A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

But then someone being paid, at least $725K takes Barnes' place on the 40 man roster and cancels out that "savings." The tax budget counts only 40 man roster and IL players.

 

$9,250,000 Barnes- $725,000 + $725,000 (or more) for the player added to the 40, when barnes leaves, and so there is never a "savings" overall.

 

Leaving the tax calcs out of it, if another team signs him, it will cost the team $725 K less in actual cash than if Barnes retires.

[mvp 78]

Leaving the tax calcs out of it, if another team signs him, it will cost the team $725 K less in actual cash than if Barnes retires.

 

^^^

[moonslav59]

Leaving the tax calcs out of it, if another team signs him, it will cost the team $725 K less in actual cash than if Barnes retires.

 

I get that. Yes, we save $725K on his contract, but it's not really an overall savings to the team (not just the tax budget but the payroll budget, too), than if we kept him. His roster spot is filled by someone who will get paid $725K or more. At best, we stay even.

[Bellhorn04]

I get that. Yes, we save $725K on his contract, but it's not really an overall savings to the team (not just the tax budget but the payroll budget, too), than if we kept him. His roster spot is filled by someone who will get paid $725K or more. At best, we stay even.

 

Here's what I'm talking about:

 

Scenario A: Red Sox release Barnes. He retires.

Scenario B: Red Sox release Barnes. He signs with another team.

 

The Red Sox are better off cash-wise in Scenario B, True or False.

[moonslav59]

It seems like we will be about $17-20M below the tax line. I know we need to keep a buffer for call-ups and maybe deadline additions, but we seemed to leave some cash on the table.

 

You wonder, if it was a directive or just the way it worked out.

[Bellhorn04]

It seems like we will be about $17-20M below the tax line. I know we need to keep a buffer for call-ups and maybe deadline additions, but we seemed to leave some cash on the table.

 

You wonder, if it was a directive or just the way it worked out.

 

I suspect Bloom has this year's finances figured out to the penny. The other possibility is another signing, maybe a reliever. Hard to say.

[moonslav59]

Here's what I'm talking about:

 

Scenario A: Red Sox release Barnes. He retires.

Scenario B: Red Sox release Barnes. He signs with another team.

 

The Red Sox are better off cash-wise in Scenario B, True or False.

 

I understand your point, and looking at only what we are paying Barnes in a vacuum, yes. we save $725K vs if he retires and nobody pays him $725M. Yes, we pay his whole salary plus the guy who takes his spot. Yes, $725K more. I get it.

 

My point is, that if another team grabs him and pays the min, and we have to replace his open slot on the 40 and pay that person at least the min, it ends up being as a wash, overall. Assuming we replace him with someone making $725K, the MLB budget stays the same. The $725M is just replaced, because you have to have 40 on the roster and they all make a min salary.

 

Barnes is going to play somewhere and be paid the min. We save that $725K. We will replace his slot on the 40 and pay at least $725K. The 40 man budget is not affected by the switcheroo.

[moonslav59]

I suspect Bloom has this year's finances figured out to the penny. The other possibility is another signing, maybe a reliever. Hard to say.

 

I'm just wondering if JH set a budget priority at $%20M under, of if Bloom chose to keep the "buffer."

[moonslav59]

MLBTR Chat, Anthony Franco was asked if Barnes would be traded...

 

Seems unlikely but not impossible. Red Sox would have to eat virtually all the money ($9.75MM) to do it but they're going to be on the hook for it anyways if they release him, so they should be open to it.

And if Boston's paying Barnes down to like $2-3MM to salvage a lottery ticket prospect out of the deal, I'd give that serious consideration if I were another team. He still throws hard and can miss bats, and if you get him on the current contract -- again, paid most of the way down by Boston -- it comes with a 2024 club option that offers you some upside if you get him back on track

Wait until he gets released and sign him for the league minimum, and that 2024 option goes away

[notin]

Here's what I'm talking about:

 

Scenario A: Red Sox release Barnes. He retires.

Scenario B: Red Sox release Barnes. He signs with another team.

 

The Red Sox are better off cash-wise in Scenario B, True or False.

 

True but the savings is negligible…

[mvp 78]

True but the savings is negligible…

 

The savings is negligible, but it's winning the argument that matters.

