A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[mvp 78]

Maybe so. I have never claimed otherwise.

 

I'm not sure many teams look at CERA type data, but the fact that many teams intentionally lock one catcher with certain pitchers shows they believe in some aspect of pitcher-catcher relationships and comfort levels making a difference.

 

It's not all about what pitches a catcher calls, either.

 

It makes a difference. How much is highly debatable.

 

How much the Sox use it is unknown. They may laugh at it like you guys do.

 

It's zero.

[moonslav59]

It's zero.

 

Then why do certain pitchers have only one catcher catch them or one for 90% of the time?

 

Why not rest catchers based on lefty-righty splits or success vs this pitcher or that?

 

IT'S CLEARLY NOT ZERO!

 

[mvp 78]

Then why do certain pitchers have only one catcher catch them or one for 90% of the time?

 

Why not rest catchers based on lefty-righty splits or success vs this pitcher or that?

 

IT'S CLEARLY NOT ZERO!

 

 

Pitcher: Hey coach, I like pitching to Catcher 1. I want him every game.

Coach: But Catcher 2 has a better CERA with you this season.

Pitcher: I like Catcher 1 better. Thanks.

[moonslav59]

Pitcher: Hey coach, I like pitching to Catcher 1. I want him every game.

Coach: But Catcher 2 has a better CERA with you this season.

Pitcher: I like Catcher 1 better. Thanks.

 

Makes no sense or point.

[moonslav59]

No doubt, I may be overemphasizing CERA related value. I get that. I think you guys think I value it more than I do, because I spend so much time arguing it matters.

 

It does boggle my mind that some think it has zero value. That is makes absolutely no difference to the pitcher and team, after factoring in pitch-framing and other defensive aspects- who catches.

 

Really?

 

Zero?

 

Those consistent 1.00 to 1.50 ERA disparities have to all be just chance randomness and strength of opponent's offenses. (Not that I'm saying CERA explains all or even most of those disparities, but come on, zero?)

 

Mind-boggling.

[mvp 78]

No doubt, I may be overemphasizing CERA related value. I get that. I think you guys think I value it more than I do, because I spend so much time arguing it matters.

 

It does boggle my mind that some think it has zero value. That is makes absolutely no difference to the pitcher and team, after factoring in pitch-framing and other defensive aspects- who catches.

 

Really?

 

Zero?

 

Those consistent 1.00 to 1.50 ERA disparities have to all be just chance randomness and strength of opponent's offenses. (Not that I'm saying CERA explains all or even most of those disparities, but come on, zero?)

 

Mind-boggling.

 

1. " I think you guys think I value it more than I do, because I spend so much time arguing it matters." There's only one way to fix that.

2. "Those consistent 1.00 to 1.50 ERA disparities have to all be just chance randomness and strength of opponent's offenses." The differences are NOT consistent though. They are random.

[Maxbialystock]

I will always be pissed about trading and not resigning Betts, regardless of budgets etc. He was a generational talent. In Red Sox history they have had Ruth, Ted Williams, Yaz, Rice, and Betts with similar profiles. IMO, you can’t let franchise defining players walk. Plus, he was my favorite Red Sox player since Yaz, so I don’t care about the other side of the argument.

 

Interesting, but you left something important out. Williams, Yaz, and Rice--and a bunch of others I'm sure--were all part of the 86 year Curse of the Bambino. Betts is the only one from the John Henry era, and he was on just one of the four John Henry teams that won the World Series. Betts was and is a great talent, but, frankly, I like rooting for a team that can win it all. The Sox didn't need Mookie to win the WS in 2004, 2007, and 2013. And, frankly, I doubt that he would have made that much of a difference last year or this year for the Sox--the Dodgers are/were, of course, another story.

[moonslav59]

1. " I think you guys think I value it more than I do, because I spend so much time arguing it matters." There's only one way to fix that.

2. "Those consistent 1.00 to 1.50 ERA disparities have to all be just chance randomness and strength of opponent's offenses." The differences are NOT consistent though. They are random.

 

The differences are consistent. year to year. pitcher by pitcher. 75-80% of pitchers do better with the other catcher. You can choose to not believe it, but I have provided all the data.

 

It takes two to argue, so as soon as you stop saying it makes zero difference, the debate ends.

[Maxbialystock]

It's zero.

 

moonslav relies heavily on stats, which you are more than willing to disparage, even to saying there is zero statistical evidence that CERA is real.

 

So let's try this. The best pitcher on this team beyond question is Eovaldi, but in Eovaldi's four starts in this crucial month of September, Vazquez has not caught him once. Plawecki has caught him in all four games.

 

Vazquez has however caught Eovaldi earlier in the season--as recently as last month, in fact.

 

To me that is pretty damning evidence that Cora, not Eovaldi, does not trust Vazquez with his best pitcher when every game is crucial.

