Trade Deadline 2023

[mvp 78]

so?? he's terrible

 

He'd be cheap and the Sox need starters to fill innings rather than Joe Jacques.

[mvp 78]

The sleeper this off-season might be Steve Matz, who outfield Stroman last night.

 

Matz’ “back of the card” numbers have been weak in St. Louis, but his velocity and K% are right where they were when he was an effective pitcher for Toronto.

 

Matz is owed $25mill over the last 2 years of his deal with St. Louis ($11mill AAV). His BTV trade value is (-0.1).

 

These are the values I'm dubious about concerning BTV.

[notin]

These are the values I'm dubious about concerning BTV.

 

Well, it isn’t a perfect system. It essentially says St. Louis would be happy to dump the salary.

 

They might be, but they also might want to keep a couple SP for next year, and with Montgomery hitting free agency, Wainwright retiring, and Flaherty hitting FA (and per some talking heads, wanting out of St. Louis), they would be heading into 2024 with only Mikolas under contract if they dealt Matz…

[moonslav59]

Matz is not worth the salary he makes- barely.

 

That's all BTV is judging.

[notin]

Matz is not worth the salary he makes- barely.

 

That's all BTV is judging.

 

I think he’s out pitching his baseball card stats. Is he doing it well enough to take him on through age 34? That’s another question…

[mvp 78]

I think he’s out pitching his baseball card stats. Is he doing it well enough to take him on through age 34? That’s another question…

 

His BB rate is up and his hard hit rate is up. Do they really want to spend another 11M on a back of the rotation starter over the next 2.5 years?

[Hugh2]

He was a first round draft pick just 12 months prior. He wasn’t some minor league veteran late bloomer. He wasn’t ranked because before that he was in high school.

 

The Mets gave him up for a rental pretty quickly…

 

Fair, but he was far from a blue chipper too. He was 19th overall. That's highly regarded but certainly not like having a top 5 pick. Guys like that aren't top 100 prospects until they earn it.

 

It would have been equivalent to the Sox trading Mickey Romero, who could turn out to be Dustin Pedroia OR Deven Marrero. It's not like getting someone that is currently a legit top 100 prospect caliber. They got a guy, and they hit.

[moonslav59]

BTV has these values:

 

2 month Rentals

9.7 Giolito CWS

8.8 Montgomery STL

8.5 Snell SDP

6.1 Stroman CHC

5.7 ERod DET

2.1 W Miley MIL

 

Longer Term (Years)

56.0 Keller (2.3) PIT

51.4 Cease (2.3) CWS

40.7 Burnes (1.3) MIL

36.8 Musgrove (4.3) SDP

35.1 Sandoval (3.3) LAA

27.4 Senga (1.3) NYM

26.6 S Gray (4.3) WSH

24.1 Canning (2.3) LAA

22.4 Sears (5.3) OAK

21.9 Lynch (4.3) KCR

20.0 Singer (3.3) KCR

10.7 Blackburn (2.3) OAK

4.4 S Lugo (1.3) SDP

2.7 Houser (1.3) MIL

-34.5 Verlander (2.3) NYM

 

Sox Values

63 Mayer

51 Duran

49 Bello

42 Casas

35 Devers

32 Houck

28 Bleis & Anthony

20 Crawford & Yoshida

19 Yorke & Verdugo

17 Whitlock

13 Rafaela

9 Alcantara, Schreiber & Romero

6 Paxton & Paulino

5 Drohan

4 Wong, Perales, Wikelman, EValdez & Walter

3 Meidroth, Pivetta & E R-C

2.5 Hickey & Brannon

2.4 Abreu, DHam, Cespedes, Jordan, Wink & Monegro

2.2 Bastrado, Mata & Murphy

2.1 Encarnacion

2.0 Guerrero, Castro, Refsnyder, Bonaci, Fernandez, Blalock & Lugo

 

I have to think, despite Paulino maybe being overvalued, I'd make these trades:

 

Paulino for Stroman or ERod

 

Paulino & Mata for Montgomery or Snell

 

Paulino & Walter for Giolito

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Watched the O's/ Rays game last night and I was very impressed with the O's. Based on their young roster and their strong farm system, I believe the O's will be the top dog(bird) in the AL East this season and for many seasons to come.

[moonslav59]

Watched the O's/ Rays game last night and I was very impressed with the O's. Based on their young roster and their strong farm system, I believe the O's will be the top dog(bird) in the AL East this season and for many seasons to come.

 

It shows how building a sustainable farm system and not trading away top prospects can work like a charm.

 

(I realize there are many examples of teams that fail with this plan, mostly ones that never spend on good free agents.)

