Fire Bloom .

[Bellhorn04]

I never liked Porcello and was astounded when he got the Cy Young. He had a complete repertoire, but it wasn't that good.

 

His cumulative WAR over 12 seasons was 18.8, which is an average of 1.5. And his cumulative salary was $127M, so he was paid $6.75 M per 1 WAR of performance. His 2018 WAR was 2.5 with 33 starts, so whoever said there is value in taking the ball every 5th game has a point. He contributed to the Sox best season ever.

 

His FanGraphs WAR is a lot higher. Thereby hangs a tale.

[iortiz]

Disagree.

 

1 to 6 is the FG's scale regardless the names they give to each level. Average could be something around 3.

 

4 out of those 5 years were not even average. Kind of the point. He sucked.

[iortiz]

His FanGraphs WAR is a lot higher. Thereby hangs a tale.

 

Still it ain't good.

[oldtimer]

If there are 5 starters per team (for argumentative purproses, injuries happen and all that) for 30 teams, then ideally out of 150 guys the top 30 are your #1's your 31-60 are your #2's and 61-90 are your #3's so on and so forth.

 

This might be a semantics battle, but I say an ACE is your top pitcher, so hypothetically your top 30 pitchers in baseball are an ACE. Now, maybe there's a difference between the top 5 and top 25-30 that's fine. But I believe that's a fair argument because what's average is completely reliant upon what everyone else is doing. If runs per game go up and the average ERA is 6.00 then all of a sudden a guy with a 4.00 ERA is an ACE. It's all relative to what everyone else is doing.

 

Of course, AS fangraphs has said, league ERA changes from year to year, and I'm just looking at ERA leaders from this year. Maybe next year there are 30 guys in that group. IDK.

My idea of a #1 starter is a guy who can be relied on to make at least 25 starts per year and gives a quality effort of 5 or more innings in 80% of those. Wacha had the quality starts but the total number was low. Sale's inability to provide any reasonable number of innings was a big reason for the Sox issues and Paxton was a total non-entity. More guys like Wacha and less like Sale.

[Bellhorn04]

1 to 6 is the FG's scale regardless the names they give to each level. Average could be something around 3.

 

4 out of those 5 years were not even average. Kind of the point. He sucked.

 

No, a 3 WAR is not average. Average is 2.

 

It's spelled out right here:

 

https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Porcello was an 'innings eater.' He also was pretty good with the bat.

[iortiz]

No, a 3 WAR is not average. Average is 2.

 

It's spelled out right here:

 

https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/

Thing is that you are not sorting levels as FG does.

 

For FG most pitchers are what they call role and scrub players. Porcello is in that category in most of his tenure in Boston.

 

Only a few (if you consider the universe of SPs) are what they call good or above. Porcello had only one year above good in Boston. One. It is a bad tenure. I think most of the fans expected at least, 3 or 4 years of what FG calls you a "Good" player. It didn't happened, the rest is history.

Edited September 1, 2022 by iortiz

[iortiz]

Porcello was an 'innings eater.' He also was pretty good with the bat.

 

The 7-run rule was always in effect lol

[Hugh2]

2 WAR is also role player lol

 

Porcello sucked man.

 

If 2 WAR is just a role player what does that Make Arroyo and Whitlock????

[Bellhorn04]

Thing is that you are not sorting levels as FG does.

 

For FG most pitchers are what they call role and scrub players. Porcello is in that category in most of his tenure in Boston.

 

Only a few (if you consider the universe of SPs) are what they call good or above. Porcello had only one year above good in Boston. One. It is a bad tenure. I think most of the fans expected at least, 3 or 4 years of what FG calls you a "Good" player. It didn't happened, the rest is history.

 

The article states "Average starting pitchers are worth around 2 WAR."

 

Not sure how much clearer it can be.

[Bellhorn04]

If 2 WAR is just a role player what does that Make Arroyo and Whitlock????

 

2 WAR is average for full-time position players and starting pitchers.

 

You have to adjust for part-time players and relievers.

[moonslav59]

The article states "Average starting pitchers are worth around 2 WAR."

 

Not sure how much clearer it can be.

 

I can understand saying $20M for average is bad, so if the wording was "The contract was below average or bad," I'd be okay with that position, but Porcello was not bad from 2017-2020. He was average or placed in the 31st to 60yh range in a lot of major categories, which makes him similar to most team's #2 SP'er. In other categories, he was a number 3.

 

He would have been almost every team's best 3rd or 4th starter, so calling him a #5 is not fair. Then, being 10th in IP'd is a very helpful thing. He saved the pen, which were sketchy, then, too. He kept us from needing to start our 7th, 8th or 9th starters.

