Trade Deadline 2023

[moonslav59]

These trade proposals just scream hiking a 13,000’foot mountain and turning around at 12,000 feet.

 

Why trade so much future for 1-2 years. When you can keep your future and emulate exactly what you want to trade for in next years free agent class, which is more flush with pitching than we’ve seen for a very very very long time.

 

 

The idea would be to extend Bieber of Cease or Giolito.

 

I'm not sure, if we are "close enough" to take a plunge like this, either.

[moonslav59]

Bieber can also be a stand in for any number of other trade pieces.

 

The 1.3 years of control makes him a little different from others.

[mvp 78]

The idea would be to extend Bieber of Cease or Giolito.

 

I'm not sure, if we are "close enough" to take a plunge like this, either.

 

They say they are close.

[Hugh2]

The idea would be to extend Bieber of Cease or Giolito.

 

I'm not sure, if we are "close enough" to take a plunge like this, either.

 

Ok fine BUT why spend all those assets just to pay the guy money, when you have a ton of top pitching talent on the free agent market you can just give the money too next year?

 

I don't like it.

[moonslav59]

Ok fine BUT why spend all those assets just to pay the guy money, when you have a ton of top pitching talent on the free agent market you can just give the money too next year?

 

I don't like it.

 

I'm not necessarily "for" trading top prospects, especially for rentals, even if you can extend them at a good rate.

 

I don't think we are "close enough" to take the plunge, right now. I'm not a believer in the playoffs are a crapshoot, like many here are, but it does happen, sometimes.

 

Having the pitcher on your roster and extending them can sometimes work well, as you often get a slightly better contract deal. If not, I agree, just wait and sign the guy.

 

That was my big beef about the Kimbrell trade. The guy was making FA money, at the time, and we gave up several prospects for him. The price of top closers skyrocketed afterwards, so that ended up changing that dynamic of the grading, but still...

 

The Pedro trade and extension worked.

The Schilling trade worked- not the mini extension.

The Beckett trade and extension worked.

The Sale trade worked. The extension did not.

The Porcello trade and extension worked out okay.

 

Am I missing any pitcher trade & extends? Our record on these has been pretty good.

Edited July 13, 2023 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

They say they are close.

 

We should know by now, that what they say matters very little.

[Hugh2]

I'm not necessarily "for" trading top prospects, especially for rentals, even if you can extend them at a good rate.

 

I don't think we are "close enough" to take the plunge, right now. I'm not a believer in the playoffs are a crapshoot, like many here are, but it does happen, sometimes.

 

Having the pitcher on your roster and extending them can sometimes work well, as you often get a slightly better contract deal. If not, I agree, just wait and sign the guy.

 

That was my big beef about the Kimbrell trade. The guy was making FA money, at the time, and we gave up several prospects for him. The price of top closers skyrocketed afterwards, so that ended up changing that dynamic of the grading, but still...

 

The Pedro trade and extension worked.

The Schilling trade worked- not the mini extension.

The Beckett trade and extension worked.

The Sale trade worked. The extension did not.

The Porcello trade and extension worked out okay.

 

Am I missing any pitcher trade & extends? Our record on these has been pretty good.

 

It has been very good, which is why I’m more confident they won’t trade for an ACE this deadline.

[moonslav59]

It has been very good, which is why I’m more confident they won’t trade for an ACE this deadline.

 

I don't think top brass believes we are an ace away from being top contenders for a ring. I don't either.

 

I had hopes we might be that close before last winter's FA signing period, but all Hell broke loose on contract costs.

 

I brought up the trade for 2 solid pitchers (Cease and Gilito) and listed out the effect on the roster and staff as a question to posters to see if we think we might be 2 solid pitchers away from top contention.

 

You point is one I agree on: even if we are good enough to be just 2 pitchers from contending for a ring in 2023, it's not worth trading away much for the extended future for a 1 or 2 year window. Extending an added pitcher affects both the budget and the future farm infusion.

 

It's not worth it. One can argue it's not worth it, even if we are one ace away.

 

[mvp 78]

We should know by now, that what they say matters very little.

 

The O's went from perennial doormat to contender overnight. The Sox could get there quickly depending on how the farm matures and if they spend their money wisely.

[moonslav59]

The O's went from perennial doormat to contender overnight. The Sox could get there quickly depending on how the farm matures and if they spend their money wisely.

