2022 Bullpen Thread

[Larry Cook]

We know the Sox BP is weak. We still will have to go through the Yankees, Blue Jays and Rays before the all star break. With our BP, that sounds problematic. Don't think Bloom can rectify the situation this season.

 

There is really just two super weak links, brazier and Robles. And two semi weak links, swaumura and Davis.

[moonslav59]

There is really just two super weak links, brazier and Robles. And two semi weak links, swaumura and Davis.

 

Davis is okay.

 

4 super weak links: Barnes, Brasier, Robles & Diekman

 

Semi weak: Sawamura

[oldtimer]

Davis is okay.

 

4 super weak links: Barnes, Brasier, Robles & Diekman

 

Semi weak: Sawamura

 

Which is too many. Other teams know of the weaknesses so it makes trading any of them problematical unless coupled with prospects the other teams may want. This leaves us with attempting to pick up pitching with cash considerations, swapping away our better prospects or promoting additional pitchers from within. I would hate to see the front office panic and give away key prospects, especially given that we may falter when facing the iron of the American League East shortly before the AS break. If the front office decides some of our prospects are not key to our future success, then perhaps those players could be trade bait, but what might they bring? My view is this year is another in which the team will tread water and next year we may be in a more solid financial position to really strengthen the team. Only then can we see if Bloom and ownership are heading us in the right direction.

[notin]

Which is too many. Other teams know of the weaknesses so it makes trading any of them problematical unless coupled with prospects the other teams may want. This leaves us with attempting to pick up pitching with cash considerations, swapping away our better prospects or promoting additional pitchers from within. I would hate to see the front office panic and give away key prospects, especially given that we may falter when facing the iron of the American League East shortly before the AS break. If the front office decides some of our prospects are not key to our future success, then perhaps those players could be trade bait, but what might they bring? My view is this year is another in which the team will tread water and next year we may be in a more solid financial position to really strengthen the team. Only then can we see if Bloom and ownership are heading us in the right direction.

 

 

They don’t have to be traded. They can be DFAd and released. Barnes and Diekman are the only ones making actual money, and neither has any sort of immovable contract. Heck, Robles signed a minor league deal…

[Bellhorn04]

Davis is okay.

 

4 super weak links: Barnes, Brasier, Robles & Diekman

 

Semi weak: Sawamura

 

Laugh at me if you must, but I think Bloom and Cora still have some faith in Brasier, and he's been pretty good over the last month.

[notin]

Laugh at me if you must, but I think Bloom and Cora still have some faith in Brasier, and he's been pretty good over the last month.

 

What will it take for them to lose faith in Robles?

[Bellhorn04]

To me the Diekman contract might be the most confounding move Bloom has made. Especially when it was reported we were in talks with McHugh and then McHugh ended up signing for only a million a year more.

[notin]

Laugh at me if you must, but I think Bloom and Cora still have some faith in Brasier, and he's been pretty good over the last month.

 

Since May 15;

.563 OPSA

2.64 FIP

3.00 ERA

11/1 K/BB

 

Only over 12 IP, but he certainly has been better…

[Bellhorn04]

What will it take for them to lose faith in Robles?

 

Good question.

[notin]

To me the Diekman contract might be the most confounding move Bloom has made. Especially when it was reported we were in talks with McHugh and then McHugh ended up signing for only a million a year more.

 

While not as good as McHugh, Diekman is getting a bad rap. He’s pitched in 27 games and allowed 9 ER this season. 6 of those 9 came in 2 games. (Diekman has allowed 5 of 12 IR to score this year.)

 

He walks way too many people to be trusted in high leverage situations, but he’s been much better than Barnes and Robles…

[notin]

The Sox acquired RHP James Norwood yesterday. Who got DFAd?

[notin]

To me the Diekman contract might be the most confounding move Bloom has made. Especially when it was reported we were in talks with McHugh and then McHugh ended up signing for only a million a year more.

 

I looked at McHugh’s season. Has he really been that much more effective than Diekman?

 

ERA’s are very close. Diekman’s FIP and K/BB suggest he’s been luckier, but to date I don’t think McHugh would have made much difference.

 

McHugh has been better at stranding inherited runners (24% to 42%) but not all stranded runners are equal…

Edited June 19, 2022 by notin

[Bellhorn04]

I looked at McHugh’s season. Has he really been that much more effective than Diekman?

 

ERA’s are very close. Diekman’s FIP and K/BB suggest he’s been luckier, but to date I don’t think McHugh would have made much difference.

 

McHugh has been better at stranding inherited runners (24% to 42%) but not all stranded runners are equal…

 

Diekman has the worst FIP and the worst WHIP on the staff. I'd say his ERA is very lucky.

 

McHugh's FIP is half of Diekman's.

[notin]

Diekman has the worst FIP and the worst WHIP on the staff. I'd say his ERA is very lucky.

