A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[mvp 78]

I think you could definitely do a 100 inning reliever. But you're still going to manage him like a starter (sorta). Like, two appearances a week - face 6 to 9 hitters. Now, I should really mess around with OOTP baseball or something to see how it would look in simulated action

 

But that's just kind of a pain in the ass. The reason that you have bullpen guys isn't to save them for twice a week, it's to have them for when you need them, even if it's 4 times in one week.

[Bellhorn04]

But that's just kind of a pain in the ass. The reason that you have bullpen guys isn't to save them for twice a week, it's to have them for when you need them, even if it's 4 times in one week.

 

Right, for these things we like to call 'situations' that crop up regularly and randomly...

[mvp 78]

And oddly enough, the Dodgers are doing the opener thing tonight instead of Urias starting. I don't get it, really.

 

Seems like it worked out ok. The Giants got a few loud outs in the 1st inning though. If it was played in a ballpark that didn't have an expansive RF, they would have certainly taken an early lead.

[mvp 78]

The status of pitching usage in the ML seems to have evolved over the years and more recently.

 

A good start is now 5 or 6 innings with the BP doing 4 innings nightly. Add to that the case where the opener is used for once through the lineup max. Seems to me the BP is getting more stressed these days.

 

There is also a tendency to bring high leverage BP resources into games earlier, should a critical situation develop.

 

Still, it seems desirable to have 5 defined starters and backup available in the minors to come in when the inevitable injuries and sicknesses occur.

 

In the BP, you still want a mix of righties and lefties, although the pitch to three batter rule seems to require decent effectiveness against each. With 8 or 9 in the BP and the need to throw at least 4 innings most nights it seems to be a best practice to use the real firemen in competitive games. How many of the 8 or 9 fit into that category? Probably 4 so they need to be used judiciously. Are 70 innings a year reasonable?

 

If we can win 100 games in a year, one would assume we were competitive in 120. Four innings a night means 480 innings, not counting extra inning. So if we get 280 innings out of our best, there are 200 innings of competitive innings to be covered by our remaining BP. One would hope that there would be a significant contribution from our prospects being cycled through.

 

Just a mind game but I would bet similar thinking would be applied by our coaches and front office.

 

As innings decrease for starters, is there a chance a 4 man rotation comes back?

[mvp 78]

For 2022, we need to sign the dodgers chris Taylor.

 

This guy can play center field for us next year and I think he had a monster year at the plate.

 

Not going to break the bank and the reward is going to be huge,

 

Kiké is fine in CF. The Sox' "problems" are LF/RF/2B/C and some of them aren't really big concerns.

[Nick]

How many pitches do starters throw between their starts?

 

Monday Start 90 pitches

Tuesday off

Wednesday off

Thursday off

Friday off

Saturday Start 90 pitches

 

I've never pitched, don't know anything about pitching. Why can't they throw 25 pitches (say 40-45 counting bullpen) between starts in a real game?

[Bellhorn04]

Seems like it worked out ok. The Giants got a few loud outs in the 1st inning though. If it was played in a ballpark that didn't have an expansive RF, they would have certainly taken an early lead.

 

It did work out, mainly because the pitchers that were at Roberts's disposal are all pretty freakin' good. I'm not sure it produced any advantage.

[Bellhorn04]

How many pitches do starters throw between their starts?

 

Monday Start 90 pitches

Tuesday off

Wednesday off

Thursday off

Friday off

Saturday Start 90 pitches

 

I've never pitched, don't know anything about pitching. Why can't they throw 25 pitches (say 40-45 counting bullpen) between starts in a real game?

 

My guess would be there's a huge difference in how they throw those 25 pitches.

 

But Cora did of course try this to a limited extent in the 2018 postseason. And then you may have heard about this Restgate thing the next year...

[mvp 78]

Stanley may have been the last of the 'rubber arms'.

 

I think Whitlock and Houck probably throw too hard to be able to do anything like that.

 

It's just a different game now in many ways.