 

In terms of win-losses, yes, pretty much overnight, but their rebuild took many years.

 

Sucking so badly also allowed them to draft highly. They also traded away top players, where Sox fans would not stand for even for one year- like the 2022 non sell off

[moonslav59]

The O's went from perennial doormat to contender overnight. The Sox could get there quickly depending on how the farm matures and if they spend their money wisely.

 

Do you really think any GM could have built a winner with the situation Bloom was handed?

 

Not do a better job, but actually build a championship caliber team with this budget, lack of ML ready prospects, inured and declining carry over vets?

 

I do think someone could have done better, but comparing Bloom's task to the O's is like apples to oranges.

 

The O's were 83-79, last year and still sold off, at the deadline.

 

If it was Bloom who kept us from selling off, last summer, I'd tend to agree with your point to some extent, but I'm not so sure it was his idea.

Edited July 13, 2023 by moonslav59

[Maxbialystock]

The O's went from perennial doormat to contender overnight. The Sox could get there quickly depending on how the farm matures and if they spend their money wisely.

 

Neat! I agree you can spend less and still build a "contender," maybe even one as good as Marlon Brando. I'm not sure the Orioles are the ideal model because I think John Henry is a very different owner from Peter Angelos.

Edited July 13, 2023 by Maxbialystock

[mvp 78]

Do you really think any GM could have built a winner with the situation Bloom was handed?

 

Not do a better job, but actually build a championship caliber team with this budget, lack of ML ready prospects, inured and declining carry over vets?

 

I do think someone could have done better, but comparing Bloom's task to the O's is like apples to oranges.

 

The O's were 83-79, last year and still sold off, at the deadline.

 

If it was Bloom who kept us from selling off, last summer, I'd tend to agree with your point to some extent, but I'm not so sure it was his idea.

 

You always have a great way of not just moving the goalposts, but completely erasing them.

[Dipre]

FWIW, I think Bieber might be cooked and is not a long term answer.

[Maxbialystock]

You always have a great way of not just moving the goalposts, but completely erasing them.

 

Really? I completely agree with moonslav that Bloom's situation was and is completely different from any Sox GM/VP of the last quarter century if not longer.

 

For evidence, I cite just one stat. For his last two years, 2018 and 2019, DD's payrolls were the highest in MLB. Today the Sox payroll is 15th in MLB.

[Dipre]

Really? I completely agree with moonslav that Bloom's situation was and is completely different from any Sox GM/VP of the last quarter century if not longer.

 

For evidence, I cite just one stat. For his last two years, 2018 and 2019, DD's payrolls were the highest in MLB. Today the Sox payroll is 15th in MLB.

 

I love what Bloom is doing in the minors, but mvp is correct in stating that his future plan being sound and his current execution (at the ML level) leaving much to be desired are not mutually exclusive.

[Bellhorn04]

Really? I completely agree with moonslav that Bloom's situation was and is completely different from any Sox GM/VP of the last quarter century if not longer.

 

For evidence, I cite just one stat. For his last two years, 2018 and 2019, DD's payrolls were the highest in MLB. Today the Sox payroll is 15th in MLB.

 

The payroll numbers always require further analysis. DD inherited some big salaries from Ben-notably Pablo, Hanley, Pedroia and Porcello-of which only Porcello had any value.

[Maxbialystock]

Ay, there's the rub.

 

Fascinating story, though. Maybe even definitive. In his 12 previous seasons, he never once had back to back seasons in which he started 32 or more games in both seasons. He has two such seasons out of 12: 2014 with Miami and 2021 with the Sox. 2021 with the Sox was easily his best season ever, but this season with Texas could be better.

[Maxbialystock]

The payroll numbers always require further analysis. DD inherited some big salaries from Ben-notably Pablo, Hanley, Pedroia and Porcello-of which only Porcello had any value.

 

As Bloom inherited Price ($16M), Pedroia ($12M), and Sale ($30M). Plus last year he paid JDM $20M.

[Maxbialystock]

The payroll numbers always require further analysis. DD inherited some big salaries from Ben-notably Pablo, Hanley, Pedroia and Porcello-of which only Porcello had any value.

 

Check the 2016 Sox stats, where you will discover that Pedroia's WAR was 5.6 and HanRam's 2.8 (but his OPS was .866 with 30 dingers--he just stunk on defense). The 2016 Sox DD inherited led MLB in runs scored. I agree Pablo was useless, but that didn't seem to make much difference in results. Even the Sox pitching wasn't all that bad--team ERA was 9th.

