2023 Prospects

[sk7326]

Law deep dive on Sox: https://theathletic.com/4146022/2023/02/07/red-sox-top-20-prospect-farm-system-ranked/

 

1. Marcelo Mayer (#11 overall)

2. Ceddane Rafaela (#37 overall)

3. Triston Casas (#40 overall)

4. Miguel Bleis (#72 overall)

 

5. Bryan Mata, RHP

Mata returned after missing 2021 due to Tommy John surgery for his first game action in nearly three years, and he was pretty much the same guy: 94-98 mph without much life from a low 3/4 slot, with potential pluses in the hard-sweeping slider and late-tailing changeup, either of which can get up to 90 mph. I didn’t like his arm action before the injury because I thought it would inhibit him from holding up as a starter, which is still true, but his fastball also really plays down from its velocity. I think the Red Sox should try him as a starter, maybe giving him another 10 starts or so in Triple A to get more control back with time, but I would bet on him being a power reliever rather than something more than a back-end rotation guy.

 

6. Nick Yorke, 2B

Yorke was on the top 100 last year after a huge breakout season in 2021 where he hit .325/.412/.516 between Low and High A, mostly the former, with a very pretty right-handed swing that produced a lot of solid line-drive contact. His 2022 was a dud, unfortunately, as he returned to High A and hit just .231/.303/.365 with lower-quality contact than he had the year before. He did fight through some minor injuries, albeit nothing too significant to explain the drop in production. He’s a fringy defender at second with a below-average arm, so he has to hit. He’ll be 21 this year and still has that same swing that led the Red Sox to take him in the first round in the pandemic draft. I’m just a lot more skeptical now than I was a year ago, even with his nice run in the AFL after the 2022 season.

 

7. Mikey Romero, SS

Romero was Boston’s first-round pick in 2022, No. 24, as a polished high school hitter who projected to stay at shortstop and showed good feel for the strike zone. He started to show a little more power last spring, which would give him some more upside beyond that of a solid regular. He’s a high-floor guy for a teenage prospect, due to his defense and the approach we saw from him as an amateur, but whether he has any ceiling beyond solid regular probably depends on his ability to hit for more than fringy power.

 

8. Matt Lugo, SS/3B

Lugo was my sleeper prospect for the Red Sox last year, and he did take a solid step forward, going from a .364 slugging percentage in 2021 to .492 last year, even with a move up one level to High A. He’s still mostly playing shortstop, but third base is much more likely, even before we consider the presence of Mayer and Romero in the system. He looks now like a regular who hits 20-plus homers but with OBPs in the low .300s thanks to his 7-8 percent walk rates to date.

 

9. Brandon Walter, LHP

Walter was a senior signed out of the University of Delaware in 2019, drafted in the 26th round even though he’d only just come back from Tommy John surgery that spring. His $35,000 bonus looks criminally low now that he’s on the cusp of the majors, although his 2022 season was slowed by a neck injury. He throws a ton of strikes, nearly 70 percent of his pitches last year, with a fringe-average fastball, plus slider, and average changeup, but his low arm slot gives right-handers a longer look at the ball and the delivery would seem to put some stress on his shoulder (or neck, I guess). He has a chance to be a back-end starter as a finesse lefty, but it’s slightly more likely he’ll end up a reliever.

 

10. Blaze Jordan, 3B/1B

Jordan was the team’s third-round pick in 2020, taking an over-slot bonus as a young high school senior who would put on a big power show in BP but didn’t bring it over to games. That’s more or less what he’s been so far in the minors, with high contact rates but less of the big-fly power he’d show in workouts. He hit .289/.363/.445 last year between both A-ball levels, with just an 18 percent strikeout rate and good contact quality, including 30 doubles. He did make adjustments well during the season after a slow start where he struggled with offspeed pitches, and he’ll be just 20 this year, although I would like to see him do this again against better stuff.

 

11. Chris Murphy, LHP

If Murphy could just throw more strikes — seems simple enough, no? — he’d be a fourth starter. He’ll sit 92-93 mph with a plus changeup and two good-enough breaking balls, getting right-handers out with the change and getting by against lefties because he’s left-handed, but he walked 72 men in 152 innings last year and didn’t throw any of his pitches for strikes often enough to call it a fluke. He’s something, maybe a long reliever, maybe a one-inning guy who picks up a little velo, maybe a guy who figures it out as a starter much later, but he’s a good prospect to have in your system when you need arms.