 

Eovaldi is also having his best month of the season with an ERA of 2.70.

 

Not that it's all that relevant, but I'm of the opinion that a good catcher, in the words of the Scarecrow in the Wizard of Oz, needs a brain. Watching Vazquez on the basepaths this year has convinced me he doesn't have one--or much of one.

[notin]

Pitcher: Hey coach, I like pitching to Catcher 1. I want him every game.

Coach: But Catcher 2 has a better CERA with you this season.

Pitcher: I like Catcher 1 better. Thanks.

 

It is weird they call them “Catcher 1” and “Catcher 2” instead of by name. Professional athletes are just so different from the rest of us…

[notin]

moonslav relies heavily on stats, which you are more than willing to disparage, even to saying there is zero statistical evidence that CERA is real.

 

So let's try this. The best pitcher on this team beyond question is Eovaldi, but in Eovaldi's four starts in this crucial month of September, Vazquez has not caught him once. Plawecki has caught him in all four games.

 

Vazquez has however caught Eovaldi earlier in the season--as recently as last month, in fact.

 

To me that is pretty damning evidence that Cora, not Eovaldi, does not trust Vazquez with his best pitcher when every game is crucial.

 

Eovaldi is also having his best month of the season with an ERA of 2.70.

 

Not that it's all that relevant, but I'm of the opinion that a good catcher, in the words of the Scarecrow in the Wizard of Oz, needs a brain. Watching Vazquez on the basepaths this year has convinced me he doesn't have one--or much of one.

 

It could be a decision by Cora, but I wouldn’t rule out good ol’ fashioned superstition. Baseball players are notoriously superstitious and Eovaldi might prefer Plawecki because he feels he has his best games with him.

 

Of course, I have no idea if Eovaldi himself is actually superstitious.

 

Also, I do not recall the Scarecrow talking about catchers….

[mvp 78]

moonslav relies heavily on stats, which you are more than willing to disparage, even to saying there is zero statistical evidence that CERA is real.

 

CERA is fake. All of his other stats are valid and appreciated.

[Maxbialystock]

CERA is fake. All of his other stats are valid and appreciated.

 

And I think it's real if only because catching--especially, calling pitches--is not easy so it's silly to assume all catchers are equal. I am happy to concede that pitchers are rarely consistent from game to game regardless of who is catching.

 

Nevertheless, to me the evidence of Cora using Plawecki and no one else to catch our ace in September is pretty damning evidence for Vazquez. I might add that Eovaldi loves his fastball but has developed a good splitter and a good knuckle curve to go with his fastball, cutter, and slider--so calling pitches for him ain't easy. Plawecki to me has done a very good job of restraining Eovaldi's enthusiasm for throwing heat.

[mvp 78]

And I think it's real if only because catching--especially, calling pitches--is not easy so it's silly to assume all catchers are equal. I am happy to concede that pitchers are rarely consistent from game to game regardless of who is catching.

 

Nevertheless, to me the evidence of Cora using Plawecki and no one else to catch our ace in September is pretty damning evidence for Vazquez. I might add that Eovaldi loves his fastball but has developed a good splitter and a good knuckle curve to go with his fastball, cutter, and slider--so calling pitches for him ain't easy. Plawecki to me has done a very good job of restraining Eovaldi's enthusiasm for throwing heat.

 

"The object of the game is to win. If the pitcher wins the game, they have done what was expected of them. The best pitchers win the most games."

[notin]

"The object of the game is to win. If the pitcher wins the game, they have done what was expected of them. The best pitchers win the most games."

 

That’s why Bartolo Colon beat Johan Santana for the Cy Young Award. He had more wins and was therefore the better pitcher. And we can ignore that Santana was better in all the other pitching stats…

[Bellhorn04]

moonslav relies heavily on stats, which you are more than willing to disparage, even to saying there is zero statistical evidence that CERA is real.

 

So let's try this. The best pitcher on this team beyond question is Eovaldi, but in Eovaldi's four starts in this crucial month of September, Vazquez has not caught him once. Plawecki has caught him in all four games.

 

Vazquez has however caught Eovaldi earlier in the season--as recently as last month, in fact.

 

To me that is pretty damning evidence that Cora, not Eovaldi, does not trust Vazquez with his best pitcher when every game is crucial.

 

Eovaldi is also having his best month of the season with an ERA of 2.70.

 

Not that it's all that relevant, but I'm of the opinion that a good catcher, in the words of the Scarecrow in the Wizard of Oz, needs a brain. Watching Vazquez on the basepaths this year has convinced me he doesn't have one--or much of one.

 

So why do you suppose Cora has trusted Vazquez to catch about 70% of the time this year?

