A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Sox are reportedly eating some of Barnes's salary but not nearly all of it.

 

Seems like an excellent piece of work.

[moonslav59]

Matt Barnes to the Marlins for Bleier!

 

Wow! I actually have made many suggested trades with the Marlins that included Bleier.

 

(Not this one, though.)

 

Word is, only $1M is going to MIA, and since Bleier is getting paid $3.5M, it looks like we save $3M on the deal and get a lefty RP'er with some good history.

[moonslav59]

Sox are reportedly eating some of Barnes's salary but not nearly all of it.

 

Seems like an excellent piece of work.

 

It never made sense to me, we'd just DFA him for nothing.

 

How many deals like this have the Marlins made, this winter?

[Old Red]

Bleier has a career ERA of 3.06.

 

Old Schoolers should be lauding this heist!

 

Not bad, but I’m more concerned about K’s, and HA.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Or maybe he thinks new stars = increased interest?

 

During or after 2019, Henry did say he thinks good teams shouldn't stay completely the same, but bring in some new blood, too. I agree to an extent -- youngsters with something to prove or even ringless vets still hungry (mostly for paydays) can keep incumbents from getting complacent. Front offices like to call changes upgrades; in reality they're usually business decisions... though Pena replacing Correa was an all-timer in Houston.

 

But if keeping Bogaerts means Bloom wouldn't have signed Jansen, Turner and Duvall, let's keep it real: while they all fill valuable roles, All-Star Silver Slugger shortstops are among the most indispensable assets on a diamond, along with ace starting pitchers and the catchers who lead them.

 

However, the Red Sox didn't "botch" their chance to keep Xander with the one-year extension offer to the industry's super agent always after the largest longest contracts. That told Bogey they didn't see him in their plans, and may have been a way to prep X for dropping his no-trade at the deadline... thus, July is where Bloom botched his best chance at salvaging something from the Bogaerts' debacle.

[moonslav59]

 

BTV:

-6.7 Barnes

+0.8 Blier

If $1M goes to MIA, it looks like a +6.5 deal for the Sox.

 

From 2016-2022: 87 RP'ers have 250+ IP.

 

Rankings:

 

fWAR

22 Barnes 5.3

31. Bleier 3.8

 

bWAR

Bleier 5.8 in 300 IP

Barnes 4.4 in 432 IP

 

FIP

25. (3.43) Barnes

26. (3.45) Bleier

 

ERA-

14. Bleier 70

51. Barnes 87

 

WHIP

36. Bleier1.20

65. Barnes 1.30

 

K/BB

24. Bleier 3.52

51. Barnes 2.78

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don't know if Bleier is going to fit in. He walked 20 batters... in the last three years combined!

[moonslav59]

I don't know if Bleier is going to fit in. He walked 20 batters... in the last three years combined!

 

You crack me up!

 

Maybe some of the rest of the Sox staff will rub off on him. Give the guy a chance!

[moonslav59]

In no way does the Bleier addition make a big difference in the 26 man roster, but we really needed a solid LH'd RP'er, and Taylor's health was a bigger concerns than Paxton's... errr....Sale, errr, okay, it was pretty major.

 

To me, barring injuries, yeah right, here's the opening day 26:

 

1. L Yoshida LF

2. R Kike SS/2B

3. L Devers 3B

4. R Turner DH

5. L Casas 1B

6. R Duvall CF

7. L Verdugo RF

8. R Arroyo 2B/ S Mondesi SS

9. L McGuire C

Bench: Wong C, Mondesi/Arroyo IF, Refsnyder OF, Valdez IF/Dalbec 1B/Duran OF

 

SP1. Sale

SP2. Kluber

SP3. Whitlock

SP4. Bello

SP5. Pivetta

SP6. Paxton (IL)

 

RP1. Jansen

RP2. Martin

RP3. Houck

RP4. Schreiber

RP6. Rodriguez

RP7. Bleier

RP8. Brasier

 

Farm:

SP: Crawford, Mata, Winckowski, Walter, Murphy

RP: Mills, Kelly, German, Ort

 

 

[moonslav59]

xFIP since 2020 (100+ IP)

10. Martin 2.93

14. Bednar 3.16

19. Bleier 3.23

24. Joely Rodriguez 3.36

27. Scott Barlow 3.47

43. A Chafin3.68

56. Jansen 3.82

65. Barnes 3.87

81. Fulmer 4.07

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You crack me up!

 

Maybe some of the rest of the Sox staff will rub off on him. Give the guy a chance!

 

I've given the Red Sox grief for not signing a top starter this winter, but gotta give Bloom credit for rebuilding the bullpen. Also, have to believe Cora had some input, with what he had to throw out there in the late innings last season -- and yes, even in the '21 playoffs.

 

It may not be coincidence that the "starter" the Sox offered the most money to -- reportedly -- was Eflin, who looked great in relief in the '22 postseason.

[moonslav59]

I've given the Red Sox grief for not signing a top starter this winter, but gotta give Bloom credit for rebuilding the bullpen. Also, have to believe Cora had some input, with what he had to throw out there in the late innings last season -- and yes, even in the '21 playoffs.

 

It may not be coincidence that the "starter" the Sox offered the most money to -- reportedly -- was Eflin, who looked great in relief in the '22 postseason.

