A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[mvp 78]

The best pop time in ML history won't matter much, if the runners are already on 2nd base when the throw is half way to 2nd.

 

Who's on the mound, Buggs Bunny?

[mvp 78]

We can trade pretty much the entire team (targeting high paid players) with exception of Sale.

 

C Wong and Hernadez

1B Casas

2B Arroyo

SS Downs

3B Dalbec

IF Iglesias

LF Duran

CF Kike

RF Renfroe

OF Verdugo

DH Schwarber

SP Sale

SP Eovaldi

SP Pivetta

SP Whitlock

SP Seabold

SP Bello

Cl Houck

RP Barnes

RP Taylor

RP Darwinzon

RP Winckowski

RP Davis

RP Sawamura

RP Robles

 

That's slashing away $103M of payroll before adding Schwarber. You can trade away $17M attached to Eovaldi and now it's $120M less say $15M for Schwarber.

 

We can be the Rays North with better attendance.

 

Why bring back Robles though?

[moonslav59]

Boston ranks 20th in the majors in starter ERA (4.57).

 

Manager Alex Cora said he’s not concerned about the starting pitching.

 

1. The NL starters face a pitcher not a DH.

2. Park dimensions matter.

3. Disparity in strength of opponent offenses matters.

Most runs scored:

1. HOU 806

2. TBR 806

3. TOR 789

4. BOS .776

(5 teams 724-757)

(5 teams 679-694)

(5 teams 654-671)

(5 teams 630-650)

26. BAL 620

(4 teams 554-595)

 

Starter ERA-

14th Sox (7th out of 15 in AL)

 

We replaced Perez and Richards with Sale and Houck.

 

We are not great in this area, but I think we are better than our ERA shows and improved over what we saw in the middle of 2020.

 

All this, despite our defense being putrid. (Yes, it's not just about earned vs unearned runs.)

 

BAbip

.329 BOS

 

.317 KCR

 

.310 BAL

.308 PIT

.305 LAA & CHC

.301 COL

.300 OAK

 

.296 or less, the rest (half the league under .288)

 

 

[moonslav59]

Why bring back Robles though?

 

He's a FA, so should not be on this list.

[moonslav59]

Who's on the mound, Buggs Bunny?

 

We gave up trying to hold runners over a decade ago. It's not even something we talk about.

[moonslav59]

And Plawecki would pass through waivers.

 

It's not about that.

 

It's about offering him an arb or not. If he takes it, makes $1.8M in arb, we pay him that after he is unclaimed in waivers or the difference if taken after he clears waivers..

[moonslav59]

If the BTV site has any value, they currently have JD at -4.4 value. Since he makes $19.3M, next year, I guess they place his value at about $15M/1.

 

Would anyone here trade JD +$4M for a distant prospect with little hope?

 

Would anyone trade him +$8M for a decent pitcher with $4M value (like a pitcher similar to Seabold or Groome)?

 

Another idea might be to trade him for a high-priced pitcher worth about $4M less than his salary.

 

This could be done with the idea of signing Schwarber using some of the savings.

[mvp 78]

It's not about that.

 

It's about offering him an arb or not. If he takes it, makes $1.8M in arb, we pay him that after he is unclaimed in waivers or the difference if taken after he clears waivers..

 

With you, I can never figure out what it's about, especially in terms of your wants for a Catcher.

[mvp 78]

If the BTV site has any value, they currently have JD at -4.4 value. Since he makes $19.3M, next year, I guess they place his value at about $15M/1.

 

Would anyone here trade JD +$4M for a distant prospect with little hope?

 

Would anyone trade him +$8M for a decent pitcher with $4M value (like a pitcher similar to Seabold or Groome)?

 

Another idea might be to trade him for a high-priced pitcher worth about $4M less than his salary.

 

This could be done with the idea of signing Schwarber using some of the savings.

 

If they are trading him so that they can fill his spot with Schwarber: sure.

 

I don't think the Sox would necessarily have to eat any of his contract though.

[mvp 78]

Can Dalbec continue his current plate discipline into next year?

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/is-bobby-dalbecs-improved-plate-discipline-sustainable/

 

Through July 31, Dalbec was slashing just .216/.260/.399, with a 4.4% walk rate, a 37.5% strikeout rate, and 11 homers in 296 trips to the dish. That, coupled with less-than-stellar defense (it’s still rated as a negative), gave the Red Sox every reason to option him to Triple-A.

 

The poor start and the hot stretch since have resulted in season stats — a .245/.306/.497 slashline and 111 wRC+ — roughly in line with what I’d peg as his true talent level.

 

Dalbec has now walked more times since August 1 than he did from Opening Day through the end of July. That seems to indicate a change under the hood. And yet when we take a look at Dalbec’s plate discipline metrics, there isn’t anything that immediately jumps out as the basis for his much-improved walk and strikeout rates.

