A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[moonslav59]

The other Houck/Whitlock

Taylor

Barnes

Brasier

Sawamura

Diekman

Robles

Strahm

Davis

D Hernandez

 

Going into 2021:

 

Barnes

Ottavino

Sawamura

DHern

Taylor

Andriese

Whitlock

Brice

Valdez

(Brasier on IL)

Bazardo was the first guy called up, I think.

[moonslav59]

Is this the 26 man roster, assuming no additions?

 

Rotation: Eovaldi, Pivetta, Hill, Wacha, Houck or Whitlock

Pen: Whitlock or Houck, Barnes, Taylor, Diekman, Brasier, Strahm, Davis, Sawamura

C: Vazquez, Plawecki

1B: Dalbec, Shaw

2B: Arroyo, Arauz

3B: Devers

SS: Bogaerts

LF: Verdugo, Duran

CF: Hernandez

RF: Bradley

DK Martinez

 

IL: Sale & Paxton

 

Key minor leaguers:

Seabold, Winckowski, Crawford, Keller, Bello

DHern, Robles, Holland, Bazardo, Valdez

Wong, R Hernandez

Casas

Y Sanchez

Fitzgerald

Downs

Cordero

Refsnyder

Stewart/Mieses

 

 

[notin]

Is this the 26 man roster, assuming no additions?

 

Rotation: Eovaldi, Pivetta, Hill, Wacha, Houck or Whitlock

Pen: Whitlock or Houck, Barnes, Taylor, Diekman, Brasier, Strahm, Davis, Sawamura

C: Vazquez, Plawecki

1B: Dalbec, Shaw

2B: Arroyo, Arauz

3B: Devers

SS: Bogaerts

LF: Verdugo, Duran

CF: Hernandez

RF: Bradley

DK Martinez

 

IL: Sale & Paxton

 

Key minor leaguers:

Seabold, Winckowski, Crawford, Keller, Bello

DHern, Robles, Holland, Bazardo, Valdez

Wong, R Hernandez

Casas

Y Sanchez

Fitzgerald

Downs

Cordero

Refsnyder

Stewart/Mieses

 

 

 

Think Duran is on the bench?

 

He’s a BA and MLB top 100 prospect. He needs to be playing if not in MLB then in Worcester…

[Old Red]

Think Duran is on the bench?

 

He’s a BA and MLB top 100 prospect. He needs to be playing if not in MLB then in Worcester…

 

Top 100 prospect, or not he has to earn a position, which at this point I don’t think he has, so unless Arroyo gets hurt, which could very well happen I don’t see Duran gets anymore than a bench roll to start the season if that.

[Larry Cook]

Think Duran is on the bench?

 

He’s a BA and MLB top 100 prospect. He needs to be playing if not in MLB then in Worcester…

 

Duran brings a dynamic sorely missing on our roster, pure speed.

 

Given that Bradley can not hit beach balls, let alone base balls anymore, and will be used as a late inning defensive replacement only by June, my guess is Duran needs to be on the 26 and has a chance to be playing regularly by June!

[moonslav59]

Think Duran is on the bench?

 

He’s a BA and MLB top 100 prospect. He needs to be playing if not in MLB then in Worcester…

 

If Arroyo is healthy- I know: big IF- yes. Duran on the bench and Arroyo at 2B, Kike in CF and Verdugo in LF/JBJ in RF.

Maybe Duran & Arroyo work out some sort of platoon with Kike bouncing between CF & 2B.

 

We might also end up seeing Dalbec at 2B and or LF, if either of these two struggle and Casas or Shaw look deserving of ML playing time.

[Larry Cook]

If Arroyo is healthy- I know: big IF- yes. Duran on the bench and Arroyo at 2B, Kike in CF and Verdugo in LF/JBJ in RF.

Maybe Duran & Arroyo work out some sort of platoon with Kike bouncing between CF & 2B.

 

We might also end up seeing Dalbec at 2B and or LF, if either of these two struggle and Casas or Shaw look deserving of ML playing time.

 

I think you guys are over estimating what Bradley brings to the table. His bat is terrible. He is literally frozen stiff by anything pitched inside.

 

He will regress to a late inning defensive replacement type guy! Putrid hitter.

