A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[moonslav59]

So why not include Moncada, Kopech and Margot?

 

I said it was an incomplete list. Feel free to add them to it.

[moonslav59]

I like the fact that WAR demonstrates how overrated flashy defense can be.

 

WAR does not penalize or glorify flashy D, but it does reward good to great defenders and penalize poor defenders. (It can actually partially negate a negative WAR, who has a horrific offensive WAR component player. LOL!)

 

The fact is, Bogey's WAR would be a lot better, if his defense was top notch.

 

Iggy's WAR would be a lot lower, if he was a bad defender.

 

Alex Gonzo's offense was actually pretty good- for a SS in those days, but not when he was on the Sox. His offense sucked.

[Bellhorn04]

WAR does not penalize or glorify flashy D, but it does reward good to great defenders and penalize poor defenders. (It can actually partially negate a negative WAR, who has a horrific offensive WAR component player. LOL!)

 

The fact is, Bogey's WAR would be a lot better, if his defense was top notch.

 

Iggy's WAR would be a lot lower, if he was a bad defender.

 

Alex Gonzo's offense was actually pretty good- for a SS in those days, but not when he was on the Sox. His offense sucked.

 

Bottom line, Gonzo and Iggy are about 10 WAR players for their careers. Bogey is at 30 WAR and counting. Offense is much more valuable.

[S5Dewey]

Bottom line, Gonzo and Iggy are about 10 WAR players for their careers. Bogey is at 30 WAR and counting. Offense is much more valuable.

 

Teams have tried that - going into the season thinking they're going to win games 14-11 - and it didn't work out for them. At the same time the teams who have tried to win games 2-1 with great defense and little offense didn't fare much better.

 

IMO there's still a lot to be said for "solid up the middle". Get your best defense up the middle and if you have to sacrifice great defense for solid offense do it at the corners. If a team starts with that principle any great offense they get up the middle and and any great defense they get at the corners are a plus.

 

Of course ideally we'd all like to see an all-star at every position.

[Bellhorn04]

IMO there's still a lot to be said for "solid up the middle". Get your best defense up the middle and if you have to sacrifice great defense for solid offense do it at the corners. If a team starts with that principle any great offense they get up the middle and and any great defense they get at the corners are a plus.

 

But Bogaerts, and the infamous Jeter, seem like good examples of why that may be a fallacy.

[Bellhorn04]

Confession: I'm sort of itching for an argument today. It's been so freaking dull here lately!

[dgalehouse]

You just have to score more runs than your opponent. Doesn't much matter if it's because of hitting or pitching or fielding. Offense or defense or base running .

[moonslav59]

Bottom line, Gonzo and Iggy are about 10 WAR players for their careers. Bogey is at 30 WAR and counting. Offense is much more valuable.

 

I'd take Bogey over both of them combined.

 

It's not even close.

[moonslav59]

But Bogaerts, and the infamous Jeter, seem like good examples of why that may be a fallacy.

 

Exceptions to rule do not make the rule a fallacy.

 

In baseball, there are always exceptions.

[moonslav59]

You just have to score more runs than your opponent. Doesn't much matter if it's because of hitting or pitching or fielding. Offense or defense or base running .

 

On average, I'm not sure a team that scores 850 runs and allows 800 will win more than a team that scores 700 and lets up 650.

[notin]

Confession: I'm sort of itching for an argument today. It's been so freaking dull here lately!

 

 

You almost got your wish with your whole “I don’t understand ‘partially negate’”thing…

[moonslav59]

You almost got your wish with your whole “I don’t understand ‘partially negate’”thing…

 

That was 78

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

For the four Red Sox titles this century, how would you rate the defensive shortstops? My hazy memory relies more on the postseasons, but I'd go: Cabrera, Drew, Bogaerts, Lugo... with the first two definitively better than the last two.

 

One metric that measures defense is dWAR. Here are the four ranked in their championship years during the regular season: Cabrera 1.5, Lugo 0.8, Drew 0.2, Bogaerts 0.1.

[Bellhorn04]

Exceptions to rule do not make the rule a fallacy.

 

In baseball, there are always exceptions.

 

That's true, but in this case the "rule" seems to be purely anecdotal.

