2023 Prospects

[moonslav59]

Yup, they sometimes jump a little too high on SSS pitchers that are dominating at lower levels like Drohan and Walter. It's fun to jump on a bandwagon. With Drohan, I remembered what happened to Walter so I wanted to see him do it at AAA at least. It's a little weird because I do remember them talking down players like Denyi Reyes (back in 2018: 1.97 ERA, 155 IP, High A) for being pitchability guys, but they seemed to forget that when they jumped on the Walter train for whatever reason.

 

Maybe it was that high K rate and absurdly high K:BB rate.

[mvp 78]

And those AA numbers are great for Walter, but it's just a 9 game sample. If he was sent back to AA this year, I bet he couldn't repeat that performance from '22.

[mvp 78]

I thought about Yuten over Paulino and Campbell over Hickey as the back-up DH.

 

I also did not like typing in DHam as the back-up SS, when we have so many SSs in the system, but I put Cespedes at 1st string 3B and Romero at 1st string UT IF'er.

 

I had Dobbins and Gambrell tied for the 4/5 slots. I've lost faith in Drohan.

 

It's fine. Your list is your list and not mine. I just don't like Dobbins' profile as he currently can't command anything. Paulino is already a platoon UTIL guy in A ball who had a lackluster '23. Yuck.

[moonslav59]

It's fine. Your list is your list and not mine. I just don't like Dobbins' profile as he currently can't command anything. Paulino is already a platoon UTIL guy in A ball who had a lackluster '23. Yuck.

 

Dobbins and Paulino were very borderline on my list. Your ides seem fine, to me.

[moonslav59]

With all the graduations and rising and falling prospects, the farm is now almost all Bloom's.

 

Non Bloomers in top 30:

4. Rafaela (should graduate in '24)

7. Perales (on the 40 but likely will start in A+ ball)

9. Wikelman (on the 40 but likely will start in AA ball)

13. Castro (Rule 5 eligible and likely to start in A+ ball)

17. Paulino (same as Castro)

26. Bastardo (same as Wikelman)

27. Mata (on 40 and out of options)

 

Bloom grads:

Whitlock

Winckowski

Wong

Bernardino

E Valdez

Kelly, N Robertson, J Jacques

 

Abreu should graduate in 2024. (maybe DHam.)

[moonslav59]

Top Sox Prospects by Age:

Younger non prospects in RED...

 

Age 18:

10. Cespedes

11. Zanetello

14. Joh Garcia

22. Anderson

30. Arias

 

 

Age 19

1. Anthony

5. Bleis

18. Romero

29. Alcantara

35. Brannon

37. C Coffey

39. Paez

42. Yuten

 

Age 20

2. Mayer

7. Perales

13. Castro

19. Jordan

24. E R-C

 

Age 21

3. Teel

6. Yorke

9. Wikelman

17. Paulino

20. Monegro

45. K Campbell

 

Age 22

12. Meidroth

26. Bastardo

34. Rogers

 

Age 23

Casas

4. Rafaela

25. Guerrero

44. I Coffey

 

Age 24

Bello

Abreu

E Valdez

N Robertson

8. Abreu

15. Drohan

16. Nathan

23. Dobbins

27. Mata

28. Hoppe

31. Fernandez

33. Troye

50. Rosier

 

Age 25

Winckowski

Murphy

 

Age 26

Devers

Duran

21. DHam

36. Gambrell

38. Penrod

40. Scott

60. Song

 

Age 27

Crawford

Houck

Whitlock

Verdugo

Wong

32. Walter

 

(Note: MLB player ages are from BR, and are not updated. Many are 1 year older than listed.)

 

[moonslav59]

SP's reports...

 

Victor Santos was solid yet again in his third start of the winter... The 23-year-old righty picked up the winning decision while allowing just one earned run on three hits and one walk to go along with a season-high of seven strikeouts over five strong innings of work. In five appearances for the Leones this season, Santos is now 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA and 0.96 WHIP across 18 2/3 total frames.

 

He's the guy Bloom got for CJ Chatham back in July 2021.

[mvp 78]

SP's reports...

