A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

Joely's career bWAR, BTW, is -1.2. Expectations shouldn't be very high.

[mvp 78]

I think the 2023 Sox are exactly what their record says right now. We're on pace to win 84 games. It almost seems like that's what Henry and Bloom were shooting for.

 

Better than 2022...

[moonslav59]

8 runs doesn't meet your standard?

 

The problem was the bullpen--specifically, Rodriguez.

 

I'm not saying there were no good things that happened in the game, but I was not "encouraged" at all by losing to the Reds 9-0 or 9-8.

 

We need to beat these teams and badly, not like 10-1 but by sweeps and 2 out of 3, at worst.

 

I also think, I get antsy after days off, and the next game seems to take on more importance. That loss hurt.

[moonslav59]

I think the 2023 Sox are exactly what their record says right now. We're on pace to win 84 games. It almost seems like that's what Henry and Bloom were shooting for.

 

I do think they knew this was not going to be a ring year, unless everything went right, and I mean 99-100% everything.

 

I also think they viewed this team as a better than 50-50 chance at making the playoffs. That was at odds with what most posters here felt, but I do think they believed it.

 

We still have some budget space to make deals at the deadline, and we could get some big boosts from returning IL guys, soon, but we can't keep slipping away, with these series sweeps and losses to bad teams.

 

We are at a point in our schedule, where we can make a strong push. There is a healthy mix of bad teams and teams we need to pass mixed in. If we don't start making a move, we may be talking fire sale, again in a couple months. (Please God, NO!)

 

This team has shown some fire.

The pen is way better than it has been in years.

The depth has proven to be our savior, up to now.

Some of our best players are below their norms. We need them to step it up, and NOW!

Our rotation needs to prove they can gel for more than 1-2 starts in a row.

Our line-up should get more consistent when Duvall & Story return, but I'm not sure we can wait that long. We need who we have now to return to early season form.

 

That's a lot of ifs and promises.

 

We knew we had a lot back in March. Some, like Sale have more or less answered the questions, but too many others are waffling.

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not saying there were no good things that happened in the game, but I was not "encouraged" at all by losing to the Reds 9-0 or 9-8.

 

We need to beat these teams and badly, not like 10-1 but by sweeps and 2 out of 3, at worst.

 

I also think, I get antsy after days off, and the next game seems to take on more importance. That loss hurt.

 

Once again we made a "gutsy comeback attempt". But there have been too many of those, because we have fallen behind early and big so often.

 

We have all the classic hallmarks of a mildly entertaining .500 team.

 

Yes, I'm depressed about it.

[moonslav59]

Joely's career bWAR, BTW, is -1.2. Expectations shouldn't be very high.

 

I don't think anyone was expecting Mo.

 

RP'er WARs are always on the low side, even good ones.

 

The last 2 years, Joely had a 0.4 and 0.6 fWAR. Only 72 RP'ers have 80+ IP and a 1.0+ fWAR from 2021-2022. That's a little over 2 per team.

 

Joely was expected to be our lefty specialist and fill the 5 or 6 slot in the pen- maybe the 4 slot.

 

He still may round into shape and be a plus. I think he may have a better outlook than Bleier.

[mvp 78]

Once again we made a "gutsy comeback attempt". But there have been too many of those, because we have fallen behind early and big so often.

 

We have all the classic hallmarks of a mildly entertaining .500 team.

 

Yes, I'm depressed about it.

 

Last year, 4 games back of the WC meant they were still in it and they couldn't trade anyone?!??!?

[Bellhorn04]

Joely's FIP is much better than his actual ERA. One of those guys. Based on his actual results, he's below replacement level.

[Bellhorn04]

Last year, 4 games back of the WC meant they were still in it and they couldn't trade anyone?!??!?

 

To be exact, it was 3 games and they traded Vaz. But you already won this argument. They should have cleaned house.

[moonslav59]

Once again we made a "gutsy comeback attempt". But there have been too many of those, because we have fallen behind early and big so often.

 

We have all the classic hallmarks of a mildly entertaining .500 team.

 

Yes, I'm depressed about it.

 

I think this team is very "entertaining" and exciting to watch. There are many subplots going on, where just about every game has some kind of, "I can't wait to see how ____ pitches, today," or "I'm looking forward to seeing if _____ can continue to show growth as a rookie or newly acquire vet."

 

I don't think this team will end up between 80-84 wins, but it would not surprise me. I still think we are better than this, and hopefully the returning players will give us a boost.

 

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I'm going to repeat: the other teams are not as good as some think they are. Look at their rosters and numbers- most have huge weaknesses, like we do. There is no reason to think some of the teams ahead of us are clearly better than us.

 

A lot will come down to health, and some of those teams have returning players, too.

[Dipre]

This team could go far if it gets healthy and improves their run prevention, but both of those are very big IFs

[moonslav59]

To be exact, it was 3 games and they traded Vaz. But you already won this argument. They should have cleaned house.

 

It was not a clear or easy choice, last year, and what my gut was telling me does not matter one bit to team management of to the fanbase as a whole.

 

In hindsight, we should have cleaned house, especially Bogey, JD, Wacha, Hill and Strahm. We did get a comp pick for Nate, but maybe him, too.

 

Some of us can claim it wasn't hindsight, but that does not matter. We did do well in the Vaz and Diekman trades, and maybe the Groome trade will work out, too.

 

Bloom seems to do well with deadline trades. Maybe the more would have been merrier.

[moonslav59]

This team could go far if it gets healthy and improves their run prevention, but both of those are very big IFs

 

We should get Duvall back, soon. He's not going to keep hitting 1.500, but he should help the offense.

Story is farther away, and his arm strength is being questioned. (His accuracy may take some time to materialize, as well.)

