The Official 2021 ALCS Thread

[Maxbialystock]

The Dodgers head home with a chance to turn the tide on the series. The Braves did their job in securing their home field advantage. Remember last year, the Braves were up 3-1 on the Dodgers and lost the series

 

Interesting. The Dodgers are supposed to have better pitching and better hitting.

[Maxbialystock]

Braves up 2-0 in the series. The Dodgers have their hands full.. they can’t hit.

 

Just the Bruins, Pats, and Sox? No Celtics? I starting watching them and the NBA when they had Sharman and Cousy but not yet Russell, KC, and Sam. The Celtics and Lakers are tied with 17 championships apiece.

[jacksonianmarch]

As I have said before on the sox, they have been playing over their heads all year. That is a credit to the manager. They are winning despite not having good pitching, defense or baserunning. What they are doing is jumping out to leads and then holding on for dear life later in games. If the opponent comes back, they scrape across a run late to win using all means necessary, small ball included.

 

What Cora is doing this post-season and how Bloom put their lineup together is something that will be emulated. The sox have moved Dalbec out of the lineup and put Schwarber in which saves 7% K rate (BD 34%, Schwarbs 27%). The rest of the "meat" of their lineup makes better than average contact.

 

Average this year was 24% for all big leaguers. Look at the lineup

 

Kike 18%

Verdugo 18%

Bogey 18%

Martinez 23%

Schwarber 27%

Devers 21%

Vazquez 17%

Renfroe 22%

 

Fact is, the sox were 20th in walk rate yet were second in slugging and 3rd in wOBA. Sox were also 11th best in K rate in the bigs. It is not all about the walks. Yanks were a lineup of guys who hit homers, walked and K'd. Sox are showing that an approach of guys who make contact and can drive the ball out of the park is FAR better than waiting on 2 walks and a dong.

[mvp 78]

That's you get for switching things up when playoff time gets here. Managers try to get cute and bring in their starters in the game. It's mind blown so far on how many SP has made it through 5IP in these playoffs. You can count them in one hand

 

It just really shows the value of Alex Cora. The game speed up, but he's ready for it.

[mvp 78]

The only significant difference between the American and National leagues is the use of the DH. That should mean teams more run scoring in the American league and greater valuing of each run in the National. It appears both the Braves and Dodgers have superior pitching staffs when compared to the Astros and Sox. In addition, both teams have more speed than the Sox and steal given any opportunity. If we get that far, then be prepared for their base running. We are a relatively slow team that needs to string together hits or crush the ball. One difference between the teams in park configuration. Fenway is the weirdest of the 4 and is the only one likely to see colder weather during the series.

 

IDK, Houston is a pretty weird ballpark.

[moonslav59]

One could argue our offense under achieved, this season.

 

Only two guys (Kike & Renfroe) had career highs- both in their primes, and both had similar OPS numbers in previous years.

 

Several players moving towards prime had better seasons before 2021. Verdugo, Vaz, Marwin, Cordero, Santana, and to some extent Bogey and Devers were all expected to do better than they did.

[mvp 78]

ISO:

1 TOR

2 ATL

3 SFG

4 BOS

5 TBR

6 LAD

 

Those are six pretty good teams.

[mvp 78]

wOBA

1 TOR

2 HOU

3 BOS

4 SFG

5 CHW

[moonslav59]

IDK, Houston is a pretty weird ballpark.

 

It's not as freaky with the hill and flagpole in CF taken out.

[mvp 78]

It's not as freaky with the hill and flagpole in CF taken out.

 

Weird bullpen bump out in RCF. LF is probably the biggest mess in MLB. Short porch bump out with a medium sized wall, abruptly angles back in LCF which still has some weird pillars to deal with. Modern facilities should just not be quirky like this.

[moonslav59]

Weird bullpen bump out in RCF. LF is probably the biggest mess in MLB. Short porch bump out with a medium sized wall, abruptly angles back in LCF which still has some weird pillars to deal with. Modern facilities should just not be quirky like this.

