A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

Yamamoto is a move that's more up to the owners than it is to Breslow, IMHO.

 

Agreed, but first Brez is the one that would have to bring the deal to them and push for it- or not.

[Bellhorn04]

Signing Yamo would come down to trusting the scouts, the radar guns and your own instincts.

 

And outbidding some other teams that also have a lot of money to invest.

[moonslav59]

It’s fun watching you dial back…

 

I like the "There was no point..." comment.

[moonslav59]

And outbidding some other teams that also have a lot of money to invest.

 

That's given.

 

I was responding to the point about Brez's willingness to get so bold right out of the gate- or not.

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed, but first Brez is the one that would have to bring the deal to them and push for it- or not.

 

I think the deal-making in this case is going to be pretty simple. It'll be like E-Bay - do you want to increase your bid or do you want to drop out.

 

It's probably a given that there will be an opt-out or two included.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Don't kid yourself, pitchers today are better than they were 20 years ago or however far back you want to go. They throw harder and put more spin on the ball. But the extra stress on their arms also makes them less durable.

 

There's gotta be some analysis done in somebody's R&D dept. on this. Pitchers are bigger, stronger, faster, and thus more injury-prone? Where is the data when over-training superseded over-throwing (in the days of complete games... or Japan)?

 

Or is it something in modern cow's milk that builds muscle and makes tendons and ligaments brittle at the same time? Should any human drink the milk of another animal... or only their mother's milk when infants -- like every other creature on the planet?

[Bellhorn04]

There's gotta be some analysis done in somebody's R&D dept. on this. Pitchers are bigger, stronger, faster, and thus more injury-prone? Where is the data when over-training superseded over-throwing (in the days of complete games... or Japan)?

 

Or is it something in modern cow's milk that builds muscle and makes tendons and ligaments brittle at the same time? Should any human drink the milk of another animal... or only their mother's milk when infants -- like every other creature on the planet?

 

I think it's pretty simple, personally. The harder the ball is thrown and the more spin is generated, the more stress it puts on the arm. And there's no way to protect the arm against that kind of stress. It's joints and ligaments and tendons.

 

Nate Eovaldi is a good example. The guy is obviously in great physical shape, but he's also an injury waiting to happen every time he takes the mound.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Signing Yamo would come down to trusting the scouts, the radar guns and your own instincts.

 

I think Brez will make 1-2 "gutsy moves," this winter. How gutsy is the question. I'm thinking one big trade of prospects that are not "his type" and one major signing, which to me is anyone as good or better than Monty.

 

I'm shifting my hopes, and now prefer to keep any prospect deemed by the org as a future star -- with the general plan to lock them all up longterm as soon as they're proven big leaguers. I'd rather watch a young core of bordeline All-Stars or 4 WAR warriors grow and contend together for the next 5 to 7 years than to give them up in a deal for a veteran who will cost a lot more to sign for less prime production.

 

I'd rather the owners and front office just decide to spend on free agents, especially the guys without qualifying offers who won't cost draft picks. Yes, that means the Sox may take a tax hike and lose some other flexibility, but so what -- it happens, they'll be better shortterm, and longterm... and the future core they keep can offset picks or int. signings they'll lose.

[moonslav59]

I think the deal-making in this case is going to be pretty simple. It'll be like E-Bay - do you want to increase your bid or do you want to drop out.

 

It's probably a given that there will be an opt-out or two included.

 

I agree that Yamo will demand an opt out or two. He has the potential to be great, and could end up better than what the highest contract offer is.

 

When you deal with opt-outs, the structure of the pay by years is more important. If it's backend loaded, then the opt out is less likely.

 

Of course, he'd prefer a front end loaded deal with an opt out after the big payday seasons.

 

It's hard for me to put a number on the highest I'd go. The posting fee is pretty big, too. I don't think MLBTR's projected $225M/9 gets it done. I think he might get $270M/10. At age 25, there is really no comp, except for maybe Tanaka, who signed at age 25 for $155M/7 way back in 2014!

 

My view may change, but right now, I might offer $280M/11 or $290M/12. The extra years would bring down the AAV, and those years would only be at ages 35-36. (Those are Sonny Gray years.)

 

[moonslav59]

I think it's pretty simple, personally. The harder the ball is thrown and the more spin is generated, the more stress it puts on the arm. And there's no way to protect the arm against that kind of stress. It's joints and ligaments and tendons.

 

Nate Eovaldi is a good example. The guy is obviously in great physical shape, but he's also an injury waiting to happen every time he takes the mound.

 

Agreed, but also those who try to get the highest spin rate on hard thrown breaking balls, go under the knife often, too.

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed, but also those who try to get the highest spin rate on hard thrown breaking balls, go under the knife often, too.

 

As I said, the harder the ball is thrown and the more spin is generated.

[notin]

There's gotta be some analysis done in somebody's R&D dept. on this. Pitchers are bigger, stronger, faster, and thus more injury-prone? Where is the data when over-training superseded over-throwing (in the days of complete games... or Japan)?

 

Or is it something in modern cow's milk that builds muscle and makes tendons and ligaments brittle at the same time? Should any human drink the milk of another animal... or only their mother's milk when infants -- like every other creature on the planet?

 

Want the R&D?

 

Kids start touring too fast too young, and many play in year round leagues now. So you have crop after crop of 18yo kids entering the draft with more wear and tear on their ligaments than ever before. Couple that with the destructive (and thankfully bygone) trend of parents subjecting their kids voluntarily to TJ surgery under the complete misapprehension that it would help them throw harder, and you have more damaged goods at a young age.

 

But it’s all about the radar gun readings. A good radar gun reading can lead to a scholarship or a signing bonus. Does anything else matter, he asks, tongue-in-cheek…

[Randy Red Sox]

I agree that Yamo will demand an opt out or two. He has the potential to be great, and could end up better than what the highest contract offer is.