 

Leaders in IP - relief only:

2021 - Chad Green 83.2

2019 - Sam Gaviglio 95.2

2018 - Ryan Yarbrough 118.2 (used opener)

2017 - Yusmeiro Petit 87.1

2016 - Brad Hand 89.1

2015 - Dellin Betances 84

2014 - Carlos Torres 92

2013 - Anthony Swarzak 96

2012 - Josh Roenicke 88.2

2011 - Alfredo Aceves 93.0

2010 - Matt Belisle 92.0

2009 - DJ Carrasco 89.1

2008 - JP Howell 89.1

2007 - Heath Bell 93.2

2006 - Scott Proctor 102.1

2005 - Saloman Torres 94.2

2004 - Scott Shields 105.1

2003 - Steve Sparks 107

2002 - Vladimir Nunez 97.2

2001 - Scott Sullivan 103.1

2000 - Scott Sullivan 106.1

1999 - Scott Sullivan 113.2

1998 - Scott Sullivan 102

1997 - Greg Swindell 112

1996 - Mariano Rivera 107.2

1995 - John Doherty 107.1

1993 - Greg Harris 112.1

1992 - Doug Jones 111.2

1991 - Duane Ward 107.1

1990 - Duane Ward 127.2

1989 - Jim Acker 126

1988 - Jeff Robinson 124.1

1987 - Mark Eichhorn 127.2

1986 - Mark Eichhorn 157

1985 - Dan Quisenberry 129

1984 - Willie Hernandez 140.1

1983 - Bob Stanley 145.1

1982 - Bob Stanley 168.1

1980 - Tom Hume 137

 

The last rubber arm was Mark Eichhorn apparently. Also, this is a Scott Sullivan appreciation post.

[mvp 78]

How many pitches do starters throw between their starts?

 

Monday Start 90 pitches

Tuesday off

Wednesday off

Thursday off

Friday off

Saturday Start 90 pitches

 

I've never pitched, don't know anything about pitching. Why can't they throw 25 pitches (say 40-45 counting bullpen) between starts in a real game?

 

Cora used their "bullpen days" as appearances in 2018 playoffs.

[moonslav59]

I don't much see the point in talking about it if it's something they or any other team simply wouldn't do.

 

We might as well talk about getting starters back to 200 innings...

 

Who knows where the evolution of the pen is heading?

 

If anyone might try something out of the box, it might be Bloom & Cora.

 

However, I seriously doubt anyone is even talking about what I suggested might be a way to get the most out of Houck and Whitlock. The reason I'm thinking like this is that they both seem to excel in long relief. We know they do. We also know Houck seems to have issues going past 2 times through a line-up.

 

Both would probably make great 1 inning guys (45-55 appearances).

 

Both might make great starters, even if they don't get past 4 or 5 innings. These days, that's not a fault.

 

We have seen some tinkering with established roles over the last decade. Andrew Miller was one. I think he had over 70 appearances 2 or 3 times in his career and was used for more than 1 inning quite a few times.

 

Chad Green had 67 appearances and 84 IP, this year.

Nabil Crismatt had 81 IP in 45 games, which is very close to 2 IP every 3 games.

 

Whitlock pitched in almost a third of our games, this year (46) and went 73.1 IP.

He had a stretch in April, where he did this:

 

3.1 IP

2.0 - 4 days later

1.0 - 6 days later

2.2 - 4 days

2.1 - 4 days

2.0 - 5 days

 

That's not really the same as what I am suggesting as a possible plan, but it's not far off, either.

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

The thing about Houck and Whitlock that makes them different from a guy like Chad Green is that they have legit potential as starters.

 

It's a fundamental and logical principle that guys that are good enough to be starters should not be relievers.

[moonslav59]

The thing about Houck and Whitlock that makes them different from a guy like Chad Green is that they have legit potential as starters.

 

It's a fundamental and logical principle that guys that are good enough to be starters should not be relievers.

 

I'm not disagreeing. I think both will be good to great starters, and we happen to have 1-2 slots open, next year.

 

IMO, it's more costly, but easier to get a SP'er FA signing right than trying to spend large on a pen. That's the only reason I am resisting moving them both to the rotation, next year.

[Bellhorn04]

IMO, it's more costly, but easier to get a SP'er FA signing right than trying to spend large on a pen. That's the only reason I am resisting moving them both to the rotation, next year.

 

It's easy to get a SP'er signing right? Not so sure about that.

 

I think Bloom will do well assembling pens without big spending.

[moonslav59]

It's easy to get a SP'er signing right? Not so sure about that.

 

.

 

I don't have any data, but it seems like signing a costly RP'er is almost always bad.

 

Also, I'm not talking a $10M SP'er like Richards or Kluber. I'm talking $20-25M+.

 

Yes, many of those type signings have not been all that good, either, but to me, it seems like they work out better.

[moonslav59]

I think Bloom will do well assembling pens without big spending.