 

Agreed, but that hill & flagpole was super weird.

 

I'd say it's second to Fenway, now.

 

Yankee stadiums short RF and super deep left-center field makes it a bit quirky, too.

[Bellhorn04]

Interesting. The Dodgers are supposed to have better pitching and better hitting.

 

This postseason is shaping up as a good one for the 'playoffs are a crapshoot' argument.

[moonslav59]

This postseason is shaping up as a good one for the 'playoffs are a crapshoot' argument.

 

It sure is.

 

I always felt the AL was up for grabs due to serious flaws in every team, but I was sure the winner of the LA-SF game was going to the WS. (It's not over, yet.)

[mvp 78]

This postseason is shaping up as a good one for the 'playoffs are a crapshoot' argument.

 

It seems that way more so in the NL.

 

NL WC teams:

97 Marlins (won WS)

00 Mets (lost WS)

02 Giants (lost WS)

03 Marlins (won WS)

05 Astros (lost WS)

07 Rockies (lost WS)

11 Cardinals (won WS)

14 Giants (won WS)

19 Nats (won WS)

 

Only 4 AL WC teams made the WS, 2 of which won (02 Angels and 04 Sox).

[YastrzemskI]

Just the Bruins, Pats, and Sox? No Celtics? I starting watching them and the NBA when they had Sharman and Cousy but not yet Russell, KC, and Sam. The Celtics and Lakers are tied with 17 championships apiece.

 

I lost interest in basketball in the early 90s. Just don’t care about it. Magic retired, Bird, Thomas, Barkley etc.. I can’t remember the last time I even caught a glimpse of a game. Not for me.

[mvp 78]

I lost interest in basketball in the early 90s. Just don’t care about it. Magic retired, Bird, Thomas, Barkley etc.. I can’t remember the last time I even caught a glimpse of a game. Not for me.

 

The game really changed in the 90's with all the iso ********. Teams stopped running up and down the court. The action really slowed down. Getting through the last two minutes of a game can be excruciating with all of the fouls. Basketball is most fun when there is lots of ball movement and teams are working the whole length of the floor. For a game that has the ability to be so fast paced, it can crawl like a turtle for lengthy stretches. It's the difference between wide open hockey and those 90's NJ Devils teams. Yuck.

 

I watched a ton of basketball up until about 10 years ago. At some point, the downsides of excessive ticky tack foul calls and everyone trying to be like Mike just wore on me as a fan. Jordan was the greatest basketball player of all time. Guys like Kobe were just dollar store versions. I've tried to get into the younger C's team, but the game just isn't for me.

 

At one point, I would have ranked it Sox > C's > Pats > Bruins, but now I'm a Sox > Bruins > Pats > C's. Maybe the C's and Bruins just flip flopped positions because they play over the same stretch of time and are basically competing for viewership.

[sk7326]

It seems that way more so in the NL.

 

NL WC teams:

97 Marlins (won WS)

00 Mets (lost WS)

02 Giants (lost WS)

03 Marlins (won WS)

05 Astros (lost WS)

07 Rockies (lost WS)

11 Cardinals (won WS)

14 Giants (won WS)

19 Nats (won WS)

 

Only 4 AL WC teams made the WS, 2 of which won (02 Angels and 04 Sox).

 

and that misses the 2006 Cardinals who were an 83 win team!

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

I lost interest in basketball in the early 90s. Just don’t care about it. Magic retired, Bird, Thomas, Barkley etc.. I can’t remember the last time I even caught a glimpse of a game. Not for me.

 

They lost me when the super teams were being put together by the players and it became professional wrestling, when you knew who would be in the finals before the first ball was in play. I know that was the case with the Bulls but later I had had enough. Not crazy about how the game is played today, with so many teams lining 5 at the 3pt line and taking turns jacking up 3's or going one on one. I miss the low post game, a game when you knew you would take a beating if you drove to the lane. Now it's wide open. And then there's football, I find 40 short passes a game to be terribly boring.

