The Official 2021 ALCS Thread

[moonslav59]

Sox should go for high upside guys. With the Sox current roster construction, they need guys that can throw lots of k's. Greinke is basically a ground ball pitcher who would have a good FIP here, but his ERA would suffer with the cement shoes in the IF.

 

Good point.

 

I'd still rather have a guy like Greinke at $14-16M than the 2021 Richards and Perez at $16M combined.

[mvp 78]

Good point.

 

I'd still rather have a guy like Greinke at $14-16M than the 2021 Richards and Perez at $16M combined.

 

Well, yeah. I like notin's idea of looking into some younger arms though.

[moonslav59]

Well, yeah. I like notin's idea of looking into some younger arms though.

 

I do think a trade makes more sense.

 

As you know, I'm not high on Stroman for what I think he'll get.

 

I'd be willing to trading Casas or Dalbec plus Downs, even with his stock lowered or Duran for the right young pitcher. (I'd want 3 years of team control or an extension as part of a deal. I guess 2 years would be okay for Dalbec and Downs.)

[mvp 78]

I do think a trade makes more sense.

 

As you know, I'm not high on Stroman for what I think he'll get.

 

I'd be willing to trading Casas or Dalbec plus Downs, even with his stock lowered or Duran for the right young pitcher. (I'd want 3 years of team control or an extension as part of a deal. I guess 2 years would be okay for Dalbec and Downs.)

 

I'm not sure Casas has maximized his potential trade value yet. I don't think Bloom would dump him this early.

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure Casas has maximized his potential trade value yet. I don't think Bloom would dump him this early.

 

He's nearly ML ready. True, he could explode, next year and see his value rise, but he may not.

 

I only mentioned Casas, because we have Dalbec and may bring Scwarber back. Maybe Dalbec can play OF, but we have the OF locked up for 2022, too. (Kike is a FA after 2022.)

 

Downs and Duran might have lower trade value, right now.

 

Dalbec is not going to get us a quality young arm by himself.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

He's nearly ML ready. True, he could explode, next year and see his value rise, but he may not.

 

I only mentioned Casas, because we have Dalbec and may bring Scwarber back. Maybe Dalbec can play OF, but we have the OF locked up for 2022, too. (Kike is a FA after 2022.)

 

Downs and Duran might have lower trade value, right now.

 

Dalbec is not going to get us a quality young arm by himself.

 

Based on evaluators across the industry -- and not just the Boston PR dept. trying to contrive value and interest -- Casas looks like a future, big-league, heart-of-the-order regular. You don't trade a guy like that for a young pitcher, who even if he's a star, only plays every five days. A Casas trade would have to be a blockbuster, with many moving parts, including another sure-thing position player coming back.

[moonslav59]

Based on evaluators across the industry -- and not just the Boston PR dept. trying to contrive value and interest -- Casas looks like a future, big-league, heart-of-the-order regular. You don't trade a guy like that for a young pitcher, who even if he's a star, only plays every five days. A Casas trade would have to be a blockbuster, with many moving parts, including another sure-thing position player coming back.

 

I've never bought into the everyday player vs a pitcher argument. Top SP'er often face over 750 batters a year, sometimes over 800. That's worth more than 650, even if they are all bunched up into 32 games.

 

Because casas looks to be everything you said he might be, his trade value is high enough to bring back some excellent value.

 

I'm not saying I want to trade him, and I'm not for handing him away for a 2 year ab pitcher, but with Dalbec looking pretty good, he might be our best hope for getting top quality pitching at a low financial cost.

 

Getting a low cost pitcher gives Bloom a ton of flexibility with the budget to add more top quality pitching and even explore going for Semien/Baez or bringing back Schwarber (or even both!)

[notin]

Houston is his current employer. Greinke is pitching today.

 

I assumed they meant Scherzer, not Greinke

[mvp 78]

I assumed they meant Scherzer, not Greinke

 

Makes sense since I believe Scherzer is durable and good, but Greinke is not.

[moonslav59]

Makes sense since I believe Scherzer is durable and good, but Greinke is not.

 

Their contract costs will reflect these differing uncertainty factors.

[sk7326]

Based on evaluators across the industry -- and not just the Boston PR dept. trying to contrive value and interest -- Casas looks like a future, big-league, heart-of-the-order regular. You don't trade a guy like that for a young pitcher, who even if he's a star, only plays every five days. A Casas trade would have to be a blockbuster, with many moving parts, including another sure-thing position player coming back.

