A Realistic View at 2022: Part III

[jad]

So who are the big free agents coming up for auction next year - besides our own?

 

We'll find out once Bloom starts compiling his list of over-paid mediocrities to replace Bogey and Devers.

[moonslav59]

We'll find out once Bloom starts compiling his list of over-paid mediocrities to replace Bogey and Devers.

 

Like he paid Wacha and Hill less than Richards and Perez?

 

Like Schreiber & Strahm less than Ottavino & Andriese?

[notin]

I have Sox offering Xander $200M/6years. I doubt he'll do any better.

 

You have to make choices. I rather take Kike's $7M and Wacha's $7M and pay Xander. We gave Wacha a one year deal for a reason.

 

If Xander wants $200mill over 6 years, I’d be surprised if he found a taker. You’re probably looking at 2 prime years before he starts to decline for which he gets $66.7 mill and then 4 years of his descent that earns him $133.4 mill. I don’t think many teams will want 2/3 of a $30mill AAV contract after the age of 32…

[moonslav59]

If Xander wants $200mill over 6 years, I’d be surprised if he found a taker. You’re probably looking at 2 prime years before he starts to decline for which he gets $66.7 mill and then 4 years of his descent that earns him $133.4 mill. I don’t think many teams will want 2/3 of a $30mill AAV contract after the age of 32…

 

It's hard to know.

 

If you go by the Baez and Story comps, $200M/6 is too high, but I think he's got better name recognition and maybe the ability to generate more fan excitement than the two similar comps that signed, this winter.

 

fWAR from 2018-2022

17.4 Bogey (18.7 bWAR)

16.6 Baez (18.8 bWAR)

15.8 Story (19.5 bWAR)

15.6 Semien

15.1 Correa (who is younger)

10.3 Seager (who is younger)

[moonslav59]

It's hard to know.

 

If you go by the Baez and Story comps, $200M/6 is too high, but I think he's got better name recognition and maybe the ability to generate more fan excitement than the two similar comps that signed, this winter.

 

fWAR from 2018-2022

17.4 Bogey (18.7 bWAR)

16.6 Baez (18.8 bWAR)

15.8 Story (19.5 bWAR)

15.6 Semien

15.1 Correa (who is younger)

10.3 Seager (who is younger)

 

Semien is older than Bogey (20.4 bWAR 2018-2022)

[mvp 78]

It's hard to know.

 

If you go by the Baez and Story comps, $200M/6 is too high, but I think he's got better name recognition and maybe the ability to generate more fan excitement than the two similar comps that signed, this winter.

 

fWAR from 2018-2022

17.4 Bogey (18.7 bWAR)

16.6 Baez (18.8 bWAR)

15.8 Story (19.5 bWAR)

15.6 Semien

15.1 Correa (who is younger)

10.3 Seager (who is younger)

 

It's hard to even compare winter to winter and player to player. I'm not sure anyone could have forecasted what Seager got from the Rangers.

[moonslav59]

It's hard to even compare winter to winter and player to player. I'm not sure anyone could have forecasted what Seager got from the Rangers.

 

That was absurd, especially in light of what Baez and Story got. I think we have to view that contract as an outlier, but maybe Bogey is not viewing it that way.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

That was absurd, especially in light of what Baez and Story got. I think we have to view that contract as an outlier, but maybe Bogey is not viewing it that way.

 

"but maybe" Boras, Boras, Boras!

 

ps. I'm in the camp that thinks this could be a JD comp, when Boras had to settle for half of his opening demands in '18.

[moonslav59]

"but maybe" Boras, Boras, Boras!

 

I'm not good at predicting what FAs will get, but I think Bogey gets $200M/6 or more.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm not good at predicting what FAs will get, but I think Bogey gets $200M/6 or more.

 

But how many big contracts can St. Louis give out? As many as Boston? At least the Redbirds are always all-in...

[mvp 78]

But how many big contracts can St. Louis give out? As many as Boston? At least the Redbirds are always all-in...

 

Who has the most WS rings since 2000?

[JDavis76]

Sorry. I noticed this afterwards.

 

My bad.

 

What is the earliest in a season that a part 3 has been started?

 

And as far as me wishing the sox's season is over already, I have mixed emotions on that. Part of me enjoys watching them inhabit the basement, part of me would like to see them miss the playoffs on the last day of the season and part of me would like to eliminate them in the playoffs.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Who has the most WS rings since 2000?

 

The last-place team in half the years the past decade?

[moonslav59]

What is the earliest in a season that a part 3 has been started?

.

 

I think I have usually waited until the trade deadline, unless we are out of it before then.

[Bellhorn04]

And as far as me wishing the sox's season is over already, I have mixed emotions on that. Part of me enjoys watching them inhabit the basement, part of me would like to see them miss the playoffs on the last day of the season and part of me would like to eliminate them in the playoffs.

 

Gotta love the Sox 3-0 run of eliminating the Yankees in the playoffs!

[Bellhorn04]

The last-place team in half the years the past decade?