[Bellhorn04]

The differences are consistent. year to year. pitcher by pitcher. 75-80% of pitchers do better with the other catcher.

 

That holds true for 2021?

[mvp 78]

That’s why Bartolo Colon beat Johan Santana for the Cy Young Award. He had more wins and was therefore the better pitcher. And we can ignore that Santana was better in all the other pitching stats…

 

Yes. The object of the game is to WIN.

[mvp 78]

So why do you suppose Cora has trusted Vazquez to catch about 70% of the time this year?

 

Why is he catching for Sale tonight?

[mvp 78]

That holds true for 2021?

 

No, because it's random.

[Maxbialystock]

So why do you suppose Cora has trusted Vazquez to catch about 70% of the time this year?

 

Salary, OPS (above average for a catcher), and DWAR. Plus he knows the staff, especially those who were here last year.

[Maxbialystock]

So why do you suppose Cora has trusted Vazquez to catch about 70% of the time this year?

 

Salary, OPS (above average for a catcher), and DWAR. Plus he knows the staff, especially those who were here last year.

 

The obverse also applies. Why, if starting catcher Vazquez has been catching 70% of the games this year, is he suddenly and deliberately not catching our best starter who, in the absence of Vazquez, is having his best month in the heat of a pennant race in September?

[Maxbialystock]

Why is he catching for Sale tonight?

 

Catching Sale is the easiest thing in the world. He normally has good stuff, excellent command, and almost never shakes off his catcher. Plus he only throws 3 pitches--slider, changeup, and curve.

[Bellhorn04]

Salary, OPS (above average for a catcher), and DWAR. Plus he knows the staff, especially those who were here last year.

 

The obverse also applies. Why, if starting catcher Vazquez has been catching 70% of the games this year, is he suddenly and deliberately not catching our best starter who, in the absence of Vazquez, is having his best month in the heat of a pennant race in September?

 

Eovaldi is doing great with Plawecki so you leave it that way.

[notin]

And I think it's real if only because catching--especially, calling pitches--is not easy so it's silly to assume all catchers are equal. I am happy to concede that pitchers are rarely consistent from game to game regardless of who is catching.

 

Nevertheless, to me the evidence of Cora using Plawecki and no one else to catch our ace in September is pretty damning evidence for Vazquez. I might add that Eovaldi loves his fastball but has developed a good splitter and a good knuckle curve to go with his fastball, cutter, and slider--so calling pitches for him ain't easy. Plawecki to me has done a very good job of restraining Eovaldi's enthusiasm for throwing heat.

 

It might have more to do with regularly resting Vazquez, especially since catcher is a fairly grueling position physically.

 

Over the season, Plawecki has caught Eovaldi 16 times to 12 for Vazquez, so this is not a new radical change…

[moonslav59]

That holds true for 2021?

 

I've posted the data several times.

 

It's up to you to determine where the sample size minimum needs to be to make the comp have merit.

 

Over the years, I have posted, pitcher by pitcher, year by year and also career numbers pitcher by pitcher. The evidence is not only clear, it is overwhelmingly clear. The disparities are consistent and significant in most cases.

 

We can argue about randomness and other variables being in play, but the facts are clear: most pitchers with large sample sizes with 2 or more Sox catcher do way better with the catcher not names Vaz.

[moonslav59]

So why do you suppose Cora has trusted Vazquez to catch about 70% of the time this year?

 

Nobody is arguing CERA is more than 50% of the reason to start one catcher over another.

 

I'm the main guy arguing its value, and I have never said Plawecki should start or even play more than he is, now.

 

You guys keep acting like I am arguing for Vaz to be benched over CERA.

[Bellhorn04]

Nobody is arguing CERA is more than 50% of the reason to start one catcher over another.

 

I'm the main guy arguing its value, and I have never said Plawecki should start or even play more than he is, now.

 

You guys keep acting like I am arguing for Vaz to be benched over CERA.

 

No, you're arguing to get another starting catcher for 2022 based on CERA.

[a700hitter]

Interesting, but you left something important out. Williams, Yaz, and Rice--and a bunch of others I'm sure--were all part of the 86 year Curse of the Bambino. Betts is the only one from the John Henry era, and he was on just one of the four John Henry teams that won the World Series. Betts was and is a great talent, but, frankly, I like rooting for a team that can win it all. The Sox didn't need Mookie to win the WS in 2004, 2007, and 2013. And, frankly, I doubt that he would have made that much of a difference last year or this year for the Sox--the Dodgers are/were, of course, another story.

I left nothing out. Those are your thoughts and words.

[moonslav59]

No, you're arguing to get another starting catcher for 2022 based on CERA.

 

Wrong. I said I’d keep him for 2022, if he made $2M.

 

The CERA is just one factor out of many, including his decline in offense, that makes him not worth $7M.