9/28 at O's

[jung]

Of course. I agree. We seemed to be all swinging for more solo HRs.

 

 

Welcome to MLB in the 21st Century.

 

In many cases they were not even swinging at good pitches to hit...again welcome to MLB in the 21st Century.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

if you think a solid RP is all the bullpen needs then you are way overestimating the bullpen. They need a real closer to begin with, and I’m not counting on Whitlock who needed 3-4 days between appearances to be effective, but I don’t see to much else in the bullpen that I would keep.

 

If this wasn't evident over the weekend, consider that the two relievers used by last-place Baltimore were way better than the Red Sox' relievers last night. And not just inducing swings and misses or weak contact, but with their mixed speeds and command of the strike zone.

[moonslav59]

The Sox have a lot more problems then you are seeing, and saying just 4 players could make a massive improvement is wishful thinking.

 

JD

 

E Rod

 

Fred Flintstone Schwaber

 

Renfroe

 

The most important Bogey

 

All of these signing, or not signings staying, or not staying have to be answered before you can do anything. 2 solid starters I agree with, but if you think a solid RP is all the bullpen needs then you are way overestimating the bullpen. They need a real closer to begin with, and I’m not counting on Whitlock who needed 3-4 days between appearances to be effective, but I don’t see to much else in the bullpen that I would keep. Only needing a solid utility man for the infield? You have way overrated the rest of the infield. Wow!

 

I never said we have just 4 problems. I said we can see a massive improvement with 4 very solid acquisitions- none of which can fail.

 

Our defense will still suck, if we get 3 pitchers and a solid infielder and maybe swap out Schwarber for JD, somehow. Replace & save money with Vaz and Plawecki going elsewhere.

 

 

We'll still be on pins and needles with Dalbec's slumps, Arroyo's health, Vaz's game-calling and much more, but in my opinion, this is a lock playoff team, next year and probably a top 3-4 contender:

 

Scherzer

Sale

Eovaldi

Greinke

Pivetta

Seabold

 

Houck

Whitlock

Barnes

Ottavino

Taylor

DHern

Sawamura

Brasier/Valdez/Austin/Bazardo/Feltman

 

1. Kike CF

2. Verdugo/Renfroe LF/RF

3. Devers 3B

4. Bogey SS

5. Schwarber DH

6. Dalbec 1B

7. Renfroe/Verdugo RF/LF

8. Arroyo/Iggy 2B

8. Pina/Wong-RHern

 

This is pie-in-the sky, but maybe we can come close to this, and yes, 4 players can make a huge difference.

 

After 2022, we work on the D and see Casas and maybe others helping out.

[Old Red]

If this wasn't evident over the weekend, consider that the two relievers used by last-place Baltimore were way better than the Red Sox' relievers last night. And not just inducing swings and misses or weak contact, but with their mixed speeds and command of the strike zone.

 

Robles has been Cora’s first guy out of the BP lately. That is how bad the BP is.

[moonslav59]

Welcome to MLB in the 21st Century.

 

In many cases they were not even swinging at good pitches to hit...again welcome to MLB in the 21st Century.

 

Indeed, and it's not just us.

 

Can people take a look at the Jays and tell me they are doing better?

[mvp 78]

Indeed, and it's not just us.

 

Can people take a look at the Jays and tell me they are doing better?

 

Sure thing.

 

Swept the A's

Swept the Yankees in a 4 game series

Took 3 of 4 at Orioles

Played .500 vs the Rays in 2 series

Went 4-3 against the Twins

Lost 1 game to the Yankees

 

I'd say that looks better than what the Sox have done in September.

[Old Red]

Indeed, and it's not just us.

 

Can people take a look at the Jays and tell me they are doing better?

 

You are always worrying what other teams are doing, and wondering why other teams deserve the playoffs more than the Sox. Right now the Yankees are a better team, and Toronto has a better lineup also right now. At the moment right now is all that matters, and right now the Red Sox are playing like a little league team.

[mvp 78]

If this wasn't evident over the weekend, consider that the two relievers used by last-place Baltimore were way better than the Red Sox' relievers last night. And not just inducing swings and misses or weak contact, but with their mixed speeds and command of the strike zone.

 

Diplan was hittable.

 

Krehbiel (from the Rays) looked really good. I liked what I saw from him.

 

Sulser, I didn't watch.