 

I do, too, and I don't want our GM spending big on the pen. (That's one reason I', leaning towards keeping both Houck and Whitlock in the pen, and one for sure.)

 

If we do indeed have $30-40M to spend, this winter and don't spend much on the pen, I'm hoping we can sign a solid #2 or someone like Scherzer to a short term deal, instead of spending on offense.

[Bellhorn04]

It's going to be interesting to see how they handle Houck and Whitlock, that's for sure. Planning on both being in the rotation does seem risky.

 

Unfortunately it brings back memories of the 2012 plan of moving both Bard and Aceves into the rotation.

 

I'd certainly settle for a 50/50 split.

[mvp 78]

It's going to be interesting to see how they handle Houck and Whitlock, that's for sure. Planning on both being in the rotation does seem risky.

 

Unfortunately it brings back memories of the 2012 plan of moving both Bard and Aceves into the rotation.

 

I'd certainly settle for a 50/50 split.

 

Houck reminds me more of how they used Paplebon at the beginning. Paplebon started with a few 5 inning starts and then was transitioned to a multiple inning role in the pen. There was question in the offseason if he'd be put in the rotation, but Paplebon said he was fine being the closer going into opening day.

 

Whitlock is a greater unknown because we don't know if they are simply managing his innings because of him coming of TJS.

 

I could see a case for either being put in the rotation OR being left in the pen.

[Bellhorn04]

Houck reminds me more of how they used Paplebon at the beginning. Paplebon started with a few 5 inning starts and then was transitioned to a multiple inning role in the pen. There was question in the offseason if he'd be put in the rotation, but Paplebon said he was fine being the closer going into opening day.

 

Whitlock is a greater unknown because we don't know if they are simply managing his innings because of him coming of TJS.

 

I could see a case for either being put in the rotation OR being left in the pen.

 

Right. Instinctively it seems to make sense to put one in the rotation and one in the pen.

[Nick]

It's easy to get a SP'er signing right? Not so sure about that.

 

I think Bloom will do well assembling pens without big spending.

 

I just don't understand Moon's insistence that Bloom WILL HAVE TO SPEND HIGH DOLLARS on relief pitching. He picked up Sawamura and Robles on the cheap. There are dozens like them.

 

If we want to extend Devers, as an example, you fill in SP with Houck and Whitlock, not take a $10M flyer on Richards.

 

I just don't see what he's seeing.

[moonslav59]

Houck reminds me more of how they used Paplebon at the beginning. Paplebon started with a few 5 inning starts and then was transitioned to a multiple inning role in the pen. There was question in the offseason if he'd be put in the rotation, but Paplebon said he was fine being the closer going into opening day.

 

Whitlock is a greater unknown because we don't know if they are simply managing his innings because of him coming of TJS.

 

I could see a case for either being put in the rotation OR being left in the pen.

 

Great pull on Papelbon. I like the comp.

[moonslav59]

Right. Instinctively it seems to make sense to put one in the rotation and one in the pen.

 

I am pretty sure Whitlock starts.

 

I'd like to see Houck as our closer, but I'd be fine, if he starts, too.

[mvp 78]

I am pretty sure Whitlock starts.

 

I'd like to see Houck as our closer, but I'd be fine, if he starts, too.

 

I flip flop each day as to which one should move to the rotation.

[mvp 78]

I just don't understand Moon's insistence that Bloom WILL HAVE TO SPEND HIGH DOLLARS on relief pitching. He picked up Sawamura and Robles on the cheap. There are dozens like them.

 

If we want to extend Devers, as an example, you fill in SP with Houck and Whitlock, not take a $10M flyer on Richards.

 

I just don't see what he's seeing.

 

I would look at the Rays 2021 FA model:

 

Wacha 1/3

McHugh 1/1.8

Hunter 1/2.2

[Bellhorn04]

The Red Sox already said the plan was for Whitlock to become a starter, so I do expect to see that next year.

[mvp 78]

The Red Sox already said the plan was for Whitlock to become a starter, so I do expect to see that next year.

 

Plans change, pal.

[moonslav59]

I just don't understand Moon's insistence that Bloom WILL HAVE TO SPEND HIGH DOLLARS on relief pitching. He picked up Sawamura and Robles on the cheap. There are dozens like them.

 

If we want to extend Devers, as an example, you fill in SP with Houck and Whitlock, not take a $10M flyer on Richards.

 

I just don't see what he's seeing.

 

Umm, our pen was carried by Whitlock, and at times Houck. Ottavino and Barnes also did well out of the gate. Ottavino was costly.

