2023 Prospects

[mvp 78]

8th in a much weaker system to me is not an impactful prospect. Mayb he's a MLBer some day, but if I had to guess he might not even be in the top 20 in this system. He'd probably be right around 20.

 

No, at his peak he was more valuable than Brandon Walter at 13. Aldo was given a much higher grade than ERC who is at 25.

 

The 2021 top 10:

Casas

Downs

Duran

Whitlock

Houck

Jimenez

Seabold - prior to him losing his changeup and falling down the rankings

Ward - prior to him getting TJS

Ramirez

Yorke

 

That's not a bad top 10 for what it is.

[mvp 78]

The thing about Song is, that every single team had a chance to acquire him thru waivers BEFORE he got returned to Boston this year. So that hints there's very good chance he's not going to be picked again. And given what he showed, he may not be worth the risk anymore.

 

If he was claimed through waivers, he would have only needed to stay on the active roster through the end of the season and then for another 30-45 days next year and then you'd be able to option him. If he's selected again, he'd have to stay on the active roster for the entirety of 2024. There's just no way that he's getting selected.

[Hugh2]

No, at his peak he was more valuable than Brandon Walter at 13. Aldo was given a much higher grade than ERC who is at 25.

 

The 2021 top 10:

Casas

Downs

Duran

Whitlock

Houck

Jimenez

Seabold - prior to him losing his changeup and falling down the rankings

Ward - prior to him getting TJS

Ramirez

Yorke

 

That's not a bad top 10 for what it is.

 

Was he? maybe I do not remember this, but I don't ever remember Aldo having any real shot at starting. Walter is also falling, but generally, I feel his chances to start have been better than Aldos were.

 

As decent as that top 10 is in hindsight I don't think the 10 behind him were great. You have Connor Wong in there, and Yorke who still has potential but doesn't have the prospect shine he once had either (although still ranked higher than 2021).

 

That system was better than 2019, and worse than 2021. Regardless of where Aldo would rank, which I still think would be the 15-20 range, I don't think that constitutes trading away a big-time prospect.

 

For me, trading a real prospect would be trading away Mayers, Bleis, and Anthony. Trading away a guy like Aldo is trading a good but not great prospect. And the fact that he's the BEST prospect he's ever trading is saying a lot. Which to me was the point, and I'd still believe that if you could convince me Aldo would be in the 10-15 range now. He's still not in that elite talent range you trade away when you get all star level players.

 

Although to play devil's advocate against me here, he was traded for KYLE SCHWARBER! which ended up being a great move. But Kyle was also on the D.L. at the time and was still a rental. It was a risky move that lowered what his asking price may have otherwise been and it paid off for Bloom. Again, this is the biggest prospect move Bloom has made in terms of prospects moving out of the system at least.

 

I think in the next two years we are going to learn if Bloom is just a prospect hoarder, or if his greater strategy is to overall start using the farm. I think we both agree that a loaded farm leads to losing guys to the rule 5. The very least you can do is trade fringe guys away and try to build a better back half of the roster.

Edited August 31, 2023 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[Hugh2]

If he was claimed through waivers, he would have only needed to stay on the active roster through the end of the season and then for another 30-45 days next year and then you'd be able to option him. If he's selected again, he'd have to stay on the active roster for the entirety of 2024. There's just no way that he's getting selected.

 

I completely agree.

 

On the last Soxprospects podcast, it was either Chris or Ian who played devils advocate to this point. If he has a normal offseason, gets on a throwing program, and it's reported that his velocity has returned a teams opinion may change. I still view it much more probable than not he's NOT selected again. I think them and you would agree.

[moonslav59]

I didn't view Aldo as being near a top tier prospect, either, at the time.

 

I thought the trade was a steal for us, and it was that kind of trade I hoped Bloom would have made, earlier this month- but for SP'ers.

 

(I like the Urias trade, but we needed pitching.)t

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

 

For me, trading a real prospect would be trading away Mayers, Bleis, and Anthony. Trading away a guy like Aldo is trading a good but not great prospect. And the fact that he's the BEST prospect he's ever trading is saying a lot. Which to me was the point, and I'd still believe that if you could convince me Aldo would be in the 10-15 range now. He's still not in that elite talent range you trade away when you get all star level players.

 

Although to play devil's advocate against me here, he was traded for KYLE SCHWARBER! which ended up being a great move.

 

Maybe the Red Sox will finally trade a top prospect this offseason. Maybe they played Rafaela at shortstop last night to see if he's good enough to let them deal Mayer. Or maybe they're showcasing Ceddanne...

 

One thing's for certain: Aldo Ramirez was definitely worth trading for Schwarber, who already has 83 MLB home runs the past two years! For Philadelphia...

