Fire Bloom .

[notin]

Devers, Story, Kike and Dugo are locks for starting positions.

 

It's not a lock, but I'm 99% sure they view Casas as the FT 1Bman for 2023. I doubt we even add a back-up, since we already have Hosmer and Dalbec at min cost. We might not like the idea of not adding insurance, but Casas is the starter.

 

My guess is McGuire is, too, but they did mention adding someone there, so I'm not sure, there.

 

I hope they don't view Refsnyder as a FT RF option, but I'm fine starting the year with him as the 4th OF'er or maybe even platoon RF'er to start the season. (I do hope we add someone there.)

 

I'm more worried about our staff:

 

SP1 _____

SP2 _____ (Whitlock?)

SP3 Sale (big Q)

SP4 Bello

SP5 Pivetta

SP6 Crawford/Wink/Mata/Walter/Ward/Seabold/Murphy (Houck/Whitlock)

 

Closer _____

RP2A Houck

RP2B Whilock (SP?)

RP4 Schreiber

RP5 _____

RP6 Barnes

RP7 _____

RP8 Taylor (Health?)/Kelly/German/Brasier/McGee/Reed/Ort/Politi (Converted SP)

 

 

So you think there is a minimal to negligible chance of Verdugo and/or Devers being traded?

Edited November 6, 2022 by notin

[Bellhorn04]

If Hosmer does stay for a while, his salary will be a BIG part of it. I expect him to be on the trade block all winter.

 

And once all the other MLB teams pass, he might get a shot at DH.

 

Honestly, I do think his salary makes him a good fit for a deal with Milwaukee as they have their arbitration-crunch. For Adrian Houser? I’d do it…

 

We have a pretty big crunch too. We might even be Extra Crunchy.

[notin]

We have a pretty big crunch too. We might even be Extra Crunchy.

 

Our budget is at least potentially larger than Milwaukee’s…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm more worried about our staff:

 

Closer _____

RP2A Houck

RP2B Whilock (SP?)

RP4 Schreiber

RP5 _____

RP6 Barnes

RP7 _____

RP8 Taylor (Health?)/Kelly/German/Brasier/McGee/Reed/Ort/Politi (Converted SP)

 

 

The more I mull -- if the Sox were a true contender, then acquiring a true closer would be a priority. Building from the back forward isn't reverse engineering in modern hardball, as evidenced by the bullpens that won rings in Houston and Atlanta the past two years.

 

But in Kike Hernandez' world, being way better next season doesn't necessarily mean Boston has to find a specific reliever who can retire Yordan Alvarez in November.

 

The Sox have a few candidates coming off surgeries who might close. Meanwhile, one way back to respectability isn't to blow big bucks on a single guy like Diaz, but to spread investments into stockpiling good arms for legitimate depth. Let's start with Montero and Eflin from the World Series teams...

[notin]

The more I mull -- if the Sox were a true contender, then acquiring a true closer would be a priority. Building from the back forward isn't reverse engineering in modern hardball, as evidenced by the bullpens that won rings in Houston and Atlanta the past two years.

 

But in Kike Hernandez' world, being way better next season doesn't necessarily mean Boston has to find a specific reliever who can retire Yordan Alvarez in November.

 

The Sox have a few candidates coming off surgeries who might close. Meanwhile, one way back to respectability isn't to blow big bucks on a single guy like Diaz, but to spread investments into stockpiling good arms for legitimate depth. Let's start with Montero and Eflin from the World Series teams...

 

 

I think the closer just gets overvalued. Half this board just spent a week praising Dombrowski but how many know who the name of the Phillies closer that he signed? (Hint: his name rhymes with Corey Knebel.)

 

Houck was like 8 for 9 in save chances. If he recovers from his back surgery, did he really lose this job with that performance?

 

But pitchers like Montero and Eflin (and Fulmer. Don’t forget Fulmer.) would be great additions to strengthening this bullpen, regardless of their role…

[moonslav59]

So you think there is a minimal to negligible chance of Verdugo and/or Devers being traded?

 

Any team might trade just about anyone.

 

Right now, these two are sure bet FT'ers.

[notin]

Any team might trade just about anyone.

 

Right now, these two are sure bet FT'ers.

 

I don’t think the Sox will trade Story. And if you want to argue they might, rank Verdugo, Devers and Story in order if likelihood of being traded. Highest to lowest.

