5/09/2023 Red Sox at Atlanta

[Maxbialystock]

Half of them or so have been balls.

 

True. He started out throwing strikes, but the first batter singled and the second one hit a homer on the first pitch, a curve right down the middle. So, lesson learned, and Pivetta walked the next Braves hitter and hit the next one with a pitch.

 

Now that the Braves have a 5-0 lead, Pivetta can settle down and show us how solid he is when he's already given the game away.

[iortiz]

Pivetta is collapsing. Again. Wonder whether Cora just gave up.

[Jasonbay44]

This is about to be a big deficit . Pivetta has nothing

[d-money]

Could be a terrible night with the Celtics gagging like they always do. My goodness form the bruins to the Celtics.

[Maxbialystock]

Valdez isn’t much of a defender and only has 17 minor league innings at SS

 

If there is a game in which errors should be tolerated, this one has to be it. In 3 innings Pivetta gave up 7 hits and 3 walks.

 

Whoops, there goes another rubber tree plant! 7-1 Braves, courtesy of Mr. Pivetta.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Paxton is supposed to pitch in the next series in Boston vs the Cards. Does that qualify for a 'whoopie?'

[vegasbob]

With Yoshida, Duran, and Verdugo in the outfield, Kike plays infield or not at all. Duvall is probably going to replace Duran.

 

So , not at all, is in fact an option?

Edited May 10, 2023 by vegasbob

[Jasonbay44]

If there is a game in which errors should be tolerated, this one has to be it. In 3 innings Pivetta gave up 7 hits and 3 walks.

 

Whoops, there goes another rubber tree plant! 7-1 Braves, courtesy of Mr. Pivetta.

 

I was just saying in general I don’t think he can play SS at the major league level. Obviously it doesn’t matter who played short this game, Pivetta decided to s*** himself on the mound.

[d-money]

My goodness what an awful night. I can take the sox being a bad team but the Celtics are just pathetic and gagging at home.

[Jasonbay44]

f*** yeah, it’s Ryan Brasier time!

[vegasbob]

Keep in mind that during the 8 game win streak, the Sox scored no less than 5 runs ( once) and 6 runs ( once ) , all others were 7 or more runs. The second half of the lineup participated in a meaningful way. On Sunday, nobody hit much and tonight Devers through Mc Guire ( 4-9) are a combined 2 for 15 ( plus 3 walks) . That combined with Pivetta's awful outing gets you in the big hole you are in BoSox. Get something going tomorrow night and split this banana.

[vegasbob]

I would prefer that Dalbec , hitting for Casas, hits a 3 run HR.

 

DalbeKKKK

[Jasonbay44]

I feel like every time Dalbec pitch hits he strikes out

[iortiz]

I feel like every time Dalbec pitch hits he strikes out

 

His future at the time was promising, I think he is officially done. He is not that young either. It's a shame but it is baseball. Some pan out and some don't. Hopefully it's not the same for Casas. We need badly a slugger at 1B.

[iortiz]

I didn't understand all night long the zone of the ump.

[moonslav59]

I feel like every time Dalbec pitch hits he strikes out

 

Career OPS: .752

 

Career OPS as PH: .750

[moonslav59]

His future at the time was promising, I think he is officially done. He is not that young either. It's a shame but it is baseball. Some pan out and some don't. Hopefully it's not the same for Casas. We need badly a slugger at 1B.

 

It's like the pitchers adjusted to him, and he could never counter-adjust.

 

First 2 seasons (545 PAs)

 

.244 33 94 with 62 XBHs (.819 OPS)

 

Adjusted to 650, that's like 40 HRs and 113 RBI and 74 XBHs.

 

 

Last 2 years: .649 OPS

 

projected to 650:

 

.214 23 75 w 44 XBHs

 

[Nick]

Thanks to Pivetta, this thread is only 4 pages long.

 

Everyone decided not to hang around.

[moonslav59]

Thanks to Pivetta, this thread is only 4 pages long.

 

Everyone decided not to hang around.

 

I watched the whole game on delay, but there just wasn't much to comment on.

[Maxbialystock]

I watched the whole game on delay, but there just wasn't much to comment on.