Mondesi has lost my faith, but could become a helpful piece.

 

We need the rest of the team to stay healthy, and that is an "IF," but maybe it's not unreasonable to think we could do okay with the IL.

 

Run prevention is limited by our defense, and the return of Story has to be a boost over Kike at SS. Duvall over Duran is not a plus for CF, but if Duvall plays LF and Yoshida DH, the D would be better. Kike at 2B or CF is better than SS and better than Valdez at 2B.

 

The best way to improve our run prevention has to be solidifying the rotation.

 

It took us 50 games just to identify who our starters should be, but only Sale and Bello have really shown they own a slot.

 

I think our pen is a plus.

[notin]

Joely's FIP is much better than his actual ERA. One of those guys. Based on his actual results, he's below replacement level.

 

To be fair, it does take stellar performance for a reliever throwing 30IP a year to be replacement level or better. Participation matters.

 

If you use fWAR and seasons as a guideline, the greatest relief pitcher of all time was the fWAR equivalent of Gary Gaetti. And while Gaetti was a good player, is he really comparable as a third baseman to Mariano Rivera as a reliever?

[mvp 78]

To be fair, it does take stellar performance for a reliever throwing 30IP a year to be replacement level or better. Participation matters.

 

If you use fWAR and seasons as a guideline, the greatest relief pitcher of all time was the fWAR equivalent of Gary Gaetti. And while Gaetti was a good player, is he really comparable as a third baseman to Mariano Rivera as a reliever?

 

Yeah WAR metrics for relievers are really weak as is.

[notin]

Yeah WAR metrics for relievers are really weak as is.

 

They simply do not play as much as other positions, including starting pitchers…

[Maxbialystock]

Yeah WAR metrics for relievers are really weak as is.

 

Perhaps. What do you think of these the pitching WAR's for the Sox on espn--

 

Winckowski +1.2 ERA 2.23 IP 32.1

Bello +0.8 ERA 3.89 IP 39.1

Sale +0.8 ERA 4.72 IP 55.1

Martin +0.7 ERA 1.32 IP 13.2

Crawford +0.7 ERA 3.30 IP 30.0

Schreiber +0.6 ERA 2.19 IP 17.0

[moonslav59]

Perhaps. What do you think of these the pitching WAR's for the Sox on espn--

 

Winckowski +1.2 ERA 2.23 IP 32.1

Bello +0.8 ERA 3.89 IP 39.1

Sale +0.8 ERA 4.72 IP 55.1

Martin +0.7 ERA 1.32 IP 13.2

Crawford +0.7 ERA 3.30 IP 30.0

Schreiber +0.6 ERA 2.19 IP 17.0

 

WAR is largely a function of IP.

 

Wink and Craw have more IP than most RP'ers, so far.

 

Martin and Scheiber have been buttah.

[mvp 78]

They simply do not play as much as other positions, including starting pitchers…

 

They play MORE OFTEN than starting pitchers and sometimes in high leverage situation, they just appear in less innings for the most part. Again, WAR just doesn't work well for judging relievers vs other players. When comparing vs other relievers? Fine.

[moonslav59]

Does Dalbec's surge in the minors mean he gets another shot with the big club, or is he paving his own way to a trade?

 

I still have a gut feeling this guy may become a decent player in MLB, even if just as a platoon DH/1Bman.

 

In 130 ABs in AAA, he is hitting .300 11 31 (19 XBHs) with a 1.037 OPS.

 

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

Does Dalbec's surge in the minors mean he gets another shot with the big club, or is he paving his own way to a trade?

 

I still have a gut feeling this guy may become a decent player in MLB, even if just as a platoon DH/1Bman.

 

In 130 ABs in AAA, he is hitting .300 11 31 (19 XBHs) with a 1.037 OPS.

 

 

 

 

 

He's still carrying a 33% k rate. That's the limitation. That jumps to 40 when he gets the call.

[Maxbialystock]

He's still carrying a 33% k rate. That's the limitation. That jumps to 40 when he gets the call.

 

Back to back good comments--yours and the one from moonslav you were responding to. I think your 40% K rate comment is apt, but I also wonder where Dalbec plays when it appears Casas will stick at 1b. And, if not Casas, Turner--so Yoshida can DH and Duvall (due back in June) can play in the outfield with Duran and Verdugo.

[Dipre]

Back to back good comments--yours and the one from moonslav you were responding to. I think your 40% K rate comment is apt, but I also wonder where Dalbec plays when it appears Casas will stick at 1b. And, if not Casas, Turner--so Yoshida can DH and Duvall (due back in June) can play in the outfield with Duran and Verdugo.

 

If he's hitting, they'll find a spot between 1B and DH.

[Bellhorn04]

To be fair, it does take stellar performance for a reliever throwing 30IP a year to be replacement level or better. Participation matters.

 

I get that, but I don't think it makes a sub-zero WAR good.

[Bellhorn04]

They simply do not play as much as other positions, including starting pitchers…

 

There's always rate calculations...

[Bellhorn04]

WAR is largely a function of IP.

 

Are we really incapable of adjusting for that?

[vegasbob]

If he's hitting, they'll find a spot between 1B and DH.

 

The spot between 1B and DH is known as the coach's box .

[Maxbialystock]

If he's hitting, they'll find a spot between 1B and DH.

 

Really? My take is that Duvall's return takes away the DH position, period. So Dalbec becomes one of three 1B aspirants.

[Maxbialystock]

The spot between 1B and DH is known as the coach's box .

 

Nice

[Dipre]

Really? My take is that Duvall's return takes away the DH position, period. So Dalbec becomes one of three 1B aspirants.

 

That's assuming everyone else is hitting.