How much would you offer Devers?

[notin]

The name of his first born is already prominently tattooed on his arm.

 

If you get a $300mill contract, you’re allowed to start counting again…

[Kimmi]

They need to offer him more than any other team does. Period. They already traded an all time great in Betts. They need to retain Bogey and Devers.

 

I'd hate to see them go, but I strongly disagree with the idea of offering either Devers or Bogaerts more than any other team does. I am not offering Devers $300M nor am I offering him 10+ years.

 

That kind of money tied up into one player is almost never a good idea.

[Bellhorn04]

I'd hate to see them go, but I strongly disagree with the idea of offering either Devers or Bogaerts more than any other team does. I am not offering Devers $300M nor am I offering him 10+ years.

 

That kind of money tied up into one player is almost never a good idea.

 

So what's the most you'd offer Devers?

[Kimmi]

So what's the most you'd offer Devers?

 

It's hard for me to put a definitive max on my contract offer, but I'd say at the end of this year, 8 yrs/$240M would be a max. That buys out one year of arb and extends him for 7 additional years. Even that offer makes me cringe a little, but it is what it is.

[Jasonbay44]

I’m handing Devers a blank check. There is very few guys who are this good at that age. Similar to Juan Soto with the Nats, you don’t trade these guys or let them even touch free agency.

[notin]

What was the Sox original offer to Devers?

[notin]

I’m handing Devers a blank check. There is very few guys who are this good at that age. Similar to Juan Soto with the Nats, you don’t trade these guys or let them even touch free agency.

 

Would you have handed Betts a blank check?

[Jasonbay44]

Would you have handed Betts a blank check?

 

Yes. I was very vocal about not wanting him to be traded.

[notin]

Yes. I was very vocal about not wanting him to be traded.

 

In didn’t want him traded, but it did get to the point where it was clear he was not going to re-sign…

[Jasonbay44]

In didn’t want him traded, but it did get to the point where it was clear he was not going to re-sign…

 

I mean I get that it got to a point where they had no choice, but that was most likely due to some behinds they scenes stuff we’ll never know, maybe they low balled him? Maybe they offended him? Maybe Mookie just really did want to leave Boston and wasn’t going to re-sign no matter what.

 

Devers on the other hand seems pretty happy in Boston and there is no indication he wants to leave, especially if his demands are met, which the Sox should do, IMO

[moonslav59]

Yes. I was very vocal about not wanting him to be traded.

So, yes on blank check Betts?

[Old Red]

Yes. I was very vocal about not wanting him to be traded.

 

Betts wasn’t a $30M man last year, and I would hate to think of paying him 11 more years. Renfroe outhit Betts last year for $3M.

[notin]

I’m handing Devers a blank check. There is very few guys who are this good at that age. Similar to Juan Soto with the Nats, you don’t trade these guys or let them even touch free agency.

 

 

Looking at this again, my first thought is - no, Devers is not in the same class as Soto. Soto has a career OPS+ of 159 at age 23. At that age, Devers’ career OPS+ was 115. Devers is a great player and a perennial All Star, but Soto is next level, possibly multiple levels ahead.

 

I wouldn’t give Devers a blank check, but at his age an 8 year $240 mill is my ceiling.

 

My fear is that’s what Bogaerts’ is thinking he’s worth, and Devers has even crazier contract demands…

[Bellhorn04]

So, yes on blank check Betts?

 

Yes, he said yes to that.

[Jasonbay44]

Betts wasn’t a $30M man last year, and I would hate to think of paying him 11 more years. Renfroe outhit Betts last year for $3M.

Betts still has a far bigger impact overall than Renfroe.

[moonslav59]

It's hard for me to put a definitive max on my contract offer, but I'd say at the end of this year, 8 yrs/$240M would be a max. That buys out one year of arb and extends him for 7 additional years. Even that offer makes me cringe a little, but it is what it is.

 

If you are buying out his last arb year, Devers would be only 33 his last year of the deal. Do you really doubt his value at ages 34, 35 and maybe 36, so much that you would not pay him $20M a year for those 2 or 3 years. Why not add $40M and 2 years to your offer and make it $280M/10?

 

Age 35 is not all that past prime, and Devers is the kind of pure hitter that should age well, even if just as a DH or 1Bman at that point in his career.

 

IMO, I'd go even farther and try to get him to take max money while lowering the AVV. I might start at $300M/12, then offer $300M/11 and finally settle on $300M/10.

 

$300M/10 is certainly pushing the envelope on the last 2-3 years of the deal, but to me, he's worth more than $30M a year for the first 5-7 years of the deal. Hie improved defense has stepped up my plea...

 

Devers Forevers!

 

[moonslav59]

Yes, he said yes to that.

 

My follow up, had we blank checked Betts, that might have been $400M/12. Could we then afford blank checking Devers, who might demand $340M/12?

[notin]

Betts wasn’t a $30M man last year, and I would hate to think of paying him 11 more years. Renfroe outhit Betts last year for $3M.

 

Renfroe was a better deal, but he didn’t outhit Betts using any metric…

[Jasonbay44]

Looking at this again, my first thought is - no, Devers is not in the same class as Soto. Soto has a career OPS+ of 159 at age 23. At that age, Devers’ career OPS+ was 115. Devers is a great player and a perennial All Star, but Soto is next level, possibly multiple levels ahead.

 

I wouldn’t give Devers a blank check, but at his age an 8 year $240 mill is my ceiling.