[moonslav59]

Maybe the Red Sox will finally trade a top prospect this offseason. Maybe they played Rafaela at shortstop last night to see if he's good enough to let them deal Mayer. Or maybe they're showcasing Ceddanne...

 

One thing's for certain: Aldo Ramirez was definitely worth trading for Schwarber, who already has 83 MLB home runs the past two years! For Philadelphia...

 

I think they just needed to give Story a day off, and with Reyes out, it made more sense to play Rafaela at SS and have Refsnyder play over DHam.

 

I'm not sure if a big prospect deal is in the works this winter (or ever again,) but I think the timing is right.

 

Who we choose to trade would be an issue of contention, and it might just come down to who another GM values more than Bloom & Co. do.

 

Some important questions from last winter got answered, although nothing is ever a sure bet in MLB, I think management feels "safe" going with...

 

Wong & McGuire at catcher (maybe protect Stepen Scott and knowing we have Teel in the system)

Casas at 1B, although he needs to improve his defense. (I think he will DH some, when Yoshida "rests" or plays LF.)

Story at SS is a lock. I also think we feel better about Reyes and Urais as back up than we did with Yang and DHam.

Devers at 3B is a lock, despite our talk of moving him to 1B. It ain't happening, unless we trade Casas or decide to move casas to FT DH and go with Yoshida in LF. (Nope)

The OF has question marks, but we have several good options and several more very promising choices:

LF: Duran/Refsnyder platoon with Yoshida as DH and LF back-up.

CF: Rafaela with Abreu and Duran as back-ups.

RF: Dugo with Abreu and Ref as back-ups.

DH: Yoshida with casas as back-up.

We may add OF depth- someone like the 2023 Duvall or someone who can play 3B/1B like the 2023 Turner or maybe even a middle infielder who might also be able to play CF, not like the 2023 Kike.

 

Our pen looks solid, as long as we don't have to overuse it, and if we can add enough SP'er to the mx, so we can have 2-3 of these guys as long men, it could be one of the pest pens in MLB:

Whitlock

Houck

Pivetta

Crawford

(All have shown they do better in long relief than starting. If somehow we could go with all 4 in the pen, I'd say this could be the best pen in Sox history.

Jansen, Martin, Schreiber, Winckowski, Crawford, Houck, Pivetta & Whitlock

(Depth: Bernardino, Joely, Kelly, Mills, Murphy, Walter, Mata, Gambrell...)

 

That leaves at least 2-3 SP slots to fill, but we all know we will put Houck and or Crawford/Pivetta in the rotation and maybe just add 1 or 2, effectively just replacing Kluber. (SAD!)

 

IMO, we should sign one major FA SP'er: the guy from Japan or Urias or some other SP'er on the younger side of 31 or 32. (Two would be great.) And/or trade some top talent for a solid #2 type. Since far away propsects don't carry the trade value they used to, it does not make sense, to me, to trade Anthony, Bleis or Zanetello.

 

I know some fans will get upset when I mention trading some top prospects, and think I am devaluing them or wanting to "dump" them, but the fact is, you have to give something to get something, and our farm and system is weak on pitching and strong on everyday players. So, who do we have that other GMs want and who are 1-2 years away from the bigs?

 

Here is the BTV values given to the ones I am listing here and SP's ranking and ETA to the bigs listed as well:

1. 59.3 Mayer (late '24)

4. 6.4 (wow!) Rafaela ('24) I ahave to think many GMs value him higher than 6.4.

5. N/A Teel (late '25: I doubt we deal him)

6. 19.0 Yorke (late '24)

7. 4.2 Perales (SP's says ETA is 2026)

8. 3.9 Wikelman (mid '25)

 

Now, we are getting away from "top prospects status, but they could be enticing pieces to a package or bundled up to take the place of one top prospect.)

10. Romero

11. Drohan

12. Bonaci

13. Walter

16. Meidroth

17. EValdez

18. Hickey

19. Jordaan

21. Mata

22. DHam

23. Abreu

 

Vet values that could possibly be traded:

46.6 Casas (Devers to 1B and sign a 3Bman or play Urias at 3B)

39.1 Bello (defeats the purpose of adding SP'ers)

27.1 Houck (see Bello)

25.1 Duran (see high?)

16.8 Crawford (sell high?)

13.1 Yoshida (seems overvalued at 13.1)

9.5 Dugo (one year left)

7.0 Schreiber (Has he been just smoke & mirrors?)

6.2 Wink (some numbers show him to be near or below average.)

 

So, to get a very good controllable pitcher, it looks like it has to be Mayer + 1-2 second tier prospects or Rafaela and Yorke plus maybe Perales or Wikelman, unless we consider Houck.

 

I'm not advocating trading any of these guys, but if you had to trade from one of these choices, who do you choose?

 

Mayer + Romero and Hickey

Casas + Hickey

Rafaela, Yorke and Hickey

Duran + Yorke and Hickey

Houck + Yorke and ____?