 

The 5-days thing argument doesn't make sense to me given the outsized influence a pitcher has on the game compared to any specific regular. THAT SAID, the extreme variability in health outcomes for young pitchers compared to position players very much is a reason to be hesitant about this sort of deal.

 

THAT SAID (again!), teams want quality arms in the system despite the high variance in medical outcomes.

[notin]

Based on evaluators across the industry -- and not just the Boston PR dept. trying to contrive value and interest -- Casas looks like a future, big-league, heart-of-the-order regular. You don't trade a guy like that for a young pitcher, who even if he's a star, only plays every five days. A Casas trade would have to be a blockbuster, with many moving parts, including another sure-thing position player coming back.

 

That also sounds like a scouting report for Jon Signleton. Remember him? Stud Phillies' prospect ranked 4 times by BA, and posted a .941 OPS in AAA at 22. The Phillies dealt him to Houston as part of a package for Hunter Pence. Singleton was then given a huge extension by the Astros before he ever played a single game.

 

He went on to post a .621 OPS in Houston in 420 PA over 2 years and was demoted and spent the next few seasons as a highly-paid minor league 1B who never played in MLB after age 23 and whom retired by age 29.

 

This all went down a few years ago, but Singleton is actually still only 30 years old.

 

Moral: There are no surefire regulars in the minors. I think the Sox should give Casas a chance, but I also think he is tradeable in the right deal. Lars Anderson isn't the only slugging 1B prospect in MLB to turn into a flop at the next level...

[mvp 78]

That also sounds like a scouting report for Jon Signleton. Remember him? Stud Phillies' prospect ranked 4 times by BA, and posted a .941 OPS in AAA at 22. The Phillies dealt him to Houston as part of a package for Hunter Pence. Singleton was then given a huge extension by the Astros before he ever played a single game.

 

He went on to post a .621 OPS in Houston in 420 PA over 2 years and was demoted and spent the next few seasons as a highly-paid minor league 1B who never played in MLB after age 23 and whom retired by age 29.

 

This all went down a few years ago, but Singleton is actually still only 30 years old.

 

Moral: There are no surefire regulars in the minors. I think the Sox should give Casas a chance, but I also think he is tradeable in the right deal. Lars Anderson isn't the only slugging 1B prospect in MLB to turn into a flop at the next level...

 

He was good the 1.5 years after being traded, but started sucking in 2013. I don't remember why though...

 

Houston Astros prospect Jonathan Singleton, a rising star in the organization and the team's first baseman of the future, has been suspended for the first 50 games of the 2013 season for his second violaton of minor league baseball's drug policy.

 

Oh yeah...

[notin]

He was good the 1.5 years after being traded, but started sucking in 2013. I don't remember why though...

 

Houston Astros prospect Jonathan Singleton, a rising star in the organization and the team's first baseman of the future, has been suspended for the first 50 games of the 2013 season for his second violaton of minor league baseball's drug policy.

 

Oh yeah...

 

Interestingly, it was after that suspension that he posted a .941 OPS in AAA at age 22...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

That also sounds like a scouting report for Jon Signleton. Remember him? Stud Phillies' prospect ranked 4 times by BA, and posted a .941 OPS in AAA at 22. The Phillies dealt him to Houston as part of a package for Hunter Pence. Singleton was then given a huge extension by the Astros before he ever played a single game.

 

He went on to post a .621 OPS in Houston in 420 PA over 2 years and was demoted and spent the next few seasons as a highly-paid minor league 1B who never played in MLB after age 23 and whom retired by age 29.

 

This all went down a few years ago, but Singleton is actually still only 30 years old.

 

Moral: There are no surefire regulars in the minors. I think the Sox should give Casas a chance, but I also think he is tradeable in the right deal. Lars Anderson isn't the only slugging 1B prospect in MLB to turn into a flop at the next level...

 

I'm basing my hopes for Casas less on media pundits, and more on the predictions of his Olympic manager, Mike Sciosia, who actually played on and skippered MLB teams to World Series titles. No prospect is a sure thing, but Casas is probably the closest thing to making an impact in Boston since Devers -- and certainly a better bet than guys like Betts, Benintendi and Bradley, when they were on the doorstep... it's because they were all so short.

