Red Sox Starting Rotation 2023

[Maxbialystock]

Thanks too for this discussion, especially on Wacha and Eovaldi. To be honest, I think griping about Eovaldi is mostly hindsight. The guy has really good stuff, which we saw in 2018 and again in 2021, but this is his 11th season, and he's pitched 200 innings once (2014) and 182 innings once (2021 for the Sox). Last year it was 109. In 2019, 54. The Rangers are paying Eovaldi $34M for two years, which to me is a pretty big risk.

 

Right now I almost like our rotation--especially Sale (who has literally astounded me with his comeback), Paxton (still early days), and Bello (also early). Kluber, Houck, and Pivetta have all had issues, but all three have also had more than one decent start. And lurking on the IL are two other guys who have started: Whitlock and Crawford. And despite my whining the past couple of days, we probably have a decent bullpen.

 

I just looked at the Spotrac version of the Sox salaries. Like almost all MLB teams, the Sox carry 13 pitchers and 13 position players. The Sox are paying the position players about $106M and the pitchers about $72M. Of that $106M for position players, $30M is going to three guys on the IL--Story, Duvall, and Mondesi--all three of whom will miss at least half this season. About $4M is going to pitchers on the IL.

[moonslav59]

Thanks too for this discussion, especially on Wacha and Eovaldi. To be honest, I think griping about Eovaldi is mostly hindsight. The guy has really good stuff, which we saw in 2018 and again in 2021, but this is his 11th season, and he's pitched 200 innings once (2014) and 182 innings once (2021 for the Sox). Last year it was 109. In 2019, 54. The Rangers are paying Eovaldi $34M for two years, which to me is a pretty big risk.

 

Right now I almost like our rotation--especially Sale (who has literally astounded me with his comeback), Paxton (still early days), and Bello (also early). Kluber, Houck, and Pivetta have all had issues, but all three have also had more than one decent start. And lurking on the IL are two other guys who have started: Whitlock and Crawford. And despite my whining the past couple of days, we probably have a decent bullpen.

 

I just looked at the Spotrac version of the Sox salaries. Like almost all MLB teams, the Sox carry 13 pitchers and 13 position players. The Sox are paying the position players about $106M and the pitchers about $72M. Of that $106M for position players, $30M is going to three guys on the IL--Story, Duvall, and Mondesi--all three of whom will miss at least half this season. About $4M is going to pitchers on the IL.

 

Certainly a questionable distribution of budget allotments, especially when you consider we have a lot of young and cheap everyday players on the roster and coming up, sooner than pitchers.

[Maxbialystock]

Certainly a questionable distribution of budget allotments, especially when you consider we have a lot of young and cheap everyday players on the roster and coming up, sooner than pitchers.

 

I have never played fantasy baseball, so am clueless about how much to spend and where. That said, I believe JH is driving the decision-making on big contracts and is loathe to invest heavily in starters--as he was willing to do in the past.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

NOBODY wanted these guys? That's not true. I was very much in favor in re-signing Eovaldi. Me and 5 Gloves are probably the 2 biggest Nate fanboys here.

 

Many fans say a pitcher's expensive longterm contract is worth it -- even if he was mediocre or not much of a star for more than a year -- as long as he helped win a ring.

 

If a couple of good weeks in October made it worth the pain -- DiceK and Beckett in '07, Lackey in '13, Price in '18 -- then Eovaldi was a better investment for two memorable postseasons (the Sox didn't win it all in '21, but knocking out the Yankees was the next best thing).

[moonslav59]

I have never played fantasy baseball, so am clueless about how much to spend and where. That said, I believe JH is driving the decision-making on big contracts and is loathe to invest heavily in starters--as he was willing to do in the past.

 

I don't blame him. Look at most of the big pitcher signings, last winter.

 

I keep saying a trade is the way to go, despite my desire to let the farm bring us to a winning trend.

 

Some posters nearly took my head off for just suggesting we trade Casas for a young SP'er.

 

With the hole we have at SS, I'd hate to trade Mayer, but how else do we get the next Luis Castillo? Rafaela, Mata, Romero & Walter will not do.

[moonslav59]

Many fans say a pitcher's expensive longterm contract is worth it -- even if he was mediocre or not much of a star for more than a year -- as long as he helped win a ring.

 

If a couple of good weeks in October made it worth the pain -- DiceK and Beckett in '07, Lackey in '13, Price in '18 -- then Eovaldi was a better investment for two memorable postseasons (the Sox didn't win it all in '21, but knocking out the Yankees was the next best thing).