 

My fear is that’s what Bogaerts’ is thinking he’s worth, and Devers has even crazier contract demands…

 

Sure, Soto is better. He is a hell of a player and has the potential to go down as an all time great, and he’s also somehow still only 23.

 

The point wasn’t necessarily that they’re same player, it’s just young superstars, like Soto and Devers shouldn’t ever be traded/let go in free agency unless absolutely necessary. The fact there is even Soto trade rumors, granted who knows how true they are, is insane.

[moonslav59]

Renfroe was a better deal, but he didn’t outhit Betts using any metric…

 

His "metric" is rbi, and comparing a leadoff hitter vs a 6 slot hitter skews that flawed comp even more.

[Bellhorn04]

Renfroe was a better deal, but he didn’t outhit Betts using any metric…

 

Old Red is into Ribbiemetrics.

[Bellhorn04]

Looking at this again, my first thought is - no, Devers is not in the same class as Soto. Soto has a career OPS+ of 159 at age 23. At that age, Devers’ career OPS+ was 115. Devers is a great player and a perennial All Star, but Soto is next level, possibly multiple levels ahead.

 

I wouldn’t give Devers a blank check, but at his age an 8 year $240 mill is my ceiling.

 

I thought you said at one point you'd go as high as $300 mill for Devers. But I could easily be mistaken.

[moonslav59]

Sure, Soto is better. He is a hell of a player and has the potential to go down as an all time great, and he’s also somehow still only 23.

 

The point wasn’t necessarily that they’re same player, it’s just young superstars, like Soto and Devers shouldn’t ever be traded/let go in free agency unless absolutely necessary. The fact there is even Soto trade rumors, granted who knows how true they are, is insane.

 

To me, the age factor is the premium. I agree.

 

People get locked into the "never 10 years" mantra that is possibly based on the normal FA age of 28-31 range.

.

Devers is 25, and could be just 26 to 35 with a 10 year extension that buys out his 2023 final arb year. 35 is not 37-40

 

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Looking at this again, my first thought is - no, Devers is not in the same class as Soto. Soto has a career OPS+ of 159 at age 23. At that age, Devers’ career OPS+ was 115. Devers is a great player and a perennial All Star, but Soto is next level, possibly multiple levels ahead.

 

I wouldn’t give Devers a blank check, but at his age an 8 year $240 mill is my ceiling.

 

My fear is that’s what Bogaerts’ is thinking he’s worth, and Devers has even crazier contract demands…

 

As for Betts, since he signed in LA during the pandemic summer for around the same AAV he turned down in Boston, we'll never know if he wasn't traded if he'd still be here today.

 

Maybe Bloom and Co. are waiting to see Boras' demands for X and then what he has to settle for on the market, before making a legitimate offer that can keep Devers here.

 

In other words, if Bogey doesn't get his respect -- $30M AAV -- then that may be the ceiling the Sox can reasonably offer the younger Rafey.

 

Then again, if Bogey gets his $30, then the Sox may figure Devers will fetch at least $35... which they may decide is too rich, at which point they'll deal him.

[notin]

Old Red is into Ribbiemetrics.

 

Which is why I pointed out Bradley and Renfroe are pretty close in that department…

[notin]

I thought you said at one point you'd go as high as $300 mill for Devers. But I could easily be mistaken.

 

I think I expected it to get that high. But I shudder at 10 year deals. Even 8 years ones…

[notin]

As for Betts, since he signed in LA during the pandemic summer for around the same AAV he turned down in Boston, we'll never know if he wasn't traded if he'd still be here today.

 

Maybe Bloom and Co. are waiting to see Boras' demands for X and then what he has to settle for on the market, before making a legitimate offer that can keep Devers here.

 

In other words, if Bogey doesn't get his respect -- $30M AAV -- then that may be the ceiling the Sox can reasonably offer the younger Rafey.

 

Then again, if Bogey gets his $30, then the Sox may figure Devers will fetch at least $35... which they may decide is too rich, at which point they'll deal him.

 

If Bogaerts get $30mill, that’s probably a bad move preferably by some other team. Unless it’s like Correa’s deal. For a 3 year contract, I’m ok with a much higher AAV than I normally condone…

[notin]

To me, the age factor is the premium. I agree.

 

People get locked into the "never 10 years" mantra that is possibly based on the normal FA age of 28-31 range.

.

Devers is 25, and could be just 26 to 35 with a 10 year extension that buys out his 2023 final arb year. 35 is not 37-40

 

 

 

 

I generally prefer shorter deals, but if the Sox lock up Devers for 10/$300, I might not mind.

 

I’m starting to think Devers at 10/$300 might be a better move than Bogaerts at 6/$150…

[Bellhorn04]

If Bogaerts get $30mill, that’s probably a bad move preferably by some other team. Unless it’s like Correa’s deal. For a 3 year contract, I’m ok with a much higher AAV than I normally condone…

 

I shudder at Correa's deal too, simply because of the opt-outs. The Twins are only guaranteed one year of his services. But Correa is guaranteed $105 mill if he sticks around.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If Bogaerts get $30mill, that’s probably a bad move preferably by some other team. Unless it’s like Correa’s deal. For a 3 year contract, I’m ok with a much higher AAV than I normally condone…

 

But none of us believe Boras won't demand at least that, comparing X to all the other guys that have exceeded that. That's why most of us know he's as good as gone.