[Randy Red Sox]

yeah but how many last place finishes did the Orioles have before reaching this level? It would take at least 3 more last place finishes for the Sox to match them.

It shows how building a sustainable farm system and not trading away top prospects can work like a charm.

 

(I realize there are many examples of teams that fail with this plan, mostly ones that never spend on good free agents.)

[Randy Red Sox]

The guy is a head case that's why and he'd only be a rental and would cost too many of Bloom's prized prospects to acquire. Never said the guy couldn't pitch.

Why not?

 

20 GS

119 IP (about 6 IP/GS)

2.88 ERA

155 ERA+ leads league

.560 OPS Against is astounding for a SP over 6 IP per start x 20

0.5 HR/9 leads league

1.087 WHIP

 

He's getting better:

last 11 starts

2.62 ERA

.517 OPS Against

 

He's pitching like an ace.

 

[moonslav59]

The guy is a head case that's why and he'd only be a rental and would cost too many of Bloom's prized prospects to acquire. Never said the guy couldn't pitch.

 

His BTV value is about what Paulino is worth. He is not going to cost 2-3 "prized prospects."

 

If he did, I'm in agreement on not trading for any rental.

[Randy Red Sox]

well he's not coming for some low level prospect either

His BTV value is about what Paulino is worth. He is not going to cost 2-3 "prized prospects."

 

If he did, I'm in agreement on not trading for any rental.

[moonslav59]

well he's not coming for some low level prospect either

 

It's hard to know. Paulino is SP's #17 prospect. Maybe it would take Paulino and Mata (#18.)

 

It all depends on what one other GM might offer and us topping them. I think Stroman gets traded to the highest bidder. He will not stay with the Cubs for the rest of 2023.

 

Would it take Paulino plus Walter or Murphy? Maybe. Would I do that? Probably.

 

Would the Cubs? It all depends on how their scouts value our prospects offered.

[notin]

The guy is a head case that's why and he'd only be a rental and would cost too many of Bloom's prized prospects to acquire. Never said the guy couldn't pitch.

 

Your arguments are all over the place.

 

And Marcus “Head Case” Stroman is beloved by his teammates out here, who call him “HDMH”. (Height Doesn’t Measure Heart)

[notin]

well he's not coming for some low level prospect either

 

Most likely a promising A baller.

 

I think the BTV valuation is probably close. If it took someone like Romero (whom BTV labels a “Moderate Overpay” in this case), that wouldn’t surprise me.

 

It’s not going to cost Mayer or Anthony or Bleis. Maybe Rafaela for a bigger overpay, but I think Bloom walks or looks elsewhere…

[Hugh2]

yeah but how many last place finishes did the Orioles have before reaching this level? It would take at least 3 more last place finishes for the Sox to match them.

 

False equivalency, Baltimore doesn’t spend. LA is a better model, they focus big on drafting well, scouting and building up their farm. Then they spend big, and the results have been pretty darn good in LA.

[Hugh2]

Your arguments are all over the place.

 

And Marcus “Head Case” Stroman is beloved by his teammates out here, who call him “HDMH”. (Height Doesn’t Measure Heart)

 

“Only being a rental” lowers the return.

 

If you want to keep the farm strong by not depleting it and you still want to strengthen the big league club for a possible playoff run…a rental is what you should be looking at.

[moonslav59]

Your arguments are all over the place.

 

And Marcus “Head Case” Stroman is beloved by his teammates out here, who call him “HDMH”. (Height Doesn’t Measure Heart)

 

The Jays tried hard to re-sign him and reportedly interested in trading for him, now. You'd think they'd know if being a "headcase" is an issue.

[moonslav59]

If you go by BTV, do the math...

 

Current Value of 2 month Rentals

 

9.7 Giolito CWS

8.8 Montgomery STL

8.5 Snell SDP

6.1 Stroman CHC

5.7 ERod DET

2.1 W Miley MIL

 

Current value of possible return players:

9 Alcantara & Romero

6 Paulino

5 Drohan

4 Perales, Wikelman, EValdez & Walter

3 Meidroth & E R-C

2.5 Hickey & Brannon

2.4 Abreu, DHam, Jordan & Monegro

2.2 Bastrado, Mata & Murphy

2.1 Encarnacion

2.0 Guerrero, Castro, Refsnyder, Bonaci, Fernandez, Blalock & Lugo

 

There should be no need to trade "prized prospects" for any of these rentals listed.

 

I would probably not trade Romero for any of them, but it might take that.

[Larry Cook]

If you go by BTV, do the math...