Dugo, Yorke and Perales + ____?

 

[Dipre]

Maybe the Red Sox will finally trade a top prospect this offseason. Maybe they played Rafaela at shortstop last night to see if he's good enough to let them deal Mayer. Or maybe they're showcasing Ceddanne...

 

One thing's for certain: Aldo Ramirez was definitely worth trading for Schwarber, who already has 83 MLB home runs the past two years! For Philadelphia...

 

Someone complaining about team defense should never utter that name.

[Hugh2]

Maybe the Red Sox will finally trade a top prospect this offseason. Maybe they played Rafaela at shortstop last night to see if he's good enough to let them deal Mayer. Or maybe they're showcasing Ceddanne...

 

One thing's for certain: Aldo Ramirez was definitely worth trading for Schwarber, who already has 83 MLB home runs the past two years! For Philadelphia...

 

Ceddannes defense is really good at SS, but it is elite in CF. Like, if healthy he's going to be a perrenial GG out there. I highly doubt the Sox move a blue chip prospect just to put a guy like Rafaela at his 2nd best position.

[mvp 78]

Someone complaining about team defense should never utter that name.

 

It's just arguing for the sake of arguing at that point. Throw everything at the wall.

[mvp 78]

Schwarber 2023

-18 DRS

-16 OAA

-12.5 UZR/150

0.6 fWAR

112 wRC+

 

He's been worse than Masa offensively and defensively this year.

[moonslav59]

Schwarber 2023

-18 DRS

-16 OAA

-12.5 UZR/150

0.6 fWAR

112 wRC+

 

He's been worse than Masa offensively and defensively this year.

 

Yet, they persist.

 

LOL

[mvp 78]

I completely agree.

 

On the last Soxprospects podcast, it was either Chris or Ian who played devils advocate to this point. If he has a normal offseason, gets on a throwing program, and it's reported that his velocity has returned a teams opinion may change. I still view it much more probable than not he's NOT selected again. I think them and you would agree.

 

The problem is that nobody will report what his velo looks like prior to the Rule 5 draft in December. Why would the Sox tell anyone?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Someone complaining about team defense should never utter that name.

 

In baseball, the DH doesn't use a glove, unless it's secured by Velcro.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's just arguing for the sake of arguing at that point. Throw everything at the wall.

 

Or over the Wall. Where could we possibly play a guy who hits 40 homers a year.

[Bellhorn04]

Schwarber 2023

-18 DRS

-16 OAA

-12.5 UZR/150

0.6 fWAR

112 wRC+

 

He's been worse than Masa offensively and defensively this year.

 

It's a tight race, though...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Just as long as fans complaining about Yoshida's lack of power -- for 5 years and $90 million -- aren't the same posters who didn't want Schwarber for 4 years at $79M?

 

With another month to go, plus probably the playoffs, Schwarbs has already hit 89 HRs the past two years, including the postseason. And for those who care about budgets and payrolls, he's only under contract for two more years.

 

Schwarber helped lead the Phils to the World Series last year, when he led all Philly regulars in OPS, with Harper on the IL for a third of the season. If you're going to feature a strikeout king at DH, he may as well be the home run champ.

[moonslav59]

Just as long as fans complaining about Yoshida's lack of power -- for 5 years and $90 million -- aren't the same posters who didn't want Schwarber for 4 years at $79M?

 

With another month to go, plus probably the playoffs, Schwarbs has already hit 89 HRs the past two years, including the postseason. And for those who care about budgets and payrolls, he's only under contract for two more years.

 

Schwarber helped lead the Phils to the World Series last year, when he led all Philly regulars in OPS, with Harper on the IL for a third of the season. If you're going to feature a strikeout king at DH, he may as well be the home run champ.

 

As Max will tell you, it's all about defense.

 

[Dipre]

Just as long as fans complaining about Yoshida's lack of power -- for 5 years and $90 million -- aren't the same posters who didn't want Schwarber for 4 years at $79M?

 

With another month to go, plus probably the playoffs, Schwarbs has already hit 89 HRs the past two years, including the postseason. And for those who care about budgets and payrolls, he's only under contract for two more years.

 

Schwarber helped lead the Phils to the World Series last year, when he led all Philly regulars in OPS, with Harper on the IL for a third of the season. If you're going to feature a strikeout king at DH, he may as well be the home run champ.

 

Homers are cool, but otherwise, Schwarber is not a stellar offensive player. The smart money is on Yoshida improving after his first year in MLB, and Schwarber's offensive profile further declining. Not even mentioning defense since both suck.

[moonslav59]

Homers are cool, but otherwise, Schwarber is not a stellar offensive player. The smart money is on Yoshida improving after his first year in MLB, and Schwarber's offensive profile further declining. Not even mentioning defense since both suck.