 

12. Roman Anthony, OF

Anthony was Boston’s second-round pick in 2022 out of a Florida high school, a power-hitting outfielder with a great baseball body but questions about his pitch recognition and ability to get to velocity inside. He had a great if brief pro debut, going 15-for-35 with just 4 strikeouts in the GCL before a promotion to Low A, which is far more contact than I would have guessed for him before the draft. If he’s that much more advanced a hitter than the industry thought, the Red Sox got a steal.

 

13. Edinson Paulino, Wherever

Paulino played five different positions last year, second, third, short, center, and left, taking advantage of his speed and his athleticism. The 5-10 native of the Dominican Republic is still very slight but has filled out a little bit for some more extra-base power, leading the Low-A Carolina League in doubles and triples while tying for 10th in homers. He has a solid approach at the plate with good pitch recognition for his age, while he will certainly play some skill position, possibly even shortstop.

 

14. Brainer Bonaci, SS

Bonaci drew 89 walks against the same number of strikeouts last year as a 19-year-old in Low A, with a passive approach paired with good ball/strike recognition. He’s a switch-hitter who did more damage right-handed but drew far more walks left-handed, which could be compensating for his lack of impact from that side. He can play shortstop but moved around the infield with Mayer there. He needs to show he can do more from the left side than just draw walks to get to his upside as a potential above-average regular at short or second.

 

15. Wikelman Gonzalez, RHP

Gonzalez is a six-foot righty who’s up to 97, sitting more 94ish, with a 55 curveball and fringy changeup, struggling with lefties last year but also with strikes for much of the season. He did finish strongly, though, with 10 walks and 39 strikeouts in 33 innings over his last seven starts, even with a promotion to High A in that stretch. He went unselected in the Rule 5 draft even though Boston declined to protect him this winter, which was a mild surprise. He has to develop a better pitch for lefties but he could still end up a starter.

 

16. Gilberto Jimenez, OF

Jimenez looks like a football player in a baseball uniform, with plus speed, a plus arm, and atrocious plate discipline — he drew 18 walks in 409 plate appearances last year, after drawing 19 walks in 408 plate appearances the year before, so I guess you could argue he’s going very, very, very slightly backwards. His issue is more than just laying off pitches, but making better decisions about when to swing to drive the ball more often. He’ll probably go to Double A this year as a 22-year-old. He has some time left to figure out any sort of plan at the plate, with everyday upside, but it’s far enough away that he’d need a telescope to see it.

 

17. Cutter Coffey, SS

Coffey was a two-way player in high school who struggled badly as a hitter the previous summer at showcases, especially against offspeed stuff, but he has a sound swing with good hip rotation for some power if he can improve his pitch recognition. He was 90-94 mph off the mound and has the arm to slide over to third base, which was scouts’ expectation for him last spring before the draft.

 

18. Nathan Hickey, C

Hickey’s a very disciplined hitter with solid-average power who’s a work in progress behind the plate, improving but still with some ways to go, including controlling the running game after he threw out just 13 percent of runners last year. He has a good chance to be a backup and could still be something more if he gets the defense to a point where he could reasonably play every day.

 

19. Nico Kavadas, 1B

Kavadas mashed against younger pitching as a 23-year-old in Low A and High A last year before finally stalling in Double A against better stuff. He has a good eye at the plate and plus power, but the bat is definitely slow and he’s going to have real trouble with left-handed breaking stuff now that he’s facing competition his own age. He’s limited to first base or DH, so the bat has to play. The OBP/power parts are real if he can find a way to hit enough to get to them.

 

20. Shane Drohan, LHP

Drohan’s a fastball/changeup lefty, 89-93 mph on the heater, with the latter an above-average pitch, while his breaking ball is below average and his command is maybe a 45. He’s on the slight side and might be better as a bulk-innings reliever than as a starter, although he does get righties out well enough for the latter.

[sk7326]

(more)

 

Honorable Mentions

Right-hander Luis Perales is a deep projection guy who’s up to 100 with good characteristics, while his secondary stuff is all a work in progress and he walked 11 men in 10 innings after a late-season promotion to Low A from the complex. He’ll turn 20 in April … Second baseman Chase Meidroth, their fourth-round pick in 2022, is undersized but never strikes out, with a super-short bat path that makes all the contact with none of the power … Fifth-rounder Noah Dean is 93-96 mph from the left side with good ride on the pitch but needs something else in his arsenal. He’s a straight reliever who closed for two years at Old Dominion.

