Will the Sox give Eduardo Rodriguez a Qualifying Offer?

[moonslav59]

I was all in on signing chris Taylor. I really did not think the dodgers would offer him a q.o.

 

This is very disheartening to say, but we need to pass on Taylor now.

 

We might not even get a chance to pass as he may take the QO.

[notin]

We might not even get a chance to pass as he may take the QO.

 

 

Taylor is absolutely taking the QO…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Taylor is absolutely taking the QO…

 

Let's see: according to bb-ref, Chris Taylor's "career-to-date (may be incomplete)" earnings = approximately $18 million. He's in his 30s and was just offered another $18+ mil for one season... by his club where he won a ring two years ago and just made the All-Star team for the first time. Despite his versatility he was also a negative DWAR, and the only category he's ever led the league in is strikeouts.

 

It is quite possible that a year ago -- when Taylor finished a season where he made $5.6 mil -- that he would've taken an offer of $18 mil for the next three years.

[mvp 78]

@JonHeyman

Red Sox extend qualifying offer to Eduardo Rodriguez

[mvp 78]

ERod did get his QO.

 

My guess is that of the 14 players to receive QOs, only Chris Taylor and Raisel Iglesias accept…

 

You think Chris accepts? He's definitely at the high point of his career. This may be time to cash out.

[notin]

You think Chris accepts? He's definitely at the high point of his career. This may be time to cash out.

 

He is not getting anywhere near $18mill this season any other way. And even if he wants to "cash out", he probably won't do much better than Kike did last off-season. So in this case, "cashing out" might mean playing a full season for next to nothing...

[mvp 78]

He is not getting anywhere near $18mill this season any other way. And even if he wants to "cash out", he probably won't do much better than Kike did last off-season. So in this case, "cashing out" might mean playing a full season for next to nothing...

 

Maybe he thinks he can get 4/40 or 3/35? IDK.

[moonslav59]

You think Chris accepts? He's definitely at the high point of his career. This may be time to cash out.

 

Is he much better than Kike was before this season?

 

[mvp 78]

Is he much better than Kike was before this season?

 

 

Much? IDK. He was a better bet than Kiké IMO.

2017 4.8 fWAR

2018 3.1 fWAR

2020 1.7 fWAR (would have been 3+ in a full season)

2021 3.1 fWAR

 

Kiké only had one season above 3 (2018) before hitting the market.

 

Taylor's value is completely in his bat since he had 5 straight years with 100+ WRC+. Kiké's value is in his glove and that doesn't get the cash registers ringing.

[Bellhorn04]

You think Chris accepts? He's definitely at the high point of his career. This may be time to cash out.

 

Cash out or cash in?

[mvp 78]

Cash out or cash in?

 

In strict Webster's terms, it seems that cash out would be to take the QO (convert noncash assets to cash) but cash in would be to reject the QO (settle accounts and withdraw from an involvement). They are kind of used interchangeably though.

[moonslav59]

Much? IDK. He was a better bet than Kiké IMO.

2017 4.8 fWAR

2018 3.1 fWAR

2020 1.7 fWAR (would have been 3+ in a full season)

2021 3.1 fWAR

 

Kiké only had one season above 3 (2018) before hitting the market.

 

Taylor's value is completely in his bat since he had 5 straight years with 100+ WRC+. Kiké's value is in his glove and that doesn't get the cash registers ringing.

 

His numbers show he was "better," but I asked about "much better."

[notin]

Maybe he thinks he can get 4/40 or 3/35? IDK.

 

Maybe he does.

 

But his agent should be reminding him 1) this is not the year to be a non-superstar middle infielder in free agency, and 2) Kike Hernandez did significantly less last year, and Taylor is probably in that ballpark.

 

But even if his agent forgets that, if Taylor takes the QO, he can still reach those numbers with a 3 year/$22mill or a 2 year/$17mill offer next season. And both of those are a lot more reasonable...

[mvp 78]

Rodriguez

Fangraphs: 4/20M, $80M

Crowd median: 4/18M, $72M

Crowd average: 4/18.2M, $78M

 

Schwarber

Fangraphs: 4/15M, $60M

Crowd median: 4/15M, $60M

Crowd average: 4/14.9M, $59.6M

[moonslav59]

Rodriguez

Fangraphs: 4/20M, $80M

Crowd median: 4/18M, $72M

Crowd average: 4/18.2M, $78M

 

Schwarber

Fangraphs: 4/15M, $60M

Crowd median: 4/15M, $60M

Crowd average: 4/14.9M, $59.6M

 

ERod will probably get $20M x 4- maybe even $20M x 5, but I'm not sure I'd go that high and long. Close.

 

I'd pay Schwarber $15M x 4, if we didn't have JD or Renfroe, but we do, so I'd pass.

[mvp 78]

ERod will probably get $20M x 4- maybe even $20M x 5, but I'm not sure I'd go that high and long. Close.

 

I'd pay Schwarber $15M x 4, if we didn't have JD or Renfroe, but we do, so I'd pass.

 

Yeah, I don't see Schwarber coming back.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yeah, I don't see Schwarber coming back.

 

Bloom and the Sox seem to value Schwarber's lefty bat and positive influence around the batting cages more than a few posters do. But if he is still a Red Sox in '22, then maybe another regular from the '21 lineup will be traded (and replaced by a pre-arb type player).

[moonslav59]

Yeah, I don't see Schwarber coming back.

 

I guess, if Bloom is given a very large winter spending budget, he might, but I doubt he gets to spend even $45M.

[moonslav59]

Bloom and the Sox seem to value Schwarber's lefty bat and positive influence around the batting cages more than a few posters do. But if he is still a Red Sox in '22, then maybe another regular from the '21 lineup will be traded (and replaced by a pre-arb type player).