 

You are either a super fan or a candidate for sainthood. I too could not watch it live, which was especially exasperating because it was on TBS (as well as mlb.com, etc), and the TBS station was literally blacked out for me. The presumption behind this treatment is that, instead of watching the game from home, I will drive 8 hours to Atlanta to see it and then drive 8 hours back. Madness, madness.

 

Anyway, I had to watch the first inning to see how the wheels came off. And, frankly, I didn't think Pivetta looked all that bad. Leadoff single was against a good hitter with the count 3-2. Then came that first pitch dinger, righty vs. lefty on a curve that was in the middle of the zone. However, it wasn't a terrible curve and it was the first pitch--but the Atlanta hitter just got all of it.

 

The walk that followed was also on a 3-2 count, so it wasn't like Pivetta was completely wild. Then the HBP in which the Atlanta batter "took" the hit by barely moving back and getting it in the shoulder. Sox hitters rarely do that. When you throw inside to Sox hitters, they jump 6 feet in the air, 6 feet backward, or throw themselves on the ground to avoid getting HBP'd. To Sox hitters an inside pitch is like a rattlesnake with triple-power venom.

 

Next came the K of Rosario for the first freaking out of the inning.

 

Then came the WP on a ball that hit the ground behind the plate, so my no doubt unfair take is that McGuire could have done a better job. Anyway, that put runners on 2d and 3d with one out, so Cora--the score is still just 2-0--brings the infield in to prevent the guy on 3d from scoring on a grounder. Of course the grounder gets through for a single and run #3, plus now another runner on 3b with just 1 out. With the infielders now at double play depth, a grounder to Devers at 3b brings home the 4th run with the ground out (and no GIDP).

 

Finally the fly out for #3, and Pivetta has thrown 31 pitches in the first inning. The Braves did not blow him away. They hit just the one dinger on a curve ball, and everything else was singles, HBP, walk, WP, etc, etc. They bled him to death.

 

Statistically, however, Pivetta's WAR dropped from +0.2 to -0.2, which puts him in a tie with Chris Sale. The only Sox starter with a plus WAR is Houck with +0.3.

[Bellhorn04]

 

Statistically, however, Pivetta's WAR dropped from +0.2 to -0.2, which puts him in a tie with Chris Sale. The only Sox starter with a plus WAR is Houck with +0.3.

 

Fangraphs WAR:

 

Sale 0.6

Houck 0.6

Jansen 0.6

Wink 0.4

Pivetta -0.2

[moonslav59]

fWAR is a more kind to some pitchers:

 

0.6 Sale & Houck (+ Jansen)

0.4 Wink

0.2 Schreiber

0.1 Crawford & Brasier

0.0 Martin, Bernardino, Bello, Littell, Kelly, Whitlock

 

-0.1 Bleier

-0.2 Pivetta & Ort

-0.3 Kluber

[Bellhorn04]

Beat ya again!

[moonslav59]

Beat ya again!

 

I'm looking over my shoulder.

 

[Maxbialystock]

Fangraphs WAR:

 

Sale 0.6

Houck 0.6

Jansen 0.6

Wink 0.4

Pivetta -0.2

 

I don't know how WAR or fWAR is calculated, but I have no quarrel with those fWAR numbers. Sale has 3 quality starts so far, and the rest of the rotation (Houck, Kluber, Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, and Whitlock) has 4.

 

I think Sale needs to do a better job of staying focused and calm, but he is this team's ace.

 

Houck is the big surprise to me.

Edited May 10, 2023 by Maxbialystock

[Bellhorn04]

I don't know how WAR or fWAR is calculated, but I have no quarrel with those fWAR numbers. Sale has 3 quality starts so far, and the rest of the rotation (Houck, Kluber, Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, and Whitlock) has 4.

 

I think Sale needs to do a better job of staying focused and calm, but he is this team's ace.

 

Houck is the big surprise to me.

 

I think the simplest way to explain the difference between Fangraphs WAR for pitchers and Baseball-Reference WAR is that Fangraphs is based on what "should have happened", eliminating factors out of the pitcher's control, and B-R is based on what actually happened.

[Old Red]

You are either a super fan or a candidate for sainthood. I too could not watch it live, which was especially exasperating because it was on TBS (as well as mlb.com, etc), and the TBS station was literally blacked out for me. The presumption behind this treatment is that, instead of watching the game from home, I will drive 8 hours to Atlanta to see it and then drive 8 hours back. Madness, madness.

