A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[moonslav59]

I usually wait until the current season is over or all but over to start next year's thread, but it does not make sense discussing 2022 on the 2021 thread, so here it is...

 

Here is a look at next year's projected 26 (Red) and 40 (Blue) man roster.

 

Free Agents:

ERod

Ottavino

Marwin

Robles

Santana

 

Projected Options not given:

Richards ($10M/$1.5 Mb/o)

Perez ($6M/ $500K b/0)

Andriese ($3.5M/ $250K b/o)

 

Projected opt out: Schwarber ($11.5M)

 

Projected Options given: Vaz ($7M)

Projected no opt out: JD ($19.4M)

 

2022 (4 projected FA signings- #2 SP, #2 RP, 1B, Utility IF'er):

(5) Rule 5 protected

 

SP: Sale, FA, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Whitlock, Seabold, Groome, Mata, Bello (5), Winckowski (5)

RP: Barnes, FA, Houck, Taylor, DHern, Sawamura, Brasier, Valdez

Rios, Bazardo

C: Vazquez, Plawecki, Wong, Ro. Hernandez (bubble?)

1B: FA, Dalbec, Cordero

2B: Arroyo Downs (5)

3B: Devers

SS: Bogey, FA

LF: Verdugo

CF: Kike, Duran. Jimenez (5)

RF: Renfroe

DH: JD

 

Any 3 from...

5th FA or 6th FA

Current 40 Man Bubble (all have options remaining): A Davis, Rosario, Potts, Arauz

Possible Rule 5 protected: Kutter Crawford, Victor Santos, Thaddeus Ward

Cole Brannen, Cole Cottam, Durbin Feltman, Frank German, Devlin Granberg. Kaleb Ort, Tyreque Reed, John Schreiber

 

The budget outlook is a little murky, due to JD's opt out and a few options that might be viewed as borderline (not by me). Here is a look at the lux tax numbers for 2022 (by cots):

 

Locked Up: $100.5M

25.6 Sale

20.0 Bogey

17.0 Eovaldi

16.0 Price

9.38 Barnes

7.00 Kike

1.50 Sawamura

 

Arbs (2021 salary) $24.5

10.5 Devers 2 of 3 (4.6) YES

5.00 Renfroe 3 of 4 (3.1)

2.50 Plawecki 4 of 4 (1.6)

1.50 Brasier 2 of 3 (1.3)

0.90 Cordero 2 of 3 (800K)

2.50 Verdugo 1 of 3 (650K)

2.50 Pivetta 1 of 3 (614K)

1.10 Arroyo 1 of 3 (582K)

1.00 Taylor 1 of 4 (581K)

 

Pre-Arb Keepers (on 40 man):

D Hernandez

P Valdez

Houck

Dalbec

Whitlock

Duran

Groome

B Mata

Y Rios

C Seabold

C Wong

 

Pre-Arb Bubblers (on 40 man):

A Davis

Arauz

Bazardo

Ro Hernandez

H Potts

J Rosario

 

Player Opt Out or Mutual Option: ($19.5M)

22.0 JD (19.4 projected no opt out)

10.0 Schwarber (11.5 m/o w 3 b/o) projected no option

 

Team Options (my projection) 2021lux tax): ($7M)

10.0 w 1.5 b/o Richards (NO) 10.0

6.0 w 500K b/o Perez (NO) 5.0

7.0 w 250K b/o Vaz (YES) 4.5

3.5 w 250K b/o Andriese (NO) 2.1

 

Free Agents (2021 $$$ lux tax):

13.8 Pedey (Retired)

8.9 Ottavino

8.3 ERod

3.0 Marwin (DFA'd)

2.8 Beni (paid to KCR-2021)

2.0 Robles

??? Santana

(NYY paid us $1.8M for Ottavino in 2021)

 

TOTAL BUDGET:

151.5M

+ 2.5M other 40man roster players

+15.5M Player Benefits

 

$170M

 

4-5 FA Pick-ups:

SP2 (1-3 years)

RP2 (1-3 years)

1B (1-2 years)

Utility (1-2 years)

Pitcher (1-2 years)

Edited August 13, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Rule 5, this winter:

