2022 Bullpen Thread

[Nick]

Well, a very low BA and OPS Against is one reason.

 

I was being sarcastic. He looks fine to me. I'm wondering why the parent club has avoided him?

[Bellhorn04]

I was being sarcastic. He looks fine to me. I'm wondering why the parent club has avoided him?

 

He's 30 years old and has pitched 2 major league innings. Evidently his stuff just hasn't been that good.

 

But maybe he will be another "Late Bloomer".

[mvp 78]

Thank you with stats.....that's what my eyes tell me. He can't be trusted. No way I bet my life on him. I would rather bet with Schreiber.

 

Well, yeah.

[Nick]

He's 30 years old and has pitched 2 major league innings. Evidently his stuff just hasn't been that good.

 

But maybe he will be another "Late Bloomer".

 

Well, my eye test results are in.

 

Ort the 30 year old looks better than Dieckman.

[moonslav59]

Well, my eye test results are in.

 

Ort the 30 year old looks better than Dieckman.

 

A blind man reading braille can see the light of day on Diekman.

[Old Red]

A blind man reading braille can see the light of day on Diekman.

 

Are you bashing Bloom? A 2 yr contract even.

[Nick]

Diekman had his team-leading 10th meltdown of the season.

 

Well that's even more than I've had on this board. He wins.

[Nick]

Are you bashing Bloom? A 2 yr contract even.

 

Very good sir.

[Bellhorn04]

The Diekman signing was not Chaim's finest moment.

[Old Red]

The Diekman signing was not Chaim's finest moment.

 

And for 2 years. Double wow!

[Bellhorn04]

And for 2 years. Double wow!

 

Well, 8 million isn't going to kill the Red Sox. May just have to eat the rest.

[mvp 78]

Well, 8 million isn't going to kill the Red Sox. May just have to eat the rest.

 

Easier to DFA from behind the keyboard, but yeah... He's been horrible.

[Kimmi]

As much as some dislike Brasier, Sawamura and others, I just don't see us DFA'ing anyone, except maye Diekman, but even he has a 2 year deal, so I'm not sure Bloom cuts ties. Barnes is in a similar boat. If we can keep him on the IL through the roster crunch, it won't be an issue, but I seriously doubt we DFA him. Perhaps we can trade him for a similar salary, but I can't see a fit/match anywhere. Davis is out of options. Brasier has an option, so maybe he could be demoted, despite his recent decency.

 

I could see us trade 1-2 RP'ers (maybe Brasier and or Sawamura) for faraway prospects to make room for returning pitchers and future acquisitions for the pen.

 

8 man pen:

 

No options

Strahm

Barnes

Davis

Diekman

 

Options

Houck

Whitlock

Schreiber

Brasier

Sawamura

Taylor

Danish (IL)

Crawford, Seabold, Wink, Bello

Ort, Valdez

 

For the most part, our RP'ers without options are worse than those with options.

 

Something has to give, because there isn't room for our best 8. If we add 1-2 more arms, several good pitchers will be demoted or traded.

 

 

Bloom seems to really like having roster flexibility. The more arms you have available, the better.

 

I'm not down on this pen like most people are. I'm guessing Bloom will add one under the radar reliever and be done with the pen. Getting Whitlock back is about as good a trade deadline pick up as you can get.

[Kimmi]

Sure, bury your head in those advanced stats and ignore that in the real world he helped win a big game against the Yankees.

 

I'm with you on Sawamura. I'm not getting all the hate. Even if he is just a low leverage guy, every pen needs some of those guys.

[Bellhorn04]

Bloom seems to really like having roster flexibility. The more arms you have available, the better.

 

I'm not down on this pen like most people are. I'm guessing Bloom will add one under the radar reliever and be done with the pen. Getting Whitlock back is about as good a trade deadline pick up as you can get.

 

The pen has the potential to be good by the end of the season, with additions like Schreiber and now Whitlock.

 

At the same time, so far it has ranged between adequate and awful.

[Kimmi]

The Diekman signing was not Chaim's finest moment.

 

No, it wasn't. I'm not sure if Bloom will cut ties with him though.

[Kimmi]

The pen has the potential to be good by the end of the season, with additions like Schreiber and now Whitlock.

 

At the same time, so far it has ranged between adequate and awful.

 

I would disagree with the "adequate to awful" rating.

 

I think it has ranged between good and below average. There have been some terrible performances thrown in (and there have been some great performances thrown in), but I would not rate them, in general, as awful any more than I would rate them as being great.

[Bellhorn04]

I would disagree with the "adequate to awful" rating.

 

I think it has ranged between good and below average. There have been some terrible performances thrown in (and there have been some great performances thrown in), but I would not rate them, in general, as awful any more than I would rate them as being great.

 

I guess I would need to see some meaningful statistical comparisons to other bullpens to really judge.

 

The "Team Relief Pitching" stats on B-R make our pen look terrible, but they're pretty wonky-looking stats.

[moonslav59]

No, it wasn't. I'm not sure if Bloom will cut ties with him though.

 

We have too many ML bubble RPers to fill the 8 slots for the pen. At some point, Bloom will have to go with quality over the desire to keep as much quantity as possible. The returning IL pitchers will force his hand, and the return of Barnes might be the one that forces Bloom’s hand.

 

I think Diekman goes. Unless someone else gets hurt we can’t have 3 of the 8 slots filled with Barnes, Davis and Diekman- all with no options. We already have Sawamura for low leverage situations.

[mvp 78]

I guess I would need to see some meaningful statistical comparisons to other bullpens to really judge.

 

The "Team Relief Pitching" stats on B-R make our pen look terrible, but they're pretty wonky-looking stats.

 

What do you mean by "wonky?"

[Bellhorn04]

What do you mean by "wonky?"