[Bellhorn04]

Check the 2016 Sox stats, where you will discover that Pedroia's WAR was 5.6 and HanRam's 2.8 (but his OPS was .866 with 30 dingers--he just stunk on defense). The 2016 Sox DD inherited led MLB in runs scored. I agree Pablo was useless, but that didn't seem to make much difference in results. Even the Sox pitching wasn't all that bad--team ERA was 9th.

 

Right. I was only talking about the 2018-2019 payroll numbers. (Hanley's last year on the payroll was 2018.)

[moonslav59]

You always have a great way of not just moving the goalposts, but completely erasing them.

 

Yes, you are right. The O’s totally rebuilt in one year. Sucking for a long time and being able to trade away all your best vets for prospects is something Bloom was allowed to do but chose not to.

 

Thanks for pointing out my faults. It must be so nice being perfect, like you.

[mvp 78]

Yes, you are right. The O’s totally rebuilt in one year. Sucking for a long time and being able to trade away all your best vets for prospects is something Bloom was allowed to do but chose not to.

 

Thanks for pointing out my faults. It must be so nice being perfect, like you.

 

Yes, it's really great.

[dgalehouse]

The three wild card rule creates a situation where there seems to be many " buyers " and few " sellers " at the deadline . That would seem to indicate a seller's market.

Should be a lot of competition for acquiring the available talent.

[Hugh2]

The three wild card rule creates a situation where there seems to be many " buyers " and few " sellers " at the deadline . That would seem to indicate a seller's market.

Should be a lot of competition for acquiring the available talent.

 

It certainly does create a perplexing situation. No one likes a quitter and fans always want a winner, I could get on board with the ideal of ownership actually followed through on going big next year and added viable pieces.

 

It’s also the classic instant gratification vs. long term reward dilemma. Which is an argument I’d normally make, however it gets tougher to make that argument if you finish in last place 3 out of 4 years.

[Hugh2]

Yes, you are right. The O’s totally rebuilt in one year. Sucking for a long time and being able to trade away all your best vets for prospects is something Bloom was allowed to do but chose not to.

 

Thanks for pointing out my faults. It must be so nice being perfect, like you.

 

But, did they have a top farm system? Or did they trade all their young guys away?

[moonslav59]

But, did they have a top farm system?

 

Of course they did, and it didn't take them "overnight" to build it up. It took longer than 3.5 years.

 

They also added to the farm via trades.

[mvp 78]

Of course they did, and it didn't take them "overnight" to build it up. It took longer than 3.5 years.

 

They also added to the farm via trades.

 

I didn't say they "built it up overnight." I said they went from doormats to contenders overnight and that the Sox could do the same if their farm talent matured. Not sure how that's controversial? Bloom has had time to get the meat of the farm to AA. The talent isn't that far away now. If the bats are good, Bloom should be ready to spend heavily on some arms and get this team to win.

[moonslav59]

Look at the Braves. They made some nice signings and also let some key players go. They made some key trades, too, involving prospects. Still, they saw way more than 1 guy come up from 2017 to 2022.

 

'22 Elder, Harris II, Grissom

'21 Strider

'20 W Contreras, I Anderson

'19 Riley

'18 Acuna, K Wright, Soroka

'17 Albies, Swanson, Milner & Fried

 

That's 10 guys from '17-22

 

They also traded some good prospects for Sean Murphy and others.

 

How many of the O's players were called up between mid '17 and mid '22?

 

O's Ages

22 G Henderson

23 C Cowser

25 Rutschman

26 Mountcastle, Bradish

27 Kremer, Hays

28 Mullins, Santender, Mateo, T Wells, F Bautista

29 Urias, O'Hearn, Y Cano

 

How many of these guys were added to the system within the last 3.5 years?

How many came up between mid 2017 and mid 2022?

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Dipre]

I didn't say they "built it up overnight." I said they went from doormats to contenders overnight and that the Sox could do the same if their farm talent matured. Not sure how that's controversial? Bloom has had time to get the meat of the farm to AA. The talent isn't that far away now. If the bats are good, Bloom should be ready to spend heavily on some arms and get this team to win.

 

Spend heavily on arms is the scariest line you can mutter regarding baseball.