 

One scary thing about big FA pitcher signings is that too many times, these guys don't even deliver year 1 and 2. I get the trade-off on less in later years, but when you factor in the risk of immediate failure, I tend to shy away from liking these signings.

 

Note: I did see Price (and Scherzer the year before) as the type of ace worth the risk. They were not too old, and they both had long histories of success and durability.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don't blame him. Look at most of the big pitcher signings, last winter.

 

I keep saying a trade is the way to go, despite my desire to let the farm bring us to a winning trend.

 

Some posters nearly took my head off for just suggesting we trade Casas for a young SP'er.

 

With the hole we have at SS, I'd hate to trade Mayer, but how else do we get the next Luis Castillo? Rafaela, Mata, Romero & Walter will not do.

 

Everyone knows it has to be painful -- to get, you have to give.

 

But we (well, the front office) has/have to identify the up-and-coming core of the next great hopefuls... then keep them and build around them.

 

Casas and Mayer look to be two as of now, the best prospects or young players in the system at their respective positions... meanwhile, the generic redundancy of the following may make two of these four expendable trade bait: Yorke-Romero and Rafaela-Bleis.

 

Those are just top 5 or 10 men. Others have already seen their stock rise, like Hickey C, Ravelo SS, Anthony OF, etc.

 

For Bloom to wait this long before dealing any actually good prospects either means the Red Sox are continuing their tradition of overrating their system... or Chaim has a long leash on his job security and is content to wait for maximum development time.

[moonslav59]

Everyone knows it has to be painful -- to get, you have to give.

 

But we (well, the front office) has/have to identify the up-and-coming core of the next great hopefuls... then keep them and build around them.

 

Casas and Mayer look to be two as of now, the best prospects or young players in the system at their respective positions... meanwhile, the generic redundancy of the following may make two of these four expendable trade bait: Yorke-Romero and Rafaela-Bleis.

 

Those are just top 5 or 10 men. Others have already seen their stock rise, like Hickey C, Ravelo SS, Anthony OF, etc.

 

For Bloom to wait this long before dealing any actually good prospects either means the Red Sox are continuing their tradition of overrating their system... or Chaim has a long leash on his job security and is content to wait for maximum development time.

 

The interesting thing about the long stretches of not trading top prospects involved 2 GMs who never traded one (Ben and Bloom.) Will it take a GM change to get Bloom to pull the trigger, or is it just a cycle thing, and Ben never made it to the point where he was going to make a big deal?

 

At the time of Ben's departure, I was sure he was going to make some trades- not like DD, but something big.

 

I'm not so sure about Bloom. He may need to be nudged into making one. To date, his highest ranked prospects traded have been Aldo Ramirez for Schwarber and maybe Groome for Hosmer, Ferguson & Rosier. In 3 plus years, that is pretty telling.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The interesting thing about the long stretches of not trading top prospects involved 2 GMs who never traded one (Ben and Bloom.) Will it take a GM change to get Bloom to pull the trigger, or is it just a cycle thing, and Ben never made it to the point where he was going to make a big deal?

 

At the time of Ben's departure, I was sure he was going to make some trades- not like DD, but something big.

 

I'm not so sure about Bloom. He may need to be nudged into making one. To date, his highest ranked prospects traded have been Aldo Ramirez for Schwarber and maybe Groome for Hosmer, Ferguson & Rosier. In 3 plus years, that is pretty telling.

 

Dombrowski was the anti-Bloom -- maybe he wasn't right to trade so many future big leaguers, but he was right when he said (paraphrasing here), "A lot of prospects are just prospects."

 

As for Bloom, if he... keeps on... hanging... on... does he really envision the next great Red Sox team to be a roster rife with say, the top 5 guys currently toiling in each of Worcester, Portland, Greenville, Salem, and Florida?

[mvp 78]

Dombrowski was the anti-Bloom -- maybe he wasn't right to trade so many future big leaguers, but he was right when he said (paraphrasing here), "A lot of prospects are just prospects."

 

As for Bloom, if he... keeps on... hanging... on... does he really envision the next great Red Sox team to be a roster rife with say, the top 5 guys currently toiling in each of Worcester, Portland, Greenville, Salem, and Florida?

 

Probably.

 

The 2018 team was Xander, Mookie, Benintendi, JBJ, Vazquez and Devers supplemented by outside guys. The core was homegrown. They won 108 games from what I remember.