Jecorrah Arnold

Brayan Bello

Cole Brannen

Gary Calvo

Marco Cardoso

Pedro Castellanos

Felix Cepeda

Kole Cottam

Kutter Crawford

Ricardo Cubillan

Osvaldo De La Rosa

Tyler Dearden

Jonathan Diaz

Danny Diaz

Jeter Downs

Tyler Esplin

Durbin Feltman

Ryan Fernandez

Ryan Fitzgerald

Antoni Flores

Frank German

Rio Gomez

Devlin Granberg

Gilberto Jimenez

Jose Larez

Dominic LoBrutto

Bryan Lucas

Charlie Madden

Alan Marrero

Elih Marrero

Joan Martinez

Alexander Montero

Oddanier Mosqueda

Brendan Nail

Brett Netzer

Tanner Nishioka

Kaleb Ort

Yusniel Padron-Artiles

Aaron Perry

Antonio Police

AJ Politi

Ceddanne Rafaela

Oscar Rangel

Tyreque Reed

Jesus Rosillo

Yasel Santana

Victor Santos

Zach Schellinger

John Schreiber

Gregori Segovia

Chase Shugart

Miguel Suero

Jake Thompson

Thaddeus Ward

Grant Williams

Josh Winckowski

[Nick]

I don't see Bloom giving up a top farm guy for a rental. I think he intends to go after Schwarber. At worst he can DH and play LF. We have 40 some games to evaluate him. He's a natural hitter.

[moonslav59]

I don't see Bloom giving up a top farm guy for a rental. I think he intends to go after Schwarber. At worst he can DH and play LF. We have 40 some games to evaluate him. He's a natural hitter.

 

Agreed.

 

He could be the 1Bman FA I have listed.

 

He could also play him in LF, Verdugo in CF and Kike at 2B.

[oldtimer]

Some folks feel confident in naming alternatives for the 2022 team and back it up with stats. That’s one approach. I prefer to state some general concepts (however trite) that perhaps Bloom will follow in constructing the team before I also dive into naming players.

 

1. I prefer a team of 13 field players and 13 pitchers from ST on. Cora went with 12 field players and 14 pitchers in 2021. Whatever he goes with is what we live with.

 

2. We see teams like the Rays being successful year to year with small payrolls and the opposite with the Dodgers spending big. To be most effective, a team needs to rid itself of the dead money issues incurred through bad contracts and then try to go forward by getting the most value from the contracts they do sign. No more sentimentality.

 

3. I advocate thinking in terms of a salary pyramid in which the stars (usually up the middle players and front line pitchers) get paid. Money is distributed down accordingly . I would try to stay below the CBT except where there is a real chance of competing in the WS. Long term loss of prospects is an important issue to me. It is wise to keep some money available for trade deadline action.

 

4. The maximum length of contracts given can be a real bugaboo for a team if it wishes to be consistently competitive. I’d rather lose a player than offering him extra long contracts. I would separate pitchers from field players because of wear and tear. For pitches in their early 30’s maybe 3 years in the mid 30’s 2 years. For pitchers in their 20’s up to 5 years. For field players in their early to mid 20’s up to 8 years, mid 20s to early 30’s 5 years. Mid 30’s 2 years. I would grant very few exceptions and stick with the plans.

 

5. To have an effective team you need some stars, veteran journeymen and rookies or near rookies to fill in the roster. It’s important to avoid negative and disruptive personality types and great if leader types emerge. Rookies will need time to contribute at a high level so should be brought along with that in mind. The idea of rookies and journey men is to keep the payroll within bounds.

 

6. Player flexibility is also important. Almost certainly there will be needs to substitute during the long season. Pitchers are fragile. Let’s hope the Covid issue doesn’t continue in 2022 but if a player does not get shots I would think the risk factor would have to be weighed in against potential value to the team. Injuries, sickness, paternity and bereavement leaves. There are lots of reasons to need players who can fill in both on the active roster and on the 40 man.

 

7. I would want at least 4 active roster field players to hit from the left side. It’s hard to find quality switch hitters but they are of value. Speed would be a plus when evaluating as would defensive capability. On the offensive side I would want high on base percentage guys with superior plate discipline. If a guy has power but a high strikeout rate and a low walk rate that would rule in the evaluation.

 

8. Pitching comes down to demonstrated reliability. The ability to command and throw strikes is a primary. Velocity helps but it is command that separates pitchers today. Starters need an assortment of pitches since the hitter may see them 3 times around.