[mvp 78]

and that misses the 2006 Cardinals who were an 83 win team!

 

They won their division, so they were a presumptive favorite.

[mvp 78]

They lost me when the super teams were being put together by the players and it became professional wrestling' date=' when you knew who would be in the finals before the first ball was in play. I know that was the case with the Bulls but later I had had enough. Not crazy about how the game is played today, with so many teams lining 5 at the 3pt line and taking turns jacking up 3's or going one on one. I miss the low post game, a game when you knew you would take a beating if you drove to the lane. Now it's wide open. And then there's football, I find 40 short passes a game to be terribly boring.[/quote']

 

Yeah, that "taking my talents to South Beach" nonsense really killed the illusion for me.

 

College football is a much better product right now than the NFL.

[sk7326]

Over this century's world series winners

 

2000: Yankees won 87 games (8th among playoff teams)

2001: Diamondbacks won 92 games (6th)

2002: Angels won 99 games (4th)

2003: Marlins won 91 games (6th)

2004: Red Sox won 98 games (3rd)

2005: White Sox won 99 games (2nd)

2006: Cardinals won 83 games (8th)

2007: Red Sox won 96 games (T-1st)

2008: Phillies won 92 games (6th)

2009: Yankees won 103 games (1st)

2010: Giants won 92 games (5th)

2011: Cardinals won 90 games (8th)

2012: Giants won 94 games (T-4th)

2013: Red Sox won 97 games (T-1st)

2014: Giants won 88 games (T-8th)

2015: Royals won 95 games (3rd)

2016: Cubs won 103 games (1st)

2017: Astros won 101 games (3rd)

2018: Red Sox won 108 games (1st)

2019: Nationals won 93 games (8th)

 

Last year the Dodgers had the best record in the league - but let's set that aside for obvious reasons.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I don't know why Roberts took out that dude who was throwing 100+ MPH heat for Jansen. I know Jansen is a quality pitcher but that guy seemed difficult to hit, the move seemed unnecessary and when it was made I thought it was a benefit to the Braves. The ball off Jansen was hit very hard, whereas the other dude wasn't giving up hard contact.

 

Also, as good Seager is, geez, you have to knock that ball down as priority number one. If you knock the ball down and the guy is safe at first, who cares, you still have two outs with runners on first and third, but to let that ball trickle into CF was unacceptable.

 

Oh man, can the Braves really win this? The Braves were up 2-0 on the Dodgers last year and still lost.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't know why Roberts took out that dude who was throwing 100+ MPH heat for Jansen. I know Jansen is a quality pitcher but that guy seemed difficult to hit, the move seemed unnecessary and when it was made I thought it was a benefit to the Braves. The ball off Jansen was hit very hard, whereas the other dude wasn't giving up hard contact.

 

Graterol faced 3 RH hitters. Rosario and Freeman are LH hitters. Jansen must be better against LH hitters.

 

It almost seems like Dave Roberts is freaking out a bit with all the pitching deployments. One thing that was interesting was that Roberts said the pitching lineup in Game 5 against the Giants was not entirely his decision, that he was just 'one of the voices'.

 

It'll make for nice second-guessing fodder if the Braves can somehow win this.

[mvp 78]

Graterol faced 3 RH hitters. Rosario and Freeman are LH hitters. Jansen must be better against LH hitters.

 

It almost seems like Dave Roberts is freaking out a bit with all the pitching deployments. One thing that was interesting was that Roberts said the pitching lineup in Game 5 against the Giants was not entirely his decision, that he was just 'one of the voices'.

 

It'll make for nice second-guessing fodder if the Braves can somehow win this.

 

Jansen 547 OPS vs LHB.

