A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[Larry Cook]

Instead of paying Schwarber and Bogey, we could sign a plus O- plus D SS like Baez, Story or Correa, trade Bogey or move him to 2B and then spend anything left on pitching and more pitching.

 

I am not sure story is a defensive upgrade over bogey.

 

If Correa was not hurt every other week, I could see him being a worthy signing.

[notin]

Instead of paying Schwarber and Bogey, we could sign a plus O- plus D SS like Baez, Story or Correa, trade Bogey or move him to 2B and then spend anything left on pitching and more pitching.

 

There isn’t a heckuva lot of pitching worth spending on in this FA class or the next.

 

The bigger marquee names include 37yo Max Scherzer, Trevor Bauer and his pending legal battles, Mike Clevinger, who has thrown 160 innings since 2018, and the very uninspiring yet also extremely underrated Joe Musgrove…

[moonslav59]

There isn’t a heckuva lot of pitching worth spending on in this FA class or the next.

 

The bigger marquee names include 37yo Max Scherzer, Trevor Bauer and his pending legal battles, Mike Clevinger, who has thrown 160 innings since 2018, and the very uninspiring yet also extremely underrated Joe Musgrove…

 

Maybe signing a SS and trading Bogey for pitching solves that problem.

[moonslav59]

I am not sure story is a defensive upgrade over bogey.

 

Story is significantly better on defense by every measure and is loved by The Fielding Bible.

 

I’ll take their word for it.

 

Baez may be the best choice.

[mvp 78]

There isn’t a heckuva lot of pitching worth spending on in this FA class or the next.

 

The bigger marquee names include 37yo Max Scherzer, Trevor Bauer and his pending legal battles, Mike Clevinger, who has thrown 160 innings since 2018, and the very uninspiring yet also extremely underrated Joe Musgrove…

 

https://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/story/2021-09-10/dodgers-pitcher-trevor-bauers-leave-extended-again

 

You think Bauer will get released?

[mvp 78]

Maybe signing a SS and trading Bogey for pitching solves that problem.

 

If a team wants a player like Bogey, why wouldn't they just sign one of the FA SS's?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If a team wants a player like Bogey, why wouldn't they just sign one of the FA SS's?

 

Improving the D, as has been said, could also weaken the O... for those of us who can't handle the truth of three true outcomes: Baez, Correa and Story all strike out more than Bogaerts. Baez even leads the majors in Ks this year.

[moonslav59]

If a team wants a player like Bogey, why wouldn't they just sign one of the FA SS's?

 

Many might want that, but only 3 will get one.

 

Many might not want to commit to $25-33M x 4-7 years, but can afford $20M x 1. (They could even trade him again at the deadline.)

 

You really must not think much of Bogey's value to think nobody would trade for him.

[moonslav59]

Improving the D, as has been said, could also weaken the O... for those of us who can't handle the truth of three true outcomes: Baez, Correa and Story all strike out more than Bogaerts. Baez even leads the majors in Ks this year.

 

Since when is K% more important than OPS, WAR or other values? (That's not to say Bogey does not have great values, there, but why use K's?)

 

WAR

21

5.1 Correa

4.9 Bogey

3.6 Baez

3.3 Story

3.1 Swanson

 

20-21

7.4 Semien

6.8 Bogey

6.0 Correa

5.7 Story

4.9 Swanson

3.6 Baez (HAD A BAD 2020)

 

OPS

21

.875 Bogey

.845 Correa

.826 Baez

.801 Story

.774 Swanson

 

18-21

.898 Bogey

.882 Story

.823 Baez

.811 Semien

.808 Correa

 

Edited September 16, 2021 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Since when is K% more important than OPS, WAR or other values? (That's not to say Bogey does not have great values, there, but why use K's?)

 

 

 

Since my post was to caution some fans -- and agree with others -- who maybe aren't fond (like myself) of watching whiffers... to be careful what you wish for. Great stats, btw.

[moonslav59]

Since my post was to caution some fans -- and agree with others -- who maybe aren't fond (like myself) of watching whiffers... to be careful what you wish for. Great stats, btw.

 

K's never bother me, if the guy is getting the job done when not K'ing.

 

I'd rather have 18 more Ks from JD than his 18 GIDP's.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

K's never bother me, if the guy is getting the job done when not K'ing.

 

I'd rather have 18 more Ks from JD than his 18 GIDP's.

 

Good point. But for me as a spectator, a quick grounder seems less painful than three flailing swings and misses at sliders breaking down and away to the same exact spot out of the strike zone. It's my own issue: as a kid I once struck out a lot, then worked for decades at attaining discipline in the box, and it's an approach we now coach to all young hitters.

[mvp 78]

Improving the D, as has been said, could also weaken the O... for those of us who can't handle the truth of three true outcomes: Baez, Correa and Story all strike out more than Bogaerts. Baez even leads the majors in Ks this year.