 

For 2022, I would look at each player against these general thoughts and drive the team in a direction based on an agenda like this one. Bloom is smart and he no doubt has his own detailed approach. He may also have a budget that informs his plans.

[Bellhorn04]

2. We see teams like the Rays being successful year to year with small payrolls and the opposite with the Dodgers spending big. To be most effective, a team needs to rid itself of the dead money issues incurred through bad contracts and then try to go forward by getting the most value from the contracts they do sign. No more sentimentality.

 

Good post. The only thing I don't get is the 'No more sentimentality' comment. Not sure what you're getting at there.

[moonslav59]

Nice job, old timer. Alll your points look solid.

 

I will add that using your criteria every time will mean we’ll never sign the very best free agents or keep our own.

 

That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but I think there comes a time, maybe twice a decade, where you just need a certain guy so badly, you have to throw some caution to the wind.

[notin]

Nice job, old timer. Alll your points look solid.

 

I will add that using your criteria every time will mean we’ll never sign the very best free agents or keep our own.

 

That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but I think there comes a time, maybe twice a decade, where you just need a certain guy so badly, you have to throw some caution to the wind.

 

There are ALWAYS exceptions.

 

As much as I think those massive contracts are a bigger detriment than boon, there are always players the Sox just should go in on.

 

Of course if the re-instate the “no pitchers/players over 30” guideline, about 90% of them all drop from consideration anyway…

[Bellhorn04]

Of course if the re-instate the “no pitchers/players over 30” guideline, about 90% of them all drop from consideration anyway…

 

This is why JH keeps his trap shut now.

[moonslav59]

There are ALWAYS exceptions.

 

As much as I think those massive contracts are a bigger detriment than boon, there are always players the Sox just should go in on.

 

Of course if the re-instate the “no pitchers/players over 30” guideline, about 90% of them all drop from consideration anyway…

 

I felt like Manny and Price were two of those players. (The Sale trade, too, but that was not a high cost, until we extended him.)

 

I hated the CC deal- day one.

[moonslav59]

This is why JH keeps his trap shut now.

 

He has said some things better left unsaid, but some of the characterizations given to his statements here, like "celebrating" resetting the budget, seems a bit too embellishing.

[notin]

I felt like Manny and Price were two of those players. (The Sale trade, too, but that was not a high cost, until we extended him.)

 

I hated the CC deal- day one.

 

Manny was 27 when the Sox signed him. It made sense. Price was 31. The Sox had to hope it worked out and they won enough in the first 3 or 4 years to make the last seasons when that deal was dragging the team down more palatable…

[moonslav59]

Manny was 27 when the Sox signed him. It made sense. Price was 31. The Sox had to hope it worked out and they won enough in the first 3 or 4 years to make the last seasons when that deal was dragging the team down more palatable…

 

The thing about Price was that he and Scherzer were two of the best FA starters to come along in a pretty wide window. Once we failed to pounce on Scherzer, I think we had to sign Price.

 

The other thing was that when you sign an aging pitcher like Price to 8 years, you really want some big bangs in the first few years. I never saw it.

 

Sure, he had some good years and key moments, but he was far from Scherzer.

[Nick]

Years of Team control 2022 and beyond

 

Position Players

6 Duran

5 Xander (opt out after 22)

5 Dalbec

3 Verdugo

3 Arroyo

2 Devers

2 Renfroe

 

Starters

5 Houck (maybe 6)

5 Whitlock

4 Sale

3 Pivetta

 

Bullpen

4 Taylor

4 Darwinzon

4 Valdez

3 Barnes

2 Brasier.

2 Sawamura

 

Not a bad list....

 

If this were the Rays....Xander would have been traded earlier, Devers would be traded this winter, Sale would have traded earlier, Barnes would have become FA or traded....

Edited August 15, 2021 by Nick

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Y

 

 

If this were the Rays.... Barnes would have become traded....

 

... at the deadline, while they were in first place, for two younger relievers no one's ever heard of -- who both throw 105 mph vs. Boston the very next week.

[Bellhorn04]

If this were the Rays....Xander would have been traded earlier, Devers would be traded this winter, Sale would have traded earlier, Barnes would have become FA or traded....

 

It's all part of the Death Rays strategy for domination. They're trying to convince richer teams it's a good idea to sell at the deadline even if you're a contendah.