[Old Red]

Duran brings a dynamic sorely missing on our roster, pure speed.

 

Given that Bradley can not hit beach balls, let alone base balls anymore, and will be used as a late inning defensive replacement only by June, my guess is Duran needs to be on the 26 and has a chance to be playing regularly by June!

 

Pure speed is good, but I’d rather see a pure bat.

[Old Red]

I think you guys are over estimating what Bradley brings to the table. His bat is terrible. He is literally frozen stiff by anything pitched inside.

 

He will regress to a late inning defensive replacement type guy! Putrid hitter.

 

Pretty expensive late innings replacement guy. I’m not over estimating nothing about Bradley. I didn’t like the acquisition in the first place prospects, or not.

[moonslav59]

I think you guys are over estimating what Bradley brings to the table. His bat is terrible. He is literally frozen stiff by anything pitched inside.

 

He will regress to a late inning defensive replacement type guy! Putrid hitter.

 

You haven't been reading my posts.

 

IMO, JBJ will start the season as the near FT RF/CF'er.

 

I never said he ends the season as a starter.

[moonslav59]

Is this the line-up?

 

1. Kike CF v L/ 2B v R

2. Devers 3B

3. Bogaerts SS

4. JD DH

5. Verdugo RF v R/ Dalbec v L

6. Dalbec v R/Verdugo LF v L

7. JBJ CF v R/ RF v L

8. Vaz C

9. Duran LF v R/ Arroyo 2B v L

Edited March 20, 2022 by moonslav59

[Old Red]

Is this the line-up?

 

1. Kike CF v L/ 2B v R

2. Devers 3B

3. Bogaerts SS

4. JD DH

5. Verdugo v R/ Dalbec v L

6. Dalbec v R/Verdugo v L

7. JBJ CF v R/ RF v L

8. Vaz C

9. Duran LF v R/ Arroyo 2B v L

 

I think you are moving Kike, and Arroyo around to much at least to start the season, and to much for Duran.

[moonslav59]

I think you are moving Kike, and Arroyo around to much at least to start the season, and to much for Duran.

 

Arroyo is not moving. He's just a platoon at 2B with Kike.

 

Duran might e lucky to play as much as I have him playing, then again, he may earn a FT slot during the season.

 

Kike moved a lot, last year, between 2B and CF. With so many lefty-hitting OF'ers, I think Kike need to be in the OF vs lefties. (I'd prefer he is there FT.)

 

Verdugo does not hit lefties well, and he's the best we got.

[Larry Cook]

Is this the line-up?

 

1. Kike CF v L/ 2B v R

2. Devers 3B

3. Bogaerts SS

4. JD DH

5. Verdugo v R/ Dalbec v L

6. Dalbec v R/Verdugo v L

7. JBJ CF v R/ RF v L

8. Vaz C

9. Duran LF v R/ Arroyo 2B v L

 

So against right handed pitching verdugo plays right field?

[Old Red]

Arroyo is not moving. He's just a platoon at 2B with Kike.

 

Duran might e lucky to play as much as I have him playing, then again, he may earn a FT slot during the season.

 

Kike moved a lot, last year, between 2B and CF. With so many lefty-hitting OF'ers, I think Kike need to be in the OF vs lefties. (I'd prefer he is there FT.)

 

Verdugo does not hit lefties well, and he's the best we got.

 

I know Arroyo is not moving, but I don’t think he’s platooning either, and what Kike did last year doesn’t mean he’ll do the same this year. Having so many lefty hitting outfielders is a big problem that Bloom has created, but we’ll find out soon enough. I’m not counting on Duran at all at least to start.

[moonslav59]

I know Arroyo is not moving, but I don’t think he’s platooning either, and what Kike did last year doesn’t mean he’ll do the same this year. Having so many lefty hitting outfielders is a big problem that Bloom has created, but we’ll find out soon enough. I’m not counting on Duran at all at least to start.

 

So, you think Arroyo will start as the FT 2Bman and Kike as the FT CF'er?

 

That is certainly an equally plausible scenario- maybe even the favorite in odds.