 

Verdugo and Devers are locks to start if either or both are still on the team. Really the likelihood of either or both being traded is the point…

[moonslav59]

I don’t think the Sox will trade Story. And if you want to argue they might, rank Verdugo, Devers and Story in order if likelihood of being traded. Highest to lowest.

 

Verdugo and Devers are locks to start if either or both are still on the team. Really the likelihood of either or both being traded is the point…

 

The odds that one gets traded is slight, so both are slotted as FT'ers. That's my point.

[notin]

The odds that one gets traded is slight, so both are slotted as FT'ers. That's my point.

 

And my point is a trade of either or both would surprise no one. It might also please no one, but it wouldn’t surprise them…

[moonslav59]

And my point is a trade of either or both would surprise no one. It might also please no one, but it wouldn’t surprise them…

 

No, it would not surprise me, but it doesn't mean I stop counting on them as our FT'ers, right now.

 

The odds are against either being traded, this winter.

[Bellhorn04]

And my point is a trade of either or both would surprise no one. It might also please no one, but it wouldn’t surprise them…

 

A trade of both Devers and Verdugo this offseason would definitely surprise me, actually...

[moonslav59]

A trade of both Devers and Verdugo this offseason would definitely surprise me, actually...

 

The Beni & Renfroe trades surprised me. Trading Devers alone would surprise me- both Devers & Dugo, even more.

[mvp 78]

I come and go, it’s going to get interesting after the series players have three days to opt out or declare free agency and teams five days to make qualifying offer, I think Bogaerts opts out, there are 4 or 5 high quality short stop free agents this year so at least that many teams will be looking for a short stop including the Dodgers

 

99.5% he opts out. If he doesn't, it's because he fails to do the paperwork in time.

[mvp 78]

The Sox did win 78 games and the stays made the postseason with only 86 wins. So the climb to the postseason shouldn’t be too daunting.

 

But then the roster is in real flux right now. Really outside of 2b, how confident are you to name the starter at any position?

 

1B Casas

2B Story

SS ?

3B ? (Devers could be traded)

OF ? (Kiké could move to SS, Verdugo could be traded)

C ? (rumored acquisition)

[mvp 78]

I’m just talking about absolute locks as starters (assuming no one is injured).

 

C - McGuire is the current front runner, but would you really be surprised if the Sox brought in someone to start over him? He’s defensively above average, but his offense in Boston is definitely not sustainable.

 

1b - Casas is the front runner, too. But Hosmer is still here for now. Either one might be the DH.

 

2b - Story until he gets hurt

 

3b - We all hope it’s Devers, but a lot depends on his contract situation. He might get extended, traded, or just play out his last year.

 

SS - Bogaerts’ opting out is extremely likely. Free agent? Will it be a big name like Correa or a stopgap like Segura? Or will Kike move in and hold it down for a year?

 

LF - Verdugo for now, but apparently the Sox were not too happy with his attempts to bulk up and the effect it has on his play offensively and defensively.

 

CF - Most likely Kike. Unless he plays somewhere else, like SS.

 

RF - No front runners. I’m sticking to my prediction of Gallo. But nothing has obviously happened yet.

 

DH - Please not Hosmer. The position is designated hitter, not designated mediocrity.

 

Hosmer is getting worse at 1b as he ages and he wasn't exactly great before. Casas is going to be run out at 1b as much as possible.

[mvp 78]

Hosmer had an OPS+ of 113 with San Diego this year. Platoon him with Dalbec.

 

Reasoning: a team with our payroll issues almost has to make use of a guy with some ability that we only have to pay minimum wage.

 

Their what?

[mvp 78]

So you think there is a minimal to negligible chance of Verdugo and/or Devers being traded?

 

I'd trade Verdugo for sure. I'd trade Devers if they think they can't re-sign him.

[mvp 78]

We have a pretty big crunch too. We might even be Extra Crunchy.

 

No.

[moonslav59]

Their what?

 

Their fixed winter spending budget and too many slots to fill.

[mvp 78]

Their fixed winter spending budget and too many slots to fill.