[moonslav59]

My early projection on the 2022 Sox 26 man roster:

 

SP1 Sale

SP2 Greinke (yes at age 38 to a shorter term deal)

SP3 Eovaldi

SP4 Pivetta

SP5 Whitlock

 

Clo Raisel Iglesias

RP2 Houck

RP3 Barnes

RP4 Taylor

RP5 DHern

RP6 Sawamura

RP7 Brasier

RP8 Valdez

 

C Vazquez

C Plawecki

1B Schwarber

1B/3B Dalbec

2B Arroyo (Kike)

3B Devers

SS Bogey

SS Jose Iglesias

LF Verdugo

CF/2B Hernandez

CF Duran

RF Renfroe

DH Martinez (does not opt out or is extended at a lower AVV)

 

Others on 40 man

SP: Seabold, Winckowski (Rule 5), Crawford (Rule 5), Bello (Rule 5), Groome, Mata

RP: Rios, Davis, Bazardo

C: Wong

IF: Downs (Rule 5)

OF: Cordero, Jimenez (Rule 5)

 

One from the bubble list:

Ro Hernandez

T Ward (Rule 5)

V Santos (Rule 5)

F German (Rule 5)

D Granberg (Rule 5)

D Feltman (Rule 5)

K Ort (Rule 5)

T Reed (Rule 5)

Rosario

Arauz

C Cottam (Rule 5)

R Fitzgerald (Rule 5)

T Dearden (Rule 5)

 

 

Gone from 2021 40man roster:

Marwin

Santana

ERod

Ottavino

Richards

Perez

Andriese

Robles

Potts

(From bubble list: R Hernandez, Rosario & Arauz)

 

Edited August 15, 2021 by moonslav59

[notin]

It's all part of the Death Rays strategy for domination. They're trying to convince richer teams it's a good idea to sell at the deadline even if you're a contendah.

 

Actually if the Sox operated like the Rays, Duran would have been signed to a 5 year extension by now…

[moonslav59]

Actually if the Sox operated like the Rays, Duran would have been signed to a 5 year extension by now…

 

...and Sale would have been gone long before the extension.

JD would never have been signed.

Eovaldi, too.

No Bogey.

[oldtimer]

Good post. The only thing I don't get is the 'No more sentimentality' comment. Not sure what you're getting at there.

 

I think of Pedey's contract as having been driven by sentimentality. Some would disagree with me on that, but we took a long term contract on a guy with declining skills because he was a hero. We were also unlucky, in that he got hurt and couldn't play at all. This is the last year of paying the salary, which has hampered us to some degree.

[oldtimer]

Nice job, old timer. Alll your points look solid.

 

I will add that using your criteria every time will mean we’ll never sign the very best free agents or keep our own.

 

That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but I think there comes a time, maybe twice a decade, where you just need a certain guy so badly, you have to throw some caution to the wind.

 

There probably do need to be exceptions but they should be applied with great care.

[moonslav59]

There probably do need to be exceptions but they should be applied with great care.

 

I agree. There should be a great need and much discussion before any exceptions occur.

[oldtimer]

I was looking over our minor league and prospect player list and I see darn few who may be brought up in 2022. Duran and Houck are already up so in my view we have possibilities in the field of:

 

Casas

Munoz

DeShields

 

Yorke and Jimenez are very promising for 2023 while Mayer may be 2024.

 

I don't see Downs making an impact as he doesn't hit minor league pitching

 

As far as pitching is concerned we have Seabold with Ward, Winkowski (sp)and Bello possible

 

Mata is out with TJ and Groome has been unimpressive

 

Thats not a lot of talent so Bloom has to try to keep existing quality talent while looking to the FA market for 2022. Let us hope the purse strings open up a bit. We don't get rid of Price's contract until next year.

[Nick]

I was looking over our minor league and prospect player list and I see darn few who may be brought up in 2022. Duran and Houck are already up so in my view we have possibilities in the field of:

 

Casas

Munoz

DeShields

 

Yorke and Jimenez are very promising for 2023 while Mayer may be 2024.

 

I don't see Downs making an impact as he doesn't hit minor league pitching

 

As far as pitching is concerned we have Seabold with Ward, Winkowski (sp)and Bello possible

 

Mata is out with TJ and Groome has been unimpressive

 

Thats not a lot of talent so Bloom has to try to keep existing quality talent while looking to the FA market for 2022. Let us hope the purse strings open up a bit. We don't get rid of Price's contract until next year.