[S5Dewey]

But Bogaerts, and the infamous Jeter, seem like good examples of why that may be a fallacy.

 

Well.. does it? Those two are an interesting comparison. Using BR/WAR (and you know how I feel about WAR! LOL):

162 games oWAR dWAR WAR

Jeter 5.7 -0.6 4.2

XBO 5.1 0.1 4.2

 

 

 

According to WAR these to guys are the same person. Jeter and XBo are both statistically weaker on defensive but they make up for it with their offense. I suggest (with no way to prove it) that if their O/D WAR's were reversed, that is if they were (equaly) offensive liabilities but were better defensively that it wouldn't have much bearing on the number of game the Yankees and the Sox win during their tenure.

 

It's still my opinion - as it was years ago - that defense is underrated in WAR or any other metric because it can't take into account what happens after a great play or an error. A great play can prevent several runs from scoring and we've all see an error 'open the floodgates' or cause a pitcher to throw several more pitches which will have an effect later on in the game.

 

So.. to go back to what I said earlier, If I were building a team one of my focuses would be for that team to be 'solid up the middle' because that will prevent more runs from scoring than those people will contribute with their offense. At the same time a team has to make up for that lack of offense somewhere and since corner positions are easier to play I'd take my chances with weaker defense there. Ideally we'd all like to have 10WAR players at every position but we have to make choices.

 

Anyway... that's my good-natured opinion and your results will vary.

[Bellhorn04]

It's still my opinion - as it was years ago - that defense is underrated in WAR or any other metric because it can't take into account what happens after a great play or an error. A great play can prevent several runs from scoring and we've all see an error 'open the floodgates' or cause a pitcher to throw several more pitches which will have an effect later on in the game.

 

I don't disagree with any of that. But I think the same principle applies on offense. A single at-bat that results in a hit or walk can be the turning point in a game and 'open the floodgates' too.

 

What WAR seems to indicate is that offense is more important than fielding simply because of the volume of opportunities. Every single plate appearance can be a difference-maker.

 

Just my take too.

Edited January 16, 2022 by Bellhorn04

[notin]

It's still my opinion - as it was years ago - that defense is underrated in WAR or any other metric because it can't take into account what happens after a great play or an error. A great play can prevent several runs from scoring and we've all see an error 'open the floodgates' or cause a pitcher to throw several more pitches which will have an effect later on in the game.

 

 

Isn’t that also true of offensive stats? None of them differentiate between a hit that starts a rally from a two out single that ultimately leaves the runner stranded.

 

But then no aspects of statistics in any sport or application is meant to handle each individual situation…

[jad]

But then, what happens AFTER you make a play or get a hit should hardly affect your individual stats. To go down that path is to argue simply that the only stat that matters is W/L.

[moonslav59]

For the four Red Sox titles this century, how would you rate the defensive shortstops? My hazy memory relies more on the postseasons, but I'd go: Cabrera, Drew, Bogaerts, Lugo... with the first two definitively better than the last two.

 

One metric that measures defense is dWAR. Here are the four ranked in their championship years during the regular season: Cabrera 1.5, Lugo 0.8, Drew 0.2, Bogaerts 0.1.

 

Lugo was actually a decent fielder, until he hurt his knee (2008?). He had good range, but made too many errors.

 

I'd rate the 2007 Lugo's D as better than the 2018 Bogey D. Close call.

 

Lugo 2007:

0.8 dWAR (BR)

0 DRS

-0.6 UZR/150

 

Bogey 2018:

0.1 dWAR (BR)

-8 DRS

+1.3 UZR/150

 

[notin]

But then, what happens AFTER you make a play or get a hit should hardly affect your individual stats. To go down that path is to argue simply that the only stat that matters is W/L.

 

Exactly.

 

Bad enough many key stats are already very questionable…

[notin]

Lugo was actually a decent fielder, until he hurt his knee (2008?). He had good range, but made too many errors.

 

I'd rate the 2007 Lugo's D as better than the 2018 Bogey D. Close call.