[moonslav59]

You are always worrying what other teams are doing, and wondering why other teams deserve the playoffs more than the Sox. Right now the Yankees are a better team, and Toronto has a better lineup also right now. At the moment right now is all that matters, and right now the Red Sox are playing like a little league team.

 

No. I'm just pointing out that when people say we have too many weaknesses to deserve to be in the playoffs, they are implying more than the teams that do deserve it.

 

I know we have a ton of weaknesses, but we still deserve a shot at making the playoffs, because other teams do, too.

 

This whole "right now" rant annoys me. It means nothing, tonight or tomorrow. teams have turned on a dime dozens of times, all year, but suddenly that all must change, now, because the Yanks look great now, and we don't.

 

Look, you might be right. The Yanks might win 4 of the next 5 and we continue playing poorly, but what about the way this season has gone makes you think what you did yesterday matters today and tomorrow.

 

It has been the exemplar for refuting the "recency effect."

[moonslav59]

Sure thing.

 

Swept the A's

Swept the Yankees in a 4 game series

Took 3 of 4 at Orioles

Played .500 vs the Rays in 2 series

Went 4-3 against the Twins

Lost 1 game to the Yankees

 

I'd say that looks better than what the Sox have done in September.

 

Again, why is September a better predictor of the next 5 games than anything else?

 

Why not pick the last 11 games out of your hats?

 

Sox 7-4

TOR 5-6

 

It's all how you want to see things.

 

Yes, we lost 4 straight, and we played like s***.

 

That has nothing to do with today.

[mvp 78]

Again, why is September a better predictor of the next 5 games than anything else?

 

Why not pick the last 11 games out of your hats?

 

Sox 7-4

TOR 5-6

 

It's all how you want to see things.

 

Yes, we lost 4 straight, and we played like s***.

 

That has nothing to do with today.

 

You asked and I made a case. You don't have to agree with it.

[Old Red]

No. I'm just pointing out that when people say we have too many weaknesses to deserve to be in the playoffs, they are implying more than the teams that do deserve it.

 

I know we have a ton of weaknesses, but we still deserve a shot at making the playoffs, because other teams do, too.

 

This whole "right now" rant annoys me. It means nothing, tonight or tomorrow. teams have turned on a dime dozens of times, all year, but suddenly that all must change, now, because the Yanks look great now, and we don't.

 

Look, you might be right. The Yanks might win 4 of the next 5 and we continue playing poorly, but what about the way this season has gone makes you think what you did yesterday matters today and tomorrow.

 

It has been the exemplar for refuting the "recency effect."

 

Many teams in all sports have one championships that was not the best team during the season. Once the playoffs hit lots of times it is who is playing best at the moment, and not who has played best during the year. If the right now rant annoys you the so be it. You are putting all your hopes on the Sox turning on a dime, and all of a sudden becoming a good team again, and I do not. Right now is all that matters, and right now the Sox are not a good team, and the Yankees are.Right now the Sox are fighting for a playoff spot, and the pressure is on, and right now it looks like the Sox can’t handle that pressure. That’s the difference.

[mvp 78]

No. I'm just pointing out that when people say we have too many weaknesses to deserve to be in the playoffs, they are implying more than the teams that do deserve it.

 

I know we have a ton of weaknesses, but we still deserve a shot at making the playoffs, because other teams do, too.

 

This whole "right now" rant annoys me. It means nothing, tonight or tomorrow. teams have turned on a dime dozens of times, all year, but suddenly that all must change, now, because the Yanks look great now, and we don't.

 

Look, you might be right. The Yanks might win 4 of the next 5 and we continue playing poorly, but what about the way this season has gone makes you think what you did yesterday matters today and tomorrow.

 

It has been the exemplar for refuting the "recency effect."

 

The recency effect is "they got swept by the Yankees, I hope they play better against the O's." If they then s*** the bed against the O's, it's not "recency effect" it's "the team is NOT playing well. This team has had wild swing going up and down. Right now they are on a downturn until they play better. Could they turn it around? Yes. Will they? Very uncertain.

 

However, there are signs that this team is NOT built to win in the playoffs: rotation question marks, no closer, bad defense.