 

Victor Santos was solid yet again in his third start of the winter... The 23-year-old righty picked up the winning decision while allowing just one earned run on three hits and one walk to go along with a season-high of seven strikeouts over five strong innings of work. In five appearances for the Leones this season, Santos is now 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA and 0.96 WHIP across 18 2/3 total frames.

 

He's the guy Bloom got for CJ Chatham back in July 2021.

 

He looks good every winter for Escogido.

 

2.45 ERA in '21

1.88 ERA in '22

1.88 ERA in '23

[moonslav59]

He looks good every winter for Escogido.

 

2.45 ERA in '21

1.88 ERA in '22

1.88 ERA in '23

 

Maybe we just need to help him feel "at home" in the USA.

[moonslav59]

Soxprospects.com summaries on our top pitching prospects:

 

(Note: some of these profiles have not been updated in months.)

 

7. Perales Potential back-end starter or multi-inning bridge arm. Ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. Wide variance arm with a high ceiling and low, but rising, floor. Size, delivery, and inconsistent command and control profile might push him into the bullpen, but has shown among the best raw stuff of any arm in the system...Will flash two plus pitches, with his changeup and cutter showing potential as well. All have shown bat-missing ability, and he shows comfort throwing all of them in most counts. Athletic and moves well on and off the mound. Next step in his development is finding consistency with his delivery and showing he can handle a full season’s workload. By staying healthy for the 2023 season, has gone a long way towards addressing the latter concern.

 

9. Wikelman Potential high-quality, multi-inning relief arm. Ceiling of a quality mid-rotation starter. Still has a wide variance of outcomes; will show four pitches, including a fastball and curveball that stand out, but delivery and command are more like that of a reliever. Potential for three above-average-to-better pitches, but still a long way to go in development and must significantly improve command and control to reach his ceiling. Needs to throw more strikes and be more efficient with his pitches to last deeper into games. Does not have the typical size you look for in a starter. Has simplified his delivery over the course of his career, which should make it easier for him to keep his arm in sync with the rest of his body, but still has considerable effort in his delivery. If command does not improve, that, along with his size and delivery, could push him to a short relief bullpen role, but with his stuff, he could thrive in such a role.

 

15. Drohan Potential emergency up-and-down depth starter or swingman. Ceiling of a back-end starter. Early in 2023, he flashed potential as an athletic left-hander with four averageish pitches and a solid command and control profile. As the season went on, however, his stuff regressed across the board and now only his changeup projects as better than average, with the rest of his arsenal fringy at best. Fastball lacks quality and could limit how effective his changeup could be against more advanced hitters. Needs to decide whether he wants his second breaking ball to be a slider or cutter. Still has upside, but also a chance that his stuff has plateaued and is unlikely to profile against advanced hitters. Variance in potential outcomes as if he comes out in 2024 with the stuff he showed early in 2023 could push towards the higher end of his potential outcomes. Hard worker who has improved every year since signing.

 

20. Monegro Potential up-and-down, multi-inning relief arm. Ceiling of a back-end starter. High variance arm who is still learning to pitch. Still very projectable and has already added velocity, even within the season. Could gain even more velocity given how loose his arm is and the remaining projection in his frame. Stuff took a significant step forward in 2023, making him a much more interesting prospect. Needs to show more consistency and improve command and control as he moves up the ladder. Fastball quality could stand to improve, as could creating separation between his two breaking balls. Has dabbled with a changeup in the past and adding something like that or a splitter could give him a better chance to stick in the starting rotation. Pitches with emotion and swagger.

 

23. Dobbins Potential up-and-down depth starter or multi-inning reliever. Ceiling of a back-end starter. At his best, will show plus velocity and three secondary pitches that can all get hitters out. Has pitches that move in all directions and confidence that he can throw any of them for strikes. Effortful delivery brings injury and consistency concerns, and needs to improve his fastball command. Fastball can get hittable later in games, and he needs to show he can consistently get left-handed hitters out to profile as a starter, but has developed into one of the more intriguing arms in the system.

 

24. Rodrigiez-Cruz Potential emergency depth starter. Ceiling of a back-end starting pitcher. . Has a four-pitch mix, with three showing average potential, but stuff is on the pedestrian side overall and there are questions about how many bats it will miss against more advanced hitters. Solid pitchability. Arsenal does not look like it would translate to a bullpen role, so most likely will have to show he can stick in the rotation.