 

Why not keep Bogey AND sign a SS?

[mvp 78]

Many might want that, but only 3 will get one.

 

Many might not want to commit to $25-33M x 4-7 years, but can afford $20M x 1. (They could even trade him again at the deadline.)

 

You really must not think much of Bogey's value to think nobody would trade for him.

 

Signing a FA would cost a QO comp pick at most. Trading for Bogey would cost prospects plus the worry of Bogey leaving at year end. Better to go with the stability of the FA class IMO. It's the opt out that hurts Bogey's value the most.

[mvp 78]

K's never bother me, if the guy is getting the job done when not K'ing.

 

I'd rather have 18 more Ks from JD than his 18 GIDP's.

 

No, I'd rather him put the ball in play. There is a higher likelihood of success if the ball is put in play than if it just lands in the catcher's mitt. How many times did he put the ball in play and avoid a DP rather than just k?

[mvp 78]

Since when is K% more important than OPS, WAR or other values? (That's not to say Bogey does not have great values, there, but why use K's?)

 

WAR

21

5.1 Correa

4.9 Bogey

3.6 Bogey

3.3 Story

3.1 Swanson

 

20-21

7.4 Semien

6.8 Bogey

6.0 Correa

5.7 Story

4.9 Swanson

3.6 Baez (HAD A BAD 2020)

 

OPS

21

.875 Bogey

.845 Correa

.826 Baez

.801 Story

.774 Swanson

 

18-21

.898 Bogey

.882 Story

.823 Baez

.811 Semien

.808 Correa

 

 

Bogey is so good you had to give him double the WAR!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Why not keep Bogey AND sign a SS?

 

I would do it, but would Bloom? If the Sox move X to another position, would he opt out?

[mvp 78]

I would do it, but would Bloom? If the Sox move X to another position, would he opt out?

 

He may opt out if you keep him at SS.

[notin]

I would do it, but would Bloom? If the Sox move X to another position, would he opt out?

 

I would put it at 100% if he is moved, based on previous statements made about how he feels about the position. But it’s probably at like 95% if he stays at shortstop anyway…

[moonslav59]

Signing a FA would cost a QO comp pick at most. Trading for Bogey would cost prospects plus the worry of Bogey leaving at year end. Better to go with the stability of the FA class IMO. It's the opt out that hurts Bogey's value the most.

 

No comp pick for Baez, since he was traded mid season (No QO).

 

Teams might value the short term nature of Bogey's "low cost" deal. Teams that think 2022 is their best chance but don't want to give out any long term deals.

[mvp 78]

I would put it at 100% if he is moved, based on previous statements made about how he feels about the position. But it’s probably at like 95% if he stays at shortstop anyway…

 

Sign Story and have him play 2B. If Xander leaves, Story moves to SS. If Xander stays, try to work out who gets SS long term.

[mvp 78]

I would sit Xander down and try to reason with him that RF and 2B would be a better fit for him as he ages.

[mvp 78]

I would sit Xander down and try to reason with him that RF and 2B would be a better fit for him as he ages.

 

He's faster than Kiké, maybe he could take over in CF.

[moonslav59]

He may opt out if you keep him at SS.

 

I think it's 100% he opts out.

 

The question is, do we re-sign him?

 

If we think we won't, we might want to be proactive and sign someone, this year- a year with 3 excellent choices (but costly).

[mvp 78]

Red Sox 2022:

 

Schwarber 1B

Kiké 2B

Story SS

Correa 3B

Renfroe RF

Xander CF

Devers LF

[moonslav59]

Sign Story and have him play 2B. If Xander leaves, Story moves to SS. If Xander stays, try to work out who gets SS long term.

 

I could be wrong, but I think Story is clearly the better defensive SS. If I sign him, I trade or move Bogey to 2B (or 3B, if we want to get radical.)

[moonslav59]

Red Sox 2022:

 

Schwarber 1B

Kiké 2B

Story SS

Correa 3B

Renfroe RF

Xander CF

Devers LF

 

Kike is a great CF'er. Why move Bogey to CF, instead of 2B?

[mvp 78]

I think it's 100% he opts out.

 

The question is, do we re-sign him?

 

If we think we won't, we might want to be proactive and sign someone, this year- a year with 3 excellent choices (but costly).

 

At some point, the Sox have to throw a bone to Red Sox Nation TM. They need to extend somebody long term. Why not Xander and Raffy?

[mvp 78]

Kike is a great CF'er. Why move Bogey to CF, instead of 2B?

 

Bogey is faster than Kiké. Maybe he still wants to play next to his buddy Raffy.

[mvp 78]

I could be wrong, but I think Story is clearly the better defensive SS. If I sign him, I trade or move Bogey to 2B (or 3B, if we want to get radical.)

 

Devers could go to LF.

 

I do worry about Story's numbers away from Coors.