 

He does walk enough to give him another dimension beyond just the HRs. His career .338 OBP is decent. It's been .340 since 2021. In the last 3 seasons, he has averaged 72 XBHs per 162.

[Dipre]

He does walk enough to give him another dimension beyond just the HRs. His career .338 OBP is decent. It's been .340 since 2021. In the last 3 seasons, he has averaged 72 XBHs per 162.

 

His profile against all types of pitches tells me the batting eye and power are there, but his inability to hit offspeed (.172 BA, 89.5 EV) and breaking pitches (206 BA, 90.5 EV) most likely hides a loss in bat speed, meaning he's cheating fastball. Patience and power age well, but you need to be able to hit secondary pitches to survive in MLB. Also, dude's headed for his second straight 200K season. That is insane.

[moonslav59]

His profile against all types of pitches tells me the batting eye and power are there, but his inability to hit offspeed (.172 BA, 89.5 EV) and breaking pitches (206 BA, 90.5 EV) most likely hides a loss in bat speed, meaning he's cheating fastball. Patience and power age well, but you need to be able to hit secondary pitches to survive in MLB. Also, dude's headed for his second straight 200K season. That is insane.

 

I'm glad we did not pay him to be one of 4 players on the 26 better suited to play DH.

 

I was just pointing out his OBP is a value beyond the HRs and XBHs.

 

The rest is all negatives.

[Larry Cook]

In 2023, we graduated, bello, Winkowski, cassas Crawford, youshida and wong?

That is not a bad group of rookies.

 

In 2024, we got abreau and Rafeala and Murphy and Walter??? And maybe Drohan and lui as relievers??

 

In 2025 Mayer, Anthony, Jordan, dobbins, bonaci and gambrell plus others

 

I think Hang’em Chaim is starting to crack up the farm system.

[moonslav59]

In 2023, we graduated, bello, Winkowski, cassas Crawford, youshida and wong?

That is not a bad group of rookies.

 

In 2024, we got abreau and Rafeala and Murphy and Walter??? And maybe Drohan and lui as relievers??

 

In 2025 Mayer, Anthony, Jordan, dobbins, bonaci and gambrell plus others

 

I think Hang’em Chaim is starting to crack up the farm system.

 

 

Yes, Larry.

 

Here ie the total list from 2017:

 

2017: Devers

2018: none

2019: none

2020: none

2021: Houck and Dalbec

2022: Bello, Duran, Crawford and Wink

2023: Casas, Wong, Bernardino, Murphy, Ort, jacques

 

People say, "look at the facts" or "Look at the results." Well, these are facts and results, too.

 

Soon to graduate?

Rafaela

Abrue

Walter

DHam

EValdez

Nick Robertson

 

Maybe not top caliber names, here, but 3 straight years with zero! Actually 4: summer of '17 (Devers) to summer of 21 (Houck)

 

These were "results," too, and one of a few major reason we hit hard times.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, Larry.

 

Here ie the total list from 2017:

 

2017: Devers

2018: none

2019: none

2020: none

2021: Houck and Dalbec

2022: Bello, Duran, Crawford and Wink

2023: Casas, Wong, Bernardino, Murphy, Ort, jacques

 

People say, "look at the facts" or "Look at the results." Well, these are facts and results, too.

 

Bernardino was a dumpster dive.

[moonslav59]

Bernardino was a dumpster dive.

 

So was Schreiber, Refsnyder and others, but apparently, he was a prospect, when we got him, and he counts as a Bloom prospect in my book.

[moonslav59]

This Gambrell guy is really doing very well. (He was part of the Beni trade, so many bashed ceaselessly.) Today: 5 IP, 5H, 2ER, 1BB and 9Ks! In Woo's 4-0 loss, they K'd 14 opps. Dalbec had 2 hits.

 

POR lost 5-2, but Rosier continued to impress: 2-3 w 3B & BB *up to .818 OPS). Yorke went 1-3 w BB (.817 OPS)

 

GRE won game one 1-0 on an Anthony HR. The team only mustered 2 hits. Penrod 6IP, 2H, 0ER, 2BB, 8K. They lost game two 7-4 as Rogers got lit up. Anthony went 1-2 w a 2B and 2 BBs (.989 OPS) Castro went 3-4 w a 2B, (.866)

 

[mvp 78]

Bernardino was a dumpster dive.

 

Jacques and Ort were was a Rule 5 guys too. Whitlock wasn’t listed.

[mvp 78]

So was Schreiber, Refsnyder and others, but apparently, he was a prospect, when we got him, and he counts as a Bloom prospect in my book.

 

How was he a prospect? He was 30.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Michael Chavis was AL Rookie of the Month in May 2019.

 

Dalbec actually came up in 2020, played in 23 of the 60 games, and had a .959 OPS.