A Realistic View at 2022: Part III

[Maxbialystock]

Maybe they figured cosers are usually available at the deadline, and if you have to go weak somewhere, the pen is it.

 

Sound familiar?

 

These days a strong bullpen seems to be the sine qua non for success. On the other hand, I think our bullpen has done better than I expected and think Houck just might have solved the closer problem.

 

So I'm inclined to agree don't overspend on the bullpen.

 

I just looked at the top closers in MLB, the guys with the most saves and good (under 3.00) ERA's.

 

The two best seem to be Jorge Lopez (Orioles) with a WAR of 2.0 and an ERA of 0.75 and Clay Homes (Yankees) with 2.0 and .52.

 

Lopez's salary this year is $1.5M and Holmes's $1M.

[moonslav59]

 

...Duran has been exceptional, he is everything we wanted out of him and more...

 

I want plus defense, so not quite everything.

[Maxbialystock]

I want plus defense, so not quite everything.

 

Duran's defense is negative, but he sure has been useful leading off. Given his sitting out the Toronto series, I think we can credit him with more than his share of chutzpah.

[moonslav59]

Duran's defense is negative, but he sure has been useful leading off. Given his sitting out the Toronto series, I think we can credit him with more than his share of chutzpah.

 

I'm loving what I'm seeing. I'm just not loving "everything."

 

Someone even called him "great" on defense, on another thread.

[Larry Cook]

If you watch Duran and Bradley in the outfield.

 

at the crack of the bat, Bradley is already moving to exactly where the ball is headed. It’s like esp or something!

 

At the crack of the bat, Duran is standing still and trying to figure out where the ball is going. Then he uses his speed to try and get there.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If you watch Duran and Bradley in the outfield.

 

at the crack of the bat, Bradley is already moving to exactly where the ball is headed. It’s like esp or something!

 

At the crack of the bat, Duran is standing still and trying to figure out where the ball is going. Then he uses his speed to try and get there.

 

I love your poem. But the correct spelling isn't esp, it's reps. Bradley isn't the fastest outfielder in baseball -- and has probably never even been the fastest on the Red Sox -- but he might get the best jump of any outfielder in the world. He was already a star outfielder in college.

 

Duran is still learning the position, and outrunning his non-jumps to catch up to flies with his speed. It's what most ballplayers have always done when first playing outfield. And most professional outfielders are converted from the infield -- we know this to be true, because at every level growing up, the best players are always pitchers who play shortstop when they don't pitch. .. and they bat clean-up (and eventually get elected class president, date the prom queen, and are always taller than you).

[Larry Cook]

I love your poem. But the correct spelling isn't esp, it's reps. Bradley isn't the fastest outfielder in baseball -- and has probably never even been the fastest on the Red Sox -- but he might get the best jump of any outfielder in the world. He was already a star outfielder in college.

 

Duran is still learning the position, and outrunning his non-jumps to catch up to flies with his speed. It's what most ballplayers have always done when first playing outfield. And most professional outfielders are converted from the infield -- we know this to be true, because at every level growing up, the best players are always pitchers who play shortstop when they don't pitch. .. and they bat clean-up (and eventually get elected class president, date the prom queen, and are always taller than you).

 

I believe “instincts” like those that Bradley has is a purely god given talent. I watched Bradley a ton at sc and from the day he arrived, until the day he left, he had that incredible ability to predict where the ball was going before it left the bat!

[moonslav59]

I believe “instincts” like those that Bradley has is a purely god given talent. I watched Bradley a ton at sc and from the day he arrived, until the day he left, he had that incredible ability to predict where the ball was going before it left the bat!

 

100%!

 

It's why he was my favorite player for nearly a decade.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

What happens when Gonzalez comes back? Does Duran go back to AAA? I wouldn't do that, I don't see the point of sending Duran back to AAA. It is time for Duran to gain major league experience as a starting OF. Duran is the future, whereas guys like Gonzalez and Bradley have no future with the Red Sox.

[Larry Cook]

What happens when Gonzalez comes back? Does Duran go back to AAA? I wouldn't do that, I don't see the point of sending Duran back to AAA. It is time for Duran to gain major league experience as a starting OF. Duran is the future, whereas guys like Gonzalez and Bradley have no future with the Red Sox.

