Fire Bloom .

[Bellhorn04]

Devers isn't Mookie, who turned down $300M in Boston; he's not the best defensive player at his position nor a good baserunner.

 

But Devers, 26, is better than Anthony Rendon, the Angel third baseman who will be paid $38,571,428 for each of the next four years in his age 33-36 seasons.

 

Can anyone fault Devers or his agents for looking at $38M AAV as the top-of-the-industry market value for third basemen? Is it that ludicrous for Devers to expect a minimum of $30M AAV or that someone will offer him that?

 

More telling: if the Boston Red Sox aren't willing to pay market value for another young star player about to enter his prime -- then will they ever again?!?!

 

Devers is much better than Rendon is NOW.

 

But not better than Rendon was when he signed his contract. Rendon had multiple seasons of around 6 WAR.

 

Now Rendon is just another cautionary tale.

[Bellhorn04]

Will Devers settle for a 7 year deal like Rendon did?

 

Are you suggesting a 7 year $266mill contract? Or a 10 year $380mill contract?

 

And are we defining fair market value as “what the player wants”?

 

There's no such thing as fair market value in an irrational market like baseball.

 

Seager got 325 mill. Correa got 105 mill.

 

Irrational.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

There's no such thing as fair market value in an irrational market like baseball.

 

Seager got 325 mill. Correa got 105 mill.

 

Irrational.

 

Going back to your earlier comments on the Rangers -- these contract ceilings are not established by so-called big markets or small markets, but really just big or small spenders: owners willing to spend on star players.

 

Sure, someone can probably now post population/attendance stats that show Arlington is right up there with NY, Chicago and LA... but then why doesn't MLB.com lead every day with Rangers stories, and national networks broadcast Texas games in primetime, and assign special Seager close-up cameras that follow all his grins and grimaces.

[moonslav59]

Every so often, usually at least once a winter, some GM grossly overpays a player and others want to use that as the benchmark for what they are worth.

 

It doesn't mean that fully happens.

 

I doubt anyone offers Devers more than $250M/10, but I would not blame him for waiting to see if someone offers that or more.

 

I wonder, if he'd take that right now, if the Sox offered it.

[Bellhorn04]

Going back to your earlier comments on the Rangers -- these contract ceilings are not established by so-called big markets or small markets, but really just big or small spenders: owners willing to spend on star players.

 

Look what happened with the Rangers. They paid Seager and Semien $500 million, went 68-94 and fired their GM and manager.

[Bellhorn04]

Every so often, usually at least once a winter, some GM grossly overpays a player and others want to use that as the benchmark for what they are worth.

 

It doesn't mean that fully happens.

 

I doubt anyone offers Devers more than $250M/10, but I would not blame him for waiting to see if someone offers that or more.

 

I wonder, if he'd take that right now, if the Sox offered it.

 

And that $250 mill would be more than double what Bogey got. And yet we think it might be light!

 

Things have gotten so crazy that we're rounding off to the nearest $50 million in our guesses...

[moonslav59]

And that $250 mill would be more than double what Bogey got. And yet we think it might be light!

 

Things have gotten so crazy that we're rounding off to the nearest $50 million in our guesses...

 

Devers is younger, so the length of the deal is the main reason it's twice what Bogey got, but yes- CRAZY!

 

It is what it is, so if we ever want to sign one of the best FAs, at any point, we'll have to take the plunge or go light(er.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Devers is younger, so the length of the deal is the main reason it's twice what Bogey got, but yes- CRAZY!

 

It is what it is, so if we ever want to sign one of the best FAs, at any point, we'll have to take the plunge or go light(er.)

 

Historically in the free agent era, every franchise that won a World Series signed a prime free agent that helped get them over the top.

 

And that doesn't even include players traded for, who were only dealt because they were about to become free -- like Pedro and Schilling.

[notin]

Historically in the free agent era, every franchise that won a World Series signed a prime free agent that helped get them over the top.

 

And that doesn't even include players traded for, who were only dealt because they were about to become free -- like Pedro and Schilling.

 

The 1996-2000 Yankees?

[notin]

So say it comes down to this:

 

Devers wants 10 years $350mill

 

Judge wants 7 years $260mill

 

 

Who do you sign?

[mvp 78]

The 1996-2000 Yankees?

 

Tino

Boggs

O'Neill

The entire 96 rotation except for Pettitte

Wetteland

Wells

El Duque

Nelson

Strawberry

Sierra

[mvp 78]

So say it comes down to this:

 

Devers wants 10 years $350mill

 

Judge wants 7 years $260mill

 

 

Who do you sign?

 

Judge

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The 1996-2000 Yankees?

 

On the greatest New York team in the history of the Jeter-Mo dynasty: perfect game free agent signees David Wells and David Cone went 6-0 in the 1998 postseason.

[notin]

Devers is much better than Rendon is NOW.

 

But not better than Rendon was when he signed his contract. Rendon had multiple seasons of around 6 WAR.

 

Now Rendon is just another cautionary tale.

 

Rendon was older than Devers when he signed, but at age 26 his 12 career fWAR did trail Devers at that age. Over the next 3 years, Rendon would be worth nearly 19 fWAR. Devers certainly could do that, but will he?

[notin]

On the greatest New York team in the history of the Jeter-Mo dynasty: perfect game free agent signees David Wells and David Cone went 6-0 in the 1998 postseason.

 

The definition of “prime free agent” will be taken as loosely as possible, I see.