[notin]

The savings is negligible, but it's winning the argument that matters.

 

Ignoring the addition of Duvall for a second, they’re both right but with poor timing.

 

1. Yes if Barnes clears waivers and another team signs him for $725,000, that lowers the Sox tax burden by $725,000.

 

2. It is true the Sox will eventually fill that 40 man roster spot with another player who will make a minimum of $725,000, thus negating the savings from part one. (I know this part was done already by Duvall and his $7mill commitment.)

[moonslav59]

Ignoring the addition of Duvall for a second, they’re both right but with poor timing.

 

1. Yes if Barnes clears waivers and another team signs him for $725,000, that lowers the Sox tax burden by $725,000.

 

2. It is true the Sox will eventually fill that 40 man roster spot with another player who will make a minimum of $725,000, thus negating the savings from part one. (I know this part was done already by Duvall and his $7mill commitment.)

 

Barnes' slot was going to always go to a 26 man roster guy, even if by attrition. He could be replaced by a minor league contract, but then a minor leaguer would have to be promoted to the 26 to take his slot, once the season begins and players get paid.

 

I totally get Bell's point, and he is correct, but after everything is settled, there is no true saving on the payroll budget.

[Bellhorn04]

Barnes' slot was going to always go to a 26 man roster guy, even if by attrition. He could be replaced by a minor league contract, but then a minor leaguer would have to be promoted to the 26 to take his slot, once the season begins and players get paid.

 

I totally get Bell's point, and he is correct, but after everything is settled, there is no true saving on the payroll budget.

 

But Barnes would have to replaced in either case, whether or not another team signs him.

[moonslav59]

But Barnes would have to replaced in either case, whether or not another team signs him.

 

I've never disagreed with your point, but yes, I'm saying any player who is DFA'd will be replaced on the roster at min wage cots, minimum, which is what another team pays, if they take the DFA'd player. It's a wash, when it comes to the payroll budget (tax and non tax.)

 

Yes, if nobody claims Barnes, and we don't get the $725K savings and then are forced to replace his roster slot, we end up paying at least $725K more, but if someone pays Barnes the min, our budget pretty much can not go down, overall.

[moonslav59]

I've never disagreed with your point, but yes, I'm saying any player who is DFA'd will be replaced on the roster at min wage cots, minimum, which is what another team pays, if they take the DFA'd player. It's a wash, when it comes to the payroll budget (tax and non tax.)

 

Yes, if nobody claims Barnes, and we don't get the $725K savings and then are forced to replace his roster slot, we end up paying at least $725K more, but if someone pays Barnes the min, our budget pretty much can not go down, overall.

 

Case 1: We keep barnes and pay him $9M.

 

Case 2: Another team pays him $725K and we pay $8.25M and the player who takes his place on the 26/40 man roster, at least $725K. ($8.25 +.75=$9.0)

 

Case 3: Nobody takes Barnes and we pay him $9M and the guy who takes his place at least $725K. $9.0M + $725K= $9.75M. YES

[Bobe2]

https://www.si.com/mlb/red-sox/news/ex-red-sox-pitcher-reportedly-signs-lucrative-contract-extension-with-rays here's a trade bloom made that nobody's talking about

[moonslav59]

https://www.si.com/mlb/red-sox/news/ex-red-sox-pitcher-reportedly-signs-lucrative-contract-extension-with-rays here's a trade bloom made that nobody's talking about

 

It's been talked about quite a bit.

 

Remember, Bloom traded for him as well as traded him away.

[mvp 78]

We still have the guy they traded him for. Springs was just going to be DFA'd anyway. I don't think many people on here were clamoring to keep Springs or Mazza after 2020, so anyone trying to slag Bloom for this can long walk/short pier IMO.

[moonslav59]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/red-sox-remain-open-to-middle-infield-acquisitions.html

[moonslav59]

We still have the guy they traded him for. Springs was just going to be DFA'd anyway. I don't think many people on here were clamoring to keep Springs or Mazza after 2020, so anyone trying to slag Bloom for this can long walk/short pier IMO.

 

This one is certainly a hindsight blast.

[Bobe2]

It's been talked about quite a bit.