 

His contact rates are up, but that wouldn’t explain the increase in his walk rate, or a decrease in strikeout rate of this magnitude. His O-Swing% and his swinging strike rate are both relatively unchanged. Is Dalbec just a case of extreme noise in the discipline department? Maybe, but it’s worth checking the count-specific data to see if an approach change in two-strike counts can explain these results. Maybe Dalbec is generally the same hitter in non-two-strike counts, but has tried harder to avoid the strikeout when faced with one directly. That’s basically what he told Abraham in that September 12 story when he said, “I’m comfortable taking strikes in the zone knowing that’s not the pitch I want. Then just battle with two strikes.”

 

Dalbec’s contact rate on swings with two strikes has jumped by more than 11 percentage points from the first stretch of his season (up to July 31) to the second (August 1 and on). In all other counts, it has actually gone down.

 

Is Dalbec swinging at fewer two-strike pitches outside of the strike zone, resulting in these higher contact rates? What’s odd is that his two-strike chase rate hasn’t dipped much between the two stretches: From 39.7% in stretch one to just 36.0% in stretch two. Perhaps when coupled with an increase in his in-zone swing rate in two-strike counts, from 88.2% to 93.2%, we can begin to put together a picture of what is happening. Dalbec is making better swing decisions in two-strike counts, thus yielding more contact and, as a result, fewer strikeouts.

 

While some hitters have a propensity to increase their contact rates with two strikes, the relationship is pretty noisy and may not be a skill that is sustainable year-to-year.

 

Even though he’s had a 25-game stretch with a strikeout rate as low as 20.5%, other strikeout-prone types have done the same. Joey Gallo had a 25-game stretch with a strikeout rate of 24.3% this season; Javier Báez is currently in the midst of a sub-25% strikeout rate stretch; and Tyler O’Neill had one as low as 21.0% in July. Sometimes, even the players who are the most inclined to strike out crush everything and avoid the whiff, but mean reversion eventually runs its course. While it’s been fun to watch Dalbec have so much success, some of his underlying numbers demonstrate that he’s only made slight changes to his swing decisions. As with most players, his full-season stats describe him best, making this stretch likely just a small blip.

[moonslav59]

With you, I can never figure out what it's about, especially in terms of your wants for a Catcher.

 

I'm not a big Plawecki fan. I think he gets more from the pitchers than Vaz, but there are other catchers that can do that or even better.

 

I do value pitch framing and blocking bad pitches, but if robo umps come about, that won't be a factor.

 

I have liked Vaz, but have felt his offense outweighs his poor staff handling, but this year, yikes!

 

If it were up to me, I might trade Vaz and non tender Plawecki. Sign a guy known for his defense and handling a staff and go with Wong/Hernandez as the back-up. (maybe sign a cheap vet)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Boston ranks 20th in the majors in starter ERA (4.57).

 

Manager Alex Cora said he’s not concerned about the starting pitching.

 

1. The NL starters face a pitcher not a DH.

2. Park dimensions matter.

3. Disparity in strength of opponent offenses matters.

Most runs scored:

1. HOU 806

2. TBR 806

3. TOR 789

4. BOS .776

(5 teams 724-757)

(5 teams 679-694)

(5 teams 654-671)

(5 teams 630-650)

26. BAL 620

(4 teams 554-595)

 

Starter ERA-

14th Sox (7th out of 15 in AL)

 

We replaced Perez and Richards with Sale and Houck.

 

We are not great in this area, but I think we are better than our ERA shows and improved over what we saw in the middle of 2020.

 

All this, despite our defense being putrid. (Yes, it's not just about earned vs unearned runs.)

 

BAbip

.329 BOS

 

.317 KCR

 

.310 BAL

.308 PIT

.305 LAA & CHC

.301 COL

.300 OAK

 

.296 or less, the rest (half the league under .288)

 

 

 

Nothing personal, because I always like to see the stats you post, but the first thing I thought about when I saw Tampa and Toronto #2 and #3 in runs scored is that they get to bat against Boston pitchers 19 games each. The next thing I thought is they get to hit balls at Boston fielders 19 games each.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Can Dalbec continue his current plate discipline into next year?

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/is-bobby-dalbecs-improved-plate-discipline-sustainable/

 

Through July 31, Dalbec was slashing just .216/.260/.399, with a 4.4% walk rate, a 37.5% strikeout rate, and 11 homers in 296 trips to the dish. That, coupled with less-than-stellar defense (it’s still rated as a negative), gave the Red Sox every reason to option him to Triple-A.

 

The poor start and the hot stretch since have resulted in season stats — a .245/.306/.497 slashline and 111 wRC+ — roughly in line with what I’d peg as his true talent level.