 

A look at our #6,7,8+ SP'ers:

 

2017:

4.88 Fister

4.33 Johnson

8.25 Wright

2.92 Velazquez

12.96 K Kendrick

 

2018:

4.17 Johnson

6.08 Pom Pom

3.18 Velazquez

2.68 Wright

 

2019:

5.43 Velazquez

6.02 Johnson

6.20 Cashner

7.36 Chacin

5.09 Weber

5.81 Josh Smith

 

2020:

8.16 Godley

4.80 Mazza

4.40 Weber

5.61 Brewer

15.55 Hart

7.71 Kickham

Edited September 1, 2022 by moonslav59

[Hugh2]

2 WAR is average for full-time position players and starting pitchers.

 

You have to adjust for part-time players and relievers.

 

Arroyo has .7 even if his playing time double and you assumed the same level of production that puts him on a path to finish the season around 2 WAR, maybe a little under. 2 WAR is an average to a better player. Not all-star, but not bad. Definitely a step above role player.

[moonslav59]

Arroyo has .7 even if his playing time double and you assumed the same level of production that puts him on a path to finish the season around 2 WAR, maybe a little under. 2 WAR is an average to a better player. Not all-star, but not bad. Definitely a step above role player.

 

Do they have a WAR per PA stat?

[Hugh2]

Do they have a WAR per PA stat?

 

IDK, but I'm sure you can figure out, Just take League WAR and League PAs.

[iortiz]

If 2 WAR is just a role player what does that Make Arroyo and Whitlock????

 

 

 

RPs by definition are role players BUT RPs could have their own chart since fWAR takes in consideration (and a lot) IPs.

 

The other day in other post I adjusted the chart. If I recall well the ceiling for RPs was at 3 WAR, and from there you can readjust it.

[iortiz]

2 WAR is average for full-time position players and starting pitchers.

 

You have to adjust for part-time players and relievers.

 

Porcello was expected to perform at 3+ fWAR in a regular basis in Boston. He didn’t most of his tenure, so yes, he sucked and the contract didn’t pan out well. That’s the point.

 

Again, Porcello had a bad tenure in Boston uniform.

[moonslav59]

Porcello was expected to perform at 3+ fWAR in a regular basis in Boston. He didn’t most of his tenure, so yes, he sucked and the contract didn’t pan out well. That’s the point.

 

Again, Porcello had a bad tenure in Boston uniform.

 

I agree, he failed to meet expectations, overall. He did not earn $20M/yr.

 

But, I would not say HE was bad.

[Bellhorn04]

Porcello was expected to perform at 3+ fWAR in a regular basis in Boston. He didn’t most of his tenure, so yes, he sucked and the contract didn’t pan out well. That’s the point.

 

Again, Porcello had a bad tenure in Boston uniform.

 

If you said mediocre I'd agree. But sucked and horrible is simply wrong. There have been much worse busts.

[moonslav59]

If you said mediocre I'd agree. But sucked and horrible is simply wrong. There have been much worse busts.

 

He also singled out Porcello on a list that included Lackey & Nate who had similar or worse numbers than Porcello.

[Hugh2]

He also singled out Porcello on a list that included Lackey & Nate who had similar or worse numbers than Porcello.

 

Lackey was worth every penny for that 2013 season and that game 6 performance.

[Hugh2]

And then they traded him for Joe Kelly, who was lights out in the 2018 world series. lol

[moonslav59]

Lackey was worth every penny for that 2013 season and that game 6 performance.

 

$82M for 1 game, wow!

 

Porcello won the Cy Young and led us to a first place finish, that year.

 

He also pitched very well in that epic game 3 of the '18 WS, going 4.2 allowing just 1 run (3H + 1BB)- the game we lost in extra innings.

 

Also, in the ALDS, after pitching very well in relief in game 1's win, he won game 4 going 5 IP allowing 1 run (4H + 0BB). It's not like he wilted in the clutch.

[iortiz]

If you said mediocre I'd agree. But sucked and horrible is simply wrong. There have been much worse busts.

Well he was horrible in 2 years, bad in one, mediocre in 1 and great in 1.

 

Put it in my mixer and it is a bad tenure all-in-all.

[moonslav59]

4 Year Deals: ERA+ / IP

 

105/792 Porcello

108/398 Nate

94/701 Lackey

[moonslav59]

Well he was horrible in 2 years, bad in one, mediocre in 1 and great in 1.

 

Put it in my mixer and it is a bad tenure all-in-all.

 

So, Sale's deal was a great one due to what he did before the contract?

[moonslav59]

Well he was horrible in 2 years, bad in one, mediocre in 1 and great in 1.

 

Put it in my mixer and it is a bad tenure all-in-all.

 

Under the 4 year deal:

 

1 Great

1 Good

1 OKay

1 Bad

[cp176]

So, Sale's deal was a great one due to what he did before the contract?

 

No question in my mind! He'll be back.

[moonslav59]

No question in my mind! He'll be back.

 

I agree. He has too much grit and determination to be held back.

[iortiz]

Under the 4 year deal:

 

1 Great

1 Good

1 OKay

1 Bad

 

Under that period 2 bad (5.52 and 4.62), 1 mediocre (4.28) and one great (3.15)

 

I guess our definitions of good are bad are not the same lol