 

Excuse my ignorance, but who is Gonzalez?

[JDavis76]

excuse my ignorance, but who is gonzalez?

 

lol

[moonslav59]

Excuse my ignorance, but who is Gonzalez?

 

I think he meant Kike.

 

Wikelman Gonzalez, ranked #12 on soxprospects.com.

 

https://www.soxprospects.com/players/gonzalez-wikelman.htm

[JDavis76]

I think he meant Kike.

 

Wikelman Gonzalez, ranked #12 on soxprospects.com.

 

https://www.soxprospects.com/players/gonzalez-wikelman.htm

 

Pretty sure fan since boggs would have a tough time naming 5 players on the sox ML roster, let alone knowing who their 12th ranked prospect is.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Making up for lack of offense with defense isn't something new. Ozzie Smith is in the Hall of Fame, after all.

 

But a SS has many more chances to make a difference in a game than a right fielder. And Smith's career average is .273, he was never an offensive liability the way JBJ is with a career average of 229.

 

I agree JBJ gets a great jump, so we may never really know the answer to a question that has to be asked: Just how many balls does JBJ get to in a week that the average ML outfielder (most are pretty damned good) do not? Is he really making more plays to offset all the additional empty at bats? We saw Duran got 17 hits in only 9 games, he isn't striking out and even many of his outs were hit well. In those 9 games (well it was actually 7 as he didn't play in 2 of them) JBJ got 3 hits, I didn't even bother to look up how many strikeouts but we know it's high.

 

Did Duran really not get to enough balls that JBJ would have tracked down in those games to offset all those additional hits? Not in my book.

Edited June 28, 2022 by Yaz Fan Since '67

[Bellhorn04]

But a SS has many more chances to make a difference in a game than a right fielder. And Smith's career average is .273, he was never an offensive liability the way JBJ is with a career average of 229.

 

I agree JBJ gets a great jump, so we may never really know the answer to a question that has to be asked: Just how many balls does JBJ get to in a week that the average ML outfielder (most are pretty damned good) do not? Is he really making more plays to offset all the additional empty at bats? We saw Duran got 17 hits in only 9 games, he isn't striking out and even many of his outs were hit well. In those 9 games (well it was actually 7 as he didn't play in 2 of them) JBJ got 3 hits, I didn't even bother to look up how many strikeouts but we know it's high.

 

Did Duran really not get to enough balls that JBJ would have tracked down in those games to offset all those additional hits? Not in my book.

 

This is exactly why I like the advanced defensive metrics and WAR.

 

WAR actually does show that at his current abysmal rate of offensive production, JBJ can't really make up for it with his defense.

 

Duran's current fWAR is +0.5 and JBJ's is -0.5.

[JDavis76]

But a SS has many more chances to make a difference in a game than a right fielder. And Smith's career average is .273, he was never an offensive liability the way JBJ is with a career average of 229.

 

I agree JBJ gets a great jump, so we may never really know the answer to a question that has to be asked: Just how many balls does JBJ get to in a week that the average ML outfielder (most are pretty damned good) do not? Is he really making more plays to offset all the additional empty at bats? We saw Duran got 17 hits in only 9 games, he isn't striking out and even many of his outs were hit well. In those 9 games (well it was actually 7 as he didn't play in 2 of them) JBJ got 3 hits, I didn't even bother to look up how many strikeouts but we know it's high.

 

Did Duran really not get to enough balls that JBJ would have tracked down in those games to offset all those additional hits? Not in my book.

 

Bingo. But I'm sure there will be some moonslop posted shortly to show us that jbj more than makes up for his bat with his glove.

[Kimmi]

Since relief pitchers run so hot & cold, it seems like a good idea to pick up hot ones mid-season rather than sign a bunch of them, go through a trial and error process, and finally get a few that earn their keep.

 

 

My big thing is not to spend a lot of money on relievers.

[moonslav59]

But a SS has many more chances to make a difference in a game than a right fielder. And Smith's career average is .273, he was never an offensive liability the way JBJ is with a career average of 229.

