Will the Sox give Eduardo Rodriguez a Qualifying Offer?

[moonslav59]

I like Verdugo, but I don't think his BTV amount is accurate. Seems kinda high.

 

Agreed, but because his pay is low, his value is higher.

[notin]

Agreed, but because his pay is low, his value is higher.

 

Exactly.

 

If a player has 4 years left, and is projected to be worth 12 fWAR over that timeframe, and each fWAR is valued at $8mill. And his projected salary is, say, $1mill for the first year, $6mill in the second, $9mill in the third, and $12mill in the 4th of those 4 years. Then his surplus trade value is (12 * $8mill) - ($1mill + $6mill + $9mill + $12 mill) or $96mill - $28mill, giving him a final surplus value of $68mill. Their system is a little more complicated, but those are the basics of it...

 

And as those performance projections change, and those salary projections change, and as those years pass, they need to be updated accordingly.

[moonslav59]

Exactly.

 

If a player has 4 years left, and is projected to be worth 12 fWAR over that timeframe, and each fWAR is valued at $8mill. And his projected salary is, say, $1mill for the first year, $6mill in the second, $9mill in the third, and $12mill in the 4th of those 4 years. Then his surplus trade value is (12 * $8mill) - ($1mill + $6mill + $9mill + $12 mill) or $96mill - $28mill, giving him a final surplus value of $68mill. Their system is a little more complicated, but those are the basics of it...

 

And as those performance projections change, and those salary projections change, and as those years pass, they need to be updated accordingly.

 

I think BTV does a pretty good job. They need to update more often, but I applaud their efforts.

 

I do think Verdugo might be over-valued but not by a lot.

 

Some interesting points I see from BTV, concerning the Sox:

 

-We'd have to pay a team $9.6M for them to take JD off our hands for no positive value in return.

 

-Barnes is now worth -$4.9M. Sawamura -$1.8M.

 

-I'm not sure why the low-paid Brasier is worth zero. So are DHern and Valdez.

 

-Player I think we might DFA have plus values, so can we trade them? (I doubt it.)

+0.2 Arauz

+0.5 Plawecki

+2.4 Potts

+3.0 Rosario

(I like Arauz more than anyone else on this short list.)

 

-They have Renfroe making $7.6M on arb and still worth +$1.6M.

-Vaz makes $7M and is worth +$1.6M, too. Could either be traded to clear up more salary space?

 

-Is Duran over-valued at $23.1M?

-Dalbec at $13.5M?

Downs at $11.8M?

Jimenez at $10.8M? (He might not even be protected for Rule 5!)

 

-Is Bello under-valued at $4.8M?

-Groome at $4.3M?

-Winckowski & Seabold at $3.3-3.5M?

 

-The guys we got for Beni are valued at...

3.3M Winckowski

2.4M Valdez

0.7M Gambrel

0.0M Cordero

0.1 de la Rosa

 

Beni is valued at +2.7M.

[notin]

I think BTV does a pretty good job. They need to update more often, but I applaud their efforts.

 

I do think Verdugo might be over-valued but not by a lot.

 

Some interesting points I see from BTV, concerning the Sox:

 

-We'd have to pay a team $9.6M for them to take JD off our hands for no positive value in return.

 

-Barnes is now worth -$4.9M. Sawamura -$1.8M.

 

-I'm not sure why the low-paid Brasier is worth zero. So are DHern and Valdez.

 

-Player I think we might DFA have plus values, so can we trade them? (I doubt it.)

+0.2 Arauz

+0.5 Plawecki

+2.4 Potts

+3.0 Rosario

(I like Arauz more than anyone else on this short list.)

 

-They have Renfroe making $7.6M on arb and still worth +$1.6M.

-Vaz makes $7M and is worth +$1.6M, too. Could either be traded to clear up more salary space?

 

-Is Duran over-valued at $23.1M?

-Dalbec at $13.5M?

Downs at $11.8M?

Jimenez at $10.8M? (He might not even be protected for Rule 5!)

 

-Is Bello under-valued at $4.8M?

-Groome at $4.3M?