[moonslav59]

I haven't visited the BTV site for a while, and here are the values they place on our players:

 

65 Mayer

40 Whitlock

34 Bello

30 Bleis

29 Casas

25 Rafaela

22 Yoshida

21 Houck

21 Duran

18 Dugo

11 Schreiber

10 Yorke

9.4 Crawford

8.7 Romero

8.1 McGuire

7.8 Walter

6.5 Anthony

5.1 Bonaci

5.0 Jordan

5.0 Paulino

4.0 Hickey

3.8 Mata

3.6 Valdez

3.0 Lugo

2.9 Paxton

2.7 McDonogh

2.6 Murphy

2.6 Winckowski

2.6 Wong

2.4 Abreu

2.2 Jimenez

2.1 Coffey

2.0 Mondesi

1.9 Perales & Kelly

1.7-1.8 Rosier, Hamilton, Kavadas, Pivetts, E R-C

1.4-1.6 Brannon, Chacon, Broadway, Drohan, Gonzalez, Lira, Lopez

1.3 Arroyo, Dearden, Decker, Encarnacion, Gonzalez (OF), Marcano, Martin

1.1-1.2 Binelas, Ferguson, Liu, bastardo, Dalbec, Encarnación (RHP)

1.0 Koss, Ravelo, Refsnyder, Medrioth, Rogers

 

Underwater:

-35 Story

-27 Devers

-15 Sale

-2 Kike

-2 Jansen

-1 Tapia & Turner

 

[moonslav59]

Dombrowski was the anti-Bloom -- maybe he wasn't right to trade so many future big leaguers, but he was right when he said (paraphrasing here), "A lot of prospects are just prospects."

 

As for Bloom, if he... keeps on... hanging... on... does he really envision the next great Red Sox team to be a roster rife with say, the top 5 guys currently toiling in each of Worcester, Portland, Greenville, Salem, and Florida?

 

My guess is Bloom would have to be blown away by an offer for Mayer and Bleis and maybe now, Drohan.

 

I could see him trading Casas, Rafaela and other SSs in the system, including Romero. Like I said, he may need a nudge on even moderate trades of prospects.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Probably.

 

The 2018 team was Xander, Mookie, Benintendi, JBJ, Vazquez and Devers supplemented by outside guys. The core was homegrown. They won 108 games from what I remember.

 

Fricking forgot Barnesy...

[moonslav59]

Fricking forgot Barnesy...

 

And, the 10-1 Workman.

[mvp 78]

Those guys were not core guys.

[moonslav59]

I haven't visited the BTV site for a while, and here are the values they place on our players:

 

65 Mayer

40 Whitlock

34 Bello

30 Bleis

29 Casas

25 Rafaela

22 Yoshida

21 Houck

21 Duran

18 Dugo

11 Schreiber

10 Yorke

9.4 Crawford

8.7 Romero

8.1 McGuire

7.8 Walter

6.5 Anthony

5.1 Bonaci

5.0 Jordan

5.0 Paulino

4.0 Hickey

3.8 Mata

3.6 Valdez

3.0 Lugo

2.9 Paxton

2.7 McDonogh

2.6 Winckowski, Wong, Murphy

2.2-2.4 Abreu Jimenez

1.9-2.1 Coffey, Mondesi, Perales & Kelly

1.7-1.8 Rosier, Hamilton, Kavadas, Pivetts, E R-C

1.4-1.6 Brannon, Chacon, Broadway, Drohan, Gonzalez, Lira, Lopez

1.3 Arroyo, Dearden, Decker, Encarnacion, Gonzalez (OF), Marcano, Martin

1.1-1.2 Binelas, Ferguson, Liu, bastardo, Dalbec, Encarnación (RHP)

1.0 Koss, Ravelo, Refsnyder, Medrioth, Rogers

 

Underwater:

-35 Story

-27 Devers

-15 Sale

-2 Kike

-2 Jansen

-1 Tapia & Turner

 

 

Some top ranked pitchers:

145 Alcantara

114 L Webb

68 Z Gallen

62 S Bieber

62 D Cease

58 C Burnes

48 B Singer

42 M Keller

33 J urias

[notin]

Many fans say a pitcher's expensive longterm contract is worth it -- even if he was mediocre or not much of a star for more than a year -- as long as he helped win a ring.

 

If a couple of good weeks in October made it worth the pain -- DiceK and Beckett in '07, Lackey in '13, Price in '18 -- then Eovaldi was a better investment for two memorable postseasons (the Sox didn't win it all in '21, but knocking out the Yankees was the next best thing).

 

 

Folks say that during the year they win the ring. But afterwards? It’s a weak defense of the contract at best.

