orioles, Blue Jays, and Rays are a clear tier above them, though, and when all is said and done by winter’s end, I think the Yankees may be as well.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

On Wednesday FanGraphs offered columnist Dan Szymborski's 2024 ZiPS projections for the Red Sox:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

 

"when all is said and done by winter's end, I think" ... the snow will melt.

 

Dan Szy can speculate the Yankees will splurge because Hal said they would, and I can speculate the Red Sox will "go full throttle" because Tom said they would.

 

Nobody knows nothing.

 

But at least everyone here knows notin.

[notin]

"when all is said and done by winter's end, I think" ... the snow will melt.

 

Dan Szy can speculate the Yankees will splurge because Hal said they would, and I can speculate the Red Sox will "go full throttle" because Tom said they would.

 

Nobody knows nothing.

 

But at least everyone here knows notin.

 

 

And notin thinks that 78-84 team could have flipped that record around if they played some quality defense…

[moonslav59]

Something was wrong with Bieber last year. I'd be worried that there are underlying concerns.

 

Agreed. There is talk he may need surgery. I think the issue was with his elbow.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And notin thinks that 78-84 team could have flipped that record around if they played some quality defense…

 

(edited) if they had played some quality defensive players...

 

... all we had was Story, whose only full month was the last one (when we were repeatedly told he was "phenomenal", and the Sox had a worse record than with Kike at SS).

[Bellhorn04]

Kike's -1.5 fWAR indicates he cost us 3 games in 4 months compared to an average shortstop.

[notin]

Kike's -1.5 fWAR indicates he cost us 3 games in 4 months compared to an average shortstop.

 

And that’s just one position over less than a full season…

[notin]

(edited) if they had played some quality defensive players...

 

... all we had was Story, whose only full month was the last one (when we were repeatedly told he was "phenomenal", and the Sox had a worse record than with Kike at SS).

 

I stand by my comments about Sox fans and defense on the other thread.

[moonslav59]

I stand by my comments about Sox fans and defense on the other thread.

 

Troll!!!

[mvp 78]

(edited) if they had played some quality defensive players...

 

... all we had was Story, whose only full month was the last one (when we were repeatedly told he was "phenomenal", and the Sox had a worse record than with Kike at SS).

 

The hitting sucked for most of the season and the relievers fell apart after being overused.

 

After Story returned:

 

Batter 3.1 fWAR (23rd) 91 wRC+ (22nd)

Pitching 4.0 fWAR (20th) (15th Starter, 19th Reliever) Relievers with 8th in fWAR prior to Story coming back

 

Their worst defensive positions when you account for all players were 1B, 2B, 3B and CF (all 28th in the league or worse). Because of Chang and Story, the Sox were 22nd at SS.

[mvp 78]

moon doesn't want to pay 2M for defense at 2B though!

[notin]

moon doesn't want to pay 2M for defense at 2B though!

 

At that price, Wendle becomes a safety net if you can’t get a better player.

 

I’d take Wendle at 2b over whoever is slated to start there now, which I would guess is the superior offensive talent Enmanuel Valdez…

[notin]

The hitting sucked for most of the season and the relievers fell apart after being overused.

 

After Story returned:

 

Batter 3.1 fWAR (23rd) 91 wRC+ (22nd)

Pitching 4.0 fWAR (20th) (15th Starter, 19th Reliever) Relievers with 8th in fWAR prior to Story coming back

 

Their worst defensive positions when you account for all players were 1B, 2B, 3B and CF (all 28th in the league or worse). Because of Chang and Story, the Sox were 22nd at SS.

 

So yesterday, my Cubs’ fan teenage daughter in the midst of a baseball discussion said, unprompted, “the Red Sox should just sign Matt Chapman and fix that infield.”

 

She’s learning right…

[moonslav59]

moon doesn't want to pay 2M for defense at 2B though!

 

We need a good RH bat and defense at 2B

[moonslav59]

So yesterday, my Cubs’ fan teenage daughter in the midst of a baseball discussion said, unprompted, “the Red Sox should just sign Matt Chapman and fix that infield.”

 

She’s learning right…

 

That's because she hears you saying it over and over in your sleep.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

So yesterday, my Cubs’ fan teenage daughter in the midst of a baseball discussion said, unprompted, “the Red Sox should just sign Matt Chapman and fix that infield.”

 

She’s learning right…

 

As I've stated plenty of times, I have no interest in the Sox adding another K Master.

 

But I would absolutely change the entire infield dynamic longterm by trading for Alex Bregman.

[Dipre]

Alex Bregman ain't walking through that door.

[moonslav59]

Alex Bregman ain't walking through that door.

 

If they can't extend him, maybe....

[Old Red]

If they can't extend him, maybe....

 

He’s still not walking through the Red Sox door.

[mvp 78]

At that price, Wendle becomes a safety net if you can’t get a better player.

 

I’d take Wendle at 2b over whoever is slated to start there now, which I would guess is the superior offensive talent Enmanuel Valdez…

 

AKA, the reason the Sox were 30th in defense at 2B.

[mvp 78]

So yesterday, my Cubs’ fan teenage daughter in the midst of a baseball discussion said, unprompted, “the Red Sox should just sign Matt Chapman and fix that infield.”

 

She’s learning right…

 

He can play 2B?

[mvp 78]

We need a good RH bat and defense at 2B

 

The RHB can go play LF.

[mvp 78]

Alex Bregman ain't walking through that door.

 

Per BTV:

 

Bregman

Javier

Garcia

 

for

 

Yorke

Kelly

 

FULL THROTTLE LET'S GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[Dipre]

Yama San/Montgomery/Renfroe/Tim Anderson (bounce back candidate), is my perfect offseason.

[Dipre]

My more conservative offseason is Montgomery/Clevinger/Duvall/a body for 2B

[mvp 78]

Yama San/Montgomery/Renfroe/Tim Anderson (bounce back candidate), is my perfect offseason.

 

Tim Anderson got his ass kicked. He is not a dirt dog. No thank you.

[mvp 78]

Bregman 2B

Chapman 3B

Yamamoto SP

Montgomery SP

Imanaga sP

 

Buy Devers an OF glove.

 

FULL THROTTLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!