Sale and Paxton delayed

[Hugh2]

As far as I can tell, if the Sox decline the option, they're on the hook for 6 million for 2022, and the tax hit for 2022 will be adjusted to that.

 

Also if the Sox decline, Paxton has his own option for 2023 for 4 million. Would he do that? Hard to say.

 

If the elbow is fine, all it takes is someone willing to pay 5 million or more for a one-year flyer. There's at least one GM that bites on that, maybe, maybe not. Maybe he wants to stay in Boston and feels he owes us a good season after effectively getting paid to rehab. Probably not, but it wouldn't be the worse thing for Boston if he does.

Edited August 29, 2022 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[jacksonianmarch]

If the elbow is fine, all it takes is someone willing to pay 5 million or more for a one-year flyer. There's at least one GM that bites on that, maybe, maybe not. Maybe he wants to stay in Boston and feels he owes us a good season after effectively getting paid to rehab. Probably not, but it wouldn't be the worse thing for Boston if he does.

 

I doubt that honestly. I think Paxton get a MiLB offer with a mild guarantee with another club. With Boston, he has a high payroll team that has a clear need in the rotation and the guarantee of at least a reasonable payday.

[Hugh2]

I doubt that honestly. I think Paxton get a MiLB offer with a mild guarantee with another club. With Boston, he has a high payroll team that has a clear need in the rotation and the guarantee of at least a reasonable payday.

 

IDK, pitching is tough to come by, and Paxton is well above average when healthy. If he had a setback with his elbow I'd be inclined to agree but he was hitting 95 off the mound and looks fully recovered from Tommy John. The setback seems to just be a lat strain. I'm not going to be surprised to see a club give him a cheap one-year deal. I also wouldn't be surprised if he got reinjured.

[Bellhorn04]

IDK, pitching is tough to come by, and Paxton is well above average when healthy. If he had a setback with his elbow I'd be inclined to agree but he was hitting 95 off the mound and looks fully recovered from Tommy John. The setback seems to just be a lat strain. I'm not going to be surprised to see a club give him a cheap one-year deal. I also wouldn't be surprised if he got reinjured.

 

They thought it might be a lat strain at first, but it's a tear.

[Hugh2]

They thought it might be a lat strain at first, but it's a tear.

 

A grade two lat tear takes 6-12 weeks to recover from. He could have a completely normal offseason and a normal 2023 season, which for him might entail a new injury.

[Bellhorn04]

A grade two lat tear takes 6-12 weeks to recover from. He could have a completely normal offseason and a normal 2023 season, which for him might entail a new injury.

 

Like you, I'd roll the dice. But I suffer from optimism LOL

[notin]

Like you, I'd roll the dice. But I suffer from optimism LOL

 

If the Sox get 100 IP from Paxton, it has to be considered a small victory. It certainly makes his deal more productive than Sale’s…

[Bellhorn04]

If the Sox get 100 IP from Paxton, it has to be considered a small victory. It certainly makes his deal more productive than Sale’s…

 

Gee thanks for that second sentence...

[Hugh2]

Like you, I'd roll the dice. But I suffer from optimism LOL

 

The way I look at it is, if you're going to go over the cap anyways, it's kind of a no-brainer. You just can't plan out next years rotation with him in the top 5. If he's healthy and gives you 100+ innings, that's a bonus.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

In hindsight, it was a complete failure for the front office to anticipate Sale and Paxton making viable contributions to the starting rotation.

 

Yes, the Sale extension was Dombrowski's goof, but many observers had foresight at the time of the signing, because of recent shoulder woes... remember, the elbow ish came next. But taking a chance on Paxton is on Bloom (and don't say that's all he could spend on, because of Sale's contract).

 

A lot of us also had foresight when Wacha and Hill came aboard -- not because they weren't good, but because they're weren't good bets not to break down, again, at some point.

 

It would seem investing in younger arms in their primes would give provide more durability... but how does that explain Jose Berrios' bad status since he joined Toronto? Did he have Covid? Is some longterm Covid effect a subtle reason for disappointing performances this season? Consider: Sale falling apart, ERod's summer, Xander/JD power failures, Kike's injury-prone down year, etc.

[moonslav59]

IMO, if Paxton is healthy, he's worth more than $13M. We already pais $6M for nothing, so it's basically paying him $6M for nothing or $16M x 2 for a dice roll.

[Hugh2]

In hindsight, it was a complete failure for the front office to anticipate Sale and Paxton making viable contributions to the starting rotation.

 

Yes, the Sale extension was Dombrowski's goof, but many observers had foresight at the time of the signing, because of recent shoulder woes... remember, the elbow ish came next. But taking a chance on Paxton is on Bloom (and don't say that's all he could spend on, because of Sale's contract).

 

A lot of us also had foresight when Wacha and Hill came aboard -- not because they weren't good, but because they're weren't good bets not to break down, again, at some point.

 

It would seem investing in younger arms in their primes would give provide more durability... but how does that explain Jose Berrios' bad status since he joined Toronto? Did he have Covid? Is some longterm Covid effect a subtle reason for disappointing performances this season? Consider: Sale falling apart, ERod's summer, Xander/JD power failures, Kike's injury-prone down year, etc.

 

I think the Paxton deal was mostly about next year from the beginning, with the hopes that he might have helped down the stretch. They knew they were getting very little from him this year best case scenario

[notin]

I think the Paxton deal was mostly about next year from the beginning, with the hopes that he might have helped down the stretch. They knew they were getting very little from him this year best case scenario

 

Absolutely.