 

SS - gone

C - gone, but have McGuire

DH - gone, but don't have to spend

RF - same hole as last year

SP - Eovaldi, Wacha and Hill are gone but with the injuries it's just 2 guys to fill and they already have Paxton and Sale that didn't contribute at all in 2022

[moonslav59]

SS - gone

C - gone, but have McGuire

DH - gone, but don't have to spend

RF - same hole as last year

SP - Eovaldi, Wacha and Hill are gone but with the injuries it's just 2 guys to fill and they already have Paxton and Sale that didn't contribute at all in 2022

 

$65-70M to spend:

 

SS

RF

SP1

RP1

RP4

SP/RP (depending on where Whitlock is slotted)

 

At minimum, 5 slots to fill. This is assuming a likely decline at Catcher and DH and maybe a SP'er slot we fill with someone other than Bello.

 

Yes, "payroll issues."

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

$65-70M to spend:

 

SS

RF

SP1

RP1

RP4

SP/RP (depending on where Whitlock is slotted)

 

At minimum, 5 slots to fill.

 

Yes, "payroll issues."

 

Without listing every salary of the 40-man, who besides Sale is due a ton of money on the '23 Red Sox? Is there any dead money still on the books (Price, Pedroia, Manny, Bobby Bonilla etc)?

[notin]

Hosmer is getting worse at 1b as he ages and he wasn't exactly great before. Casas is going to be run out at 1b as much as possible.

 

 

I do think 1b and DH are probably settled. It just comes down to who gets penciled in where, which will probably change a few times for the three. Unless Hosmer gets traded or DFAd and the Sox find an actual hitter…

[moonslav59]

Without listing every salary of the 40-man, who besides Sale is due a ton of money on the '23 Red Sox? Is there any dead money still on the books (Price, Pedroia, Manny, Bobby Bonilla etc)?

 

Maybe Barnes, but he's not getting a lot and shows some promise for 2023.

 

If we reset, we'll have about $67M to spend, which seems like a reasonable amount to find a SS, RF, SP, RP and P. That's about $13M per slot, not counting any trades we could make.

 

I'm not saying it can't be done, but I'd feel a lot better, if we had $85-100M on the winter spending budget.

 

A lot depends on whether we are ready to trade a top prospect or two to get real in 2023. I'm torn on that idea, but if we get a guy with many years of team control, or we lock him up at a reasonable cost, now is as good a time as any.

[moonslav59]

I do think 1b and DH are probably settled. It just comes down to who gets penciled in where, which will probably change a few times for the three. Unless Hosmer gets traded or DFAd and the Sox find an actual hitter…

 

Agreed. Spending on 1B/DH just dilutes the amount we can spend on higher need areas.

 

It's also easier to find a cheap 1B/DH at the deadline, if needed.

[mvp 78]

$65-70M to spend:

 

SS

RF

SP1

RP1

RP4

SP/RP (depending on where Whitlock is slotted)

 

At minimum, 5 slots to fill. This is assuming a likely decline at Catcher and DH and maybe a SP'er slot we fill with someone other than Bello.

 

Yes, "payroll issues."

 

Where are you getting that amount from?

 

They had about $115M leave via trade/FA/projected opt outs since last summer.

 

I've seen their current payroll and benefits at 165M with Xander. Take Xander out and that's 145M. Lux tax of 233 would mean there's 90M to spend.

[mvp 78]

Without listing every salary of the 40-man, who besides Sale is due a ton of money on the '23 Red Sox? Is there any dead money still on the books (Price, Pedroia, Manny, Bobby Bonilla etc)?

 

Manny and Pedroia are both on for a few more years totaling about 4.5M per annum.

[mvp 78]

I do think 1b and DH are probably settled. It just comes down to who gets penciled in where, which will probably change a few times for the three. Unless Hosmer gets traded or DFAd and the Sox find an actual hitter…

 

Casas is the 1b. DH is not settled.

[mvp 78]

Where are you getting that amount from?

 

They had about $115M leave via trade/FA/projected opt outs since last summer.

 

I've seen their current payroll and benefits at 165M with Xander. Take Xander out and that's 145M. Lux tax of 233 would mean there's 90M to spend.

 

^ This amount also includes keeping Paxton. If they dump Paxton, they'd have 100M+ to spend which is the amount that moon would be comfortable with having to spend.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Manny and Pedroia are both on for a few more years totaling about 4.5M per annum.

 

Not bad: a little more than Bloom signed Diekman for... or around what he couldn't stomach to pay Benintendi that brought us the Franchy Error.