Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[notin]

No, I said I goofed up. I thought for some reason the White Sox CF was named Martin. I wasn’t thinking about Chris Martin.

 

Ooooh. Odd mistake, but what the heck.

 

Of course Robert probably costs something like Anthony plus Mayer. Except the White Sox might not be so into Mayer since they plan to start the season with top prospect Colson Montgomery at shortstop. (Another Montgomery!!)

 

For Robert and Cease, it’s a farm-draining price that probably includes Anthony, Bello, Casas and Teel. Or something along those lines…

Edited November 20, 2023 by notin

[dgalehouse]

A starting pitcher's win total is not as significant as it used to be , largely due to the fewer number of innings they pitch and the increased reliance on bullpens. But it should not be disregarded either because winning is the entire objective. A reliever may get credit for the win , but the starter needs to set the tone. I would think twice about signing a starter who never seems to win many games. There may be a legitimate reason, but it is something to be concerned about.

[Old Red]

Ooooh. Odd mistake, but what the heck.

 

Of course Robert probably costs something like Anthony plus Mayer. Except the White Sox might not be so into Mayer since they plan to start the season with top prospect Colson Montgomery at shortstop. (Another Montgomery!!)

 

For Robert and Cease, it’s a farm-draining price that probably includes Anthony, Bello, Casas and Teel. Or something along those lines…

 

If it took that much then definitely a BIG no! I was just throwing something out there that I don’t normally do, but things are slow at the moment.

[Old Red]

A starting pitcher's win total is not as significant as it used to be , largely due to the fewer number of innings they pitch and the increased reliance on bullpens. But it should not be disregarded either because winning is the entire objective. A reliever may get credit for the win , but the starter needs to set the tone. I would think twice about signing a starter who never seems to win many games. There may be a legitimate reason, but it is something to be concerned about.

Well said. I know many things go into W-L for a starting pitcher, and they are not the stars today like they used to be back in the Koufax, and Gibby days.

[moonslav59]

Rondon was pretty good his last two years, before the Yankees signed him. How did that work out? How has Robbie Ray worked out in Seattle? These guys were available too.

 

Where am I arguing about who will do good?

[moonslav59]

I have already mentioned before. Let’s make some trades for some younger pitching. And no I don’t know with who. FA pitchers with big contracts are just to risky to me.

 

No specifics as expected.

[notin]

A starting pitcher's win total is not as significant as it used to be , largely due to the fewer number of innings they pitch and the increased reliance on bullpens. But it should not be disregarded either because winning is the entire objective. A reliever may get credit for the win , but the starter needs to set the tone. I would think twice about signing a starter who never seems to win many games. There may be a legitimate reason, but it is something to be concerned about.

 

This is an argument FOR ignoring W-L records in favor of other stats…

[Old Red]

Where am I arguing about who will do good?

 

You don’t have to be arguing, and I didn’t say you was. My stance is FA pitching is over priced, and risky. Agree, or disagree one way of the other, but in the short, and long run it doesn’t change my opinion.

[Old Red]

No specifics as expected.

 

We’ve already gone over this hundreds of times already. I’m not into making trade suggestions even though I did make one today. I’m not a GM, or HOBO, and I don’t get paid to be one.You like making BTV trade accepted suggestions, and that’s fine for you even though they never happen.

[dgalehouse]

This is an argument FOR ignoring W-L records in favor of other stats…

 

There are a hundred different stats out there for those who are into that. In the end , they are all just components of winning the game. Winning is the end result that is desired. The starter may not get credit for winning a game in which he pitched well, but I would be concerned about signing a guy who never seems to win many games . That's all.

[Old Red]

There are a hundred different stats out there for those who are into that. In the end , they are all just components of winning the game. Winning is the end result that is desired. The starter may not get credit for winning a game in which he pitched well, but I would be concerned about signing a guy who never seems to win many games . That's all.

 

If you’ve been in the league for 7 yrs like Monty, and are just 38-34 for your career it can’t be all blamed on the team he has been on. Some of the blame has to be on him too. He had a good postseason, and now he’s available. Take him, or leave him. Some one will take him, and pay him well. If it’s the Red Sox I hope it works out.

[notin]

There are a hundred different stats out there for those who are into that. In the end , they are all just components of winning the game. Winning is the end result that is desired. The starter may not get credit for winning a game in which he pitched well, but I would be concerned about signing a guy who never seems to win many games . That's all.