 

Remember, Bloom traded for him as well as traded him away.

 

I never saw anyone mention it, but I’m not here that much, it seem the longer this goes on the worse it gets,

[mvp 78]

I never saw anyone mention it, but I’m not here that much, it seem the longer this goes on the worse it gets,

 

The longer what goes on? Springs was traded years ago and nobody really gave a s*** then. Nobody really batted an eye in 2021. It wasn't until 2022 that posters started complaining about it.

[Bobe2]

This one is certainly a hindsight blast.

 

No offense, but isn’t that what you all do, almost everything on these boards are in hindsight

[Bobe2]

The longer what goes on? Springs was traded years ago and nobody really gave a s*** then. Nobody really batted an eye in 2021. It wasn't until 2022 that posters started complaining about it.

 

Not springs, the whole Redsox Bloom thing it just seems to go deeper down the hole every year

[mvp 78]

Not springs, the whole Redsox Bloom thing it just seems to go deeper down the hole every year

 

Bloom has made some really bad and/or weird decisions with the roster. I support the direction of the team, but the moves have been not good. If this year leaves us with the same amount of hope as last season, he needs to pack his bags. He's very replaceable and they can continue to stay the course on building the farm and just not having a nitwit at the top. I've listed the dumb things Bloom has done, I don't think Springs is in the top 10.

 

However, it was weird that they dumped Springs and Mazza at the time. Springs had some ups and downs in 2020, but NESN talked him up as a late inning reliever throughout 2020. The Sox liked his k rate and some of his spin rates. The underlying metrics were decent. While he had a 7.08 ERA, his xFIP was 3.70. There were lots of signs that he'd be better in the future. Mazza was relatively reliable in 2020 as a backend starter and the bottom of the 40 man roster was pathetic enough that there were far worse players that could have been DFA'd. Ronaldo Hernandez hasn't been very good since coming over in the deal and the guys they could have cleared from the 40 man at the time included Ryan Weber, Austin Brice and Colten Brewer.

 

Sometimes you just need to trust the original evaluation?

[notin]

Bloom has made some really bad and/or weird decisions with the roster. I support the direction of the team, but the moves have been not good. If this year leaves us with the same amount of hope as last season, he needs to pack his bags. He's very replaceable and they can continue to stay the course on building the farm and just not having a nitwit at the top. I've listed the dumb things Bloom has done, I don't think Springs is in the top 10.

 

However, it was weird that they dumped Springs and Mazza at the time. Springs had some ups and downs in 2020, but NESN talked him up as a late inning reliever throughout 2020. The Sox liked his k rate and some of his spin rates. The underlying metrics were decent. While he had a 7.08 ERA, his xFIP was 3.70. There were lots of signs that he'd be better in the future. Mazza was relatively reliable in 2020 as a backend starter and the bottom of the 40 man roster was pathetic enough that there were far worse players that could have been DFA'd. Ronaldo Hernandez hasn't been very good since coming over in the deal and the guys they could have cleared from the 40 man at the time included Ryan Weber, Austin Brice and Colten Brewer.

 

Sometimes you just need to trust the original evaluation?

 

If everyone made a list of their 10 worst Bloom moves, the lists would be all over the place, and any ensuing debate might ignore the obvious - which is that there are a lot of candidates. Conversely if we named the 10 best, I would expect much similar lists, although some differences due to how they get weighed by individuals and some wouldn’t credit him for moves they felt were obvious.

 

I think his direction is what this team needs. His steps to get there are largely debatable…

[moonslav59]

No offense, but isn’t that what you all do, almost everything on these boards are in hindsight

 

It's one thing to trade Betts, when we all knew he was great. it's another to trade a guy just about everyone thought should be DFA'd. Criticizing that trade is all hindsight. It's not to say a mistake was not made, but this one was understandable, to a greater extent than the Renfroe, beni and other trades.

[Bellhorn04]

Simple rules for GM's #27:

 

Never trade a pitcher to the Rays. If they want him, it means he's better than you think, and you should keep him.

[notin]

Simple rules for GM's #27:

 

Never trade a pitcher to the Rays. If they want him, it means he's better than you think, and you should keep him.

 

What if they’re sending back Nate Eovaldi?