 

The reality is the Yankees started going heavy into actual prime free agents like Mike Mussina and Jason Giambi, and that was when they STOPPED winning titles…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

So say it comes down to this:

 

Devers wants 10 years $350mill

 

Judge wants 7 years $260mill

 

 

Who do you sign?

 

I want nothing to do with Judge, but would be shocked if $350M for anyone for any years would "make sense" to Chaim Bloom.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The definition of “prime free agent” will be taken as loosely as possible, I see.

 

The reality is the Yankees started going heavy into actual prime free agents like Mike Mussina and Jason Giambi, and that was when they STOPPED winning titles…

 

That must be your reality. Mine is that the Yankees never won in the free agent era until they signed three-time world champion free agents Catfish Hunter and Reggie Jackson. Then Steinbrenner kept stock-piling free agent pitchers -- because he could... and because he wanted to.

[notin]

That must be your reality. Mine is that the Yankees never won in the free agent era until they signed three-time world champion free agents Catfish Hunter and Reggie Jackson. Then Steinbrenner kept stock-piling free agent pitchers -- because he could... and because he wanted to.

 

And then of course there is the perennial rebuttal to every “all World Series champions” sweeping generalizations - the 2015 Royals.

 

Unless of course Edinson Volquez qualifies as a prime free agent somehow…

[notin]

I want nothing to do with Judge, but would be shocked if $350M for anyone for any years would "make sense" to Chaim Bloom.

 

Not even remotely part of the question…

[notin]

Judge

 

The President of the Devers for President Club chooses Judge?

 

Ok if those parameters are too far apart, when does it get closer?

 

Devers - 10years $320mill

 

Judge 8 years $275mmill

 

??

[mvp 78]

The President of the Devers for President Club chooses Judge?

 

Ok if those parameters are too far apart, when does it get closer?

 

Devers - 10years $320mill

 

Judge 8 years $275mmill

 

??

 

Devers age 25:

140 wRC+, 4.9 fWAR

 

Judge age 25:

174 wRC+, 8.7 fWAR

 

Judge is a better hitter. He k's a lot, but has a better OBP than Devers due to his bb rate. Judge is a better fielder. While some consider Judge a health risk, Devers did miss some time this season with an issue and we don't know how his body will continue to age.

 

In this scenario, I still take Judge as it may even be a better contract as it reduces the AAV.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And then of course there is the perennial rebuttal to every “all World Series champions” sweeping generalizations - the 2015 Royals.

 

Unless of course Edinson Volquez qualifies as a prime free agent somehow…

 

Not even remotely quoting me accurately. Here is what I actually posted: "every franchise that won a World Series"...

 

Let me know when you're ready for your daily pick-apart-someone-else's-post mood, and I'll send you a list.

[moonslav59]

Historically in the free agent era, every franchise that won a World Series signed a prime free agent that helped get them over the top.

 

And that doesn't even include players traded for, who were only dealt because they were about to become free -- like Pedro and Schilling.

 

The 2015 Kansas City Royals signed who?

 

Yes, they traded for Cueto, mid season, but no big signings.

 

I'm not sure, but I think the 2008 Phillies didn't have any big FA signings. The 2005 CWS?

[notin]

Not even remotely quoting me accurately. Here is what I actually posted: "every franchise that won a World Series"...

 

Let me know when you're ready for your daily pick-apart-someone-else's-post mood, and I'll send you a list.

 

The 2015 Royals didn’t win a World Series?

[Bellhorn04]

That must be your reality. Mine is that the Yankees never won in the free agent era until they signed three-time world champion free agents Catfish Hunter and Reggie Jackson.

 

Catfish and Reggie pretty much launched the free agent era, didn't they?

[moonslav59]

Not even remotely quoting me accurately. Here is what I actually posted: "every franchise that won a World Series"...

 

Let me know when you're ready for your daily pick-apart-someone-else's-post mood, and I'll send you a list.

 

The 2015 Royals won a WS without a big FA.

[Bellhorn04]

The 2015 Royals won a WS without a big FA.

 

I think they're more the exception than the rule.

 

We've discussed how all 4 of the Red Sox title teams had big FA's.

[moonslav59]

I think they're more the exception than the rule.

 

We've discussed how all 4 of the Red Sox title teams had big FA's.

 

Yes, it is very rare, but GG said "every franchise...."

[moonslav59]

Devers age 25:

140 wRC+, 4.9 fWAR

 

Judge age 25:

174 wRC+, 8.7 fWAR

 

Judge is a better hitter. He k's a lot, but has a better OBP than Devers due to his bb rate. Judge is a better fielder. While some consider Judge a health risk, Devers did miss some time this season with an issue and we don't know how his body will continue to age.

 

In this scenario, I still take Judge as it may even be a better contract as it reduces the AAV.

 

How about...

 

$285M/10 Devers

 

$248M/8 Judge

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The 2015 Kansas City Royals signed who?

 

Yes, they traded for Cueto, mid season, but no big signings.

 

I'm not sure, but I think the 2008 Phillies didn't have any big FA signings. The 2005 CWS?

 

For the Philadelphia franchise, the '80 world champs signed Pete Rose, who Mike Schmidt said made the difference in Philly finally winning a ring. Rose hit .326 that postseason. The '05 ChiSox signed Jermaine Dye, who was World Series MVP. For the Kansas City franchise, the '85 world champs signed Dan Quisenberry as an undrafted free agent. They didn't take him from a different team, but any club could have presumably signed Quiz for the right price. Five times in six years he finished in the top five for the Cy Young and received AL MVP votes.