 

25. Guerrero Potential 5th/6th inning reliever. Ceiling of a setup arm. Has some of the best raw stuff of any relief arm in the system, but needs to improve command and control and consistency. Walks too many hitters and has not missed as many bats in the high minors as he did in the low minors. Splitter is a potential separator pitch with the ability to miss bats at the highest level, but needs to regain his 2022 form with the pitch. Fastball has good velocity, but is hittable and he will have to show the ability to command it to succeed. Plus makeup and regarded as one of the hardest workers in the system. Very popular with teammates.

 

26. Bastardo Potential multi-inning relief arm. Ceiling of a back-end starter. Right now, lacks the fastball quality and command to stick as a starting pitcher. Secondary pitches are ahead of fastball with changeup and breaking ball both showing bat-missing potential. Needs to further refine his two breaking balls, which can run into each other at times.

 

27. Mata Potential multi-inning relief arm. Ceiling of a late-inning relief arm. Trending heavily to the bullpen because he still struggles with command and consistency between outings and as he works deeper into games, has struggled to stay healthy, and will be out of options after 2023. Type of arm that would be more effective in shorter bursts out of the bullpen. At his best, will show the potential for a true four-pitch mix with two potential above-average offerings. Injury risk is also a major concern, as he has not made it through a full season healthy, which also points towards a future bullpen role.

 

Hoppe Potential up-and-down middle reliever. Ceiling of a seventh-inning reliever. Pure relief type with intriguing pitch characteristics. Threw in a long-relief role in college, but is being used in a traditional short relief role in pro ball. Secondary pitches need work and has to improve his command and control in order to reach his potential.

 

31. Fernandez Potential up-and-down reliever. Ceiling of a middle reliever. Stuff increase in 2022 has significantly changed his profile, but projection is a hedge pending his showing similar stuff when he returns from injury. At his best, will show two potential plus pitches with bat-missing ability. Whether he can maintain these gains remains to be seen, but now is a very intriguing potential relief arm.

 

32. Walter Skipping him

 

33. Troye Potential up-and-down reliever. Ceiling of a middle reliever. Has intriguing raw stuff, but has a long way to go, especially with his command and control and finding consistency with his mechanics. Has missed considerable time with injuries and struggled with control throughout his career. Has the size, arm strength, and the type of fastball teams look for. Key for development now is focusing on how to harness his stuff.

 

37. Gambrell Potential up-and-down swingman. Wider range of outcomes for a college player due to his pitch changes after the pandemic. Got into better shape and velocity has increased in 2021. Reasonably high floor as a reliever due to fastball/breaking ball combination if injury issues crop back up or command does not take a step forward.

 

38. Penrod Potential high-minors organizational depth arm. Ceiling of an up-and-down depth starter. Better than your typical indy ball signing, especially given how little time he has in affiliated ball. Will show feel for all five of his pitches and solid velocity from the left side. Stuff will be tested against more advanced hitters, but has shown already that he is too good for the lower minors. Still pretty early in the developmental process even though he is already 26, so there is a chance further work with player development could unlock even more.

 

39. Paez Potential emergency up-and-down starter. Ceiling of a back-end starter. One of the more interesting pitching prospects in the Red Sox low minors, but has a wide gap between what he currently is and what he could be. Already shows an intriguing three-pitch mix with advanced feel and command for his age. Stuff at present is on the light side, but has already started to tick up. If stuff continues to tick up, projection could change.

[moonslav59]

Some of my favorite Sox non pitching prospects and their summaries from soxprospects.com:

 

1. Anthony Potential above-average regular. Ceiling of a regular all-star. Key to reaching his potential is showing he can consistently make contact against advanced pitching, especially left-handers, and continuing to show he can stick in center field. How his hit tool develops will determine how much of his power potential actualizes. His power is a carrying tool and is very impressive for his age. Showed he was much more advanced at the plate than anticipated in 2023 and ended the season in Portland, after starting the year in Salem. Really exciting prospect with one of the highest ceilings in the system.

