A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Old Red]

He will most likely pass A700 in post count by the end of June.

 

I’m sure he’s already passed in word count.

[moonslav59]

He will most likely pass A700 in post count by the end of June.

 

Here I thought I was obsessed. LOL!

 

[mvp 78]

Here I thought I was obsessed. LOL!

 

 

All I did was look at the top 5 and run a simple calculation to determine how quick you should catch up. You'll probably get there sooner than that.

[mvp 78]

Like I said earlier if the Red Sox want to win more games just get better. I don’t want to see less games with the Yankees. Too much has been made of last year when the Red Sox sucked against the Div. The year before though the Red Sox had a winning record against the Yankees, and hosted a playoff game against them. Don’t look for an easier path, and an easier schedule just get better, and things will take care of themselves.

 

There were a few years when it seemed like great Red Sox teams just struggled to beat the lowly O's. It's not about forecasting who is on the schedule, it's about how you are playing.

[moonslav59]

I should change the wording to "it's just another reason to why it's more important for US to worry about the Red Sox and not who the schedule has them playing...."

 

I don't think anyone is "worrying" about the schedule. Some things have changed that appear to aid several teams over others.

 

Not much talk has been directed at the loss of the shift and how that might affect teams that were helped or hurt the most by it, in the past.

 

Clearly, some teams got better, on paper, while others stayed about the same of got worse. This will likely matter more than schedules or shifts, but then again, sometimes teams just go in the gutter for a season or play over their heads.

 

It's hard to get a feel for this team as we are so different from last year's opening day roster.

 

Red= not here anymore

Blue= change of position

2022

Nate

Pivetta

Houck

Wacha

Hill

Whitlock

Strahm

Barnes

Diekman

Robles

Brasier

Davis

Sawamura

Crawford (#27)

Valdez (#28)

 

Vazquez

Plawecki

Dalbec AAA?

Story IL

Devers

Bogey

Verdugo

Kike

JBJ

JD

Shaw

Arauz

Arroyo

[mvp 78]

Is the banning of the shift really going to take the Rays and the Astros out of the playoff race?

 

I don't believe the change in the shift rules is going to have an impact on the standings. I also don't think any player is going to have a long term dramatic swing in stats solely due to the shift.

[mvp 78]

It's hard to get a feel for this team as we are so different from last year's opening day roster.

 

 

To me, that means there should be LOTS to talk about with all the changes.

[mvp 78]

22 to 23

 

C > C

1B

2B >> 2B

SS >> SS

3B = 3B

RF

CF > CF (Kiké is better than Duvall)

LF

DH = DH

SP = SP

RP

 

The big changes are 1b and bullpen should be much more sound than last year while MIF is a HUGE downgrade.

[Old Red]

There were a few years when it seemed like great Red Sox teams just struggled to beat the lowly O's. It's not about forecasting who is on the schedule, it's about how you are playing.

 

Agree 100%.

[notin]

22 to 23

 

C > C

1B

2B >> 2B

SS >> SS

3B = 3B

RF

CF > CF (Kiké is better than Duvall)

LF

DH = DH

SP = SP

RP

 

The big changes are 1b and bullpen should be much more sound than last year while MIF is a HUGE downgrade.

 

If you count your “” symbols, they’re equal. Using this extremely rudimentary (and wildly speculative) method, there is no change.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

22 to 23

 

C > C

1B

2B >> 2B

SS >> SS

3B = 3B

RF

CF > CF (Kiké is better than Duvall)

LF

DH = DH

SP = SP

RP

 

The big changes are 1b and bullpen should be much more sound than last year while MIF is a HUGE downgrade.

 

It's all about the starting pitchers. It remains to be seen if this year's projected rotation is even equal to last year's last place crew.

 

In Year FOUR of Bloom's Rebuild, the Red Sox chose to replace three departing starters with one: Old Man Kluber. They took the safest route by not bothering to blow any more money on starters, since they already have investments in Sale, Paxton and Whitlock.

 

It's understandable if ownership is hesitant to spend big on expensive starters, after getting burned to a crisp on Price and Sale. But unless Bello and Mata develop into the next Lester and Buchholz -- homegrown All-Stars under 30 that both bounced back -- then hoping for another 2013 is perhaps imprudent.

[mvp 78]

I don't think Mata is going to be a starter long term. He should be a good MLB arm though.

 

2020:

Eovaldi

Perez

Weber

Mazza

Godley

Peacock/Brewer/Hart

 

2021:

Eovaldi

ERod

Pivetta

Richards

Perez

Sale/Houck

 

2022:

Eovaldi

Wacha

Hill

Pivetta

Whitlock/Houck/Bello

Winckowski/Crawford/Seabold

 

2023:

Sale

Kluber

Bello

Whitock

Pivetta

Paxton/Crawford/Winckowski/Walter/Mata

 

How would you rank them if you didn't know how the results of that season? None of the rotations from 21 - 23 really stand out to me. They've all been underwhelming.

[mvp 78]

@PeteAbe

Cora says the rotation decisions will wait until the end. Didn’t say the were necessarily committed to a five-man rotation. Obviously a lot of health questions with that group.

 

Duh.

[mvp 78]

@PeteAbe

Cora is enthusiastic about how Mondesí looks coming off knee surgery. Said at this point all the others players are ready to go.

 

Would be nice if he could stay healthy, but I don't see that happening at all.

[mvp 78]

@MacCerullo

Alex Cora says as of now Christian Arroyo is the team's second baseman.

[mvp 78]

@MacCerullo

Alex Cora says Kiké Hernández will be the #RedSox shortstop, but: "The hope is for Trevor to come back and be healthy and play shortstop."

 

Mondesi is just a backup then?

