A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Dipre]

You can't pick and choose. It's on all of them.

 

He's paying Bloom good money to make this work. I get that people don't like him because he looks like the only mummy they forgot to make a pyramid for, but cut the guy some slack.

[Old Red]

He's paying Bloom good money to make this work. I get that people don't like him because he looks like the only mummy they forgot to make a pyramid for, but cut the guy some slack.

 

This is year #4 in Boston, and that is slack enough.

[Dipre]

This is year #4 in Boston, and that is slack enough.

 

That's also relative. What if he presented Henry with a 10-year plan, and as far as MiLB development, the results are satisfactory? As stated above, there's just a lot we don't know.

[Old Red]

That's also relative. What if he presented Henry with a 10-year plan, and as far as MiLB development, the results are satisfactory? As stated above, there's just a lot we don't know.

 

A big market club like the Red Sox should never have as many last place finishes as they’ve had, or the need to have any major rebuilding plans. Times up!

[Dipre]

A big market club like the Red Sox should never have as many last place finishes as they’ve had, or the need to have any major rebuilding plans. Times up!

 

Won it all in 2018, made the ALCS in 2021. For a franchise that spent 86 years without a single championship, we've gotten a bit entitled as a fanbase eh?

[Old Red]

Won it all in 2018, made the ALCS in 2021. For a franchise that spent 86 years without a single championship, we've gotten a bit entitled as a fanbase eh?

 

When it comes to last place finishes. Yes!

[Dipre]

I'd take four last place finishes and a championship on five year cycles no question asked.

[Old Red]

I'd take four last place finishes and a championship on five year cycles no question asked.

 

Shouldn’t have to.

[Dipre]

Well you take your second place finishes, I like my championships.

[Bellhorn04]

No. I remember it well, but I don't know where to find it now. It was pretty well known at the time. He clearly said that he was spending too much on the team. I am sure some others recall that as well.

 

The key statement Henry made was about getting under the luxury tax threshold for 2020, which would have been the third year paying tax. I think he basically said it was something that had to be done.

[Dipre]

The key statement Henry made was about getting under the luxury tax threshold for 2020, which would have been the third year paying tax. I think he basically said it was something that had to be done.

 

Henry has never once said he doesn't want to pump money into the franchise. He's whined about other teams having more financial resources, but they've always spent, and as he said this year after getting booed by fans, they will continue to spend, but they want a sustainable contender that doesn't have last place finishes.

[dgalehouse]

Bit of a conundrum. Should we spend to build a championship team , or hold off spending big until the team starts to look like a championship team ? How long will the fanbase support this ? Finishing last four years in a row in hopes of immediately winning it all in year five does not sound like a solid plan. How long before we start hearing about a ten year plan ?

[Dipre]

Bit of a conundrum. Should we spend to build a championship team , or hold off spending big until the team starts to look like a championship team ? How long will the fanbase support this ? Finishing last four years in a row in hopes of immediately winning it all in year five does not sound like a solid plan. How long before we start hearing about a ten year plan ?

 

My problem with them is, that I think they can do both. They've done some spending, but not correctly. Had they spent just a bit more in the SP market, and signed an actual SS instead of a project in Mondesí, we're not having this conversation right now.

[Hugh2]

Bit of a conundrum. Should we spend to build a championship team , or hold off spending big until the team starts to look like a championship team ? How long will the fanbase support this ? Finishing last four years in a row in hopes of immediately winning it all in year five does not sound like a solid plan. How long before we start hearing about a ten year plan ?

 

I think this is a mischaracterization of the plan. The plan as you stated it is a bad one, or at the very least poorly executed. It shouldn’t take a big market team 5 years to rebuild.

 

I don’t think you have to look like a championship franchise, I think you just have to have the workings of one, one in which a few added tweaks turns you into that team.

 

I think this team has that now, I don’t think they’re a championship caliber team. But I think you can look at Whitlock/Houck/Bello/Devers/Casas/Yoshida/Duran/Wong now and see Mayer+ on the way and if you have faith in guys figuring it out (like Casas and Bello) then you could envision a championship caliber team in 2024 with few major acquisitions. An SP1 and a big RHH would do wonders.

 

If that’s the plan, and they have faith in these guys then I expect the Red Sox to pivot and spend this upcoming offseason.

 

If they don’t, then it’s because the didn’t execute the plan. Ownership should take a real hard look at themselves and their management and consider a change of action if that’s the place. Because people like Oldred are right.

 

I personally can stomach a losing season, heck I don’t even mind the last place years when we bounce back and win the World Series but if this team falters this year it will be 3 out of the last 4 years as bad seasons. baseball has done a good job at bringing parity to the game, but there’s still an advantage being a big market team. If the Sox can’t figure it out in 4 years they’re doing something very wrong.