 

Would you trade our last 20 years for another team's? It has to be the whole 20, no mixing and matching.

[moonslav59]

Gotta love the Sox 3-0 run of eliminating the Yankees in the playoffs!

 

All part of baseball's rich history.

[JDavis76]

Gotta love the Sox 3-0 run of eliminating the Yankees in the playoffs!

 

I'm sure you do.

 

Just like I love the countless times the Yanks have eliminated the sox.......

 

All part of the rich history of baseball.

[notin]

But how many big contracts can St. Louis give out? As many as Boston? At least the Redbirds are always all-in...

 

They are helped immensely by having a farm system that produces a steady stream of talented MLB players. Look at their lineup; only Goldschmidt and Arenado came from other organizations.

 

And they even replace from within. DeJong out; Edmond Sosa in.

[moonslav59]

I'm sure you do.

 

Just like I love the countless times the Yanks have eliminated the sox.......

 

All part of the rich history of baseball.

 

Countless? LOL.

 

It's the same number: 3.

 

2003

1999

1998

 

You crack me up!

[Bellhorn04]

Countless? LOL.

 

It's the same number: 3.

 

2003

1999

1998

 

You crack me up!

 

'Twas Cleveland who eliminated us in 1998.

[JDavis76]

Countless? LOL.

 

It's the same number: 3.

 

2003

1999

1998

 

You crack me up!

 

Umm, I simply said "eliminated", I didn't say from the playoffs.

 

You crack me up!

[moonslav59]

Umm, I simply said "eliminated", I didn't say from the playoffs.

 

You crack me up!

 

Um, you respond to a post about playoff elimination.

 

It's on you to clarify a change in the debate.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Would you trade our last 20 years for another team's? It has to be the whole 20, no mixing and matching.

 

Great question. I really enjoy following entire baseball seasons when my team is contending. Watching pro sports is all about entertainment, and as long as my team is in it, that's entertaining.

 

I'll never be a Yankee fan and say the season was a failure if we win but don't win it all, especially after making the playoffs. Only one club ever wins the last game of any season, and to be totally unsatisfied if that's not your team is unreasonable and elitist.

 

But last place seasons suck, and drain the fun out of being a fan. As a Red Sox fan, I wouldn't trade this century because of what I went through last century. However, it wouldn't be so bad to be a Cardinals fan; a winning record every single year since 2000, first or second place 15 times, in the postseason 15 times, won 2 WS, lost 2 WS... (ya, to Boston, but we owed them).

[moonslav59]

'Twas Cleveland who eliminated us in 1998.

 

Ahh, yes, and then the Yanks knocked out CLE.

 

So, 2 times. Countless. Funny.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

They are helped immensely by having a farm system that produces a steady stream of talented MLB players. Look at their lineup; only Goldschmidt and Arenado came from other organizations.

 

 

I don't know anything about the St. Loo org, but with such consistently high finishes (and thus, low draft picks), they must have a superior scouting system. Why didn't Henry rob them of their execs?

[moonslav59]

Great question. I really enjoy following entire baseball seasons when my team is contending. Watching pro sports is all about entertainment, and as long as my team is in it, that's entertaining.

 

I'll never be a Yankee fan and say the season was a failure if we win but don't win it all, especially after making the playoffs. Only one club ever wins the last game of any season, and to be totally unsatisfied if that's not your team is unreasonable and elitist.

 

But last place seasons suck, and drain the fun out of being a fan. As a Red Sox fan, I wouldn't trade this century because of what I went through last century. However, it wouldn't be so bad to be a Cardinals fan; a winning record every single year since 2000, first or second place 15 times, in the postseason 15 times, won 2 WS, lost 2 WS... (ya, to Boston, but we owed them).

 

We really did not finish in last place too often from the 70's through the 90's. I think 1992 might have been the only time.

 

It's funny, because I used to tell my fellow Sox fans, for decades, "I'll take 10 last place finishes for just one ring." Well, we may hit 10 last place finishes in my lifetime, but 4 rings is 4 times all I ever hoped for in all of my sports fandom.

 

We might even reach 10 last place finsihes from the 70's on, before we reach 10 rings, but to me, the 4 outweighs them all, and my guess is we reach 5 before I'm in the ground.

[JDavis76]

Um, you respond to a post about playoff elimination.

 

It's on you to clarify a change in the debate.

 

It was pretty clear that I didn't state "in the playoffs".

[Bellhorn04]

We really did not finish in last place too often from the 70's through the 90's. I think 1992 might have been the only time.

 

It's funny, because I used to tell my fellow Sox fans, for decades, "I'll take 10 last place finishes for just one ring." Well, we may hit 10 last place finishes in my lifetime, but 4 rings is 4 times all I ever hoped for in all of my sports fandom.

 

And the really great thing is, it's 4 rings in 4 World Series appearances - and a total of only 3 losses in those 4 Series! Awesome.

[Bellhorn04]

It was pretty clear that I didn't state "in the playoffs".

 

But it was easy to infer that based on what you were replying to.

 

I'd call it a wash.