Devers signs 11 year $331 million extension

[moonslav59]

It also helps that the bullpen had no real obvious candidates for demotion. They’re all pitching well, out of options, or both…

 

This is the main point.

 

No more Brasiers, Bleiers, Lloveras and Jacques.

 

Some may lump Campbell with those guys, but he seems to be better.

[mvp 78]

This is the main point.

 

No more Brasiers, Bleiers, Lloveras and Jacques.

 

Some may lump Campbell with those guys, but he seems to be better.

 

Brasier 2024:

 

11.2 IP, 4.63 ERA, 3.18 xFIP, -0.1 fWAR

 

The lucky 183 BABIP from last season has vanished.

[notin]

This is the main point.

 

No more Brasiers, Bleiers, Lloveras and Jacques.

 

Some may lump Campbell with those guys, but he seems to be better.

 

 

Campbell has 6 IP so far this year. He’s still an unknown…

[moonslav59]

Campbell has 6 IP so far this year. He’s still an unknown…

 

Yes, largely, but he did pitch ib 27 games, last year w SEA.

2.83 ERA

3.32 FIP

1.22 WHIP

104 K/9

4.3 BB/9 needed work

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Devers thread. Raffy with another two more Ks, but then lines another oppo double -- he is starting to come around to the idea that any hit, even to the opposite field, is better than strikeouts.

 

He also made another really nice play in the field, and would've had another assist if the Nats baserunner didn't knock the ball out of Cooper's glove -- which was somehow not Slappy ARod interference, but an error on the first baseman...

[mvp 78]

Campbell has 6 IP so far this year. He’s still an unknown…

 

He pitched fairly well for SEA last year too.

[mvp 78]

Devers thread. Raffy with another two more Ks, but then lines another oppo double -- he is starting to come around to the idea that any hit, even to the opposite field, is better than strikeouts.

 

He also made another really nice play in the field, and would've had another assist if the Nats baserunner didn't knock the ball out of Cooper's glove -- which was somehow not Slappy ARod interference, but an error on the first baseman...

 

Why intentionally walk O'Neilll to get to Devers? Wild.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Why intentionally walk O'Neilll to get to Devers? Wild.

 

Nats were trying to decide which one was the more thick-headed hacker, and chose Raffy -- but only because his knee softened the skull of Ty LOB.

[notin]

Why intentionally walk O'Neilll to get to Devers? Wild.

 

 

Lefty pitcher.

 

O'Neill has a 1.106 OPS vs LHP

 

Devers has a .751 OPS vs LHP

[mvp 78]

Lefty pitcher.

 

O'Neill has a 1.106 OPS vs LHP

 

Devers has a .751 OPS vs LHP

 

That LHP:

 

848 OPSa vs LHB

770 OPSa vs RHB

[moonslav59]

Speaking of splits:

 

Sox vs RHPs

1.215 Refsnyder

.951 Wong

.947 Devers

.929 Abreu

.855 O'Neill

.807 Casas

.758 Duran

.707 McGuire

 

.582 Rafaela

.297 Smith

.289 Cooper

.222 Grissom

 

vs LHP

1.500 Smith (2 PA)

1.106 O'Neill

1.000 McGuire (7)

.994 Casas

.921 Wong

.909 Cooper

.751 Devers

.732 Refsnyder

.690 Rafaela

 

.619 Romy

.616 Yoshida

 

.472 Abreu

.455 Grissom

.768 Yoshida

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Responding to Moon quotes from game thread: "This guy has had some mammoth hits for the Sox, some as clutch as they get.

 

He has not been clutch in his 34 games, this year, and it seems this is what defines him, to some."

 

Those of us who watched 2023 also saw the latter for most of that entire season. Forget our eyes; even team reporters and announcers noted Dever's final numbers -- 33 HRs, 100 RBI, .851 OPS -- didn't tell the whole story of what even he would admit was a frustrating campaign at the plate.

 

We should be concerned about Raffy's at bats, and him overexerting himself maybe trying to justify his big contract. But the lack of All-Star production around him in the batting order has certainly amplified his failures, and made it harder to succeed when pitchers have no reason to throw him a good pitch to hit with the game on the line.

 

Devers' struggles don't have to mean he's beginning to decline. The Sox may develop or even trade for some big league bats that will let Raffy do more damage than ever before. There's also plenty of time for him to figure things out and become the beast he once was.

 

At least there's a much better chance Devers regains his star power than there is that John Henry reverts to his old ways of spending to bring in other fearsome hitters to frazzle pitchers. After all, Raffy is only 27... Henry is 74.