 

I haven’t given up on this team yet.

[Dipre]

I think this is a mischaracterization of the plan. The plan as you stated it is a bad one, or at the very least poorly executed. It shouldn’t take a big market team 5 years to rebuild.

 

I don’t think you have to look like a championship franchise, I think you just have to have the workings of one, one in which a few added tweaks turns you into that team.

 

I think this team has that now, I don’t think they’re a championship caliber team. But I think you can look at Whitlock/Houck/Bello/Devers/Casas/Yoshida/Duran/Wong now and see Mayer+ on the way and if you have faith in guys figuring it out (like Casas and Bello) then you could envision a championship caliber team in 2024 with few major acquisitions. An SP1 and a big RHH would do wonders.

 

If that’s the plan, and they have faith in these guys then I expect the Red Sox to pivot and spend this upcoming offseason.

 

If they don’t, then it’s because the didn’t execute the plan. Ownership should take a real hard look at themselves and their management and consider a change of action if that’s the place. Because people like Oldred are right.

 

I personally can stomach a losing season, heck I don’t even mind the last place years when we bounce back and win the World Series but if this team falters this year it will be 3 out of the last 4 years as bad seasons. baseball has done a good job at bringing parity to the game, but there’s still an advantage being a big market team. If the Sox can’t figure it out in 4 years they’re doing something very wrong.

 

I haven’t given up on this team yet.

 

No they're really not. Because like everything in life, the extremes are never right. There's so much we don't know, and making assumptions about what Henry and/or Bloom think or want is an exercise in futility. We can judge based on results, yes, but look at the foundation you just described in your post, which doesn't include Casas and Duran, who may still become above average to great major leaguers. It's not like the franchise is in shambles but adjustments need to be made, as you do rightly state..

[Hugh2]

No they're really not. Because like everything in life, the extremes are never right. There's so much we don't know, and making assumptions about what Henry and/or Bloom think or want is an exercise in futility. We can judge based on results, yes, but look at the foundation you just described in your post, which doesn't include Casas and Duran, who may still become above average to great major leaguers. It's not like the franchise is in shambles but adjustments need to be made, as you do rightly state..

 

I don’t agree with Red often, I was only saying in this I can see the point of those who are frustrated by this franchise. Teams will have bad years, but 3 out of 4 years being awful is not a good look. If this team doesn’t figure it out at some point this year a lot of people in the organization need to start looking at themselves in the mirror

[Dipre]

I don’t agree with Red often, I was only saying in this I can see the point of those who are frustrated by this franchise. Teams will have bad years, but 3 out of 4 years being awful is not a good look. If this team doesn’t figure it out at some point this year a lot of people in the organization need to start looking at themselves in the mirror

 

This is a franchise that has won 4 rings since the turn of the century, and mostly did it with financial might. The problem is, that approach by itself is not going to work anymore. At least from my perspective, the problem itself isn't the idea of building a sustainable contender based on both developing and spending money, but rather (seemingly) the execution so far. I'm not particularly happy about it and will criticize certain aspects of their approach.

 

Then again, this fanbase, as a whole, has an entitlement problem, and is never truly happy. That's a fact.

[notin]

This is year #4 in Boston, and that is slack enough.

 

Our standards don’t matter…

[notin]

I don’t agree with Red often, I was only saying in this I can see the point of those who are frustrated by this franchise. Teams will have bad years, but 3 out of 4 years being awful is not a good look. If this team doesn’t figure it out at some point this year a lot of people in the organization need to start looking at themselves in the mirror

 

28-27 is awful?

[moonslav59]

I think this is a mischaracterization of the plan. The plan as you stated it is a bad one, or at the very least poorly executed. It shouldn’t take a big market team 5 years to rebuild.

 

I don’t think you have to look like a championship franchise, I think you just have to have the workings of one, one in which a few added tweaks turns you into that team.

 

I think this team has that now, I don’t think they’re a championship caliber team. But I think you can look at Whitlock/Houck/Bello/Devers/Casas/Yoshida/Duran/Wong now and see Mayer+ on the way and if you have faith in guys figuring it out (like Casas and Bello) then you could envision a championship caliber team in 2024 with few major acquisitions. An SP1 and a big RHH would do wonders.

 

If that’s the plan, and they have faith in these guys then I expect the Red Sox to pivot and spend this upcoming offseason.

 

If they don’t, then it’s because the didn’t execute the plan. Ownership should take a real hard look at themselves and their management and consider a change of action if that’s the place. Because people like Oldred are right.

 

I personally can stomach a losing season, heck I don’t even mind the last place years when we bounce back and win the World Series but if this team falters this year it will be 3 out of the last 4 years as bad seasons. baseball has done a good job at bringing parity to the game, but there’s still an advantage being a big market team. If the Sox can’t figure it out in 4 years they’re doing something very wrong.