[Old Red]

@MacCerullo

Alex Cora says Kiké Hernández will be the #RedSox shortstop, but: "The hope is for Trevor to come back and be healthy and play shortstop."

 

Mondesi is just a backup then?

 

As I had been saying right along before Story came up lame that after Bogey left Story was in the plans to be the SS in 2023, and not staying at 2B, which so many had hoped for.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don't think Mata is going to be a starter long term. He should be a good MLB arm though.

 

2020:

Eovaldi

Perez

Weber

Mazza

Godley

Peacock/Brewer/Hart

 

2021:

Eovaldi

ERod

Pivetta

Richards

Perez

Sale/Houck

 

2022:

Eovaldi

Wacha

Hill

Pivetta

Whitlock/Houck/Bello

Winckowski/Crawford/Seabold

 

2023:

Sale

Kluber

Bello

Whitock

Pivetta

Paxton/Crawford/Winckowski/Walter/Mata

 

How would you rank them if you didn't know how the results of that season? None of the rotations from 21 - 23 really stand out to me. They've all been underwhelming.

 

I would rank on them all.

 

I do recall in the first ST in '20 that ERod and Nate both looked great. Then a pandemic happened. As for new guys, Perez wasn't a sure thing, but was coming off at least one decent half in '19.

 

The only guy we really know what to expect from this season is our #5...

[moonslav59]

22 to 23

 

C > C

1B

2B >> 2B

SS >> SS

3B = 3B

RF

CF > CF (Kiké is better than Duvall)

LF

DH = DH

SP = SP

RP

 

The big changes are 1b and bullpen should be much more sound than last year while MIF is a HUGE downgrade.

 

I think the improved defense at catcher and the fact that Plawecki brought down the team catcher OPS to .694 makes the 2022 and 2023 catching tandem equal, but I'm fine with rating it as a slight drop off.

 

While I agree Kike > Duvall, Kike missed a lot of 2022 and hit poorly, last year. His 2022 back-ups did piss poorly. I think we have better offense from CF than we did in '22 but worse D- call it a push.

 

I'm hopeful our SP'ers can do better than 2022:

 

45-51 4.49 (1.352 WHIP and .763 OPSA)

 

I'm fine with anyone saying the 2023 rotation looks worse, on paper.

 

Maybe Mata, Walter and Murphy outshine Seabold, Wink and Crawford, but if the don't, maybe the second years from Wink and Crawford will be better.

 

[mvp 78]

As I had been saying right along before Story came up lame that after Bogey left Story was in the plans to be the SS in 2023, and not staying at 2B, which so many had hoped for.

 

If Kiké is good at SS, Arroyo is injured and Verdugo is good in RF? Wouldn't they just put Story at 2b?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If Kiké is good at SS, Arroyo is injured and Verdugo is good in RF? Wouldn't they just put Story at 2b?

 

Not our clever classics majors. The Sox would rather put a guy with a bad elbow -- who didn't have TJ, but just a special brace -- go back to the position where he hurt his elbow... to make the longest throws in the infield.

[moonslav59]

I don't think Mata is going to be a starter long term. He should be a good MLB arm though.

 

2020:

Eovaldi

Perez

Weber

Mazza

Godley

Peacock/Brewer/Hart

 

2021:

Eovaldi

ERod

Pivetta

Richards

Perez

Sale/Houck

 

2022:

Eovaldi

Wacha

Hill

Pivetta

Whitlock/Houck/Bello

Winckowski/Crawford/Seabold

 

2023:

Sale

Kluber

Bello

Whitock

Pivetta

Paxton/Crawford/Winckowski/Walter/Mata

 

How would you rank them if you didn't know how the results of that season? None of the rotations from 21 - 23 really stand out to me. They've all been underwhelming.

 

On paper, before the season began:

 

1. 2021

2. 2023

3. 2022

4. 2020

[notin]

Not our clever classics majors. The Sox would rather put a guy with a bad elbow -- who didn't have TJ, but just a special brace -- go back to the position where he hurt his elbow... to make the longest throws in the infield.

 

Story isn’t Machado, whose defense is augmented by a special throwing skill. Story always got by on superior range and an average to slightly below arm…

[notin]

On paper, before the season began:

 

1. 2021

2. 2023

3. 2022

4. 2020

 

On paper, 2023 is vastly superior to all of those. Unfortunately in reality, paper is also roughly equivalent to the durability of the arms atop the 2023 rotation as well…

[notin]

Wacha to the Padres…

[mvp 78]

Story isn’t Machado, whose defense is augmented by a special throwing skill. Story always got by on superior range and an average to slightly below arm…

 

What will his arm be like post surgery?

[Old Red]

If Kiké is good at SS, Arroyo is injured and Verdugo is good in RF? Wouldn't they just put Story at 2b?

 

No! Story was, and is a SS. Yes he was a 2B, and a good one especially playing in short RF, but the only reason he was playing there was Bogey was the SS. Lots of ifs in your questions, but I’ve said all along Story if healthy enough, which is another if will be the SS, which I believe that is what he was signed for. Kike is just a short gap .

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

On paper, 2023 is vastly superior to all of those. Unfortunately in reality, paper is also roughly equivalent to the durability of the arms atop the 2023 rotation as well…

 

But the paper you're reading is the Sports Page from 2017...

[Old Red]

Not our clever classics majors. The Sox would rather put a guy with a bad elbow -- who didn't have TJ, but just a special brace -- go back to the position where he hurt his elbow... to make the longest throws in the infield.

 

Did he need TJ?

[moonslav59]

Did he need TJ?

 

I think it was an option.

 

He did get a procedure, and his elbow was already causing decreased velocity on his throws at SS in 2021.

 

I do agree, that he was slated to be our SS, but that might have changed with this latest issue.