 

Graterol 967 OPS vs LHB.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Jansen 547 OPS vs LHB.

 

Graterol 967 OPS vs LHB.

 

Interesting. It would be hard to not go with the numbers in this instance.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Graterol faced 3 RH hitters. Rosario and Freeman are LH hitters. Jansen must be better against LH hitters.

 

It almost seems like Dave Roberts is freaking out a bit with all the pitching deployments. One thing that was interesting was that Roberts said the pitching lineup in Game 5 against the Giants was not entirely his decision, that he was just 'one of the voices'.

 

It'll make for nice second-guessing fodder if the Braves can somehow win this.

 

It's always been this way with Roberts and the Dodgers. That's why they keep extending him -- not because his teams always contend, because the organization assembles the roster; but because he always does what he's told. Unlike, for example, the Cardinals' ex-manager who guided a .500 team on August 10 to a 34-16 finish and a Wild Card, recently fired for "philosophical differences."

 

Red Sox fans should still be thankful for 2018 when LA ordered Roberts to bench his top three home run hitters in the World Series because they were lefty sticks and Boston started Sale, Price and ERod in four of five games.

[Bellhorn04]

Red Sox fans should still be thankful for 2018 when LA ordered Roberts to bench his top three home run hitters in the World Series because they were lefty sticks and Boston started Sale, Price and ERod in four of five games.

 

That requires a bit of detail.

 

Platooning a guy like Joc Pederson as they did made sense. He mashed RH pitching and was helpless against LH pitching.

[moonslav59]

Over this century's world series winners

 

2000: Yankees won 87 games (8th among playoff teams)

2001: Diamondbacks won 92 games (6th)

2002: Angels won 99 games (4th)

2003: Marlins won 91 games (6th)

2004: Red Sox won 98 games (3rd)

2005: White Sox won 99 games (2nd)

2006: Cardinals won 83 games (8th)

2007: Red Sox won 96 games (T-1st)

2008: Phillies won 92 games (6th)

2009: Yankees won 103 games (1st)

2010: Giants won 92 games (5th)

2011: Cardinals won 90 games (8th)

2012: Giants won 94 games (T-4th)

2013: Red Sox won 97 games (T-1st)

2014: Giants won 88 games (T-8th)

2015: Royals won 95 games (3rd)

2016: Cubs won 103 games (1st)

2017: Astros won 101 games (3rd)

2018: Red Sox won 108 games (1st)

2019: Nationals won 93 games (8th)

 

Last year the Dodgers had the best record in the league - but let's set that aside for obvious reasons.

 

Since the WC game was added in 2012, a top 4 team has won 6 of 8 times- 7 of 9, if you count 2020.

 

If it was totally random, you'd expect 4 out of 8 wins by top 4 teams not 6.

 

The weird thing is no 5, 6 or 7th ranked team won. (Only 2 have won in the last 20-21 years.

[Bellhorn04]

Since the WC game was added in 2012, a top 4 team has won 6 of 8 times- 7 of 9, if you count 2020.

 

If it was totally random, you'd expect 4 out of 8 wins by top 4 teams not 6.

 

The weird thing is no 5, 6 or 7th ranked team won. (Only 2 have won in the last 20-21 years.

 

2010-2015 were very crapshooty.

 

2016-2020 were not crapshooty.

[moonslav59]

That requires a bit of detail.

 

Platooning a guy like Joc Pederson as they did made sense. He mashed RH pitching and was helpless against LH pitching.

 

The others, that year:

 

Bellinger

.880 v .681

 

Muncy

1.001 v .891

 

The replacements:

Chris Taylor .754 v LHP

David Freese .876

Kike .780

 

Muncy had started just 19 games vs lefties, all year. It's not like a big change was made. (80 vs RHPs)

 

The Bellinger call was not in line with the regular season, despite his worse splits.

 

Freese (.830), Kike (.806 and a big HR) & Taylor (.775) did okay in the playoffs.