 

I haven’t given up on this team yet.

 

It seems some have.

 

We certainly aren't the best team on paper, or even a top 5 or maybe 8-10 on paper, either, but it feels like some feel it is our god-given right to be champs every 5-6 years, with no or few last place finishes, of else the GM and owner suck.

 

Blame whoever you want, but this team was crap in 2020, maybe lucky in 2021 and maybe a bit unlucky in 2022. It was obvious the plan was to be somewhat competitive after 2020, but not go "all in." To be honest, I don't blame that idea. Instead, they worked towards rebuilding the farm and 40 man roster depth to try and set the team up for a more consistent chance. I also thought it would take longer to build up the farm due to new rules that penalize winning and or high spending teams. Thanks, in large part, to many of DD-acquired prospects, the farm and roster depth was improved, rather quickly, IMO.

 

Of course, many mistakes were made along the way, but when you spend $5-10M/1 on SP'ers, you are not expected to hit gold very often, or even hit on guys like Wacha and Hill, either. I had very high hopes, with the budget space we had, last winter, we could and would step it up and maybe "go all in" or close enough to be better than this. I'm not sure why we left a pretty big gap under the tax line, unless the plan was to make several deadline deals that add salary.

 

I'm not sure anyone could foresee the cost of guys like Bogey and deGrom vs what they projected in value returned. That's no excuse, but it does explain, a little bit, why the major money we did spend, last winter did not get the star players we expected. The focus on everything but the rotation was a head-scratcher that might be one of the very few things this whole board agrees on- big mistake.

 

I can see not spending big at SS with Story signed and Mayer on the horizon, but we knew Story was out for 80+ games, and Mondesi/Chang was not enough. Kike was not expected to be this bad on D, but he is, and that was also a mistake. Almost all the rest, however, looks or looked pretty good: Yoshida, Jansen, Martin, Duvall and the Devers extension.

 

I'll be singing a different tune, if we go cheap, next winter, and I'm not moving the goalposts on Bloom. He will and should be judged for the winter spending he chose. I still think it will be his defining moment, and perhaps his last big moments on the Sox. It will define his legacy.

 

If he sticks around another year and is allowed to spend or trade for an ace, maybe his legacy will be spread over 2 winters, but I'm not sure what JH is thinking, with the Devers extension about to kick in.

 

I'm with you. I can take several down seasons, as long as there is a bright light ahead. I'm not sure it has dimmed all that much, because we are at .500 with about 2/3 of the season remaining. A lot of very promising things are going on, and I'm excited to see how they play out. It seems there might be less than a handful of fellow posters that have a good chunk of optimism left about this team and the team's future.

 

Maybe that will change. Maybe, we will be proven wrong and mocked or laughed at for believin, all along. If it is to be, so be it.

[Old Red]

28-27 is awful?

 

Compared to who, and what?

[Old Red]

It seems some have.

 

We certainly aren't the best team on paper, or even a top 5 or maybe 8-10 on paper, either, but it feels like some feel it is our god-given right to be champs every 5-6 years, with no or few last place finishes, of else the GM and owner suck.

 

Blame whoever you want, but this team was crap in 2020, maybe lucky in 2021 and maybe a bit unlucky in 2022. It was obvious the plan was to be somewhat competitive after 2020, but not go "all in." To be honest, I don't blame that idea. Instead, they worked towards rebuilding the farm and 40 man roster depth to try and set the team up for a more consistent chance. I also thought it would take longer to build up the farm due to new rules that penalize winning and or high spending teams. Thanks, in large part, to many of DD-acquired prospects, the farm and roster depth was improved, rather quickly, IMO.

 

Of course, many mistakes were made along the way, but when you spend $5-10M/1 on SP'ers, you are not expected to hit gold very often, or even hit on guys like Wacha and Hill, either. I had very high hopes, with the budget space we had, last winter, we could and would step it up and maybe "go all in" or close enough to be better than this. I'm not sure why we left a pretty big gap under the tax line, unless the plan was to make several deadline deals that add salary.

 

I'm not sure anyone could foresee the cost of guys like Bogey and deGrom vs what they projected in value returned. That's no excuse, but it does explain, a little bit, why the major money we did spend, last winter did not get the star players we expected. The focus on everything but the rotation was a head-scratcher that might be one of the very few things this whole board agrees on- big mistake.

 

I can see not spending big at SS with Story signed and Mayer on the horizon, but we knew Story was out for 80+ games, and Mondesi/Chang was not enough. Kike was not expected to be this bad on D, but he is, and that was also a mistake. Almost all the rest, however, looks or looked pretty good: Yoshida, Jansen, Martin, Duvall and the Devers extension.

