A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[Old Red]

How about keeping Dugo and trading:

 

Mayer & Duran

for

Reynolds, Keller & Bednar

 

Sign an ace.

 

Maybe trade Jansen & Pivetta for a better SP. (BTV accepts just Jansen for Javier or Urquidy.)

 

I’m all for trading Jansen, but if you do he has to be replaced, and that would cost too.

[Bellhorn04]

I’m all for trading Jansen, but if you do he has to be replaced, and that would cost too.

 

So why are you all for it?

[moonslav59]

I’m all for trading Jansen, but if you do he has to be replaced, and that would cost too.

 

Bednar is the replacement and has several years of control.

[moonslav59]

It feels like everyone is a left fielder. And here we have a likely GG right fielder for one more year with an average offense. That's a rock on your roster. Not your #3 hitter but you plug him in RF and go look to upgrade elsewhere.

 

I get the desire to trade him. I get the argument, and I don't 100% dispute it. I just prefer to keep Alex for one more year.

 

I don't think we extend him, so that is the main reason to trade him, now or at the deadline.

3-4 or our best OF'ers bat LH'd. That's the second major reason.

We can probably sign Duvall to close to Dugo's arb salary in 2024, and play him in RF.

 

I'd trade him, unless the right return just isn't offered.

[Old Red]

So why are you all for it?

 

Just to get someone younger, and if cheaper that’s fine too. Jansen pitched his lowest amount of innings last year outside of his rookie, and the Covid year, so another year older and on the old bod.

[Old Red]

I don't think we extend him, so that is the main reason to trade him, now or at the deadline.

3-4 or our best OF'ers bat LH'd. That's the second major reason.

We can probably sign Duvall to close to Dugo's arb salary in 2024, and play him in RF.

 

I'd trade him, unless the right return just isn't offered.

 

I don’t think he gets extended either, but only 2024 comes next. I’m for bringing Duvall back, but you won’t get him for just 1 yr again, so I don’t know how long, and for how much you would want to go.

[Old Red]

Bednar is the replacement and has several years of control.

Bednar would be a good replacement, but I’m not sure the Red Sox would trade Mayer for a RP.

[Bellhorn04]

They're not trading Mayer, period. They have lots of money to spend on their biggest need, starting pitching.

[mvp 78]

3rd place gets something, I hear.

 

A Rookie of the Year win or a top three finish in MVP or Cy Young voting in his pre-arbitration seasons would net the team that extra draft pick. If the international draft is implemented, he could earn the club a selection if second or third in Rookie of the Year, or fourth or fifth in Cy Young.[/i

 

I believe that the Sox don't get a PPI pick as there is no International Draft yet. I've looked but haven't seen anywhere that states that 2nd or 3rd place gets an amateur draft pick or international money.

[mvp 78]

They're not trading Mayer, period. They have lots of money to spend on their biggest need, starting pitching.

 

They'd be dumb to not at least consider trading a guy who is already injured and may not pan out for an established starter.

[mvp 78]

Bednar would be a good replacement, but I’m not sure the Red Sox would trade Mayer for a RP.

 

For a reliever? No.

[Bellhorn04]

They'd be dumb to not at least consider trading a guy who is already injured and may not pan out for an established starter.

 

That's one of the issues, his value is a little depressed right now.

 

He's still a top prospect, though. Why trade him when you can buy starting pitching? Starting pitching is the one thing in relative abundance in this free agent market.

[moonslav59]

Bednar would be a good replacement, but I’m not sure the Red Sox would trade Mayer for a RP.

 

Um, the trade was for Keller (a good SP), Reynolds (a good RHB) and bednar (a good closer.)

[moonslav59]

I don’t think he gets extended either, but only 2024 comes next. I’m for bringing Duvall back, but you won’t get him for just 1 yr again, so I don’t know how long, and for how much you would want to go.