 

3. Teel Potential average regular as a defense-first catcher whose also adds some value at the plate. Ceiling of an impact everyday catcher if his bat continues to develop. Likely will develop into a hit-over-power type. High baseball IQ and a leader who should be able to handle the rigors of catching at the major league level. Described as having a very carefree personality. Great value pick at 14th overall in 2023 that comes with a high floor due to his defensive profile.

 

2. Mayer Potential above-average regular. Ceiling of a regular all-star. Has all the tools you look for in future everyday shortstop and the offensive upside to hit at the top of a contending team's lineup. Game comes easy to him. Potential for four above-average-or-better tools. Should be able to stick at shortstop and hit for a high average with power. Was regarded by some as one of the best, if not the best, defenders in the 2021 draft. Complete profile on both sides of the ball gives him an all-star ceiling, but development has been somewhat slowed by long-term injuries in both 2022 and 2023.

 

10. Cespedes (Needs update) Red Sox top signing in the January 2023 IFA class. Per reports, offense-first infielder considered by some scouts to be one of the best pure hitters in the January 2023 IFA class. Quick wrists, compact swing, solid-average raw power with the potential for more as he fills out. Good approach for his age. Excellent eye-hand coordination and bat control. Will expand the zone. Will start at shortstop but may need to move to second or third base eventually. Average arm, average speed. Solid makeup.[/i

 

5. Bleis Potential regular who adds value in all facets of the game. High-risk prospect with a wide variance of outcomes with his future further clouded after he missed most of 2023 with a shoulder injury. At his best, will check all the boxes you look for in a prospect his age and if he reaches his potential, all five tools could grade at least as average. Raw power is his best current tool, but has the potential to hit for average as well, although contact concerns did arise in early 2023 looks.

 

4. Rafaela Potential high-end utility player. Projects to add so much value on defense that even if he does not hit, could hold down a considerable role while hitting at the bottom of the order. Ceiling of an everyday regular who adds substantial value on defense and also contributes some at the plate. Whether he reaches his ceiling depends on how his hit tool translates at the MLB level. Defensive ability and versatility and speed give him a high floor, but will have to keep MLB pitchers from exploiting the aggressiveness evidenced by his high minor league chase rate. Has excelled in Triple-A in 2023, but still needs to cut down on chasing pitches out of the zone and improve swing decisions and quality of contact. Chase rate has been remarkably consistent throughout the minors though, even against higher quality pitching, so he could just be an outlier who can get away with an elevated chase rate due to his strong feel for contact in the zone.

 

8. Abreu Potential platoon bench outfielder. Ceiling of an average regular. Development of hit tool will determine his major league potential. Has raw power and will take a walk, but needs to cut down on his swing-and-miss and show he can consistently make contact and impact the baseball against advanced pitching. Concerns about his platoon splits will linger until he shows the ability to put together quality at-bats and make consistent contact against left-handed pitching.

 

14. Joh. Garcia Potential bat-first reserve catcher. Ceiling of an everyday regular catcher who brings value at the plate and in the field. Bat is advanced for his age and has already shown the ability to impact the baseball at a level advanced for his age. Has the potential for two plus tools with his power and arm, and if his hit tool and defense continue to develop, could rise up the prospect rankings, both in the system and nationally. Really came onto our radar after an impressive showing in 2023 minor league spring training. Was then identified by scouts as one of the better position player prospects in the 2023 Florida Complex League.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

moon, thanks for the prospect summaries.

 

Wondering: if Teel/Garcia can form Boston's catching tandem through the late-20s, if Rafaela can at least be Dubon ('23 Gold Glove), if Cespedes is another E.Valdez or someone more like Pitt's Termarr Johnson, and which of the Big Three will be traded...

 

... because on the entire pitching page, only two -- Perales and Gonzalez -- have ceilings as high as mid-rotation starters. Those are the best in the Red Sox system?

[mvp 78]

moon, thanks for the prospect summaries.

 

Wondering: if Teel/Garcia can form Boston's catching tandem through the late-20s, if Rafaela can at least be Dubon ('23 Gold Glove), if Cespedes is another E.Valdez or someone more like Pitt's Termarr Johnson, and which of the Big Three will be traded...