 

Exactly why many are advocating disregarding W-L records. The misfortune of simply being on a bad team can HEAVILY influence them, but it doesn’t make the pitcher any worse…

[notin]

If you’ve been in the league for 7 yrs like Monty, and are just 38-34 for your career it can’t be all blamed on the team he has been on. Some of the blame has to be on him too. He had a good postseason, and now he’s available. Take him, or leave him. Some one will take him, and pay him well. If it’s the Red Sox I hope it works out.

 

Yeah he’s far from the guy I want them to most heavily target. I don’t mind him, but I agree with the early buzz that he is going to be in more demand than he should be…

[Old Red]

Exactly why many are advocating disregarding W-L records. The misfortune of simply being on a bad team can HEAVILY influence them, but it doesn’t make the pitcher any worse…

 

And once again I’m not one who is disregarding the W-L record, so all kinds of bells, and whistles are going off to tell me I’m wrong.

[Old Red]

Yeah he’s far from the guy I want them to most heavily target. I don’t mind him, but I agree with the early buzz that he is going to be in more demand than he should be…

 

This we agree on.

[notin]

This we agree on.

 

I’m no higher on Montgomery than you. Maybe even less. But I think he is going to cash in on his year.

 

Look what one postseason did for Eovaldi back in 2018. And all that was based on one start and a relief outing in which he was the losing pitcher. Next thing you know, he was getting a bigger deal than former Cy Young winners…

[Old Red]

I’m no higher on Montgomery than you. Maybe even less. But I think he is going to cash in on his year.

 

Look what one postseason did for Eovaldi back in 2018. And all that was based on one start and a relief outing in which he was the losing pitcher. Next thing you know, he was getting a bigger deal than former Cy Young winners…

 

Evol is a good comparison, and he probably wouldn’t have gotten the contract he did without the strong performance in the 2018 PS. Monty picked a good time to pitch well at the end of the regular season, and the postseason, and yes he will get paid more, because of it.

[dgalehouse]

Exactly why many are advocating disregarding W-L records. The misfortune of simply being on a bad team can HEAVILY influence them, but it doesn’t make the pitcher any worse…

 

Pitching for a team that doesn't provide much run support , plays poor defense, blows saves, etc. could be legitimate reasons for a starter having a low win total. No question. I am just saying that it's a mistake to just disregard the won/loss record. It definitely does matter. Every starter begins the game with the goal of winning it. When they never win much , I would take another look rather than just disregard it. I do think it has become trendy in the analytic world to automatically dismiss things like wins and losses. And I disagree.

[Nick]

Is he any good? per overthemonster

 

"It’s hard to say for sure, owing to the fact that he doesn’t have much of a track record yet, but he looks promising. Campbell has pitched just 28.2 Major League innings in his career, having made his debut last July. Prior to that, he was a four-year college pitcher who missed significant time due to Tommy John surgery, and then spent an additional two-and-a-half years in the minors, so it’s not like he’s some young phenom (he’ll be 26 on Opening Day).

 

But having said that, the 28.2 innings he pitched last year were pretty good ones. He gave up just two homers and struck out 33 hitters while posting a 2.83 ERA. He throws a mid-90s fastball, a slider, and a sweeper, with the slider being a very effective wipeout pitch that yielded just a .137 batting average and .157 slugging percentage against. Where he struggled last year was with control, as he walked over four batters-per-nine-innings. But what’s notable about that number is that it represented a marked jump from his time in the minors, where he kept that number down to 2.5 over the course of 89.1 innings. If he can figure out how to keep getting hitters out while limiting the free passes, he can turn into a very effective late-inning reliever for the foreseeable future"

 

Lots of ifs but maybe promising. Still need another lefthander in the pen.

[Bellhorn04]

2023 fWAR for free agent starters:

 

4 Gray 5.3

13 Montgomery 4.3

14 Snell 4.1

15 Nola 3.9

30 ERod 3.0

34 Lugo 2.8

34 Hendricks 2.8

37 Stroman 2.7

40 Wacha 2.6

[moonslav59]

We’ve already gone over this hundreds of times already. I’m not into making trade suggestions even though I did make one today. I’m not a GM, or HOBO, and I don’t get paid to be one.You like making BTV trade accepted suggestions, and that’s fine for you even though they never happen.

 

Hundreds of times: too funny.

[notin]

Pitching for a team that doesn't provide much run support , plays poor defense, blows saves, etc. could be legitimate reasons for a starter having a low win total. No question. I am just saying that it's a mistake to just disregard the won/loss record. It definitely does matter. Every starter begins the game with the goal of winning it. When they never win much , I would take another look rather than just disregard it. I do think it has become trendy in the analytic world to automatically dismiss things like wins and losses. And I disagree.