 

I realize Duvall will get 2-3 years, minimum, and if he ends up losing another step on D, we'll have yet another LF/DH type on the roster, but RHBs are in short supply, and he can play a decent RF.

 

Bite the bullet. Sign Duvall and trade Dugo.

[mvp 78]

They could trade a guy like Duran for Bednar maybe? Mayer has too much value for Bednar.

 

Per BTV:

 

Mayer

Rafaela

 

for

 

Reynolds

Bednar

Cruz

[moonslav59]

Bednar would be a good replacement, but I’m not sure the Red Sox would trade Mayer for a RP.

 

IMO, we need 2 excellent SP'er and another good one. Even adding two very good SP'ers might take up all of most of the winter budget, which is unknown, as of now.

 

To me, it make sense to trade for one younger SP'er and then sign 1 excellent SP'er. With the budget savings, we can spend more on ...

 

1. a 3rd SP

2. a better RHB (CF, RF, 2B?)

3. a LH RP'er

4. an upgrade at a 2nd position no filled by #2.

 

I would be surprised, if we trade Mayer, Anthony or Teel. I think we might have to, if we want 2024 to be a magical season.

 

(This could also be achieved without a major prospect trade, if our spending goes way over the tax line. I think a big trade is more likely than us spending $19.9M over the first line or beyond the 2nd line.))

[moonslav59]

They could trade a guy like Duran for Bednar maybe? Mayer has too much value for Bednar.

 

Per BTV:

 

Mayer

Rafaela

 

for

 

Reynolds

Bednar

Cruz

 

Nobody is saying trade Mayer for Bednar. Bednar was perhaps the 3rd most valuable return player in my suggest trade:

 

Mayer & Duran

for

Reynolds, Keller & Bednar

[Bellhorn04]

There's absolutely no need to trade Mayer. They can accomplish what they need to without doing that, so it would be just plain stupid and shortsighted. Ain't happening.

[Old Red]

Um, the trade was for Keller (a good SP), Reynolds (a good RHB) and bednar (a good closer.)

 

Mayer finished the year injured, and hasn’t proven anything past A ball, and I think it would take more than him, and Duran to get what you suggested to start with, and who knows if the Red Sox would consider Mayer as trade bait at this point anyways. Would you take that trade if you was in charge of Pittsburgh? I wouldn’t.

[mvp 78]

That's one of the issues, his value is a little depressed right now.

 

He's still a top prospect, though. Why trade him when you can buy starting pitching? Starting pitching is the one thing in relative abundance in this free agent market.

 

It's NOT in abundance though. Everyone else will be bidding on it too. Nola won't be leaving the Phillies because DD loves his stars. Texas is going to overpay for Montgomery. Ohtani is hurt. Urias is garbage. That's 4 big names already off the board. I guess the Sox bid on Yamamoto against everyone else? That leaves Gray, Snell, Lugo, Gibson, Flaherty and worse. Cardinals stated they wanted 3 guys so they'll be in the bidding on at least 2 of those. Mets will probably go hard for somebody. Will Sox fans be happy with Yamamoto and Giolito? Maybe Crag goes after Snell because he loves velo and he throws harder than the other guys mentioned?

[Old Red]

There's absolutely no need to trade Mayer. They can accomplish what they need to without doing that, so it would be just plain stupid and shortsighted. Ain't happening.

 

I wouldn’t call it stupid to think about trading Mayer. Like I said he hasn’t proven anything past A ball, and it’s nowhere near a sure thing he’ll be as good as Bogey, and will ever live up to the hype he’s had since he was drafted.

[Old Red]

It's NOT in abundance though. Everyone else will be bidding on it too. Nola won't be leaving the Phillies because DD loves his stars. Texas is going to overpay for Montgomery. Ohtani is hurt. Urias is garbage. That's 4 big names already off the board. I guess the Sox bid on Yamamoto against everyone else? That leaves Gray, Snell, Lugo, Gibson, Flaherty and worse. Cardinals stated they wanted 3 guys so they'll be in the bidding on at least 2 of those. Mets will probably go hard for somebody. Will Sox fans be happy with Yamamoto and Giolito? Maybe Crag goes after Snell because he loves velo and he throws harder than the other guys mentioned?