 

Fallen: Cam Cannon

 

Leap Candidates

There are a bunch of guys I like here, including Anthony and Romero from the 2022 draft, but if I’m picking one name it’s Paulino, who can do a lot of things and still offers a good bit of physical projection.

[mvp 78]

Fallen: Cam Cannon

 

He fell all the way to Lehigh Valley.

[Bellhorn04]

He fell all the way to Lehigh Valley.

 

More proof that a great name alone isn't enough.

[Hugh2]

I actually feel better about Law being the lowest on the Sox system after seeing his player rankings. How can he still have Jimenez in the top 20?

[sk7326]

I actually feel better about Law being the lowest on the Sox system after seeing his player rankings. How can he still have Jimenez in the top 20?

 

A dart throw based on an elite athletic profile.

[moonslav59]

I actually feel better about Law being the lowest on the Sox system after seeing his player rankings. How can he still have Jimenez in the top 20?

 

I thought the exact same thing. Big red flag on his knowledge of the Sox system.

[Hugh2]

A dart throw based on an elite athletic profile.

 

Yes, but if you're going on athleticism there's a lot of guys that you can put above him right now.

 

Gilberto was in everyone's top 20 a year ago, It looks more like Law is just late to the party on his drop-off.

[Hugh2]

I thought the exact same thing. Big red flag on his knowledge of the Sox system.

 

To be fair, it has to be hard for a guy like Law to accurately rank 30 teams prospects. How man of these kids has he actually seen? and when he does see them it's a small sample size.

 

People like Law rely heavily on the scouting and consensus of others, others who are legit scouts and evaluators but much of it is still second-hand knowledge. Which makes it all the more perplexing that his rankings are more out of line than others.

 

Maybe I'm just biased against Law, I don't think he's horrible at what he does but he always seems to be lower on the Sox than anyone else.

[moonslav59]

To be fair, it has to be hard for a guy like Law to accurately rank 30 teams prospects. How man of these kids has he actually seen? and when he does see them it's a small sample size.

 

People like Law rely heavily on the scouting and consensus of others, others who are legit scouts and evaluators but much of it is still second-hand knowledge. Which makes it all the more perplexing that his rankings are more out of line than others.

 

Maybe I'm just biased against Law, I don't think he's horrible at what he does but he always seems to be lower on the Sox than anyone else.

 

The thing is, I doubt there was a single source that had Jimenez ranked highly. On second thought, I see SP's had him 18th.

 

Nevermind.

 

Edited February 7, 2023 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

To be fair, it has to be hard for a guy like Law to accurately rank 30 teams prospects. How man of these kids has he actually seen? and when he does see them it's a small sample size.

 

People like Law rely heavily on the scouting and consensus of others, others who are legit scouts and evaluators but much of it is still second-hand knowledge. Which makes it all the more perplexing that his rankings are more out of line than others.

 

Maybe I'm just biased against Law, I don't think he's horrible at what he does but he always seems to be lower on the Sox than anyone else.

 

Maybe he over-values pitching prospects and under-values position prospects vs. other evaluators.

[moonslav59]

Maybe he over-values pitching prospects and under-values position prospects vs. other evaluators.

 

Has he ever ranked the Sox more highly than the others?

[moonslav59]

soxprospects.com tweaked their rankings as various players were traded and added.

 

The top 21 stayed the same, so these shifts are not earth shattering, and most are just moving up by attrition. I'll only list those who jumped by more than attrition.

 

33 > 26 Hamilton

40 > 27 Ryan Fernández

39 > 31 Marvin Alcantara

 

Fell

34

38

 

Newbies to the top 60:

46. Theo Denlinger (for German)

48. Oddanier Mosqueda

49. Yoeilin Cespedes

 

[mvp 78]

Fernandez rose due to health?

[sk7326]

The thing is, I doubt there was a single source that had Jimenez ranked highly. On second thought, I see SP's had him 18th.

 

Nevermind.

 

 

18 is also not very high and probably outside where you'd expect likely major leaguers anyway. I reckon there is not much separation between 18 and 40 aside from some positional preference and where ceiling vs floor is in your values system.

[sk7326]

Has he ever ranked the Sox more highly than the others?

 

Since Theo/Cherington left? No - but it was also when the system was drained by graduations and such. He put Devers in his Top 100 at ESPN based on what he did in the complex league.