 

I think Cora might want to start the year making more players feel like they are a part of the big show, and giving Duran a shot at earning a bigger role by starting out just hitting vs RHPs.

[moonslav59]

So against right handed pitching verdugo plays right field?

 

Yes, with Duran in LF and Kike at 2B.

 

I should have stated that.

[Old Red]

So, you think Arroyo will start as the FT 2Bman and Kike as the FT CF'er?

 

That is certainly an equally plausible scenario- maybe even the favorite in odds.

 

I think Cora might want to start the year making more players feel like they are a part of the big show, and giving Duran a shot at earning a bigger role by starting out just hitting vs RHPs.

 

Yes, and yes, and if you start Duran against RHP’s who is going to sit? I’m not saying I’m right, and you may be the one who’s right. I wish there were better options like another RH bat in the outfield.

Edited March 20, 2022 by Old Red

[moonslav59]

Yes, and yes, and if you start Duran against RHP’s who is going to sit? I’m not saying I’m right, and you may be the one who’s right.

 

I showed who sits: Arroyo- they guy who has never come close to playing a full season in the bigs.

 

I have no issue with your idea, and it might be the more likely choice.

 

I'm thinking Cora likes to play everybody. He played Mawin and Cordero way too long. He was determined to give Santana more than enough rope, once he could play.

 

I think he gives Arroyo and Duran, both a chance to earn FT status, and it might turn out to not be at the expense of the other, if JBJ shits the bed.

[Old Red]

I showed who sits: Arroyo- they guy who has never come close to playing a full season in the bigs.

 

I have no issue with your idea, and it might be the more likely choice.

 

I'm thinking Cora likes to play everybody. He played Mawin and Cordero way too long. He was determined to give Santana more than enough rope, once he could play.

 

I think he gives Arroyo and Duran, both a chance to earn FT status, and it might turn out to not be at the expense of the other, if JBJ shits the bed.

 

Can Bradley hit?

 

Can Duran hit?

 

Can Arroyo stay healthy? I would just like to know the answer to one of these. Any guess?

[moonslav59]

The 2021 Rotation vs the 2022 Rotation by GS'd

 

Possibility:

 

GS 2021>2022

 

32 Eovaldi 32

31 ERod > *(+10 Sale, +10 Houck, +9 Whitlock,+2 Pivetta= 32)

30 Pivetta 32*

22 Richards 22 Wacha

22 Perez 22 Hill

13 Houck 23*

9 Sale 19*

3 Peacock/Seabold/Craford combined> 12 Whitlock*

 

Of course, we almost certainly will see some starts by one of more of these guys or someone I did not mention: Crawford, Seabold, Winckowski, Bello.

 

[moonslav59]

Can Bradley hit?

 

Can Duran hit?

 

Can Arroyo stay healthy? I would just like to know the answer to one of these. Any guess?

 

All are guesses, and then there's the chance someone gets hurt or craps out and someone else is added to the mix.

 

Those three questions are perhaps the biggest ones to start the season, beyond pitching.

 

Dalbec is maybe 4th.

 

One player that could take up some slack of poor hitting in the OF is Vaz, who was near .800 from 2019-2020, combined, or we could have a blast-off career year from Devers and/or Bogey. Verdugo could also explode. (That's the optimist view.)

[moonslav59]

Money spent on 2022 and beyond, including trades and the Barnes extension that starts in 2022 (not counting arb avoidance signings):

 

JBJ: 22:$9.5M player option, 23:$12M mutual option ($8M buyout) $12M Lux #

Paxton: 1 year/$10M (2022), plus 2023 or 2023-24 options $10M Lux #

Barnes: 22:$7.25M, 23:$7.5M, 24:$8M club option ($2.25M buyout) $9.4M Lux #

Wacha: 1 year/$7M (2022) $7M Lux #

Vaz: 22:$7M club option ($0.25M buyout) $7M Lux #

Hill: 1 year/$5M (2022) #5M Lux #

Diekman: 2 years/$8M (2022-23), plus 2024 club option $4M Lux #

Strahm: 1 year/$3M (2022) $3M Lux #

Robles: ??? Lux # ???

 

That's over $57M for 9 players. (Over $41M on 7 players not counting Vaz and Barnes.)