 

Yeah but that’s an evaluation of talent. Not results. If the Sox had signed McHugh over Diekman, would things be any different today?

[Bellhorn04]

Yeah but that’s an evaluation of talent. Not results. If the Sox had signed McHugh over Diekman, would things be any different today?

 

No, I'm not really saying the results would be much different. Just that it was a perplexing move.

[notin]

No, I'm not really saying the results would be much different. Just that it was a perplexing move.

 

To me his most perplexing move so far has been the Houck/Whitlock Bullpen rotation shuffle. I don’t get why both earmarked relievers got bounced around so much and never had their slots backfilled once we all learned Sale was going to be out.

 

I mean, why not just get another starter?

[Bellhorn04]

To me his most perplexing move so far has been the Houck/Whitlock Bullpen rotation shuffle. I don’t get why both earmarked relievers got bounced around so much and never had their slots backfilled once we all learned Sale was going to be out.

 

I mean, why not just get another starter?

 

I have no answers on Houck/Whitlock. It does seem pretty obvious they were making it up on the fly.

 

It wouldn't be such an issue if guys like Barnes and Robles hadn't been so bad, of course.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

To me his most perplexing move so far has been the Houck/Whitlock Bullpen rotation shuffle. I don’t get why both earmarked relievers got bounced around so much and never had their slots backfilled once we all learned Sale was going to be out.

 

I mean, why not just get another starter?

 

Because eight of their top 15 prospects are starting pitchers (who they don't think any are quite ready yet to be full-time big leaguers... nor do they think the parent club -- soon to be in flux -- is worth fortifying this year by trading one or two for a current big league starter)?

[moonslav59]

Laugh at me if you must, but I think Bloom and Cora still have some faith in Brasier, and he's been pretty good over the last month.

 

Brasier has some good pitches. He was struggling for a while, but he has missed a lot of time due to various injuries over the past few years.

 

I can understand why GMs keep RP'ers and "recycle" them often. They are often hit or miss, and when you hit, they can help for extended periods. Maybe Brtasier is onto one of those periods, now.

 

I think I may be one of the few that sort of defended keeping Brasier on the roster and often had him higher on the depth chart than others, until recently. He really sucked badly in so many key games, early on. I lost faith.

 

I'm not sure I'm at the point where I'm gaining it back, but your numbers opened my eyes to possibility.

 

As many know, I use OPS and OPS Against often. Some of the names on my list do not have bad numbers:

 

.403 Schreiber

.573 Valdez (on some people's DFA lists, maybe)

.581 Strahm

.585 Danish (Not someone people have faith in, either)

.616 Sawamura

.661 Davis

.734 Robles

.768 Diekman

.784 Barnes- a salvageable number

.795 Brasier- same as Barnes

 

[moonslav59]

To me the Diekman contract might be the most confounding move Bloom has made. Especially when it was reported we were in talks with McHugh and then McHugh ended up signing for only a million a year more.

 

I had mentioned McHugh's name a lot over the winter, and from day one questioned the Diekman signing, especially the rare second year given by Bloom. I know the money was not large, but still...

 

It's one of the few critiques I got right, last winter, and there may still be time to turn that around.

 

In 2021, the Perez signing looked great until June. Now, he looks like a Cy Yong contender for another team. In between, he sucked.

[notin]

Because eight of their top 15 prospects are starting pitchers (who they don't think any are quite ready yet to be full-time big leaguers... nor do they think the parent club -- soon to be in flux -- is worth fortifying this year by trading one or two for a current big league starter)?

 

If 26yo Connor Seabold and 24yo Josh Winckowski -neither of whom have anything left to prove in AAA - are not ready, when will they be? In their early 30s?

[moonslav59]

Yeah but that’s an evaluation of talent. Not results. If the Sox had signed McHugh over Diekman, would things be any different today?

 

Not by much.

 

The thing that gets me is that this pen, on paper, going into the season, was not much different from last year's pen- on paper.

 

Ottavino was largely a question mark and Whitlock showed much promise in ST'ing but was not somebody we could count on. Barnes was a decent 8th inning guy, but the talk on this site was about having no closer and very weak pen depth. The pen was not great, last year, but they carried us for long stretches, particularly Barnes until June. Guys like Richards and Robles played key roles after Barnes' implosion.

 

I think I went into this season thinking maybe Bloom and Cora could work magic with unsung pitchers year-after-year. So far, the only magic we've seen has been black magic. The season is not even half over, and trades will likely be made.

 

One of the few things we all seem to agree on is that we will likely fail if the pen is left, as is. Some want Whitlock to close. Some think Houck can be the closer. Some think trying some prospects is worth a shot. Some want a trade made ASAP. Some want to just complain about Bloom's incompetence. Others mix and match or perhaps think something I missed. All-in-all, I think all of us think we need new blood, and with the roster limit of 14 pitchers being trimmed to 13 on Monday, somebody has to go, even without adding new blood, so if new b lood is to be added, two have to go or be demoted.