 

Well, starting with our "Save Percentage" which shows as 50%, tied for worst in MLB with the Rays.

[mvp 78]

Well, starting with our "Save Percentage" which shows as 50%, tied for worst in MLB with the Rays.

 

Save Percentage is a bad stat to begin with.

[Bellhorn04]

Save Percentage is a bad stat to begin with.

 

I'm not sure where the good stats for relievers are, though. Shutdown/Meltdown?

[mvp 78]

I'm not sure where the good stats for relievers are, though. Shutdown/Meltdown?

 

I'm not even sure how those are even calculated TBH.

[mvp 78]

I'm not even sure how those are even calculated TBH.

 

Don't worry everyone, it's very simple. I'm sure Old Red and others will find it very clear...

 

Calculation:

 

To determine if a pitcher has earned a Shutdown or Meltdown, you simply need to check their Win Probability Added (WPA) for the game in question. WPA is a measure of how much the team’s Win Expectancy changed while a given pitcher was on the mound. If you enter a game with a WE of 84% and exit the game with a WE of 94%, the pitcher is credited with +0.10 WPA. If you enter with a WE of 64% and leave with a WE of 46%, the pitcher earns -0.18 WPA.

 

In order to delineate between outings of consequence and those without much, relievers only earn Shutdowns if they register a WPA of +0.06 or greater in a given game. The same is true on the negative side of the ledger, earning a Meltdown if they produce a -0.06 WPA or lower during a game.

 

Keep in mind that Win Expectancy is based on the odds an average team would win on average, so if the 2001 Mariners were playing the 2003 Tigers, WE would treat a 4-0 game in the 9th the same as if two very equal teams were in the same situation. Additionally, a WPA of 0.40 and 0.08 both earn a Shutdown, even though the former is very likely a more impressive performance.

[moonslav59]

Here are some Sox pen rankings from fangraphs:

 

10th ERA- 90

10th HR/9 0.90

T10th fWAR 2.2

11th K-BB% 15.1%

13th WHIP 1.22

14th ERA- 99

15th xFIP- 99

17th LOB% 71.2%

18th HR/9 1.12 (thanks to Nate)

 

Some might be surprised to see our starters rank lower in some of these rankings:

11th LOB% 74.1%

14th xFIP- 101

15th fWAR 5.6

15th WHIP 1.27

16th K-BB% 13.8%

 

[moonslav59]

Don't worry everyone, it's very simple. I'm sure Old Red and others will find it very clear...

 

Calculation:

 

To determine if a pitcher has earned a Shutdown or Meltdown, you simply need to check their Win Probability Added (WPA) for the game in question. WPA is a measure of how much the team’s Win Expectancy changed while a given pitcher was on the mound. If you enter a game with a WE of 84% and exit the game with a WE of 94%, the pitcher is credited with +0.10 WPA. If you enter with a WE of 64% and leave with a WE of 46%, the pitcher earns -0.18 WPA.

 

In order to delineate between outings of consequence and those without much, relievers only earn Shutdowns if they register a WPA of +0.06 or greater in a given game. The same is true on the negative side of the ledger, earning a Meltdown if they produce a -0.06 WPA or lower during a game.

 

Keep in mind that Win Expectancy is based on the odds an average team would win on average, so if the 2001 Mariners were playing the 2003 Tigers, WE would treat a 4-0 game in the 9th the same as if two very equal teams were in the same situation. Additionally, a WPA of 0.40 and 0.08 both earn a Shutdown, even though the former is very likely a more impressive performance.

 

This would never pass Red's Eye Test.

 

RP WPA

5.62 NYY

4.71 STL

4.27 BAL

3.84 MIL

3.52 HOU

2.51 COL

2.06 BOS

1.94 ATL & CHC

1.92 SEA

The pen ranks 21st in -WPA and 5th in +WPA.

 

Our starters rank 10th In WPA at 1.58 (NYY is 3rd).

7th in -WPA

17th in +WPA

[mvp 78]

This would never pass Red's Eye Test.

 

RP WPA

5.62 NYY

4.71 STL

4.27 BAL

3.84 MIL

3.52 HOU

2.51 COL

2.06 BOS

1.94 ATL & CHC

1.92 SEA

The pen ranks 21st in -WPA and 5th in +WPA.

 

Our starters rank 10th In WPA at 1.58 (NYY is 3rd).

7th in -WPA

17th in +WPA

 

7th in Shutdowns 86

4th in Meltdowns 55

 

It's the yin and yang of the Red Sox bullpen. The Schrodinger bullpen. The bullpen that will theoretically save and blow the game at the same time.

[moonslav59]

7th in Shutdowns 86

4th in Meltdowns 55

 

It's the yin and yang of the Red Sox bullpen. The Schrodinger bullpen. The bullpen that will theoretically save and blow the game at the same time.

 

I think blowing and saving the same games have been a reality, at times.

 

Our starters have had quite a bit of meltdowns, too, but they just aren't called that.

[Kimmi]

I guess I would need to see some meaningful statistical comparisons to other bullpens to really judge.

 

The "Team Relief Pitching" stats on B-R make our pen look terrible, but they're pretty wonky-looking stats.

 

I'm not sure what you would consider a meaningful statistical comparison, but looking at several relief pitching stats at Fangraphs, Sox relievers are not that bad, except in the category of meltdowns. But even with that, you have to look a little deeper, IMO. The Sox relievers have the highest leverage index (LI) in MLB when entering a game, meaning they are entering in critical situations more so than other teams. IMO, that makes the possibility of a shutdown or a meltdown more likely because there is less wiggle room.

 

The late inning blown saves and losses are things that will stick in our minds because they are at the end of the game and because they are so difficult to take. We tend to remember those better than the times the BP pitched well.