 

I'll be singing a different tune, if we go cheap, next winter, and I'm not moving the goalposts on Bloom. He will and should be judged for the winter spending he chose. I still think it will be his defining moment, and perhaps his last big moments on the Sox. It will define his legacy.

 

If he sticks around another year and is allowed to spend or trade for an ace, maybe his legacy will be spread over 2 winters, but I'm not sure what JH is thinking, with the Devers extension about to kick in.

 

I'm with you. I can take several down seasons, as long as there is a bright light ahead. I'm not sure it has dimmed all that much, because we are at .500 with about 2/3 of the season remaining. A lot of very promising things are going on, and I'm excited to see how they play out. It seems there might be less than a handful of fellow posters that have a good chunk of optimism left about this team and the team's future.

 

Maybe that will change. Maybe, we will be proven wrong and mocked or laughed at for believin, all along. If it is to be, so be it.

 

I haven’t seen 1 person on here say it’s our god-given right to be champs every 5-6 years. Not one. Expectations are to be a winning-competitive team with a trip to the postseason yes. Anything less to me is a failure for whatever reason.

[dgalehouse]

I haven’t seen 1 person on here say it’s our god-given right to be champs every 5-6 years. Not one. Expectations are to be a winning-competitive team with a trip to the postseason yes. Anything less to me is a failure for whatever reason.

 

Exactly right. You cannot just expect to win a championship. It's too hard. The playoffs are such a crapshoot. What we want is to have a consistently good team. Maybe an off year now and then, but mostly just a team that can hang with the best and have a shot.

[moonslav59]

Exactly right. You cannot just expect to win a championship. It's too hard. The playoffs are such a crapshoot. What we want is to have a consistently good team. Maybe an off year now and then, but mostly just a team that can hang with the best and have a shot.

 

Nobody said fans are saying "it's our god-given right." A poster said it feels like it. Not sure how that is "exactly right."

 

I do thing the goal or plan is to build that "consistently good team" and those "years off now and then" were 2020 (the tear down) and 2022 (the near miss reset year.)

 

Patience is no longer a virtue, and last place in 2 of 3 years is something no team should ever have happen, or heads should roll. That's what I feel some here think.

 

I could be wrong, but the posts I read indicate otherwise.

[moonslav59]

Almost half of our 27 losses have come via series sweeps (13 of 27.)

3 PIT

4 TBR

3 STL

3 LAA

 

Let's not make it 14 of 28 by getting swept by Cincy, the 3rd NLC team!

 

Other than those 4 sweeps, we have only lost one other series- BAL 2 or 3, but we will be adding Cincy to the losing series list, no matter who wins, tonight.

 

4 game sweep 1

3 game sweep 1

3-1 win 1

2-1 win 8

1-1 tie 1

 

6 series lost

1 series tied

10 series won

 

But, 28-27, overall.

[moonslav59]

Since April 27th:

 

Won 8 in a row

Lost 4 of 6

Won 4 in a row

Lost 7 of 9

 

Talk about roller coaster rides!

[notin]

Compared to who, and what?

 

It needs no context. Is 28-27 awful?

 

I don’t think so. It’s certainly not great, probably not good, and far from ideal. But it isn’t awful…

[Hugh2]

28-27 is awful?

 

I’m the context that the wheels come off. Even a .500 team missing the playoffs wouldn’t be awful but it would certainly be underwhelming. At the very least, this organization needs to show its heading in the right direction.

[moonslav59]

I’m the context that the wheels come off. Even a .500 team missing the playoffs wouldn’t be awful but it would certainly be underwhelming. At the very least, this organization needs to show its heading in the right direction.

 

After 1/3 of the season, it's hard to fully grasp if we are headed in the right direction or not.

 

Some farm prospects are looking good and moving up the charts.

Some of our top farm prospects are doing very poorly.

 

Our budget seemed to be headed towards a better set-up, with less dead wood than we've had for a while.

The Devers deal will be judged years from now, but having him under control does seem like a step in the right direction, at least for the near future.

The salaries coming off the books looks to be setting us up nicely for mostly addition by subtraction on talent and millions in savings: Kluber Kike, Duvall, Mondesi, Paxton and others.

 

To me, the biggest improvement has come from building up roster depth. It was horrific in 2020. Some of the boost has come by not trading away prospects and some has come by trading for young players and prospects, like Wink, Wong, Valdez and others.

 

Is the foundation good enough to make the big push at the deadline or next winter? My guess is we'll know more by season's end.

 

[Bellhorn04]

It needs no context. Is 28-27 awful?

 

I don’t think so. It’s certainly not great, probably not good, and far from ideal. But it isn’t awful…

 

In isolation, it's mediocre. For a team with the Red Sox wealth and resources, coming off a 78-84 season, and an offseason where a lot of payroll room had opened up, it's less than mediocre.