Edited May 18, 2024 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75

[Bellhorn04]

Devers actually has the highest OPS+ of his career right now. It's not like he's really struggling. He just hasn't been converting his opportunities with men on base.

[moonslav59]

Responding to Moon quotes from game thread: "This guy has had some mammoth hits for the Sox, some as clutch as they get.

 

He has not been clutch in his 34 games, this year, and it seems this is what defines him, to some."

 

Those of us who watched 2023 also saw the latter for most of that entire season. Forget our eyes; even team reporters and announcers noted Dever's final numbers -- 33 HRs, 100 RBI, .851 OPS -- didn't tell the whole story of what even he would admit was a frustrating campaign at the plate.

 

We should be concerned about Raffy's at bats, and him overexerting himself maybe trying to justify his big contract. But the lack of All-Star production around him in the batting order has certainly amplified his failures, and made it harder to succeed when pitchers have no reason to throw him a good pitch to hit with the game on the line.

 

Devers' struggles don't have to mean he's beginning to decline. The Sox may develop or even trade for some big league bats that will let Raffy do more damage than ever before. There's also plenty of time for him to figure things out and become the beast he once was.

 

At least there's a much better chance Devers regains his star power than there is that John Henry reverts to his old ways of spending to bring in other fearsome hitters to frazzle pitchers. After all, Raffy is only 27... Henry is 74.

 

A well thought out post.

 

We also have to consider that Devers is doing this with very little support around him in the line-up. Teams are thinking, "Let anyone else beat us but Devers."

 

I know that is not an excuse. He has sucked, when it counts, this year, and he's not being walked all that often in high leverage PAs. (2 BBs in 31 PAs) Also, only 31 PAs in HL is not a lot, nor a proper sample size to make definitive judgments about anyone.

 

In 2023, he hit .941 in high leverage (21 BBs in 122 PAs) 6 HRs and 30 RBI.

30% of his RBI came in HL. Only 18.5% of his PAs were HL! How is this being a choke? (Not that anyone called him that.)

 

The whole team is crappying out on O. Only 3 hitters are doing well in HL PAs. Devers is not one of them. (He is 4th best, but far behind them. Let's see how he does from PA # 32 to over 90 in HL situations, this year.

 

I like having Devrs up in clutch situations, despite his poor 31 PAs, this year.

[moonslav59]

Devers actually has the highest OPS+ of his career right now. It's not like he's really struggling. He just hasn't been converting his opportunities with men on base.

 

He is 1 run from being 3rd in runs scored on the team. Somebody has to be on base for others to get RBIs.

 

No doubt, Devers is lagging on producing runs, so far this year. There is no denying it. I just don't buy into the idea that anyone should be defined by what they've done in a 34 game stretch, where he was playing hurt for part of it. (Again, not an excuse- he has sucked at producing runs.)

 

RBI + Runs- HRs:

42 Duran (speed helps w runs scored)

37 Rafaela

32 O'Neill

31 Abreu (horrible in HL)

30 Devers

22 Wong

17 McGuire

[dgalehouse]

I think the runners in scoring position thing is just coincidental. I don't put much stock in it. I have more faith in career stats than any small snippets like that.

[Bellhorn04]

I think the runners in scoring position thing is just coincidental. I don't put much stock in it. I have more faith in career stats than any small snippets like that.

 

Concur 100%.

[notin]

I think the runners in scoring position thing is just coincidental. I don't put much stock in it. I have more faith in career stats than any small snippets like that.

 

Agreed, with the caveat that for players with longer careers, last 3 seasons is probably enough. What a 32yo player accomplished at 23 bares little relevance today…

[dgalehouse]

Agreed, with the caveat that for players with longer careers, last 3 seasons is probably enough. What a 32yo player accomplished at 23 bares little relevance today…

 

The last three seasons of a player with a long career may just reflect the aging process and a decline in performance. But that is not the same as saying that a guy is a good hitter but can't hit with runners in scoring position. Especially over less than two months of the season.

[notin]

The last three seasons of a player with a long career may just reflect the aging process and a decline in performance. But that is not the same as saying that a guy is a good hitter but can't hit with runners in scoring position. Especially over less than two months of the season.

 

I think you make a good argument for doing it if you want to know a player’s current abilities.

 

Now if you’re making a case for Cooperstown or in a simple “who’s better? A or B?”, then, yes, whole career is important in those example scenarios…

Edited May 19, 2024 by notin

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

What a 32yo player accomplished at 23 bares little relevance today…

 

Physical traits that time erodes include eyesight, muscle mass, metabolism... but factors beyond the individual obviously can greatly affect the individual.