 

I think the lists being posted are good fodder for debate.

 

I doubt we DFA Barnes and that salary.

 

Diekman's second year makes me think he's not going anywhere, as of Monday, anyway.

 

Sawamura is not being paid much, and maybe could be traded, but every team is trimming pens, right now. Sawamura has options, so demoting him could be the solution, at least temporarily.

 

That leaves Brasier and Robles. I'd say Robles is choice number one. soxprospects.com shows Brasier with one option remaining, but I wonder if he need to okay a demotion. If not, he might be demoted to keep all options on the table going forward.

 

I am nearly 100% certain we make a summer deal or two for pen help, but remember, Sale's pending return will add someone to the pen. If Paxton ever joins the team, there's another pen addition. With either of these two, the return of Whitlock to the pen seems likely. That would be a huge boost and better than just about any trade imaginable.

[notin]

I had mentioned McHugh's name a lot over the winter, and from day one questioned the Diekman signing, especially the rare second year given by Bloom. I know the money was not large, but still...

 

It's one of the few critiques I got right, last winter, and there may still be time to turn that around.

 

In 2021, the Perez signing looked great until June. Now, he looks like a Cy Yong contender for another team. In between, he sucked.

 

I was ready to move on from Perez. He had his ups and downs.

 

The McHugh/Diekman debate is looking like what Bellhorn calls Recency Effect. Over the last 3-4 years, not much difference statistically between the two. But McHugh was stellar last year.

 

Now there are two differences. 1. McHughdid spent a fair amount of his time as a starter, which does influence his numbers negatively. And 2. McHugh has shown himself to be more injury prone.

 

Do these offset?

[moonslav59]

To me his most perplexing move so far has been the Houck/Whitlock Bullpen rotation shuffle. I don’t get why both earmarked relievers got bounced around so much and never had their slots backfilled once we all learned Sale was going to be out.

 

I mean, why not just get another starter?

 

I think the hope was Houck or Whitlock could start, and the other could boost a pen that looked about the same as last year's pen.

 

I'm not defending the choice. I'm always for adding more quality pitching, no matter how good we look on paper, and we did not look good on paper by opening day.

 

One problem is, some of the names we were throwing around, last winter, have sucked, too. In hindsight, we should have brought Martin Perez back, but who here would have felt any joy with that re-signing?

[moonslav59]

To me his most perplexing move so far has been the Houck/Whitlock Bullpen rotation shuffle. I don’t get why both earmarked relievers got bounced around so much and never had their slots backfilled once we all learned Sale was going to be out.

 

I mean, why not just get another starter?

 

The Houck piggy-backing decision seems to be the most perplexing choice made by Cora/Bloom.

[moonslav59]

If 26yo Connor Seabold and 24yo Josh Winckowski -neither of whom have anything left to prove in AAA - are not ready, when will they be? In their early 30s?

 

Not trying Seabold makes me think they just don't believe in him, despite his sub .500 OPS against in AAA. My guess: they trade him at the deadline, and they didn't want his stock to fall by being shelled in the bigs after a call-up.

 

How much has Crawford and Winckowski's stock suffered after their call-ups? Probably not as much as we think, but still...

[moonslav59]

I was ready to move on from Perez. He had his ups and downs.

 

The McHugh/Diekman debate is looking like what Bellhorn calls Recency Effect. Over the last 3-4 years, not much difference statistically between the two. But McHugh was stellar last year.

 

Now there are two differences. 1. McHughdid spent a fair amount of his time as a starter, which does influence his numbers negatively. And 2. McHugh has shown himself to be more injury prone.

 

Do these offset?

 

To be honest, I saw nothing in Diekman that looked positive. I trusted Bloom saw something, and there is still time for that "something" to emerge, but I'm done hoping for it.

[notin]

Not trying Seabold makes me think they just don't believe in him, despite his sub .500 OPS against in AAA. My guess: they trade him at the deadline, and they didn't want his stock to fall by being shelled in the bigs after a call-up.

 

How much has Crawford and Winckowski's stock suffered after their call-ups? Probably not as much as we think, but still...

 

Crawford at least has that Seattle start, but I’d prefer him in a smaller bullpen role. But I do agree with them there is MLB talent; it’s just borderline talent that is best used properly.

 

Winckowski and Seabold do both deserve a look. But if you’re right about Seabold, it does kill off any firesale talk for now…

[notin]

To be honest, I saw nothing in Diekman that looked positive. I trusted Bloom saw something, and there is still time for that "something" to emerge, but I'm done hoping for it.

 

I’ve always thought Diekman was good. And his long career is proof others have agreed. But his career long battles with walks is the one thing that makes him prone to off years and reckless outings…

[notin]

The Houck piggy-backing decision seems to be the most perplexing choice made by Cora/Bloom.

 

Don’t get me started…