 

Even if Paxton did pitch this year, he would have had a very limited pitch count for each start…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think the Paxton deal was mostly about next year from the beginning, with the hopes that he might have helped down the stretch. They knew they were getting very little from him this year best case scenario

 

Understood.

 

But we also understand how unacceptable that is -- budget-wise (a theme that defines this forum) -- to fans looking forward to 2022, and improving on the previous postseason.

[Hugh2]

Understood.

 

But we also understand how unacceptable that is -- budget-wise (a theme that defines this forum) -- to fans looking forward to 2022, and improving on the previous postseason.

 

Deals like this are always that way, you either completely lose or you completely win. If Paxton even goes 100 innings next year but pitches as good as he has he will be appreciated in Boston. Kind of a different situation, but look at the way the Wacha signing worked out.

[moonslav59]

Deals like this are always that way, you either completely lose or you completely win. If Paxton even goes 100 innings next year but pitches as good as he has he will be appreciated in Boston. Kind of a different situation, but look at the way the Wacha signing worked out.

 

Yes, but Wacha made $7M. Paxton will essentially make $32M/2, if we take the option.

[mvp 78]

Yes, but Wacha made $7M. Paxton will essentially make $32M/2, if we take the option.

 

2022 is a sunk cost. Who cares?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Deals like this are always that way, you either completely lose or you completely win. If Paxton even goes 100 innings next year but pitches as good as he has he will be appreciated in Boston. Kind of a different situation, but look at the way the Wacha signing worked out.

 

Wacha has been great, but was signed to take a regular turn in the rotation from Day Four of the season. They may have hoped Paxton would play the '21 Sale role -- join in August, and be a better value than anything they would have to spend prospects on to acquire at the deadline. These retread deals aren't always complete wins or losses; Richards didn't work out as a starter last year, but at least contributed a bit in relief down the stretch.

 

But next year's approach has to be different. The rotation needs to be completely rebuilt if the Sox are to regain respectability (and I'm not even using the "c" word). Start backwards from #5 with Pivetta, then Bello at #4, and hope he develops into at least a #3. It's doubtful Bloom will pay market value to keep Eovaldi or Wacha, so that means he has to make trades and/or promote Mata or another top arm (not Winckowski or Seabold, who look destined to be injury fill-ins).

 

Veteran guys trying to make comebacks simply cannot be counted on -- or sold to this fanbase in any way, shape or form. Anything we get from Sale or Paxton should be treated as a bonus -- forevermore.

[moonslav59]

2022 is a sunk cost. Who cares?

 

Even if you take away the $6M sunken cost, Paxton is $13M x 2 not $7M x 1

[Hugh2]

Yes, but Wacha made $7M. Paxton will essentially make $32M/2, if we take the option.

 

16 million per year? where did you get that number from

[Bellhorn04]

16 million per year? where did you get that number from

 

The team option is for 2 years/$26 million. Add the $6 million they paid this year and it's $32 million.

[mvp 78]

Even if you take away the $6M sunken cost, Paxton is $13M x 2 not $7M x 1

 

I don’t care about Paxton’s 2022 salary anymore. It’s irrelevant to next year’s team.

[moonslav59]

The team option is for 2 years/$26 million. Add the $6 million they paid this year and it's $32 million.

 

I said "essentially" $32M/2, because we paid $6M for nothing, this year.

 

Yes, 26+6=32

[moonslav59]

I don’t care about Paxton’s 2022 salary anymore. It’s irrelevant to next year’s team.

 

OK, but I can still mention things you are not interested in.

[mvp 78]

OK, but I can still mention things you are not interested in.

 

No.

[moonslav59]

No.

 

Do I need to private message you for permission, first?

 

[notin]

I said "essentially" $32M/2, because we paid $6M for nothing, this year.

 

Yes, 26+6=32

 

Isn’t is $32mill/3 for his AAV if they pick up the option?

 

So he counts as $10.67mill towards the tax calculation?

[moonslav59]

Isn’t is $32mill/3 for his AAV if they pick up the option?

 

So he counts as $10.67mill towards the tax calculation?

 

Actually, I think he counts as $10M for 2022 ($6M + $4M buyout of option) and $11M x 2 for the two accepted option years. ($26M- $4M counted on '22 divided by 2 year)

[Bellhorn04]

Actually, I think he counts as $10M for 2022 ($6M + $4M buyout of option) and $11M x 2 for the two accepted option years. ($26M- $4M counted on '22 divided by 2 year)

 

I've read in a couple of places that his tax hit for 2022 is 5.8 million.

 

I defy anyone to figure it out.

 

Edit:

 

Here's my guess.

 

The contract guarantees him $10 million. However, in order to collect the full $10 million, he has to opt into a second year, which would make it 2 years and $10 million for an AAV of $5 million. If he declines it's 1 year with an AAV of $6 million.

 

So should the AAV for 2022 be $5 million or $6 million? I assume that to get it to $5.8 million, there must be some weird little adjustment based on the option year being less than the first year.

Edited August 29, 2022 by Bellhorn04

[Nick]

I don’t care about Paxton’s 2022 salary anymore. It’s irrelevant to next year’s team.

 

So they are saying Sale is making $54M per year next two years.