-Winckowski & Seabold at $3.3-3.5M?

 

-The guys we got for Beni are valued at...

3.3M Winckowski

2.4M Valdez

0.7M Gambrel

0.0M Cordero

0.1 de la Rosa

 

Beni is valued at +2.7M.

 

I think those relievers have 0 value because they are not projected to rack up fWAR at a greater pace than their salary increase. Especially Braiser, who is not exactly 25 anymore and could experience some decline in his 30s on some projection models...

[Bellhorn04]

I think those relievers have 0 value because they are not projected to rack up fWAR at a greater pace than their salary increase. Especially Braiser, who is not exactly 25 anymore and could experience some decline in his 30s on some projection models...

 

The fact that Brasier had a -0.1 fWAR (4.84 FIP) in 2021 didn't help.

[notin]

The fact that Brasier had a -0.1 fWAR (4.84 FIP) in 2021 didn't help.

 

I think his very low IP total was also a factor. It's hard to be as good as a replacement player when you're the guy getting replaced...

[Bellhorn04]

I think his very low IP total was also a factor. It's hard to be as good as a replacement player when you're the guy getting replaced...

 

Right. Now if he had a positive fWAR, we could extrapolate it into a better number. But with a negative fWAR, it only gets worse...

[moonslav59]

I think those relievers have 0 value because they are not projected to rack up fWAR at a greater pace than their salary increase. Especially Braiser, who is not exactly 25 anymore and could experience some decline in his 30s on some projection models...

 

I think Brasier, Valdez and DHern would be snatched up by just about every MLB team, if put on waivers.

 

That should equate to plus value.

 

I do not think Potts would be snagged.

[mvp 78]

Agreed, but because his pay is low, his value is higher.

 

I agree that his value should be high because of his pay, but it still seems a little inflated.

[mvp 78]

I think Brasier, Valdez and DHern would be snatched up by just about every MLB team, if put on waivers.

 

That should equate to plus value.

 

I do not think Potts would be snagged.

 

They toyed around with Valdez's playing time enough this year. May as well let him loose.

[moonslav59]

They toyed around with Valdez's playing time enough this year. May as well let him loose.

 

Valdez always seemed to do better than his profile and stuff indicated he should do, but he pitched pretty well for us, except for a very few games where he got totally shelled and left in longer than maybe he deserved to be.

 

The 3.26 ERA in 2020 was not supported by his 1.615 WHIP, but this year seemed like the reverse. (5.85 ERA/1.350 WHIP and .700 OPS Against)

 

I think he got hurt, and they just stopped pitching him for a while.

 

He had a 3.45 ERA and 3.41 FIP after his first 22 games (29 IP), then the wheels fell off.

 

2 bad games really messed up his stats:

 

1 IP 5H 7 ER 2BB 1 K

1 IP 5H 5 ER 1BB 0 K

 

His last 6 games:

11.91 ERA/ 7.85 FIP (11 IP)

 

Take away those 2 games and he put up these numbers:

 

38 IP

25 Hits

16 BB

1.08 WHIP

12 ER

2.84 ERA

 

I know every pitcher's numbers would look better minus their two worst games, but 12 ERs in 2 IP is about as bad as it can get.

[jacksonianmarch]

ERod is one of the few players I expect to strongly consider the QO. I think he could get himself a nice 4-5 year deal on the open market, but not at the AAV he could demand if he was healthy. If he came back to Boston, posted a 190IP, 3.50ERA season, he will put himself in a great position to cross $20 mil AAV on the open market for a long, long time

[moonslav59]

ERod is one of the few players I expect to strongly consider the QO. I think he could get himself a nice 4-5 year deal on the open market, but not at the AAV he could demand if he was healthy. If he came back to Boston, posted a 190IP, 3.50ERA season, he will put himself in a great position to cross $20 mil AAV on the open market for a long, long time

 

He's never been below 3.80, so thinking 3.50 is a bit unrealistic. My guess, is, if he stays, you'll project 4.50.

 

He'll be a year older, next year. He has a very nice last 2/3of the season, and GMs see that.

 

He will not take the QO, IMO.