 

If we move both Houck and Whitlock to the rotation, we will need major additions to the pen. We don't have the luxury to add 15 ho-hum pitchers like Robles and Sawamura, in hopes 6-9 stick. Our roster is deeper, now, than last year. Also, I'm not so sure why people are pointing at Sawamura as a success story. He was okay, but we aren't winning with 9 Sawamura's, next year.

 

Please stop saying I think Bloom will have to spend high dollars on relief pitching. For one, I don't think that is what Bloom does, and secondly, he won't spend big on RP'er, even if he is given $40M and both Houck and Whitlock are moved to the rotation. He will likely spend a significant amount to fill a few slots (2-4, maybe) and then sign a bunch of minor league deals or deals that give a pitcher an option to opt out in May, if they are not on the 26 man roister. He will not spend a whole lot. We also need a utility IF'er and many here want Schwarber back. That won't leave much for high spending on the pen, anyway.

 

While there might be dozens of Robles and Sawamura's, having to go through dozens and dozens, and I'm not exaggerating here, to find a few that stick can be very costly, in terms of early and mid season losses. With all the rag-tag moves Bloom had to make this year, which included moving a $10M starter (Richards) and $6M starter (Perez) to the pen, one could argue, he spent a lot on the pen, this year. (Almost $9M for Ottavino and the extension for Barnes, too)

 

I'm a hug fan of Bloom, as everyone knows, but he is not some savant on finding quality but low cost pen arms at a better rate than anyone else, as far as I know.

 

Here is a list of the pitchers used in the pen since the start of 2020:

 

Bloom Acquisitions:

Whitlock

Ottavino

Andriese

Sawamura

Valdez

Robles

Rios

Davis

Feliz

Bazardo

Gonsalvez

Brennan

Peacock

Schreiber

Espinal

Ort

(Richards & Perez from rotation)

Weber

Springs

Brice

Covey

Osich

Stock

Mazza

Hall

Tapia

Godley

Triggs

Leyer

Workman (2nd time)

 

Here before Bloom:

DHern

Barnes

Hembree

Taylor

Workman

Brasier

Walden

Brewer

 

Bloom acquired 31 RP'er in the past 2 years. Maybe 3-4 have done well and another 3-4 okay.

 

If Houck and Whitlock go to the rotation and Ottavino is not re-signed as a FA, we are losing our top 2 RP'er by IP and look to Barnes as the key for 2022.

 

OPS Against in 2021 out of the pen (listed by most PAs against):

 

RED= Gone from Pen, if 2 are moved to rotation

 

.631 Whitlock (298 PA) TO ROTATION

.728 Ottavino 276

.768 Sawamura 233

.641 Barnes 222 (Very bad in second half)

.702 DHern 182

.700 Valdez 177

.659 Richards 113

.692 Robles 109 (FA after 2021)

.615 Rios 98 (A hopeful for 2022)

.864 Workman 93

.773 Davis 75

.795 Perez 64

.843 Brice 64

.742 Brasier 50

.493 Houck 42 TO Rotation FT

 

Our 2022 Pen:

R1. ______

R2. ______

R3. ______

R4. Barnes

R5. Taylor

R6. Brasier

R7. DHern

R8. Sawamura

R9. Valdez/Davis/Rios/Feltman/Bazardo

 

So, in light of the fact that we have about 3-5 roster openings after Rule 5, is the idea is to not sign a SP'er or utility man, but instead to sign 5 RP'ers at a low to moderate cost, in hopes they fill the 3 top slots?

 

Edited October 15, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

I flip flop each day as to which one should move to the rotation.

 

I hear you.

 

Houck is the only one of the two to go 5-6 innings in MLB.

 

Whitlock has excelled as a RP'er going 1-2 IP.

[mvp 78]

Whitlock in 2019:

Frist 3 starts: 6IP each time out

June 2019: 5 GS, 6 IP each time out

July 2019: 1 GS, 5 IP - TJS

 

Whitlock in 2018:

8 starts of 6 IP+

 

Houck's longest start in 2021: 5.1 IP

Houck in 2020: 5IP, 6IP, 6IP

Houck in 2019: 8 starts 6IP+

Houck in 2018: 8 starts 6IP+

 

Same age. Similar question marks.

[cp176]

I think that Houck is a potential top shelf starter and that is the role that he should play. Whitlock I suppose there might be a little question about but I don't think plugging him to a relief pitchers role is something that should be done.