 

Leaders over the past 3 seasons:

 

Wins: Julio Urias, Gerrit Cole, Chris Bassitt

fWAR: Zack Wheeler, Kevin Gausman, Corbin Burnes

ERA: Justin Verlander, Brandon Woodruff, Max Fried (same 3 for ERA- with Fried and Woodruff flipped)

xFIP: Spencer Strider, Corbin Burnes, Logan Webb

K/BB: George Kirby, Zack Eflin, Aaron Nola

 

None of these really tell you the best 3 pitchers. But the presence of Bassitt really makes wins the most questionable list…

[Old Red]

Leaders over the past 3 seasons:

 

Wins: Julio Urias, Gerrit Cole, Chris Bassitt

fWAR: Zack Wheeler, Kevin Gausman, Corbin Burnes

ERA: Justin Verlander, Brandon Woodruff, Max Fried (same 3 for ERA- with Fried and Woodruff flipped)

xFIP: Spencer Strider, Corbin Burnes, Logan Webb

K/BB: George Kirby, Zack Eflin, Aaron Nola

 

None of these really tell you the best 3 pitchers. But the presence of Bassitt really makes wins the most questionable list…

 

Bassitt 43 wins the last three years. I’ll take it, and one of those years were with the A’s.The rest of his stats aren’t that bad either. I’ll take him over Monty. Oops he’s not available, but Monty is.🙈

[notin]

Bassitt 43 wins the last three years. I’ll take it, and one of those years were with the A’s.The rest of his stats aren’t that bad either. I’ll take him over Monty. Oops he’s not available, but Monty is.

 

 

In the last 3 years Bassitt has a 3.41 ERA and Montgomery has a 3.48 ERA. Like Montgomery, Bassitt has also pitched for 3 teams over that stretch (journeyman?) but has more wins, quite possibly because the 3 teams he played for did win 276 games…

[Old Red]

Not everyone who pitches for 3 teams in 3 years is someone I consider a journeyman. Just because I said that about Monty some are trying to compare everyone else who has done that in the same light. Everyone is different, and all the ones I heard compared to Monty are better than Monty like Scherzer, and Lester earlier, and now Bassitt. Edited November 20, 2023 by Old Red

[Larry Cook]

2023 fWAR for free agent starters:

 

4 Gray 5.3

13 Montgomery 4.3

14 Snell 4.1

15 Nola 3.9

30 ERod 3.0

34 Lugo 2.8

34 Hendricks 2.8

37 Stroman 2.7

40 Wacha 2.6

 

More evidence that breslow is sniffing around the proper candidate for us to sign. Time for Henry to stroke a big check

[notin]

Not everyone who pitches for 3 teams in 3 years is someone I consider a journeyman. Just because I said that about Monty some are trying to compare everyone else who has done that in the same light. Everyone is different, and all the ones I heard compared to Monty are better than Monty like Scherzer, and Lester earlier, and now Bassitt.

 

So what makes Montgomery a journeyman? And not Scherzer, who has pitched for Arizona, Detroit, Washington, Los Angeles, New York and Texas? I mean, that’s a lot of teams. He’s entering Kimbrel Kountry…

[moonslav59]

So what makes Montgomery a journeyman? And not Scherzer, who has pitched for Arizona, Detroit, Washington, Los Angeles, New York and Texas? I mean, that’s a lot of teams. He’s entering Kimbrel Kountry…

 

Let me guess: it’s the 39-14 record, although W-Ls are not everything.

 

 

[Old Red]

Let me guess: it’s the 39-14 record, although W-Ls are not everything.

 

 

NO ONE EVER SAID W-L are everything. NO ONE at all. You on the other hand are trying to say W-L are meaningless. Just, because they are to you in no way makes it that way, and never will.

And yes that 39-14 record would be what most people not on here would point out.

Edited November 21, 2023 by Old Red

[Old Red]

So what makes Montgomery a journeyman? And not Scherzer, who has pitched for Arizona, Detroit, Washington, Los Angeles, New York and Texas? I mean, that’s a lot of teams. He’s entering Kimbrel Kountry…

 

Why are you only focused on the 3 team comment with Monty. That was just something I mentioned along with Monty being not much of a winner. Once again i wouldn’t compare Monty to Scherzer like they are close to equals, because they are not unless you only want to talk about how many teams they have been on the last 3 years.