Red Sox Starting Rotation 2023

[moonslav59]

How is Cora going to evaluate pitcher-catcher matchups if he doesn't start Wong against any righties?

 

Huh?

[Bellhorn04]

Huh?

 

What is it you don't get?

[Bellhorn04]

Should have started Wong again tonight. McGuire is cursed.

[sk7326]

It's hard to pinpoint a reason Sale has been horrific through 3 starts. It could have something to do with McGuire, but even if it is/was, it is no certainty Wong will give Sale what he needs from a catcher.

 

I think Sale is rusty and needs to find his groove. Maybe, if Sandy Leon was still here, his numbers would be better.

 

2.79 with Leon over 436 innings (1721 PAs)

 

4.08 with Vaz over 132 innings (567 PAs)

 

11.25 with McGuire over a measly 12 IP and 64 PAs

 

I'm way more concerned about Sale than McGuire's D and staff handling skills, but that may change over a few months.

 

 

Sale made a great step yesterday. Really since 2019, he is still the strikeout pitcher he has always been ... but his mistakes get hit very very hard.

[Nick]

Well Paxton and Kluber are taking themselves out of rotation.

 

I am ok with Sale Whitlock Pivetta Houck and Bello.

[Maxbialystock]

Should have started Wong again tonight. McGuire is cursed.

 

Right now I'm OK with McGuire catching against righty starters and Wong against lefties. I'm also fine if Cora changes that because he thinks Wong might be needed for a specific pitcher--like possibly Sale.

 

While I like the theory of CERA, I don't McGuire was the problem tonight. kluber throw an 88 mph four seamer and doesn't have any particularly good breaking stuff. His command stinks. I'm not positive, but I think his changeup is effective, so of course he rarely throws that.

 

The problem with using Wong more is that McGuire right now has one of the team's best bats. Going into tonight's game, Wong and McGuire had exactly the same WAR, +0.3.

[moonslav59]

What is it you don't get?

 

If they use the catchers by a L-R platoon, Wong should end up catching every SP'er we have.

 

If they go the usual route and match pitchers with specific catchers, he'll not catch some SP'ers.

 

A platoon based on L-R offers a wider variety.

[moonslav59]

The problem with using Wong more is that McGuire right now has one of the team's best bats. Going into tonight's game, Wong and McGuire had exactly the same WAR, +0.3.

 

Since Wong has played more, McGuire has a better WAR per game or PA than Wong.

 

Before tonight fWAR

1.1 Duvall (37 PAs)

1.0 Devers (75)

0.9 Dugo (77)

0.3 McGuire (30)

0.2 Wong (39)

0.2 Ref (47)

0.2 Turner (78)

 

bWAR

1.0 Devers

0.9 Duvall

0.9 Dugo

0.3 McGuire, Wong & Turner

[Maxbialystock]

As I said a few pages back, the Sox have eight pitchers--Crawford, Kluber, Sale, Winckowski, Pivetta, Houck, Whitlock, and Bello--with either significant innings or starter potential or both. Winckowski hasn't started, but he's pitched 14 innings and several times gone 3 innings. Bello only has 2.2 lousy innings (5 ER's), but has shown starter potential. The other six have all started at least two games.

 

My point now is that it would make sense to move Kluber, who so far has 4 losses and an ERA of 8.50, to the bullpen or to "6th starter," either or which would limit his starts. Cora would still have six viable starters (assuming Bello is viable): Crawford, Pivetta, Houck, Sale, Whitlock, and Bello. No other Sox pitcher (besides Kluber) has more than one loss.

 

Too bad Kluber is being paid $10M, but last year the Sox paid Sale even more than that and for fewer innings (and less damage to the Sox).

 

The real point is that a starter can lose a game before the hitters have a chance to hit or the bullpen has a chance to save a game. And the Sox have six other starters plus Paxton trying to make his way back.

[Jasonbay44]

Kluber looks toast. He already appeared to be declining last year, and he looks even worse this year and he's 37.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Kluber looks toast. He already appeared to be declining last year, and he looks even worse this year and he's 37.

 

This winter some posters hailed Kluber as a better pitcher than Wacha, and used specific stats to show how a .500 pitcher cut by a playoff team was preferable over a guy who won 11 of 13 decisions for a last-place club. But we all know Bloom chose not to pay "the years" wanted by Wacha (who's been hot and cold in San Diego, with two wins for a loaded team).

 

The difference between Sale and Kluber is that Chris still throws 95+, so can still beat big leaguers when he's not throwing BP down the middle. Kluber throws in the high-80s... his control has to be perfect on the perimeter of the strike zone in every at bat to even be competitive. It's not and he's not.

[Bellhorn04]

2023 Sox record in Wong starts: 7-4

2023 Sox record in McGuire starts: 2-6

 

McGuire has now started 34 games for the Sox. In those games we've given up 224 runs - 6.59 per game.