[moonslav59]

Many teams in all sports have one championships that was not the best team during the season. Once the playoffs hit lots of times it is who is playing best at the moment, and not who has played best during the year. If the right now rant annoys you the so be it. You are putting all your hopes on the Sox turning on a dime, and all of a sudden becoming a good team again, and I do not. Right now is all that matters, and right now the Sox are not a good team, and the Yankees are.Right now the Sox are fighting for a playoff spot, and the pressure is on, and right now it looks like the Sox can’t handle that pressure. That’s the difference.

 

That's just not true.

 

The Sox swept the Rockies who won like 21 straight to make the playoffs.

 

Most recent records has very little affect on future record- maybe slightly more than overall season record does.

 

This season has been a yo-yo. If you go by trends, one should expect us to win 5 in a row more than lose the next 5.

[moonslav59]

The recency effect is "they got swept by the Yankees, I hope they play better against the O's." If they then s*** the bed against the O's, it's not "recency effect" it's "the team is NOT playing well. This team has had wild swing going up and down. Right now they are on a downturn until they play better. Could they turn it around? Yes. Will they? Very uncertain.

 

However, there are signs that this team is NOT built to win in the playoffs: rotation question marks, no closer, bad defense.

 

Totally uncertain, yes.

 

I'm not projecting wins.

 

I'm refuting the idea that we are destined to lose based on a 4 game sample size or our September 13-10 record.

[Bellhorn04]

Totally uncertain, yes.

 

I'm not projecting wins.

 

I'm refuting the idea that we are destined to lose based on a 4 game sample size or our September 13-10 record.

 

But if we lose tonight, guaranteeing that we lose this series, then we really do deserve to miss the WC game.

[jung]

Indeed, and it's not just us.

 

Can people take a look at the Jays and tell me they are doing better?

 

Nope....I don't think I can find a single team particularly in the AL that is doing better. These issues are endemic to the way the game is played today.

 

Some teams field better than others and that is the only area where I find some teams have not sacrificed in order to play the game the way it is played today. The Astros come to mind as a team that will field us into the ground if we meet them in the post season. In fact every other AL team we might face will field us into the ground other than the Yankees and maybe the Jays. If you don't care about fielding, you will cobble a team that fields like crap. It ain't rocket science.

 

Even the best Pitchers in the game today with few exceptions are almost totally reliant on getting batters to chase pitches outside the zone in order to generate outs and virtually every hitter down to the 170lb soaking wet 2nd baseman is trying to crank the ball over the fence just about all the time. The issues are virtually endemic to the 21st Century game.

Edited September 29, 2021 by jung

[mvp 78]

Totally uncertain, yes.

 

I'm not projecting wins.

 

I'm refuting the idea that we are destined to lose based on a 4 game sample size or our September 13-10 record.

 

We are not destined to lose, but it seems more likely when the team is not playing well.

[mvp 78]

But if we lose tonight, guaranteeing that we lose this series, then we really do deserve to miss the WC game.

 

If they can't go 4-2 over the last 6 games, they deserve to miss the WC game.

[Bellhorn04]

Nope....I don't think I can find a single team particularly in the AL that is doing better. These issues are endemic to the way the game is played today.

 

Some teams field better than others and that is the only area where I find some teams have not sacrificed in order to play the game the way it is played today. The Astros come to mind as a team that will field us into the ground if we meet them in the post season. In fact every other AL team we might face will field us into the ground other than the Yankees and maybe the Jays. If you don't care about fielding, you will cobble a team that fields like crap. It ain't rocket science.

 

Even the best Pitchers in the game today with few exceptions are almost totally reliant on getting batters to chase pitches outside the zone in order to generate outs and virtually every hitter down to the 170lb soaking wet 2nd baseman is trying to crank the ball over the fence just about all the time. The issues are virtually endemic to the 21st Century game.

 

But if every single hitter is trying to hit home runs, it follows that fielding isn't as important any more.

[Old Red]

That's just not true.

 

The Sox swept the Rockies who won like 21 straight to make the playoffs.

 

Most recent records has very little affect on future record- maybe slightly more than overall season record does.

 

This season has been a yo-yo. If you go by trends, one should expect us to win 5 in a row more than lose the next 5.