 

I'm always for adding to the rotation and not to the 5 slot. either.

 

I had hoped we'd add a better SP'er than Kluber or maybe two guys like Kluber, but I can see how they view moving Whitlock to the pen and upping Bello's ML starts can be considered as close to adding two FT SP'ers to the mix from 2022 to 2023.

 

I like our depth, and the fact that we need just one from Sale and Paxton to reach 5 SP'er:

 

Sale/Paxton

Kluber

Whitlock

Bello

Pivetta

 

It kinda sucks that our most reliable SP'er and odds on IP leader will be our #5 (Pivetta,) but that just is what it is.

 

Back to the depth:

 

Crawford showed some signs of being a capable starter or spot starter.

 

Winckowski showed some very brief moments of promise, but I do think he deserves another legit chance to prove he can stick.

 

Mata is a wild card, but this kid can throw! There is an outside chance he outshines Bello.

 

Walter and Murphy may be best suited for the pen, but one could surprise, if given a chance to start.

 

Having 11 SP'ers with some sort of promise is not a bad thing, but I'd still prefer more quality over quantity. We might find a solid 5, but if we have to go through 6 failed pitchers, we may be out of it, before finding the golden 5.

 

[moonslav59]

Franklin German was just DFA'd to make room for Bleier. German had a crazy-ass OPSA, last season of .492 in 50 IP- best in the whole system.

 

I have to think he'll end up being traded, probably for a not 40 man roster player, within a week.

 

Maybe the Marlins take him, too.

[jacksonianmarch]

I honestly don’t understand that move. He developed how they hoped and cut him after a 4 inning cameo?

[moonslav59]

I honestly don’t understand that move. He developed how they hoped and cut him after a 4 inning cameo?

 

I'm pretty sure this is a prelude to a trade, but still, I agree. This kid has promise, and to me, much more than Ort.

[moonslav59]

Guessing the next Sox DFA has been an interesting winter challenge.

 

If we trade German for another 40 man player, who is next?

 

Maybe we just keep rolling the snowball until opening day.

[moonslav59]

Plus, we lose a big chance at saying "Nah, nah, I told you so" to Yankee fans, if German ends up doing very well. Edited January 30, 2023 by moonslav59

[Hugh2]

This is the one area that even a Bloom un-fan has to give him credit for; that bottom of the roster churn. They might turn around and then say he’s allergic to making good moves at the top of a roster. They….aren’t exactly wrong here.

 

I think we can trade German. I don’t think we get much but it will be something. I think. Who knows, maybe not.

[moonslav59]

This is the one area that even a Bloom un-fan has to give him credit for; that bottom of the roster churn. They might turn around and then say he’s allergic to making good moves at the top of a roster. They….aren’t exactly wrong here.

 

I think we can trade German. I don’t think we get much but it will be something. I think. Who knows, maybe not.

 

I think this one will be traded for a decent prospect, but not a 40 man roster prospect.

[moonslav59]

Reports are now saying BOS is paying $5M or $5.5M to MIA in the Barnes for Bleier trade- seems more like it.

[a700hitter]

Wow! I actually have made many suggested trades with the Marlins that included Bleier.

 

(Not this one, though.)

 

Word is, only $1M is going to MIA, and since Bleier is getting paid $3.5M, it looks like we save $3M on the deal and get a lefty RP'er with some good history.

Are you willing to share the blame if we finish in last place?

[a700hitter]

I thought German was supposed to be the gem in the Ottavino acquisition.

[moonslav59]

Are you willing to share the blame if we finish in last place?

 

If I knew what this meant, I might reply.

[moonslav59]

I thought German was supposed to be the gem in the Ottavino acquisition.

 

He did seem pretty promising. We may end up trading him for a promising prospect farther away. Let's see.

[notin]

I'm pretty sure this is a prelude to a trade, but still, I agree. This kid has promise, and to me, much more than Ort.

 

I don’t get the faith in Ort.

 

Not to mention, if the goal is to slip someone through waivers, why not the 31yo career minor leaguer that every team in MLB has been ignoring since his days on the Joliet Slammers…

[notin]

He did seem pretty promising. We may end up trading him for a promising prospect farther away. Let's see.

 

German is more likely to be dealt, since he’s not outside the price range of any team…

[moonslav59]

I don’t get the faith in Ort.

 

Not to mention, if the goal is to slip someone through waivers, why not the 31yo career minor leaguer that every team in MLB has been ignoring since his days on the Joliet Slammers…

 

I was pretty certain Barnes was going to be traded, and I'm more certain German will be. I think we'll get a decent A or AA prospect for him.

 

I share in the wonderment over Ort.

 

I'm about to give up on my DFA list, when we keep DFA'ing guys not even on my top 5 list or dishonorable mentions, either.

[moonslav59]

German is more likely to be dealt, since he’s not outside the price range of any team…

 

True nuff, but when you pay $5M on Barnes and take back a $3.5M guy, it amounts to about the same thing, right?

[a700hitter]

If I knew what this meant, I might reply.

But yet you replied.

[notin]

Are you willing to share the blame if we finish in last place?

 

Are you actually going to blame people on this board if the Sox do?