 

Here is the distribution:

 

1-1

3-9

4-3

5-3

6-2

7-2

8-4

9-3

10-3

12-1

13-1

14-1

15-1

 

So in 34 games, we've given up less than 3 runs exactly once. Double figures 7 times. 8 runs or more 14 times.

[Hugh2]

Well Paxton and Kluber are taking themselves out of rotation.

 

I am ok with Sale Whitlock Pivetta Houck and Bello.

 

Kluber yes, Paxton we need to see.

[Hugh2]

2023 Sox record in Wong starts: 7-4

2023 Sox record in McGuire starts: 2-6

 

McGuire has now started 34 games for the Sox. In those games we've given up 224 runs - 6.59 per game.

 

Here is the distribution:

 

1-1

3-9

4-3

5-3

6-2

7-2

8-4

9-3

10-3

12-1

13-1

14-1

15-1

 

So in 34 games, we've given up less than 3 runs exactly once. Double figures 7 times. 8 runs or more 14 times.

 

Never thought of it this way. Should be much lower with our ELITE pitching.

[Hugh2]

This winter some posters hailed Kluber as a better pitcher than Wacha, and used specific stats to show how a .500 pitcher cut by a playoff team was preferable over a guy who won 11 of 13 decisions for a last-place club. But we all know Bloom chose not to pay "the years" wanted by Wacha (who's been hot and cold in San Diego, with two wins for a loaded team).

 

The difference between Sale and Kluber is that Chris still throws 95+, so can still beat big leaguers when he's not throwing BP down the middle. Kluber throws in the high-80s... his control has to be perfect on the perimeter of the strike zone in every at bat to even be competitive. It's not and he's not.

 

How’s Wacha doing?

[Hugh2]

It’s time to move Kluber to the bullpen, let him take the swing man role. Maybe he gets one more start, and that’s being generous.

[Bellhorn04]

Never thought of it this way. Should be much lower with our ELITE pitching.

 

Yet our pitching somehow improves by 3 runs per game when Wong catches. Must be just a magical coincidence.

[Hugh2]

Yet our pitching somehow improves by 3 runs per game when Wong catches. Must be just a magical coincidence.

 

So maybe we just need to get the best catcher and pay s*** pitchers.

 

Yes it’s a coincidence, baseball is like that, and CERA has been proven time time again to not only be a poor indicator but to need a larger sample size than any other stat to have any type of correlation. Its variance in a SSS is higher than just about anything else.

 

By all accounts, scouting and metrics, McGuire has been a plus defender in his young career.

 

This just feels like looking for something and rolling with it. McGuire is fine, CERA is garbage.

[Bellhorn04]

McGuire is not fine. There's something wrong with the guy. I bet we move on from him fairly soon, just as the Jays and White Sox did last year.

[Hugh2]

McGuire is not fine. There's something wrong with the guy. I bet we move on from him fairly soon, just as the Jays and White Sox did last year.

 

According to ONE stat that is highly regarded as garbage.

 

Did Reese like steal your wife or kick your dog or something?

[Hugh2]

Kluber sucks; is washed up, and can’t even throw out of the 80’s. Putting yesterdays game on Reese is ridiculous. He’d have sucked just as much with anyone behind the plate.

[Hugh2]

They started finding really bad defensive catchers would have very low CERAs with good pitchers. Which is why CERA was a flash in the pan stat.

 

no one uses CERA

[Hugh2]

And Reese is one of the only guys on the team hitting. Maybe he’s only hitting though because the other catchers suck too

[Bellhorn04]

Interesting article on CERA by a guy who thinks it's real.

 

https://tht.fangraphs.com/classic-tht-annual/do-catchers-have-an-era/

[Hugh2]

Interesting article on CERA by a guy who thinks it's real.

 

https://tht.fangraphs.com/classic-tht-annual/do-catchers-have-an-era/

 

Yes 8 years old, CERA has been thrown out the window since then. But hey….one guy. Or two now

[Hugh2]

Sorry…12 years

[Bellhorn04]

Yes 8 years old, CERA has been thrown out the window since then. But hey….one guy. Or two now

 

No, as the article says, it was thrown out the window before that. Big difference.

 

The big article by Woolner discrediting CERA was written in 1999.

[Bellhorn04]

Of course it may well be that our big starting pitching acquisition Kluber is fully washed up, and yet another blunder by Bloom. Certainly can't rule that out. Various troubling scenarios in play.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

How’s Wacha doing?

 

Read my entire post or look it up. Had a few Kluber starts and also shut out the best team in the NL with 10 Ks in 6 IP.

 

Wacha is 31. Kluber turned 37.

[notin]

Read my entire post or look it up. Had a few Kluber starts and also shut out the best team in the NL with 10 Ks in 6 IP.

 

Wacha is 31. Kluber turned 37.

 

Kluber has an ERA+ of 55. Wacha is a baby step better with an ERA+ of 67…