Red Sox trade Hunter Renfroe in trade involving Jackie Bradley Jr

[notin]

Time to cancel notin.

 

I’m harder to cancel than AOL, which was harder to get rid of than herpes…

[notin]

His channel is called notflix...

 

Speaking of which, I’m raising your rates. It’s going to cost money to take away those good shows…

[notin]

The real point we've established is that one hit a week can make a big difference.

 

No.

 

Unless that one hit a week accounts for 107 total bases by season end…

[Bellhorn04]

No.

 

Unless that one hit a week accounts for 107 total bases by season end…

 

But of course the difference was 48 hits, because there were more at bats.

 

Are you honestly trying to argue that one hit a week does not make a big difference?

 

Yes or no.

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox had 1434 hits, last year and scored 829 runs.

 

If you apply the same ratio to 30 hits, it comes to 17.3 runs, or 1.73 WAR- rounded up to 2.

 

 

The major league average for 2021 was 16.7 runs per 30 hits.

[moonslav59]

The major league average for 2021 was 16.7 runs per 30 hits.

 

Not far off.

[Kimmi]

The problem with this entire argument is the use of BA in and of itself.

[SCM33]

If he's hitting 165, it's a problem. If he's hitting 225, you live with it.

 

Yes.

 

Not sure he can hit that high though.

 

He sucks.

[SCM33]

The problem with this entire argument is the use of BA in and of itself.

 

Its not when he hits that low.

[SCM33]

I’m harder to cancel than AOL, which was harder to get rid of than herpes…

 

I miss AOL.

 

Times were easier back then.

[notin]

But of course the difference was 48 hits, because there were more at bats.

 

Are you honestly trying to argue that one hit a week does not make a big difference?

 

Yes or no.

 

Correct. Especially since not all hits are created equal and why I keep bringing it back to total bases...

[Bellhorn04]

Correct. Especially since not all hits are created equal and why I keep bringing it back to total bases...

 

So your original point that the difference between 165 and 225 is only one hit a week is:

 

a) an interesting mathematical tidbit

that says nothing about the actual impact on runs, wins and losses

[mvp 78]

The problem with this entire argument is the use of BA in and of itself.

 

No, it's fine because we already have a good idea what his bb/k rate would be. If he's hitting 225, he's getting on base. If he's only hitting 165, it's a nightmare.

[mvp 78]

i miss aol.

 

Times were easier back then.

 

a/s/l?

[moonslav59]

No, it's fine because we already have a good idea what his bb/k rate would be. If he's hitting 225, he's getting on base. If he's only hitting 165, it's a nightmare.

 

True. His 6.5% BB rate was the lowest of his career. Only his 7.3% in 2014 was close.

 

His career BB% is 9%, and it was higher before 2021.

[notin]

Correct. Especially since not all hits are created equal and why I keep bringing it back to total bases...

 

Let me correct this.

 

You’re looking at team numbers and applying them to a single player This is not true. One hit per week from Vlad Guerrero is worth more than one hit per week from Sergio Espinal, because Vlad’s hits are for more total bases based on each player’s SLG. Team data involves a distribution of hits not every player is capable of achieving.

 

There are many formulas for Runs Created. The most basic one they are all derived from is Total Bases*(hits +walks)/PA. So a blanket statement that one hit per week = 2 more wins (an increase of 20 RC) is entirely dependent on the total bases involved with those extra hits...

[moonslav59]

Let me correct this.

 

You’re looking at team numbers and applying them to a single player This is not true. One hit per week from Vlad Guerrero is worth more than one hit per week from Sergio Espinal, because Vlad’s hits are for more total bases based on each player’s SLG. Team data involves a distribution of hits not every player is capable of achieving.

 

There are many formulas for Runs Created. The most basic one they are all derived from is Total Bases*(hits +walks)/PA. So a blanket statement that one hit per week = 2 more wins (an increase of 20 RC) is entirely dependent on the total bases involved with those extra hits...

 

"Total bases" is not "hits+walks." Hits don't count dbls as 2, triples as 3 and HRs as 4.

[Bellhorn04]

Let me correct this.

 

You’re looking at team numbers and applying them to a single player This is not true. One hit per week from Vlad Guerrero is worth more than one hit per week from Sergio Espinal, because Vlad’s hits are for more total bases based on each player’s SLG. Team data involves a distribution of hits not every player is capable of achieving.

 

There are many formulas for Runs Created. The most basic one they are all derived from is Total Bases*(hits +walks)/PA. So a blanket statement that one hit per week = 2 more wins (an increase of 20 RC) is entirely dependent on the total bases involved with those extra hits...

 

You started all this trouble.

[notin]

"Total bases" is not "hits+walks." Hits don't count dbls as 2, triples as 3 and HRs as 4.

 

 

The formula that I (tried to) write is total bases times the sum of hits and walks. Etc.

 

The point is “hits” alone don’t equate to runs and ultimately wins. Total bases are a very big factor...

[notin]

You started all this trouble.

 

Again, please read post 706...

[Bellhorn04]

Again, please read post 706...

 

Please read post 694...

 

Obviously, 30 hits does not automatically translate to 17 runs. But on average, it does.

[notin]

Please read post 694...

 

Obviously, 30 hits does not automatically translate to 17 runs. But on average, it does.

 

There was nothing mathematically incorrect in 694. The same cannot be said about 706.

 

And “on average” isn’t always best applied to every individual. Me, you and Bill Gates have an average net worth of over $10 billion. That’s a true statement (assuming I correctly guessed his net worth). Does it feel accurate when applied to just you?

[Bellhorn04]

There was nothing mathematically incorrect in 694. The same cannot be said about 706.

 

Oh dear, I left out the 'on average' part. Mea culpa!

[notin]

Oh dear, I left out the 'on average' part. Mea culpa!

 

 

Wow. You admitted an error to me? I’ll take it despite completely recognizing the sarcasm.

[dgalehouse]

Let me correct this.

 

You’re looking at team numbers and applying them to a single player This is not true. One hit per week from Vlad Guerrero is worth more than one hit per week from Sergio Espinal, because Vlad’s hits are for more total bases based on each player’s SLG. Team data involves a distribution of hits not every player is capable of achieving.

 

There are many formulas for Runs Created. The most basic one they are all derived from is Total Bases*(hits +walks)/PA. So a blanket statement that one hit per week = 2 more wins (an increase of 20 RC) is entirely dependent on the total bases involved with those extra hits...

 

The boys down at Clancy's were debating these formulas just the other night.

[mvp 78]

The boys down at Clancy's were debating these formulas just the other night.

 

Those boys down at Clancy's also like to yell ignorant s*** at the tv whenever Betts would watch a called third strike.

[notin]

Those boys down at Clancy's also like to yell ignorant s*** at the tv whenever Betts would watch a called third strike.

 

They also yell at Belichick when he makes a questionable play call on third and long, apparently thinking his headset links directly to microphones at Clancy’s…

[mvp 78]

They also yell at Belichick when he makes a questionable play call on third and long, apparently thinking his headset links directly to microphones at Clancy’s…

 

Advanced statistical debates are quite lively at Clancy's.

 

Big Joe has a +3 on MTR (missing toilet receptacle)

Sully is a -5 on VIA (vomiting in alley)

Al is -35 on STP (server tip percentage)

[harmony]

FanGraphs columnist Jay Jaffe ranks the Red Sox 24th in projected WAR from right field:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-positional-power-rankings-right-field/

[mvp 78]

FanGraphs columnist Jay Jaffe ranks the Red Sox 24th in projected WAR from right field:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-positional-power-rankings-right-field/

 

It's not looking great. Feels like how LF felt going into 2021.