 

Anyway, I had to watch the first inning to see how the wheels came off. And, frankly, I didn't think Pivetta looked all that bad. Leadoff single was against a good hitter with the count 3-2. Then came that first pitch dinger, righty vs. lefty on a curve that was in the middle of the zone. However, it wasn't a terrible curve and it was the first pitch--but the Atlanta hitter just got all of it.

 

The walk that followed was also on a 3-2 count, so it wasn't like Pivetta was completely wild. Then the HBP in which the Atlanta batter "took" the hit by barely moving back and getting it in the shoulder. Sox hitters rarely do that. When you throw inside to Sox hitters, they jump 6 feet in the air, 6 feet backward, or throw themselves on the ground to avoid getting HBP'd. To Sox hitters an inside pitch is like a rattlesnake with triple-power venom.

 

Next came the K of Rosario for the first freaking out of the inning.

 

Then came the WP on a ball that hit the ground behind the plate, so my no doubt unfair take is that McGuire could have done a better job. Anyway, that put runners on 2d and 3d with one out, so Cora--the score is still just 2-0--brings the infield in to prevent the guy on 3d from scoring on a grounder. Of course the grounder gets through for a single and run #3, plus now another runner on 3b with just 1 out. With the infielders now at double play depth, a grounder to Devers at 3b brings home the 4th run with the ground out (and no GIDP).

 

Finally the fly out for #3, and Pivetta has thrown 31 pitches in the first inning. The Braves did not blow him away. They hit just the one dinger on a curve ball, and everything else was singles, HBP, walk, WP, etc, etc. They bled him to death.

 

Statistically, however, Pivetta's WAR dropped from +0.2 to -0.2, which puts him in a tie with Chris Sale. The only Sox starter with a plus WAR is Houck with +0.3.

I didn’t watch the game last night, because I suffered through the C’s, and I don’t watch a replay of something that has already been played, but if someone told me someone had thrown 31 pitches in a inning, and had given up singles, HBP, walk, WP, and a HR i don’t care if they bled him to death, or not I would say he sucked.

[Maxbialystock]

I think the simplest way to explain the difference between Fangraphs WAR for pitchers and Baseball-Reference WAR is that Fangraphs is based on what "should have happened", eliminating factors out of the pitcher's control, and B-R is based on what actually happened.

 

Frankly, I don't like "eliminating factors out of the pitcher's control," and I'll tell you why. The ERA rule applies to all runs scored after what should have been the third out. And it makes no difference if the pitcher gives up 4 dingers in a row after what should have been, say, a caught third out popup.

 

And let me take that one step further. While I do support the concept of "earned runs" to a degree, I also think much more of a pitcher who gets guys out after there was an error committed. In the same way, I think it's cool when the pitcher acknowledges a great defensive play that prevents a hit and/or run.

[moonslav59]

Frankly, I don't like "eliminating factors out of the pitcher's control," and I'll tell you why. The ERA rule applies to all runs scored after what should have been the third out. And it makes no difference if the pitcher gives up 4 dingers in a row after what should have been, say, a caught third out popup.

 

And let me take that one step further. While I do support the concept of "earned runs" to a degree, I also think much more of a pitcher who gets guys out after there was an error committed. In the same way, I think it's cool when the pitcher acknowledges a great defensive play that prevents a hit and/or run.

 

Certainly there are serious flaws with the earned run rules, but it is hard enough to get 3 outs, and asking for 4 is much more.

 

I agree on a HR being an HR, no matter what.

[Bellhorn04]

Frankly, I don't like "eliminating factors out of the pitcher's control," and I'll tell you why. The ERA rule applies to all runs scored after what should have been the third out. And it makes no difference if the pitcher gives up 4 dingers in a row after what should have been, say, a caught third out popup.

 

And let me take that one step further. While I do support the concept of "earned runs" to a degree, I also think much more of a pitcher who gets guys out after there was an error committed. In the same way, I think it's cool when the pitcher acknowledges a great defensive play that prevents a hit and/or run.

 

WAR is intended to eliminate those luck factors you're talking about, that's why it should be fairer than ERA.