 

Current Value of 2 month Rentals

 

9.7 Giolito CWS

8.8 Montgomery STL

8.5 Snell SDP

6.1 Stroman CHC

5.7 ERod DET

2.1 W Miley MIL

 

Current value of possible return players:

9 Alcantara & Romero

6 Paulino

5 Drohan

4 Perales, Wikelman, EValdez & Walter

3 Meidroth & E R-C

2.5 Hickey & Brannon

2.4 Abreu, DHam, Jordan & Monegro

2.2 Bastrado, Mata & Murphy

2.1 Encarnacion

2.0 Guerrero, Castro, Refsnyder, Bonaci, Fernandez, Blalock & Lugo

 

There should be no need to trade "prized prospects" for any of these rentals listed.

 

I would probably not trade Romero for any of them, but it might take that.

 

And what if Rodriguez does not opt out?

 

Would Hang’em Chaim spend 49 million for 3 years of Rodriguez

[moonslav59]

And what if Rodriguez does not opt out?

 

Would Hang’em Chaim spend 49 million for 3 years of Rodriguez

 

At this point, that money looks safer than it did in March.

 

Okay, throw out ERod from the list, if you please. The point remains the same. It won't cost much to get one of the rentals. (We could even get two.)

[notin]

And what if Rodriguez does not opt out?

 

Would Hang’em Chaim spend 49 million for 3 years of Rodriguez

 

Find me a better SP who will sign for $16mill AAV or less, and do so for only three years…

[moonslav59]

Find me a better SP who will sign for $16mill AAV or less, and do so for only three years…

 

I'd be fine with ERod, coming back, despite the worries about his issues, last year.

 

I'm not sure he'd be my first pick.

 

If he finishes out the year, well, he will get a better contract on the open market.

[oldtimer]

I'd be fine with ERod, coming back, despite the worries about his issues, last year.

 

I'm not sure he'd be my first pick.

 

If he finishes out the year, well, he will get a better contract on the open market.

 

Going on a losing streak before the trade deadline draws into question the wisdom of buying buyers. Will we have enough pitching to make the playoffs? It is a legitimate question to me at this point.

[moonslav59]

Going on a losing streak before the trade deadline draws into question the wisdom of buying buyers. Will we have enough pitching to make the playoffs? It is a legitimate question to me at this point.

 

I’m all for trading Paulino, Drohan, Mata and Jordan for 2 rentals like Stroman and Giolito, unless we lose 6 out of 8 before the deadline.

 

I’m not for trading away top prospects for a long shot chance.

[Larry Cook]

I’m all for trading Paulino, Drohan, Mata and Jordan for 2 rentals like Stroman and Giolito, unless we lose 6 out of 8 before the deadline.

 

I’m not for trading away top prospects for a long shot chance.

 

Who are our minor league untouchables? I have 5.

 

1.) Mayer

2.) Blies

3.) Anthony

4.) winkleman

5.) Perales

[moonslav59]

Who are our minor league untouchables? I have 5.

 

1.) Mayer

2.) Blies

3.) Anthony

4.) winkleman

5.) Perales

 

With Verdugo having just one more year of control, and Yoshida looking like he may replace Turner at DH, once he leaves, I'm starting to think Rafaela might move back into my top 5 pr 6 "untouchables." In theory, I don't think anyone is untouchable. I'd trade any of these guys for a 4+ year controlled solid SP'er or highly ranked pitching prospect.

 

I might go:

1. Mayer

2. Anthony

3. Bleis

4. Wikelman

5. Rafaela

6. Perales (He is rule 5 this winter but will not make the 26, so maybe we don't want to use up a slot on the 40 with a longer shot prospect.)

7. Romero or Yorke (We should keep one.)

 

 

I do not want to trade these high ceiling prospects:

Joh Garcia

Meidroth

E R-C

 

Maybe our top non-untouchables might be:

1. Yorke or Romero (not both)

2. Drohan (His stock is likely falling as he struggles in AA.)

3. Murphy or Walter (maybe not both)

4. EValdez (especially if we keep both Yorke and Romero)

5. Bonaci

6. Jordan

7. Paulino

8. Mata (on 40 man, now)

9. Hickey (The guy keeps hitting and hitting.)

10. D Hamilton (may need MI depth until Mayer is ML ready.)

11. Abreu (see notes on OF needs)

 

 

[Randy Red Sox]

He's a head case. Where I live we get loads of Jays coverage and trust me most people don't want Stroman back.

The Jays tried hard to re-sign him and reportedly interested in trading for him, now. You'd think they'd know if being a "headcase" is an issue.