 

When Raffy was having an absolute blast in his first few years, no one was counting on him to be another Big Papi. He was just another spoke in the monster tire, spinning through the batting order with the likes of Mookie, Xander and JD. In the World Series, at least, Devers was one of three "clutch" pinch-hitters, along with Nunez and Moreland.

 

Pitchers might have challenged him more in '17-19; it sure didn't seem like anyone could throw a fastball by him then.

 

For stat researchers, if possible, it may be interesting to compare types and/or locations of pitches delivered to Raffy then and now. Books on hitters also change as hitters adjust to books.

 

Right now, Boston has the majors' worst batting average in May with runners on base. If clutch isn't a repeatable skill, then team-wide suckitude for weeks must be a reflection of the roster.

[Bellhorn04]

I think you make a good argument for doing it if you want to know a player’s current abilities.

 

Now if you’re making a case for Cooperstown or in a simple “who’s better? A or B?”, then, yes, while career is important in those example scenarios…

 

Note: this discussion is about Devers's numbers with RISP.

[dgalehouse]

Note: this discussion is about Devers's numbers with RISP.

 

Yeah. I think we are getting off track. Talking about two different things here. I would rather go by Dever's track record as a hitter rather than a few at bats in the first seven weeks of the season. I don't think he has reached the declining phase of his career by any means.

[moonslav59]

Note: this discussion is about Devers's numbers with RISP.

 

More specifically, in l0 PAs in 2024.

 

2024: .918 OPS overall

.749 RISP (40 PAs)/.880 RISP & 2 outs

.865 Men on Base (81 PAs)

.967 bases empty (81 PAs w pitchers not pitching around him)

 

2023: .851 overall

.929 RISP (190 PAs, which is way more than the pace of PAs, this year)/.916 w 2 outs

.887 Men on Base (318 PAs)

.817 bases empty

 

2022: .879 overall

.873 RISP (154 PAs nearly identical to overall)/.842 w 2 outs

.938 w Men on Base (271 PAs)

.835 bases empty

 

Career: .856 overall

.904 w RISP (much better than overall and w bases empty)

.891 w 2 outs (better than carreer overall)

.869 w Men on Base (better than overall & w bases empty)

.844 bases empty

 

This is about 2024 and a 40 PA sample size. Think about that.

 

 

[notin]

Note: this discussion is about Devers's numbers with RISP.

 

I’m ok with Devers’ career situational numbers, which show 2024 as an outlier…

[moonslav59]

I’m ok with Devers’ career situational numbers, which show 2024 as an outlier…

 

Indeed.

 

No 40 PA sample size should cause so much distress.

 

Plus, it's not like he's at .450 w RISP in '24.

[notin]

Indeed.

 

No 40 PA sample size should cause so much distress.

 

Plus, it's not like he's at .450 w RISP in '24.

 

Not to mention, the only stat causing this distress is the batting average. Sure, he only has 6 hits, but all of them have been for extra bases (5 doubles, 1 HR). He also has 7 walks, which, hey, take them if they’re giving them.

 

Really it’s the complete absence of singles causing all this consternation. It’s pretty unlikely he goes all season without one single with RISP…

[mvp 78]

https://x.com/MLBNetwork/status/1792912412867239940

 

A look into how Devers has adjusted his swing.

 

One of only 3 guys with SLG of 500+ against FB/Offspeed/Breaking this year, one of only 3 guys in 90th percentile for hard hit % each of last 4 seasons, 3rd in total bases since 2019.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Not to mention, the only stat causing this distress is the batting average. Sure, he only has 6 hits, but all of them have been for extra bases (5 doubles, 1 HR). He also has 7 walks, which, hey, take them if they’re giving them.

 

Really it’s the complete absence of singles causing all this consternation. It’s pretty unlikely he goes all season without one single with RISP…

 

If Devers wasn't so strong, he'd have a few more singles. But all of his oppo hits seem to reach the wall for doubles or go over the wall.

 

I can't wait until Casas returns, and hits almost exclusively to left, to protect his tender core. Pitchers will start jamming the big boys, and by then it will be summer: Raffy's favorite time of year to turn on pitches.

[Maxbialystock]

I have repeatedly dumped on Devers--to my regret.

 

I like FiveGoldGloves comment that any hitter, including Devers, will function better within a good lineup, which is absolutely not what the Sox have this season.

 

I would go one step further and point out that Mike Trout of the Angels is the poster child for a player who almost every year competes for the AL MVP, but who has not been able to drive that team into the postseason very often--and forget the WS.