 

Like I’ve said many times that once you get into the post season that head to head is all that matters. Did any of those 21 wins come against the Red Sox? The Rockies also had a long layoff, and the Red Sox were a damm good team at that time. You can look at it however you want, but there are reasons why the Red Sox aren’t a good team at the moment compared to when they were leading the division, which seems like years ago. The bullpen has been worn to a frazzle, by the inept starters who can’t go 6, and haven’t for a long time. The Sox have no closer when at earlier in the season they did. Whitlock, Otto, and Barnes at one time we’re pitching pretty good when they were in first, but not no more. That is not going to change on a whim. The bats can be better, and the defense can be adequate, but this just isn’t the same team that played earlier in the season, and at the moment there is not player you can count on.

[Old Red]

But if we lose tonight, guaranteeing that we lose this series, then we really do deserve to miss the WC game.

 

You keep thinking the Sox are the same team that was in first place the first half of the season. They are not, and neither are the Yankees. The Yankees got better, and Toronto got better. The Sox did not, so don’t think the Sox can just turn it around.

[moonslav59]

Like I’ve said many times that once you get into the post season that head to head is all that matters. Did any of those 21 wins come against the Red Sox? The Rockies also had a long layoff, and the Red Sox were a damm good team at that time. You can look at it however you want, but there are reasons why the Red Sox aren’t a good team at the moment compared to when they were leading the division, which seems like years ago. The bullpen has been worn to a frazzle, by the inept starters who can’t go 6, and haven’t for a long time. The Sox have no closer when at earlier in the season they did. Whitlock, Otto, and Barnes at one time we’re pitching pretty good when they were in first, but not no more. That is not going to change on a whim. The bats can be better, and the defense can be adequate, but this just isn’t the same team that played earlier in the season, and at the moment there is not player you can count on.

 

Again, I can't disagree more.

 

Head-to-head means very little in the playoffs, and we aare 10-9 v the Yanks and Rays. We are 4-3 against the M's.

 

I'm not arguing we look like we suck "at the moment." My point is, and the season trends back me up, is that what anyone has done in the last 4 games means squat.

 

It does not define who you will be in the next 4-5.

 

Why do you and other keep clinging to this notion after being continually proven wrong, all year long?

[jung]

But if every single hitter is trying to hit home runs, it follows that fielding isn't as important any more.

 

I would agree with that but not to the point where you are piss poor at fielding as a team. We are truly piss poor.

 

The Astros have hit one more HR than we have on the season to date, yet are miles ahead of us in fielding stats. The Astros have scored more runs than we have scored but only 3% more runs with both teams well up in the rankings for runs scored. In other words, just based on the numbers, the Astros have not scarified fielding to hit HR's or to score runs generally.

[moonslav59]

I would agree with that but not to the point where you are piss poor at fielding as a team. We are truly piss poor.

 

The Astros have hit one more HR than we have on the season to date, yet are miles ahead of us in fielding stats. The Astros have scored more runs than we have scored but only 3% more runs with both teams well up in the rankings for runs scored. In other words, just based on the numbers, the Astros have not scarified fielding to hit HR's or to score runs generally.

 

If I had to bet we lose the playoff berth on one thing, it would be an error or non play in the last inning- not going down 1-2-3 or a RP'er letting up a granny while up 3.

[Bellhorn04]

If I had to bet we lose the playoff berth on one thing, it would be an error or non play in the last inning- not going down 1-2-3 or a RP'er letting up a granny while up 3.

 

Don't leave out scoring 2-3 runs a game!

[Old Red]

Again, I can't disagree more.

 

Head-to-head means very little in the playoffs, and we aare 10-9 v the Yanks and Rays. We are 4-3 against the M's.

 

I'm not arguing we look like we suck "at the moment." My point is, and the season trends back me up, is that what anyone has done in the last 4 games means squat.

 

It does not define who you will be in the next 4-5.

 

Why do you and other keep clinging to this notion after being continually proven wrong, all year long?

 

Season records do not mean anything once the post season starts, so if you want to cling on the Sox we’re 10-9 against the Yankees go for it, but I don’t think it makes the Red Sox feel any better. What you don’t seem to get is the Red Sox aren’t the same team as they were earlier in the season, and can’t just turn it on, and get better again. You seem to be the one clinging on thinking the Sox are better than they are. You keep thinking the Sox right now are as good as when they were beating up on the Yankees, and won their first 7 games against them. THEY ARE NOT, so who is the one clinging? You are.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

the season trends back me up, is that what anyone has done in the last 4 games means squat.