[moonslav59]

18 is also not very high and probably outside where you'd expect likely major leaguers anyway. I reckon there is not much separation between 18 and 40 aside from some positional preference and where ceiling vs floor is in your values system.

 

Law had him 16th- not far from SP.

[moonslav59]

Fernandez rose due to health?

 

I was wondering why, too.

 

I want to know why would Uberstine drop, when 4-5 guys left the list above him?

[Hugh2]

Maybe he over-values pitching prospects and under-values position prospects vs. other evaluators.

 

This is a good point, and would explain a lot.

[Hugh2]

SP has Jimenez at 39, he actually rose from 44 recently but that's probably mostly due to people above him being traded or graduating. I think the fluidity between 40 and 60 is a lot larger than 20 and 40. Jimenez is about 1/2 a season away from not even being ranked, unless he really takes a step forward this year.

[moonslav59]

SP has Jimenez at 39, he actually rose from 44 recently but that's probably mostly due to people above him being traded or graduating. I think the fluidity between 40 and 60 is a lot larger than 20 and 40. Jimenez is about 1/2 a season away from not even being ranked, unless he really takes a step forward this year.

 

He was #18, last spring on SP.

 

They had him 9th on NOV 2021.

[moonslav59]

I listened to the SP podcast. http://news.soxprospects.com/2023/02/podcast-ep-273-one-where-we-talk-about.html

 

They spoke of how the farm people are basically the same people as under DD. They spoke of Bloom's trades and felt like we should not have expected great returns on guys like Moreland, Vaz and other, and that the Betts trade was severely hampered by including Price. (Downs missing "hurts a lot.") The Beni trade was more about quantity than quality- called in "underwhelming." They seem to feel Bloom has done okay with trades, overall.

 

On Ryan Fernandez moving up: they reacted to feedback they heard on Rule 5 possibilities.

 

On RHern dropping- passing through waivers showed he has very little ML value.

 

They spoke of Goodrum is needed for middle IF depth. Hamilton is not ready. They wondered if Mondesi is only going to miss a few games, maybe they roll with Hamilton or have Wong get reps at 2B. Valdez will get a lot of playing time in ST, but he needs to earn a slot.

 

They say if Mondesi is ready maybe Tapia or Greg Allen will be added to the 40.

 

Dalbec makes no sense on the 26 with healthy Casas and Turner, and no real need for RH'd PH.

 

They wondered about how much the WBC will affect ST'ing and minor league slots. Many of our players are playing in it. Many players will join ST halfway through.

 

[notin]

More proof that a great name alone isn't enough.

 

Maybe he needs to go to Hollywood, where it is enough…

[mvp 78]

I listened to the SP podcast. http://news.soxprospects.com/2023/02/podcast-ep-273-one-where-we-talk-about.html

 

They spoke of how the farm people are basically the same people as under DD.

 

On Ryan Fernandez moving up: they reacted to feedback they heard on Rule 5 possibilities.

 

Parsing out who are Bloom's guys and who are DD's guys doesn't make sense as the vast majority of the players aren't scouted by the CBO prior to entering the system. It's really the BOS system that we can track: the moves that were made and the players that eventually made it to BOS that matter.

 

Part of the Fernandez ranking, I believe, was that they were told there's a chance that he could impact this year's BOS bullpen.

[moonslav59]

Parsing out who are Bloom's guys and who are DD's guys doesn't make sense as the vast majority of the players aren't scouted by the CBO prior to entering the system. It's really the BOS system that we can track: the moves that were made and the players that eventually made it to BOS that matter.

 

Part of the Fernandez ranking, I believe, was that they were told there's a chance that he could impact this year's BOS bullpen.

 

Yup. On Hernandez, they spoke of how they learned more about him when talking Rule chances.

Edited February 13, 2023 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Write up on prospects #56-60 on soxprospects.com:

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2023/02/2023-countdown-to-spring-training-60-56.html

[mvp 78]

Zeferjahn has the tools to be a really solid MLB relief arm, but just has never put it together. Had more hopes for him in '22.

[moonslav59]

Zeferjahn has the tools to be a really solid MLB relief arm, but just has never put it together. Had more hopes for him in '22.

 

Probably the catcher is the only one in this group with a chance to see the bigs.

[mvp 78]

Probably the catcher is the only one in this group with a chance to see the bigs.

 

Mediocre relievers all have the better shot of making the bigs for a cup.

[moonslav59]

Mediocre relievers all have the better shot of making the bigs for a cup.

 

True, but I think McElveny has more upside.