 

I agree JBJ gets a great jump, so we may never really know the answer to a question that has to be asked: Just how many balls does JBJ get to in a week that the average ML outfielder (most are pretty damned good) do not? Is he really making more plays to offset all the additional empty at bats? We saw Duran got 17 hits in only 9 games, he isn't striking out and even many of his outs were hit well. In those 9 games (well it was actually 7 as he didn't play in 2 of them) JBJ got 3 hits, I didn't even bother to look up how many strikeouts but we know it's high.

 

Did Duran really not get to enough balls that JBJ would have tracked down in those games to offset all those additional hits? Not in my book.

 

BA neglects BBs and power.

 

If we knew Duran would continue hitting like this, he'd play over almost any of our OF'ers.

 

That's a big if.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

This is exactly why I like the advanced defensive metrics and WAR.

 

WAR actually does show that at his current abysmal rate of offensive production, JBJ can't really make up for it with his defense.

 

Duran's current fWAR is +0.5 and JBJ's is -0.5.

 

i don't need advanced stats such as WAR which takes into account the other players' performances. I can see it for myself, JBJ is simply not making enough defensive plays to justify his horrible plate appearances. He never did IMO.

[moonslav59]

i don't need advanced stats such as WAR which takes into account the other players' performances. I can see it for myself' date=' JBJ is simply not making enough defensive plays to justify his horrible plate appearances. He never did IMO.[/quote']

 

He's only been a bad hitter in 4 of his 10 seasons- his first 2 (half seasons) and his last 2.

 

He was good enough in between.

 

It's not all about BA on offense. JBJ from 2015-2020:

 

.247 94 336 (That's about 22 HRs per 650 PAs)

.331 OBP

.438 SLG

 

Ozzie career

.262 BA (2 HRs per 650 PAs)

.337 OBP slightly better than JBJ

.328 SLG way worse than JBJ

 

[Bellhorn04]

i don't need advanced stats such as WAR which takes into account the other players' performances. I can see it for myself' date=' JBJ is simply not making enough defensive plays to justify his horrible plate appearances. He never did IMO.[/quote']

 

Never?

[Bellhorn04]

Bingo. But I'm sure there will be some moonslop posted shortly to show us that jbj more than makes up for his bat with his glove.

 

See now, this is a troll post, because it's a totally unprovoked attack.

[moonslav59]

Never?

 

I guess his 2 years in a row hitting over .800 was not enough, bec ause his BA was only .262.

 

Forget the GG caliber D.

Forget the .345 OBP those 2 years.

Forget the 36 HRs and 130 RBI (26 HRs and 95 RBI per 650)

 

His OPS+ was 118, but we don't need metrics to know the guy was a good hitter back then.

[moonslav59]

See now, this is a troll post, because it's a totally unprovoked attack.

 

And misguided. I was firmly against the JBJ trade and do not think he should be playing, except as a late inning defensive replacement at worst and a platoon at best.

 

Had the troll known how to read, he'd have known that.

[Bellhorn04]

And misguided. I was firmly against the JBJ trade and do not think he should be playing, except as a late inning defensive replacement at worst and a platoon at best.

 

Had the troll known how to read, he'd have known that.

 

Yes, you've been more against the JBJ trade than just about anyone here. And you and I have argued about it, even though we're "buddies".

[JDavis76]

See now, this is a troll post, because it's a totally unprovoked attack.

 

Nope, just stated what is painfully obvious.

[Bellhorn04]

Nope, just stated what is painfully obvious.

 

What's painfully obvious is that you choose to ignore the facts presented about moon's dislike for the JBJ trade.

[JDavis76]

What's painfully obvious is that you choose to ignore the facts presented about moon's dislike for the JBJ trade.

 

As you have chosen to ignore his incessant defense of jbj and proclaiming he's his favorite player.

[Bellhorn04]

As you have chosen to ignore his incessant defense of jbj and proclaiming he's his favorite player.

 

Old news. JBJ used to be his favorite player. He hasn't defended him for a long time. He didn't like the trade.

 

You're years behind.

[JDavis76]

Old news. JBJ used to be his favorite player. He hasn't defended him for a long time. He didn't like the trade.

 

You're years behind.

 

Nope, he defended him earlier today, "it's only his first 2 yrs and his last 2 yrs that he was a bad hitter" and "I guess his 2 years in a row hitting over .800 was not enough, bec ause his BA was only .262."