 

Dalbec has now walked more times since August 1 than he did from Opening Day through the end of July. That seems to indicate a change under the hood. And yet when we take a look at Dalbec’s plate discipline metrics, there isn’t anything that immediately jumps out as the basis for his much-improved walk and strikeout rates.

 

His contact rates are up, but that wouldn’t explain the increase in his walk rate, or a decrease in strikeout rate of this magnitude. His O-Swing% and his swinging strike rate are both relatively unchanged. Is Dalbec just a case of extreme noise in the discipline department? Maybe, but it’s worth checking the count-specific data to see if an approach change in two-strike counts can explain these results. Maybe Dalbec is generally the same hitter in non-two-strike counts, but has tried harder to avoid the strikeout when faced with one directly. That’s basically what he told Abraham in that September 12 story when he said, “I’m comfortable taking strikes in the zone knowing that’s not the pitch I want. Then just battle with two strikes.”

 

Dalbec’s contact rate on swings with two strikes has jumped by more than 11 percentage points from the first stretch of his season (up to July 31) to the second (August 1 and on). In all other counts, it has actually gone down.

 

Is Dalbec swinging at fewer two-strike pitches outside of the strike zone, resulting in these higher contact rates? What’s odd is that his two-strike chase rate hasn’t dipped much between the two stretches: From 39.7% in stretch one to just 36.0% in stretch two. Perhaps when coupled with an increase in his in-zone swing rate in two-strike counts, from 88.2% to 93.2%, we can begin to put together a picture of what is happening. Dalbec is making better swing decisions in two-strike counts, thus yielding more contact and, as a result, fewer strikeouts.

 

While some hitters have a propensity to increase their contact rates with two strikes, the relationship is pretty noisy and may not be a skill that is sustainable year-to-year.

 

Even though he’s had a 25-game stretch with a strikeout rate as low as 20.5%, other strikeout-prone types have done the same. Joey Gallo had a 25-game stretch with a strikeout rate of 24.3% this season; Javier Báez is currently in the midst of a sub-25% strikeout rate stretch; and Tyler O’Neill had one as low as 21.0% in July. Sometimes, even the players who are the most inclined to strike out crush everything and avoid the whiff, but mean reversion eventually runs its course. While it’s been fun to watch Dalbec have so much success, some of his underlying numbers demonstrate that he’s only made slight changes to his swing decisions. As with most players, his full-season stats describe him best, making this stretch likely just a small blip.

 

I know some will blast this, but I think Bloom will trade one of Dalbec or Casas soon. Both may be future stars or future busts, but because of that there's also a chance at least one may never fetch more in return trade value this coming winter. I also don't see Bloom spending boatloads on free agents this offseason, so a big trade seems more likely.

[moonslav59]

I know some will blast this, but I think Bloom will trade one of Dalbec or Casas soon. Both may be future stars or future busts, but because of that there's also a chance at least one may never fetch more in return trade value this coming winter. I also don't see Bloom spending boatloads on free agents this offseason, so a big trade seems more likely.

 

I'd add Downs & Duran to that list and would guess one of the 4 is traded this winter or at the deadline in 2022.

 

I'm not projecting an emptying of the farm, but a strategic deal here or there seems likely.

[moonslav59]

Nothing personal, because I always like to see the stats you post, but the first thing I thought about when I saw Tampa and Toronto #2 and #3 in runs scored is that they get to bat against Boston pitchers 19 games each. The next thing I thought is they get to hit balls at Boston fielders 19 games each.

 

True, but maybe part of the reason BOS and BAL allow so many runs is because they face the rays and Jays almost 25% of their games.

 

The stat that does it for me is the BAbip. If ours was at .300, our pitching would look great.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not a big Plawecki fan. I think he gets more from the pitchers than Vaz, but there are other catchers that can do that or even better.

 

I do value pitch framing and blocking bad pitches, but if robo umps come about, that won't be a factor.

 

I have liked Vaz, but have felt his offense outweighs his poor staff handling, but this year, yikes!

 

If it were up to me, I might trade Vaz and non tender Plawecki. Sign a guy known for his defense and handling a staff and go with Wong/Hernandez as the back-up. (maybe sign a cheap vet)

 

We've been through this before, but for whatever reason, Vazquez has much better numbers with the bullpen, and as a result his overall CERA is lower than Plawecki's.

 

Vazquez's overall CERA is 4.18.

 

And as we have established, our pitching ERA is inflated by bad defense.

[mvp 78]

I'm not a big Plawecki fan. I think he gets more from the pitchers than Vaz, but there are other catchers that can do that or even better.

 

I do value pitch framing and blocking bad pitches, but if robo umps come about, that won't be a factor.

 

I have liked Vaz, but have felt his offense outweighs his poor staff handling, but this year, yikes!