 

 

The only part I disagree with is that if a bullpen is toast from overuse -- that results in actual sore elbows, rotator cuffs or pectorals (who here really knows what ails Barnes) -- then bad recent effects are not random. In baseball lore, a good performance from a starting pitcher can be a famous or infamous momentum shifter, partially from preventing tired relievers from returning to the mound. At least that's my best hope for winning this series, via efforts from Eovaldi and Pivetta..

[vegasbob]

It's been a remarkable up and down season. More and longer ups than downs, but way too many downs to stomach.

 

It has been a fun season to watch, and the fact that we are still caring with 5 games to go, is a good feeling, for me, anyway. I can't speak for the many that seem to prefer we lose and "get it over with."

 

I would never advocate "lose and get it over with" . The point of the game is to win, which sometimes takes extraordinary efforts by the full team. I think during the post A-S part of the season , now concluding, there have been some opportunities to put the race away, and the team failed to do so. The recent 7 game win streak raised hopes and erased doubts once again only rto fall back in the ditch over the last 4. Now they truly need to win all 5 to manage their own fate, which will be a one gamer .

 

The final 12 consecutive outs on a low number of pitches by the O's really set off some "negativity" as you say because MLB level , well paid, proven professionals could not raise their game against a inferior opponent. Did they quit, likely not, just couldn't get the half bunt, bloopers that seem to beat us.

 

A better description in lieu of negativity, might be what difference does it make to get the WC and even win it because this team's talent does not look consistent enough to win the ALDS nor ALDS, much less the WS. So why be too concerned ?

[moonslav59]

Season records do not mean anything once the post season starts, so if you want to cling on the Sox we’re 10-9 against the Yankees go for it, but I don’t think it makes the Red Sox feel any better. What you don’t seem to get is the Red Sox aren’t the same team as they were earlier in the season, and can’t just turn it on, and get better again. You seem to be the one clinging on thinking the Sox are better than they are. You keep thinking the Sox right now are as good as when they were beating up on the Yankees, and won their first 7 games against them. THEY ARE NOT, so who is the one clinging? You are.

 

I'm not clinging to either number. I just brought up the 10-9 to make a point.

 

Do I think some teams just seem to have another team's number? Of course. Does recency have some affect? Sure, maybe a little, but really, you are saying it is virtually all that matters, and that is just plain wrong.

 

I have agreed over and over, the Sox at this moment suck, but my point is that has changed all year long and the odds are, it will again, soon.

 

Just look at the game logs for the yanks, Sox and Jays. They are littered with unexplained reversals of fortune and trends.

 

Of course we aren't the same team as earlier, this year. We added Sale, Schwarber, Iggy, Shaw and a FT Houck. All that hasn't seemed to help improve our record, but even over the last month or two, this team has shown great highs and horrific lows- as have the Yanks and Jays.

 

Can we continue to suck for he next 5 games? Of course we can. Can we turn things around, like we have dozens of times this year and even recently? Of course we can. You seem to act like we are predetermined to fail based on some silly and arbitrary date where we became a different team.

 

Just since mid August, this team has shown the guts to turn things upright after looking doomed.

 

We lost 3 straight to the yanks in mid August then won 6 of the next 8.

Then, we lost 3 straight, including the first 2 to TBR. Immediately, we won the next 2 vs TBR and 2 more for 4 straight wins. Feeling energized, we then flopped again:

We lost 3 straight and 6 of 8, before winning 2 at SEA (not an easy thing to do) on our way to 7 straight wins. Yes, less than a week ago, we had won 7 straight, and now it is impossible to imagine we turn it around, one more time.

 

We've seen 7 flips in about 5 weeks, but one more is impossible to even fathom, to you.

 

Again, I'm not predicting we see one more flip, but I see plenty of reason to hope for one more.

 

I can't see why others are 100% convinced we are doomed.

 

I won't get into other teams, because that upsets you, but they have flipped and flopped about as much as we have over the past 2 months. The Yanks had the biggest flop of any of us- not too long ago, but you are convince they cannot do that again.

 

I'm sure you'll be thrilled to "I told you so," if we continue imploding. It very well might happen.

 

I still like our chances. We have the lead and play weaker teams. That matters as much as "head-to-head" vs a team we don't even play in the next 5 games.

 

 

 

Sorry, but that just sounds absurd to me to completely write off any chance we win 4 or 5 out of the next 5.