Agree buying starting pitching will be expensive, and there will be lots of competition.

[mvp 78]

Nobody is saying trade Mayer for Bednar. Bednar was perhaps the 3rd most valuable return player in my suggest trade:

 

Mayer & Duran

for

Reynolds, Keller & Bednar

 

I don't think PITT does that trade even though the numbers work out on BTV.

[mvp 78]

There's absolutely no need to trade Mayer. They can accomplish what they need to without doing that, so it would be just plain stupid and shortsighted. Ain't happening.

 

You use the farm to develop talent into future stars AND to trade as assets when the need arises. We've seen from the previous few years that this team has a huge hole at starting pitching and there isn't a lot of help in the minor leagues. If they are going to move him for an impact arm, it would make sense.

[Bellhorn04]

I wouldn’t call it stupid to think about trading Mayer. Like I said he hasn’t proven anything past A ball, and it’s nowhere near a sure thing he’ll be as good as Bogey, and will ever live up to the hype he’s had since he was drafted.

 

He's still only 20.

[moonslav59]

Mayer finished the year injured, and hasn’t proven anything past A ball, and I think it would take more than him, and Duran to get what you suggested to start with, and who knows if the Red Sox would consider Mayer as trade bait at this point anyways. Would you take that trade if you was in charge of Pittsburgh? I wouldn’t.

 

PIT will likely trade Reynolds, this winter. The other two have several years of control.

 

I do not think BTV's value on Mayer is too high.

 

I have no idea how PIT values Mayer and Duran. Hell, it's hard for anyone to place a firm value on either one.

 

I think PIT might say yes, or they might get a better offer from someone else.

 

I'd throw in 1-2 from these roster bubble or blocked prospects: Walter, Mata (out of options,) Dalbec, Hickey, Lugo or maybe even Paulino or Jordan.

[Bellhorn04]

It's NOT in abundance though. Everyone else will be bidding on it too. Nola won't be leaving the Phillies because DD loves his stars. Texas is going to overpay for Montgomery. Ohtani is hurt. Urias is garbage. That's 4 big names already off the board. I guess the Sox bid on Yamamoto against everyone else? That leaves Gray, Snell, Lugo, Gibson, Flaherty and worse. Cardinals stated they wanted 3 guys so they'll be in the bidding on at least 2 of those. Mets will probably go hard for somebody. Will Sox fans be happy with Yamamoto and Giolito? Maybe Crag goes after Snell because he loves velo and he throws harder than the other guys mentioned?

 

They have to sign one of the big guys. That's mandatory.

 

If DD is committed to Nola why did he let him get to free agency?

[moonslav59]

I don't think PITT does that trade even though the numbers work out on BTV.

 

Maybe a 3-way deal where Dugo goes to HOU or wherever, we send Mayer to PIT along with the prospect from Dugo, and we get just Keller and Bednar. (We then sign Duvall.)

[moonslav59]

They have to sign one of the big guys. That's mandatory.

 

If DD is committed to Nola why did he let him get to free agency?

 

Nola has a say in signing, too.

[mvp 78]

PIT will likely trade Reynolds, this winter. The other two have several years of control.

 

I do not think BTV's value on Mayer is too high.

 

I have no idea how PIT values Mayer and Duran. Hell, it's hard for anyone to place a firm value on either one.

 

I think PIT might say yes, or they might get a better offer from someone else.

 

I'd throw in 1-2 from these roster bubble or blocked prospects: Walter, Mata (out of options,) Dalbec, Hickey, Lugo or maybe even Paulino or Jordan.

 

Ben loves prospects. I think if you dangle a shiny object in front of him, you can get him to bite.