 

... because on the entire pitching page, only two -- Perales and Gonzalez -- have ceilings as high as mid-rotation starters. Those are the best in the Red Sox system?

 

Yup!

[moonslav59]

moon, thanks for the prospect summaries.

 

Wondering: if Teel/Garcia can form Boston's catching tandem through the late-20s, if Rafaela can at least be Dubon ('23 Gold Glove), if Cespedes is another E.Valdez or someone more like Pitt's Termarr Johnson, and which of the Big Three will be traded...

 

... because on the entire pitching page, only two -- Perales and Gonzalez -- have ceilings as high as mid-rotation starters. Those are the best in the Red Sox system?

 

The state of the Sox pitching on the farm has been a long-talked about subject. It's an issue that needs to be fixed, but the knee-jerk reaction to merely draft pitchers with our first picks may not be the best way to improve the team. I don't want to beat a dead horse, but a simple trade of some everyday prospects for a top pitcher would illustrate one way to get better young pitching on the 26.

 

I agree. The system, today, has very few promising SP'ers and no "can't miss" ones. That being said, the young SP'ers from our farm (or obtained as prospects) we have on the 26, right now, look better than we've had, in a long time.

 

Bello

Crawford

Houck

Whitlock

Winckowski

Maybe Bernardino, Murphy or Robertson start to shine.

 

[moonslav59]

moon, thanks for the prospect summaries.

 

Wondering: if Teel/Garcia can form Boston's catching tandem through the late-20s, if Rafaela can at least be Dubon ('23 Gold Glove), if Cespedes is another E.Valdez or someone more like Pitt's Termarr Johnson, and which of the Big Three will be traded...

 

... because on the entire pitching page, only two -- Perales and Gonzalez -- have ceilings as high as mid-rotation starters. Those are the best in the Red Sox system?

 

I'm super high on Cespedes. Maybe too high.

 

I think Rafaela will be good on O, so he will be a solid starter.

 

I love our catching outlook, longterm.

 

I'd look to trade Mayer or Yorke (with others) for a very good and controllable SP'er.

[mvp 78]

The state of the Sox pitching on the farm has been a long-talked about subject. It's an issue that needs to be fixed, but the knee-jerk reaction to merely draft pitchers with our first picks may not be the best way to improve the team. I don't want to beat a dead horse, but a simple trade of some everyday prospects for a top pitcher would illustrate one way to get better young pitching on the 26.

 

I agree. The system, today, has very few promising SP'ers and no "can't miss" ones. That being said, the young SP'ers from our farm (or obtained as prospects) we have on the 26, right now, look better than we've had, in a long time.

 

Bello

Crawford

Houck

Whitlock

Winckowski

Maybe Bernardino, Murphy or Robertson start to shine.

 

 

They spent a long time collecting tweeners and now that's all we have. Bello got hyped to be a TOTR guy, but he's really more mid rotation to me unless he can really turn something on that we haven't seen yet.

[Dipre]

They spent a long time collecting tweeners and now that's all we have. Bello got hyped to be a TOTR guy, but he's really more mid rotation to me unless he can really turn something on that we haven't seen yet.

 

Fastball spin, and that's not particularly easy.

[mvp 78]

I'm super high on Cespedes. Maybe too high.

 

I think Rafaela will be good on O, so he will be a solid starter.

 

I love our catching outlook, longterm.

 

I'd look to trade Mayer or Yorke (with others) for a very good and controllable SP'er.

 

Really just need to see Cespedes stateside first for initial impressions and then at more competitive levels in '25.

 

I have stated that they should trade Mayer all offseason. It's nothing against him personally, but his ceiling isn't really multiple MVP years and a HOF career. He should be an above average SS for his career and make a ton of money, but I think the Sox can use him now to acquire assets they don't have and struggle to develop in their system (pitching).

[Dipre]

Absolutely disagree on Mayer's ceiling. But his floor is lower than what rose-colored glasses evaluators would lead you to believe.

[mvp 78]

Fastball spin, and that's not particularly easy.

 

The 4 seamer is just his worst pitch and either needs to be used as a waste pitch up or just forgotten. The slider gets vertical break rather than horizontal break which maybe he could turn into more of a sweeper at a different velo band? IDK.