 

I was hoping we'd spend $40-55M on 4-5 players- not 7.

 

This building the farm and 40 man roster depth strategy era has gone on long enough. This year, it appears we are leaving money on the table, in terms of being significantly under the tax line.

 

 

For argument's sake, let's make a few assumptions. Let's say we could have signed these players for $1M more than what they signed for, and we signed just 3-4 FAs, not 6, and we spent to or close to the lux tax line and not $16M below, like we are at now.

 

Here's one scenario: I welcome yours... (Spend $55-59M lux tax dollars)

 

$23.5M x 6 Javier Baez

$15.6 x 5 ERod

$14.3 x 4 Jon Gray

$5.5M x 2 McHugh

 

[Bellhorn04]

I think you guys are over estimating what Bradley brings to the table. His bat is terrible. He is literally frozen stiff by anything pitched inside.

 

He will regress to a late inning defensive replacement type guy! Putrid hitter.

 

Larry, Talksox posters are familiar with Bradley's issues with the bat.

 

He did hit .283 in the short 2020 season.

[Bellhorn04]

Can't forget there are 3 Wild Card teams this year, like 2020.

[notin]

I think you guys are over estimating what Bradley brings to the table. His bat is terrible. He is literally frozen stiff by anything pitched inside.

 

He will regress to a late inning defensive replacement type guy! Putrid hitter.

 

Bradley isn’t going to be among the league leaders, but he absolutely will bounce back somewhat in 2022. That’s not even a prediction; it’s actually a statistical likelihood…

[Old Red]

Bradley isn’t going to be among the league leaders, but he absolutely will bounce back somewhat in 2022. That’s not even a prediction; it’s actually a statistical likelihood…

 

Is 200 BA a bounce back? Time will tell, but I’m not counting on JBJ to give much more than good D.

[notin]

Is 200 BA a bounce back? Time will tell, but I’m not counting on JBJ to give much more than good D.

 

 

Do you need a spot on accurate projection?

[Bellhorn04]

Do you need a spot on accurate projection?

 

He does. He's the Doubting Thomas of Talksox.

[moonslav59]

He does. He's the Doubting Thomas of Talksox.

 

Like last year, we don't need everything to go right... just enough things to go right or not go too badly.

 

Think of all that went wrong, last year.

 

We got swept by the O's to start the year and lost 2 of 3 in the penultimate series of the season, when winning meant just about everything.

 

Our 3 (Richards) and 4 (Perez) starters flamed out.

 

Barnes burst into flames.

 

Houck went down, seemingly when we needed him the most.

 

Ottavino failed to give us what we needed (1.45 WHIP).

Sawamura gave us about the same WHIP.

We counted on guys like Valdez (1.35 in 40 IP), Andriese (1.768 in 37 IP), Workman (1.900/20), Brice, Weber and others.

 

We counted on Marwin way too much (finished 7th in PAs in April & May)

Cordero & Santana had over 100 PAs in the first half of '21. These three his .583, .497 and .597 in 534 PAs combined.

 

Duran to the rescue (.578 in 82 PAs) did not work as hoped.

 

The expected growth from Verdugo didn't really materialize until the playoffs:

.817 OPS in '19

.844 OPS in '20

.777 OPS in '21

 

Vaz hit .799 from 2019-2020 (710 PAs) but dropped to .659, last year.

 

Arroyo missed most of the season.

 

Although JD bounced back, he was still way below 2014-2019 OPS of .954.

 

While Devers and Bogey both had fine years, Bogey missed some time and dealt with hand issues and Devers started out very slowly. At ages 23 and 27, one might have expected career or near career years in 2021.

 

Dalbec looked like he was 2-3 bad days away from being demoted, before he carried the team on his back for a couple months.

 

Kike was a godsend, but he too, missed significant time.

 

I'm not crying injuries, here. We did better than most teams on the health front, but a lot did go wrong in 2021, yet a few players came through and stepped up their game, when we needed it most. We added Schwarber, Iggy, Shaw, Robles and Davis mid season, and they helped, too.

 

I know there doesn't seem like there is a lot to be optimistic about, right now, and I share in the concern and worries many here have shared, but we don't need everything to go right in 2022, either.