 

Was Price worth it? It’s arguable that deal was part of the reason for dealing Betts…

[Bellhorn04]

Folks say that during the year they win the ring. But afterwards? It’s a weak defense of the contract at best.

 

Was Price worth it? It’s arguable that deal was part of the reason for dealing Betts…

 

But as moonslav has pointed out many times, those expensive pitching acquisitions from other organizations have been crucial to our 4 rings. I wouldn't undo any of it.

 

Time travel is an absurd concept anyway, of course.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Folks say that during the year they win the ring. But afterwards? It’s a weak defense of the contract at best.

 

Was Price worth it? It’s arguable that deal was part of the reason for dealing Betts…

 

I'd argue Price was definitely a reason for dealing Betts -- no one would take Price, even at half David, unless we included a Hall of Famer in his prime.

 

Price was toxic to the brand, and a worse signing than Sale, just because the Sox had to keep paying half his salary to make sure he was out of Boston for good.

 

Prevailing bs is that Bloom's first order as CBO was to trade Mookie. Instead, it may have been to get rid of Price and change the culture: no more sourpuss with the press, no more half-hours between pitches, no more excuses vs. the Yankees.

[Bellhorn04]

Folks say that during the year they win the ring. But afterwards? It’s a weak defense of the contract at best.

 

Was Price worth it? It’s arguable that deal was part of the reason for dealing Betts…

 

It's all just pointless jibber-jabber, but personally I don't see the logic that Price's contract led to Betts being dealt. They offered Betts $300 million after all. It appears that John Henry had a line he wouldn't cross for a contract to any player, even Betts.

[Bellhorn04]

I'd argue Price was definitely a reason for dealing Betts -- no one would take Price, even at half David, unless we included a Hall of Famer in his prime.

 

The first part is pure speculation, but that's what we're here for.

[moonslav59]

But as moonslav has pointed out many times, those expensive pitching acquisitions from other organizations have been crucial to our 4 rings. I wouldn't undo any of it.

 

Time travel is an absurd concept anyway, of course.

 

We might still have won without Price (FA), but I'm not so sure about no Sale (Trade), Lackey (FA), Beckett (Trade) or Schill & Pedro (Trade & Trade.)

Edited May 17, 2023 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

We might still have won without Price (FA), but I'm not so sure about no Lackey (FA), Beckett (Trade) or Schill & Pedro (Trade & Trade.)

 

Also Sale.

[moonslav59]

It's all just pointless jibber-jabber, but personally I don't see the logic that Price's contract led to Betts being dealt. They offered Betts $300 million after all. It appears that John Henry had a line he wouldn't cross for a contract to any player, even Betts.

 

I'll always be curious what we might have gotten for just Betts.

 

We might have been a ble to trade 3/4 Price for a bag of used balls.

[moonslav59]

Also Sale.

 

How could I have forgotten the freakin' one.

[Bellhorn04]

I'll always be curious what we might have gotten for just Betts.

 

We might have been a ble to trade 3/4 Price for a bag of used balls.

 

Price had a 2.4 fWAR in 2018, and a 2.3 fWAR in 2019, in only 107.1 IP. He wasn't quite as washed-up-looking as some are suggesting. Maybe if we traded him to a team other than the Dodgers we'd have to eat all but $10 mill a year or something like that.

[moonslav59]

Price had a 2.4 fWAR in 2018, and a 2.3 fWAR in 2019, in only 107.1 IP. He wasn't quite as washed-up-looking as some are suggesting. Maybe if we traded him to a team other than the Dodgers we'd have to eat all but $10 mill a year or something like that.

 

It was his remaining contract, age and injury concerns that made him untouchable to almost every team, unless we paid a large chunk of his salary.

 

"All but $10M" is over $20M a year! Most teams might have demanded $23-25M per.

 

I remember 700 saying $15M was a wash.

 

[notin]

But as moonslav has pointed out many times, those expensive pitching acquisitions from other organizations have been crucial to our 4 rings. I wouldn't undo any of it.

 

Time travel is an absurd concept anyway, of course.

 

Time travel is real!!

 

You just have to understand it only works in one direction. And isn’t very fast…

[notin]

It's all just pointless jibber-jabber, but personally I don't see the logic that Price's contract led to Betts being dealt. They offered Betts $300 million after all. It appears that John Henry had a line he wouldn't cross for a contract to any player, even Betts.

 

He crossed it for Devers. Three years later…

[Maxbialystock]

He crossed it for Devers. Three years later…

 

Devers is 26. If he stays in shape, he can have maybe 10 good years. Of course tonight I was ready to shoot him for that triple pump throw of his that often leads to a bad throw.