[Dipre]

The 4 seamer is just his worst pitch and either needs to be used as a waste pitch up or just forgotten. The slider gets vertical break rather than horizontal break which maybe he could turn into more of a sweeper at a different velo band? IDK.

 

Would be a waste to not work on increasing RPM on a fastball with that velocity and break potential. He could definitely work on a sweeper-type slider.

[moonslav59]

They spent a long time collecting tweeners and now that's all we have. Bello got hyped to be a TOTR guy, but he's really more mid rotation to me unless he can really turn something on that we haven't seen yet.

 

Agreed, but the "tweeners" was still an improvement.

[mvp 78]

Agreed, but the "tweeners" was still an improvement.

 

The pitching has been a mess since 2016 that's for sure.

[moonslav59]

The pitching has been a mess since 2016 that's for sure.

 

Or longer.

 

April 2015

3. Owens

6. ERod (trade for A Miler)

7. B Johnson

8. Matt Barnes (RP)

10. Kopech (later traded for Sale)

13. TBall

 

April 2014

3. Owens

6 Webster (LAD trade)

7. Ranaudo

8. Barnes

9. Workman (RP)

11. D Britton

12. T Ball

 

2013

4. Webster

4. Rubby de la Rosa (LAD trade)

9. Owens

12. B Johnson

13. Ranaudo

14. Workman

15. Britton

16. Alex Wilson

 

April 2012

2. Ranaudo

7. Barnes

13. Doubront (Trade)

14. Wilson

 

2011: add Pimental at #5

 

2010

1. Kelly (AGon trade, later)

7. Pimental

11. Doubront

12. Bowden

13. Tazawa (IFA)

 

2008 had Masterson & Buch

 

 

[mvp 78]

2016:

ERod

Owens

Barnes (first full MLB season)

Espinoza

Kopech

Johnson

Ball

Lakins

Light

Raudes

[moonslav59]

2016:

ERod

Owens

Barnes (first full MLB season)

Espinoza

Kopech

Johnson

Ball

Lakins

Light

Raudes

 

At the time, that was rather highly regarded, yes.

 

In hindsight, that era of the farm did not produce as much as this "tweener era." My combining 2020-2023 to just singular years was not very fair or scientific, either.

 

My 2023 list included...

Whitlock (Graduated in June '21 and never pitched an inning on our farm)

Houck (Sept '21)

Crawford (Aug '22)

Wink (Sept '22)

Bello (Oct '22)

2023 grads: Kelly, Murphy, Robertson and Bernardino, who was not a Sox "farm guy."

Plus, Wikelman, Perales and others still on the farm.

 

Of course, we have to compare apples to apples, so if we are going by one season, not a stretch of seasons, 2016 might beat out 2021, 2022 and 2023 one at a time, but I'm not sure about as a 3-4 year stretch.

 

ERod (started 20 gms and was not listed as a prospect in spring 2016, but had just graduated, like Whitlock & Houck from today's list)

Buch (was from significantly earlier)

Barnes

 

3. Espinoza: highly regarded but never did much (injury)

5. Kopech: was supposed to be better than he has been (injuries)

6. Johnson: blah

10. Lakins

15. Light

16. TBall

(Raudes went top 20 in July)

[sk7326]

Speier's Top 10 Sox Prospects https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/12/01/sports/red-sox-top-prospects/

 

1. Marcelo Mayer

2. Roman Anthony - key question: Why Mayer over Anthony as the top prospect (short answer, longer track record of performance against older peers)

3. Kyle Teel - key question: Can Teel swim in the deep end? (already in AA, being aggressively moved for his position)

4. Ceddane Rafaela - key: Can his swing decisions improve?

5. Miguel Bleis - key: How will he come back from shoulder surgery?

6. Wilyer Abreu - key: Will he open the year in the Boston lineup? (he is probably the most likely of the prospects for 2024 impact)

7. Wikelman Gonzalez - key Can he throw enough strikes to start?

8. Nick Yorke - key: Which path will he take? (2021, 2022, 2023 gave three very different answers)

9. Luis Perales - key: Can he throw enough strikes to start?

10. Yoellin Cespedes - key: Will he keep dominating against more advanced pitching? (crazy exit velos for his age, but it's still low level)