 

Lugo 2007:

0.8 dWAR (BR)

0 DRS

-0.6 UZR/150

 

Bogey 2018:

0.1 dWAR (BR)

-8 DRS

+1.3 UZR/150

 

 

 

That’s the thing about w defensive stats - a lot of times they flew against what we thought we knew.

 

For example, if you hit 100 identical groundballs to two shortstops with the following results:

 

Shortstop A got to 80 out of 100 and made 0 errors.

 

Shortstop B got to all 100 but made 10 errors.

 

Who’s the better defender? Shortstop A and his 1.000 fielding pct.? Or Shortstop B, who made more outs and allowed fewer base runners?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

That’s the thing about w defensive stats - a lot of times they flew against what we thought we knew.

 

For example, if you hit 100 identical groundballs to two shortstops with the following results:

 

Shortstop A got to 80 out of 100 and made 0 errors.

 

Shortstop B got to all 100 but made 10 errors.

 

Who’s the better defender? Shortstop A and his 1.000 fielding pct.? Or Shortstop B, who made more outs and allowed fewer base runners?

 

Ya, but of B's Es, how many allowed the batter to get into scoring position (just assuming none of the balls A missed went for extra bases)?

 

Also, don't forget the unmeasurable Bah... and Ugh! Factors. When A misses so many grounders just out of his limited range, reactions from teammates, management, fans and media usually range from Good try to Bah... (we're just not good enough).

 

But when B boots one, lets it go through the wickets, or heaves it into the box seats, the cry is more abrupt: Ugh!

 

Never underestimate the deflating affects of Ugh!... especially on the poor pitcher. It can even increase opponents' popcorn-eating proclivities.

[notin]

Ya, but of B's Es, how many allowed the batter to get into scoring position (just assuming none of the balls A missed went for extra bases)?

 

Also, don't forget the unmeasurable Bah... and Ugh! Factors. When A misses so many grounders just out of his limited range, reactions from teammates, management, fans and media usually range from Good try to Bah... (we're just not good enough).

 

But when B boots one, lets it go through the wickets, or heaves it into the box seats, the cry is more abrupt: Ugh!

 

Never underestimate the deflating affects of Ugh!... especially on the poor pitcher. It can even increase opponents' popcorn-eating proclivities.

 

The bases is an interesting point.

 

Even if B commits 10 2-base errors and A allows 20 singles for his unreachables, each shortstop is responsible for 20 total bases. Assuming 10 bases = 1 run, both are responsible for 2 runs scored by the opposition…

[moonslav59]

That’s the thing about w defensive stats - a lot of times they flew against what we thought we knew.

 

For example, if you hit 100 identical groundballs to two shortstops with the following results:

 

Shortstop A got to 80 out of 100 and made 0 errors.

 

Shortstop B got to all 100 but made 10 errors.

 

Who’s the better defender? Shortstop A and his 1.000 fielding pct.? Or Shortstop B, who made more outs and allowed fewer base runners?

 

To me, B is the obvious winner.

[moonslav59]

The bases is an interesting point.

 

Even if B commits 10 2-base errors and A allows 20 singles for his unreachables, each shortstop is responsible for 20 total bases. Assuming 10 bases = 1 run, both are responsible for 2 runs scored by the opposition…

 

Can't a SS making a spectacular play also juice up the team and pitcher?

[notin]

Can't a SS making a spectacular play also juice up the team and pitcher?

 

We’re ignoring the emotional aspects. That depends too much on the pitcher…

[notin]

To me, B is the obvious winner.

 

B gets more outs, but 25 years ago, if you looked at their stats and A had a 1.000 fldg pct and B had a .900 fldg pct, would we have reached the same conclusion?

[moonslav59]

B gets more outs, but 25 years ago, if you looked at their stats and A had a 1.000 fldg pct and B had a .900 fldg pct, would we have reached the same conclusion?

 

Yes, because back then, I valued RF/9.

[moonslav59]

We’re ignoring the emotional aspects. That depends too much on the pitcher…

 

I was responding to the "Ugh factor."

[jad]

Wasn't that always the way one defended Frank Malzone in the old days? Oh yes, he makes a lot of errors, but that's because he gets to so many more balls than other 3b. (That should be pretty easy to determine with modern stats: just look at the assist/PO to error ratio.)