 

If it were up to me, I might trade Vaz and non tender Plawecki. Sign a guy known for his defense and handling a staff and go with Wong/Hernandez as the back-up. (maybe sign a cheap vet)

 

Until robo umps actually show up, you need to account for framing. I think the Vaz/Plawecki combo could be completely scrapped for something else. However, I bet the keep Vaz around just for continuity sake.

[mvp 78]

We've been through this before, but for whatever reason, Vazquez has much better numbers with the bullpen, and as a result his overall CERA is lower than Plawecki's.

 

Vazquez's overall CERA is 4.18.

 

And as we have established, our pitching ERA is inflated by bad defense.

 

You think he'll listen this time?

[moonslav59]

Here are the updated BTV values for our best players:

 

77 Devers

54 Casas

42 Houck

41 Verdugo

34 Mayer

32 Bogey

23 Duran

19 Eovaldi & Yorke

12 Downs & Taylor

11 Kike & Jimenez

9 Pivetta

6 Mata

5 Dalbec, Bello, Renfroe, Whitlock, Jordan

4 Groome, Barnes, Arroyo

3.5 Seabold, Winckowski

3 McDonough, R Hern, Rosario

2.5 Bonaci, Lugo, Ward, Bleis, Potts, Valdez, Wong, Decker

2 Murphy

 

Note: only 7 players between 6 and 23 and 9 between 5 and 34.

 

I'd put Whitlock near Houck, Dalbec near Pivetta and Mayer way higher.

 

Overrated? Perhaps Duran and Rosario- maybe Downs, who slipped from over 20 to 12.

 

 

[mvp 78]

I know some will blast this, but I think Bloom will trade one of Dalbec or Casas soon. Both may be future stars or future busts, but because of that there's also a chance at least one may never fetch more in return trade value this coming winter. I also don't see Bloom spending boatloads on free agents this offseason, so a big trade seems more likely.

 

They are both CHEAP. Having cheap and productive players is how you can build an all around team. Dalbec could be good enough to be a fulltime DH. You could use JD/Schwarber money on pitching.

[moonslav59]

You think he'll listen this time?

 

It's you that won't listen.

 

It's about proportionality. If one catcher catches better pitchers more often than the others, some exclusively with just one, the numbers are apples vs oranges.

 

Of the 9 pitchers with 50+ PAs with both catchers, 5 were RP'ers and 4 SP'ers. (ERod is only caught br Vaz.)

 

Yes, Vaz does slightly better with the pitchers with smaller sample sizes than 50, but it's still Plawecki 10-7 with the top 17 pitchers with 20+ PAs with both catchers.

 

By itself, this is not earth-shattering, but when every season reveals the same thing, those ignoring it are the ones "not listening."

 

It's not like Plawecki is some boy wonder. Leon blew Vaz away.

 

It's more about Vaz's short-comings than anything special by Plawecki.

 

That's why I'm fine with replacing Plawecki (and Vaz, too).

 

Defense starts at catcher and SS.

 

[moonslav59]

Until robo umps actually show up, you need to account for framing. I think the Vaz/Plawecki combo could be completely scrapped for something else. However, I bet the keep Vaz around just for continuity sake.

 

Continuity of what?

 

You wanna repeat 2021's pitching and defense results, next year?

[moonslav59]

They are both CHEAP. Having cheap and productive players is how you can build an all around team. Dalbec could be good enough to be a fulltime DH. You could use JD/Schwarber money on pitching.

 

One could also end up in LF.

 

Keep 'em both, at least until there is a clear logjam.

[mvp 78]

Continuity of what?

 

You wanna repeat 2021's pitching and defense results, next year?

 

Unsure of how Vaz is affecting the abhorrent defense the rest of the team exudes.

[moonslav59]

Unsure of how Vaz is affecting the abhorrent defense the rest of the team exudes.

 

The catcher does play D, call pitches and try to make the pitcher feel confident and be successful.

 

[mvp 78]

Unsure of how Vaz is affecting the abhorrent defense the rest of the team exudes.

 

don't make me tap the sign.

[Bellhorn04]

It's not like Plawecki is some boy wonder. Leon blew Vaz away.

 

Shocking that Vaz is even still with us! Somebody in the org isn't reading the data right, I guess...

[Bellhorn04]

The catcher does play D, call pitches and try to make the pitcher feel confident and be successful.

 

 

How much does the catcher have to do with that bloated BABip we keep hearing about?

[mvp 78]

Shocking that Vaz is even still with us! Somebody in the org isn't reading the data right, I guess...

 

CERAsly.

[mvp 78]

How much does the catcher have to do with that bloated BABip we keep hearing about?

 

Just think at how much better Xander's range would be if the Sox had a new catcher! Renfroe would have zero errors if it wasn't for that dastardly VAZ! Devers' throwing issues? VAZ!!!!!