 

When you deal with opt-outs, the structure of the pay by years is more important. If it's backend loaded, then the opt out is less likely.

 

Of course, he'd prefer a front end loaded deal with an opt out after the big payday seasons.

 

It's hard for me to put a number on the highest I'd go. The posting fee is pretty big, too. I don't think MLBTR's projected $225M/9 gets it done. I think he might get $270M/10. At age 25, there is really no comp, except for maybe Tanaka, who signed at age 25 for $155M/7 way back in 2014!

 

My view may change, but right now, I might offer $280M/11 or $290M/12. The extra years would bring down the AAV, and those years would only be at ages 35-36. (Those are Sonny Gray years.)

 

 

I hate opt out deals as they 100% favour the player. They should be 2 way and I'd do whatever I could to stay away from them. Sox have been burnt in the past by them { Xander, JDM}

[moonslav59]

As I said, the harder the ball is thrown and the more spin is generated.

 

Are the highest spin rate pitches all fastballs?

[Bellhorn04]

Are the highest spin rate pitches all fastballs?

 

Now you've got me.

[moonslav59]

I hate opt out deals as they 100% favour the player. They should be 2 way and I'd do whatever I could to stay away from them. Sox have been burnt in the past by them { Xander, JDM}

 

The Bogey and JD deals were two of the best contracts the Sox have made since the Manny deal.

 

We were not burned. We got Bogey for $20M x 3 in his prime.

 

We got very good production from JD over his deal, despite lower RBI totals near the end.

 

Sure, I'd have preferred a longer deal with Bogey, but it was a great extension signing.

[Randy Red Sox]

i seemed to recall many RS fans hoping JD would opt out of his deal the last couple years. XB was not really underpaid at 20 million when he signed that deal and when he walked we got nothing in return. I call that being burned.

[Bellhorn04]

i seemed to recall many RS fans hoping JD would opt out of his deal the last couple years.

 

So it worked like a regular contract with no opt-out. They didn't get burned by the opt-out.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

i seemed to recall many RS fans hoping JD would opt out of his deal the last couple years. XB was not really underpaid at 20 million when he signed that deal and when he walked we got nothing in return. I call that being burned.

 

For this fan, it was all about the fall of 2019, when the media started saying the Red Sox couldn't afford both JD and Mookie, Dombrowski said, "You can't sign'em all" and Kennedy pretended, "There is a way we can keep both JD and Mookie..."

[moonslav59]

i seemed to recall many RS fans hoping JD would opt out of his deal the last couple years. XB was not really underpaid at 20 million when he signed that deal and when he walked we got nothing in return. I call that being burned.

 

$20M x 3 was a steal!

[notin]

For this fan, it was all about the fall of 2019, when the media started saying the Red Sox couldn't afford both JD and Mookie, Dombrowski said, "You can't sign'em all" and Kennedy pretended, "There is a way we can keep both JD and Mookie..."

 

JD? Why JD and Mookie? Why not Price and Mookie?

[notin]

I hate opt out deals as they 100% favour the player. They should be 2 way and I'd do whatever I could to stay away from them. Sox have been burnt in the past by them { Xander, JDM}

 

A lot of times they are necessary to get the players to sign in the first place ..

[moonslav59]

Of course a 6-7 year deal for Bogey at $22-23M would have been better, but we signed him for $20M x 3 that ended at age 30.

 

.907 OPS '18-'20 and 137 OPS+

 

.823 OPS '21-'23 and 126 OPS+

 

Looks like a damn good deal.

 

JD gave is an .889 OPS over 5 years (135 OPS+)

Per 162 games:

.292 33 107

Looks like a damn good deal.

 

These two deals are among the best in recent Sox history.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

JD? Why JD and Mookie? Why not Price and Mookie?

 

Dunno -- maybe the media sensed that opting out was highly unlikely for a pitcher who'd average 1.0 WAR over the last three years of a contract still worth $96 million dollars (that total does not include money he forfeited by staying home during Covid). This is not saying that anyone expected Price to barely pitch better than a replacement player... just that no one, especially David, felt there was another sucker out there who'd pay him more to do it.

[Bellhorn04]

Dunno -- maybe the media sensed that opting out was highly unlikely for a pitcher who'd average 1.0 WAR over the last three years of a contract still worth $96 million dollars (that total does not include money he forfeited by staying home during Covid). This is not saying that anyone expected Price to barely pitch better than a replacement player... just that no one, especially David, felt there was another sucker out there who'd pay him more to do it.

 

I guess it must be said again...John Henry drew a line in the sand with Mookie. That's my feeling on what happened, anyway, and I haven't seen anything to controvert it. Even the $300 million offer is in question. Mookie said it didn't happen and invited the press to go to Bloom for the details of the negotiations.

[moonslav59]

Sox sign Wyatt Mills to a 2 year minor league deal!

[Randy Red Sox]

So it worked like a regular contract with no opt-out. They didn't get burned by the opt-out.

 

my point is that if the opt out was mutual the Sox may well have exercised it the last yr or 2

[Randy Red Sox]

Sox sign Wyatt Mills to a 2 year minor league deal!

 

may not even pitch in 2024. Are we sure Chaim Bloom is really gone?

[oldtimer]

Bloom watched and waited and was rather indecisive when making moves to improve the team. The result reflected his approach. I am waiting to see what Breslow does but time is going by and I'm hoping he is going to make meaningful deals early on. He really hasn't shown much yet, other than a pitching coach.

[moonslav59]

may not even pitch in 2024. Are we sure Chaim Bloom is really gone?

 

It's a minor league deal!!!!