[sk7326]

I'm basing my hopes for Casas less on media pundits, and more on the predictions of his Olympic manager, Mike Sciosia, who actually played on and skippered MLB teams to World Series titles. No prospect is a sure thing, but Casas is probably the closest thing to making an impact in Boston since Devers -- and certainly a better bet than guys like Betts, Benintendi and Bradley, when they were on the doorstep... it's because they were all so short.

 

He is a really good prospect - though if he projects as a 1B/DH only, it DOES reduce the "indispensibleness".

 

Like for my money, Mayer is the team's top prospect and it's not all that close though he is further from the show.

[mvp 78]

He is a really good prospect - though if he projects as a 1B/DH only, it DOES reduce the "indispensibleness".

 

^^^

 

If he played any other position, his stock would be much higher. Being a 1b only profile is a big ding on his value.

[notin]

I'm basing my hopes for Casas less on media pundits, and more on the predictions of his Olympic manager, Mike Sciosia, who actually played on and skippered MLB teams to World Series titles. No prospect is a sure thing, but Casas is probably the closest thing to making an impact in Boston since Devers -- and certainly a better bet than guys like Betts, Benintendi and Bradley, when they were on the doorstep... it's because they were all so short.

 

And those same pundits glowered over Lars Anderson.

 

I prefer the Spx keep Casas and debut him in MLB some time next season. But I also know there is a chacne is is far from the special player we are being told he is, regardless of the hype he is getting now. And I think you might be rewriting a little history based on subsequent events if you think Casas is more highly-regarded than Benintendi was, since AB was the #1 overall prospect on both BA and MLB.com. And he didn't get that ranking based on his defense...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And those same pundits glowered over Lars Anderson.

 

I prefer the Spx keep Casas and debut him in MLB some time next season. But I also know there is a chacne is is far from the special player we are being told he is, regardless of the hype he is getting now. And I think you might be rewriting a little history based on subsequent events if you think Casas is more highly-regarded than Benintendi was, since AB was the #1 overall prospect on both BA and MLB.com. And he didn't get that ranking based on his defense...

 

And you may be rewriting the Lars Christian Anderson tale -- unless you authored that SI article about him playing guitar (sorry, that's all I really remember about his hype).

 

As for rankings, Casas' peak is yet to come. He already broke the top 20 and will be probably be a top 10 when '22 starts. Watch how fast he climbs in the first month at Polar Park if he goes Postseason Kike.

 

Btw: I don't think Casas is a better prospect than Mayer; just responding to posts about trading him for an arm. Like I said, I'd be interested in an established or projected controllable starting pitcher, but I'd also expect a future big league position player in the deal.

[notin]

And you may be rewriting the Lars Christian Anderson tale -- unless you authored that SI article about him playing guitar (sorry, that's all I really remember about his hype).

 

As for rankings, Casas' peak is yet to come. He already broke the top 20 and will be probably be a top 10 when '22 starts. Watch how fast he climbs in the first month at Polar Park if he goes Postseason Kike.

 

Btw: I don't think Casas is a better prospect than Mayer; just responding to posts about trading him for an arm. Like I said, I'd be interested in an established or projected controllable starting pitcher, but I'd also expect a future big league position player in the deal.

 

Not really.

 

When Anderson was 21, he was ranked #17 by both BA and MLB.com. At the same age, Casas was ranked #44 by BA and #47 by MLB.com.

 

I'd say there was Anderson hype, especially among the prospect evaluating community.

 

(Remember when soxprospects.com used to have the MLB Comparison for prosepcts? They listed Anderson's comp as former AL MVP Justin Morneau.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Not really.

 

When Anderson was 21, he was ranked #17 by both BA and MLB.com. At the same age, Casas was ranked #44 by BA and #47 by MLB.com.

 

I'd say there was Anderson hype, especially among the prospect evaluating community.

 

(Remember when soxprospects.com used to have the MLB Comparison for prosepcts? They listed Anderson's comp as former AL MVP Justin Morneau.)

 

Now there's a name that overlapped two distinct decades this century -- Morneau, a shooting star in the mold of stud players who peaked in the infamous 00s, guys that were for some reason (cough, testing), never the same when they reached the deflated age of 30. Travis Haffner, Grady Sizemore, Richard Hildago, Morneau. More? No!