[notin]

ERod is one of the few players I expect to strongly consider the QO. I think he could get himself a nice 4-5 year deal on the open market, but not at the AAV he could demand if he was healthy. If he came back to Boston, posted a 190IP, 3.50ERA season, he will put himself in a great position to cross $20 mil AAV on the open market for a long, long time

 

 

Doubtful. He’s going to reject it; teams are already expressing interest in him…

[jacksonianmarch]

ERod's peripherals all point to 2021 being his best season, interestingly enough.

[notin]

ERod's peripherals all point to 2021 being his best season, interestingly enough.

 

All the more reason to reject his QO…

[Larry Cook]

Someone reported that the angels were sniffing around Rodriguez!

 

Glad we put the q.o. Out there.

[moonslav59]

ERod's peripherals all point to 2021 being his best season, interestingly enough.

 

And GMs see and know that, so why should he wait until he's a year older to cash in on something large and long?

 

GMs are not fantasy baseball GMs. They actually know to look beyond ERA.

[Kimmi]

Someone reported that the angels were sniffing around Rodriguez!

 

Glad we put the q.o. Out there.

 

No surprise about the QO, and also no surprise that other teams are interested in ERod.

 

The Sox have reportedly made a multi-year offer to ERod, though details are not known.

[moonslav59]

No surprise about the QO, and also no surprise that other teams are interested in ERod.

 

The Sox have reportedly made a multi-year offer to ERod, though details are not known.

 

I'm thinking he deserves at least what Eovaldi got ($17M x 4).

[mvp 78]

I'm thinking he deserves at least what Eovaldi got ($17M x 4).

 

Slightly less IMO.

[moonslav59]

Slightly less IMO.

 

He has better numbers than Eovaldi did.

[Bellhorn04]

He has better numbers than Eovaldi did.

 

I agree. Eovaldi's contract was based more on recency and upside. Fortunately, DD's upside bet has largely been vindicated.

[a700hitter]

I'm thinking he deserves at least what Eovaldi got ($17M x 4).

If the trend is going to continue that starting pitchers will go 3-5 innings, I wouldn’t invest big money is starting pitchers. I’d allocate more money to acquire bullpen pitchers that aren’t a crapshoot.

[mvp 78]

If the trend is going to continue that starting pitchers will go 3-5 innings, I wouldn’t invest big money is starting pitchers. I’d allocate more money to acquire bullpen pitchers that aren’t a crapshoot.

 

3 innings starts is more of a playoff thing than a regular season thing.

[moonslav59]

If the trend is going to continue that starting pitchers will go 3-5 innings, I wouldn’t invest big money is starting pitchers. I’d allocate more money to acquire bullpen pitchers that aren’t a crapshoot.

 

There aren't many non crapshoot RP'ers.

 

SP'ers seem like less crapshoots, and 4-6 innings is more than most RP'er give.

[a700hitter]

3 innings starts is more of a playoff thing than a regular season thing.

it also seemed to be a September thing.

[Hugh2]

First off 3-5 innings for 30 starts is an average of 120 innings. While the trend is there (starting pitchers not going as long) that’s far from realistic expectations. No manager is happy with 3-4 innings. That’s 5th 6th starter territory.

 

Now, in terms of going after “non crap shoot” bullpen arms. Well, most bullpen arms are a crapshoot. Even high end bullpen arms can be a crapshoot outside a couple years of dominance.

 

Oh well, we all (well most of us) saw the EROD QO coming. Some didn’t like it because they thought he’d accept it, he is not accepting it. Sox will get a team friendly extension or a draft pick. Winning!!!

[Hugh2]

There aren't many non crapshoot RP'ers.

 

SP'ers seem like less crapshoots, and 4-6 innings is more than most RP'er give.

 

Another reason why I should read forward more before posting. You hit the nail on the head, and with more brevity than I.

[moonslav59]

Another reason why I should read forward more before posting. You hit the nail on the head, and with more brevity than I.

 

Spending $18M on 180 innings for ERod will likely do more than spending $6M on 3 RP'ers who might pitch well enough to give 60 IP each.