[moonslav59]

Speier's Top 10 Sox Prospects https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/12/01/sports/red-sox-top-prospects/

 

1. Marcelo Mayer

2. Roman Anthony - key question: Why Mayer over Anthony as the top prospect (short answer, longer track record of performance against older peers)

3. Kyle Teel - key question: Can Teel swim in the deep end? (already in AA, being aggressively moved for his position)

4. Ceddane Rafaela - key: Can his swing decisions improve?

5. Miguel Bleis - key: How will he come back from shoulder surgery?

6. Wilyer Abreu - key: Will he open the year in the Boston lineup? (he is probably the most likely of the prospects for 2024 impact)

7. Wikelman Gonzalez - key Can he throw enough strikes to start?

8. Nick Yorke - key: Which path will he take? (2021, 2022, 2023 gave three very different answers)

9. Luis Perales - key: Can he throw enough strikes to start?

10. Yoellin Cespedes - key: Will he keep dominating against more advanced pitching? (crazy exit velos for his age, but it's still low level)

 

Pretty close to soxprospects.com

 

I think the top 3 have a pretty big gap between them and the next set of 2-3 prospects.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Speier's Top 10 Sox Prospects https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/12/01/sports/red-sox-top-prospects/

 

1. Marcelo Mayer

2. Roman Anthony - key question: Why Mayer over Anthony as the top prospect (short answer, longer track record of performance against older peers)

3. Kyle Teel - key question: Can Teel swim in the deep end? (already in AA, being aggressively moved for his position)

4. Ceddane Rafaela - key: Can his swing decisions improve?

5. Miguel Bleis - key: How will he come back from shoulder surgery?

6. Wilyer Abreu - key: Will he open the year in the Boston lineup? (he is probably the most likely of the prospects for 2024 impact)

7. Wikelman Gonzalez - key Can he throw enough strikes to start?

8. Nick Yorke - key: Which path will he take? (2021, 2022, 2023 gave three very different answers)

9. Luis Perales - key: Can he throw enough strikes to start?

10. Yoellin Cespedes - key: Will he keep dominating against more advanced pitching? (crazy exit velos for his age, but it's still low level)

 

Wikelman had the highest strikeout rate for starting pitchers in the minors -- and his ceiling is only mid-rotation?

 

What does a guy have to do for Soxprospects.com to rate a top-of-the-ro ceiling, lead the minors in no-hitters rate?

[mvp 78]

Speier's Top 10 Sox Prospects https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/12/01/sports/red-sox-top-prospects/

 

1. Marcelo Mayer

2. Roman Anthony - key question: Why Mayer over Anthony as the top prospect (short answer, longer track record of performance against older peers)

3. Kyle Teel - key question: Can Teel swim in the deep end? (already in AA, being aggressively moved for his position)

4. Ceddane Rafaela - key: Can his swing decisions improve?

5. Miguel Bleis - key: How will he come back from shoulder surgery?

6. Wilyer Abreu - key: Will he open the year in the Boston lineup? (he is probably the most likely of the prospects for 2024 impact)

7. Wikelman Gonzalez - key Can he throw enough strikes to start?

8. Nick Yorke - key: Which path will he take? (2021, 2022, 2023 gave three very different answers)

9. Luis Perales - key: Can he throw enough strikes to start?

10. Yoellin Cespedes - key: Will he keep dominating against more advanced pitching? (crazy exit velos for his age, but it's still low level)

 

2. Weird about Roman since Mayer was awful in AA and Roman was good in a SSS.

4. No, Rafaela will never fix his plate discipline. He will always swing at everything he can reach.

6. If they trade Verdugo, Abreu will be featured heavily for the '23 Sox IMO. I think he's fine as the 4th OFer since he can play all 4 positions.

7. No.

8. My guess is that '23 looks similar to '22 and that his bat is not transcendent. At least his glove is adequate now. I'd trade him.

9. He has a better chance to start than #7.

10. We won't know until '25 most likely. He'll most likely tear up the FCL. He won't see advanced pitching until Salem.