 

Our Lars was no Michelin Man, though. He was said to be an eclectic sort, with lots of interests besides violently hitting a moving projectile with a club. After the US, he played pro ball in Japan, Australia and Germany. Then he became a partner in the Birdman Bats company out of California. So he still has a career in baseball.

[notin]

Now there's a name that overlapped two distinct decades this century -- Morneau, a shooting star in the mold of stud players who peaked in the infamous 00s, guys that were for some reason (cough, testing), never the same when they reached the deflated age of 30. Travis Haffner, Grady Sizemore, Richard Hildago, Morneau. More? No!

 

Our Lars was no Michelin Man, though. He was said to be an eclectic sort, with lots of interests besides violently hitting a moving projectile with a club. After the US, he played pro ball in Japan, Australia and Germany. Then he became a partner in the Birdman Bats company out of California. So he still has a career in baseball.

 

Morneau's career was derailed by a concussion he received while sliding into second base and colliding with an infielder. And much like with Jason Bay, he was never the same player after one.

 

And Sizemore had microfractures in his knee, much like a former Boston 2B, and was just never able to recover properly, despite trying for multiple seasons.

 

Just because it isn't the NFL doesn't mean it's not a physical game. You're largely highlighting players derailed by injury and labeling it PED usage. Hafner (who only layed 4 full seasons) and Hidalgo had a lot of injury problems as well. By this logic, Tony Congiliaro was clearly using PED's as well..

[mvp 78]

Not really.

 

When Anderson was 21, he was ranked #17 by both BA and MLB.com. At the same age, Casas was ranked #44 by BA and #47 by MLB.com.

 

I'd say there was Anderson hype, especially among the prospect evaluating community.

 

(Remember when soxprospects.com used to have the MLB Comparison for prosepcts? They listed Anderson's comp as former AL MVP Justin Morneau.)

 

His ceiling was Justin Morneau. He just never got there.

 

Those comps weren't trying to forecast what the player would be, but what the player COULD be if everything broke right.

[notin]

His ceiling was Justin Morneau. He just never got there.

 

Those comps weren't trying to forecast what the player would be, but what the player COULD be if everything broke right.

 

They were always so optimistic. Bottom line is, saying a player has a ceiling of MVP clearly counts as hype...

[mvp 78]

They were always so optimistic. Bottom line is, saying a player has a ceiling of MVP clearly counts as hype...

 

Let me try:

 

1. Casas - Votto

2. Mayer - Cal Ripken Jr

3. Yorke - Jeff Kent

4. Duran - Ellsbury

5. Downs - Didi

6. Bello - Luis Castillo

7. Jimenez - Starling Marte

8. Seabold - Porcello

9. Blaze - Justin Turner

10. Groome - Sidney Ponson

[notin]

Let me try:

 

1. Casas - Votto

2. Mayer - Cal Ripken Jr

3. Yorke - Jeff Kent

4. Duran - Ellsbury

5. Downs - Didi

6. Bello - Luis Castillo

7. Jimenez - Starling Marte

8. Seabold - Porcello

9. Blaze - Justin Turner

10. Groome - Sidney Ponson

 

A lot of serious "best case scenario" there. In reality, how many of those ceilings will be reached? Or even approached?

[moonslav59]

A lot of serious "best case scenario" there. In reality, how many of those ceilings will be reached? Or even approached?

 

Which one has the best chance?

 

Duran>Ellsbury? (just because Ellsbury was not great)

[mvp 78]

A lot of serious "best case scenario" there. In reality, how many of those ceilings will be reached? Or even approached?

 

None of them, that's why it's a best case scenario. Casas probably has the best chance to reach the projected ceiling. Of the 10, Jimenez has the worst chance.

[mvp 78]

Which one has the best chance?

 

Duran>Ellsbury? (just because Ellsbury was not great)

 

Jarren Duran will not get to 30 fWAR in his career. He'll never have a season like Ellsbury did in 2013.

[notin]

None of them, that's why it's a best case scenario. Casas probably has the best chance to reach the projected ceiling. Of the 10, Jimenez has the worst chance.

 

No. Yorke has the worst chance, since his ceiling is to equal one of the greatest offensive second baseman in MLB history, whih is mighty high for a 19yo A baller...