 

To me, the only player that could be traded to make room for Schwarber is Renfroe (move Verdugo to RF,) but I doubt we see that.

 

If we trade Renfroe and save $7M, spending $15M on Schwarber lessens the financial hit, but again, I seriously doubt we do this.

[Bellhorn04]

If they sign Schwarber, they would pretty much have to pay some luxury tax this year.

 

They could then conceivably get back under in 2023, when JD and Price come off the books.

 

But we don't even know what the tax thresholds and rates will be yet.

[notin]

To me, the only player that could be traded to make room for Schwarber is Renfroe (move Verdugo to RF,) but I doubt we see that.

 

If we trade Renfroe and save $7M, spending $15M on Schwarber lessens the financial hit, but again, I seriously doubt we do this.

 

Well, if the Sox do move another regular, a lot of players are candidates. If the plan is to accommodate Schwarber, it’s possible that a player deemed better trade bait (Verdugo?) might be the plan.

 

Maybe comes down to this question - are the Sox better off with Verdugo and a pitcher who can be acquired for Renfroe? Or with Renfroe and a pitcher who can be acquired for Verdugo?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Well, if the Sox do move another regular, a lot of players are candidates. If the plan is to accommodate Schwarber, it’s possible that a player deemed better trade bait (Verdugo?) might be the plan.

 

Maybe comes down to this question - are the Sox better off with Verdugo and a pitcher who can be acquired for Renfroe? Or with Renfroe and a pitcher who can be acquired for Verdugo?

 

It's a good question -- and maybe strategy option -- because the arm for Verdugo would have to be attached to a better pitcher than someone we'd get for Renfroe -- right?

 

Also have to wonder what kind of pitching prospect Bloom could buy for one year of JD plus his subsidized contract?

Edited November 8, 2021 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75

[notin]

BTV gives Verdugo a surplus value of $38.6mill and Renfroe a surplus value of $1.6ill.

 

So Renfroe doesn't get much, but the candidates are a long and boring list. Verdugo, OTOH, matches up well with pitchers like Montas ($39.6) and Means ($36.9). And the stretch targets are pitchers like Ranger Suarez and Tyler Mahle (who I find surprising at that value).

 

Of course, Verdugo is also a really good player, so it does get tough to give him up. The hope would be that Renfroe can return a player that Bloom sees actual untapped potential in.

[mvp 78]

Well, if the Sox do move another regular, a lot of players are candidates. If the plan is to accommodate Schwarber, it’s possible that a player deemed better trade bait (Verdugo?) might be the plan.

 

Maybe comes down to this question - are the Sox better off with Verdugo and a pitcher who can be acquired for Renfroe? Or with Renfroe and a pitcher who can be acquired for Verdugo?

 

Verdugo and the Renfroe pitcher.

[mvp 78]

I like Verdugo, but I don't think his BTV amount is accurate. Seems kinda high.

[notin]

It's a good question -- and maybe strategy option -- because the arm for Verdugo would have to be attached to a better pitcher than someone we'd get for Renfroe -- right?

 

Also have to wonder what kind of pitching prospect Bloom could buy for one year of JD plus his subsidized contract?

 

 

 

No idea if the sirte is updated to reflect hih non-opt out, but BTV gives Martinez a surplus value of negative $9.6mill. The actual closest pitcher is Lance McCullers at negative $8.6mill, although I doubt Houston would deal McCullers, as he is so fragile that it is entirely possible I have caused him an injury merely by typing his name in this post...

[notin]

Verdugo and the Renfroe pitcher.

 

Verdugo and Brad Keller ($1.3mill)? That was probably the best one in his range.

 

Others like Dean Kremer ($1.7mill) and Eli Morgan ($1.6mill) are just too hard to argue as even being upgrades even before we take Renfroe out of the lineup...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I like Verdugo, but I don't think his BTV amount is accurate. Seems kinda high.

 

I do too, and I don't either... Is Verdugo really a better all-around leftfielder than even Benintendi (who just won the Gold Glove)?

 

2021 WAR: Verdugo 2.3, Beni 2.4. Career OPS so far: Verdugo .792, Beni .784. Maybe if Dugo played LF exclusively, he'd rate higher, because no one liked him in CF. I don't have stats to back this, either, but from what I remember, 2020 Verdugo also looked better to me in RF than 2021 Renfroe (a GG finalist).

 

Benintendi is one of only five Red Sox outfielders in the past half century with a 20-20 HR-SB season; others include Yaz, Burks, Ellsbury and Betts. All five were also GG winners in their careers. I know some posters dislike Beni for some reason, but if Bloom was willing to swap him for four prospects and a Franchy, can we doubt he'd pull the trigger on a similar Verdugo deal?

[moonslav59]

If they sign Schwarber, they would pretty much have to pay some luxury tax this year.

 

They could then conceivably get back under in 2023, when JD and Price come off the books.

 

But we don't even know what the tax thresholds and rates will be yet.

 

We could sign ERod and Schwarber and stay under the current tax line, but that would be about all we could do.

 

I'd spend it all on pitching, except for maybe a little on someone like Iggy.

[moonslav59]

Well, if the Sox do move another regular, a lot of players are candidates. If the plan is to accommodate Schwarber, it’s possible that a player deemed better trade bait (Verdugo?) might be the plan.

 

Maybe comes down to this question - are the Sox better off with Verdugo and a pitcher who can be acquired for Renfroe? Or with Renfroe and a pitcher who can be acquired for Verdugo?

 

Another option could be to trade Dalbec and have Schwarber work out at 1B all winter.

 

Then, when JD leave, we move Schwarber to DH as Casas takes over 1B.

 

(Again, I'm not for spending on Schwarber, though.)