 

Just a general comment.

 

As Moon often has said, Sox fans tend to 'overvalue' their prospects. When looked through the 30 team spectrum, we're in the lower half.

 

We're far from NOT sniffing the luxury tax line. Not sure how much money is available this winter if we still can't go over the $210M mark.

 

No one has convinced me that Pivetta, Whitlock and Houck can't be a starter along with Eovaldi and Sale. How much upgrade can you make without going after a #1 type pitcher that will require massive commitment by the club? Who is out there for less than $10M that will be an upgrade over Pivetta, Whitlock and Houck?

 

Bullpen needs reinforcement despite having 4-5 solid guys.

 

Kike, Renfroe, Xavier, JD, Devers, Verdugo, Arroyo and say Schwarber looks good enough to be on a World Series contending team.

I'm okay with the starting five, maybe re-sign E Rod and move Houck to the pen.

 

Can't have enough guns in the pen though.

 

Ok, missed the money part on Moon's outstanding post....

 

We have $40M to sign Schwarber(?), E Rod or Greinke, a top line reliever.

Edited August 15, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

I was looking over our minor league and prospect player list and I see darn few who may be brought up in 2022. Duran and Houck are already up so in my view we have possibilities in the field of:

 

Casas

Munoz

DeShields

 

Yorke and Jimenez are very promising for 2023 while Mayer may be 2024.

 

I don't see Downs making an impact as he doesn't hit minor league pitching

 

As far as pitching is concerned we have Seabold with Ward, Winkowski (sp)and Bello possible

 

Mata is out with TJ and Groome has been unimpressive

 

Thats not a lot of talent so Bloom has to try to keep existing quality talent while looking to the FA market for 2022. Let us hope the purse strings open up a bit. We don't get rid of Price's contract until next year.

 

Groome may start coming around, soon, but to still binge at A ball at age 22 has to be viewed as an overall letdown, despite the injuries.

 

I would also add that Casas has to hit better than .768 in AA to get a shot at playing a hitter's position like 1B in 2022.

 

Downs is seeing his stock fall, but I think he can still turn things around.

 

I like what I have seen from Wong, so we may see more of him.

 

I think Bello may rise more quickly that we think.

 

Seabold should see significant time with the big club in 2022- maybe even this September.

 

I also like Winckowski, but he has been struggling, of late.

 

Chris Murphy may rise and contribute in '22.

 

Ronald Hernandez, Munoz, Crawford, Bazardo and Arauz can be role players.

 

Getting great input from Whitlock, Houck and Duran lessens the need to have serious impact prospects for 2022, but it would be nice to get something good from somebody.

 

 

 

Edited August 15, 2021 by moonslav59

[Nick]

I do think signing Schwarber in anticipation of JD moving on after 2022 (even if he stays after 2021) is typical Red Sox move. We extended Eovaldi knowing Porcello was going to be in his last year of contract. Hedging the bet as a gambler would say. It's matter of how much that insurance will cost.

 

I love Schwarber. I saw him play at IU.

[moonslav59]

Sox fWAR Rankings (50+ PAs)

4. Devers 4.6

8. Bogey 4.5

36. Kike 3.2

48. JD 2.9

98. Verdugo 1.8

108. Schwarber 1.7

117. Renfroe 1.6

150. Arroyo 1.3

0.4 Plawecki

0.2 Vazquez

-0.1 Dalbec

-0.3 Duran

-0.4 Chavis

-0.4 Santana

-0.5 Marwin

-0.7 Cordero

 

Starting Pitching ( 154 pitchers w 50+ IP)

4. Eovaldi 4.1

34. ERod 2.5

55. Pivetta 1.9

117. Perez 0.5

124. Richards 0.4

 

RP'ers (264 with 20+ IP)

6. Barnes 1.6

13. Ottavino 1.3

24. Whitlock 1.1

49. Taylor 0.7

198. Y Rios 0.0

206. DHer -0.1

224. Valdez -0.1

226. Workman -0.1

227. Andriese -0.2

241. Robles -0.3

253. Sawamura -0.4

 

[moonslav59]

Team fWAR Numbers

 

American League

 

Position Players:

24.7 HOU

19.5 CWS

19.4 TBR

19.2 TOR

18.9 OAK

18.3 BOS

14.1 MIN

13.5 NYY

 

Pitching

18.1 CWS

15.9 NYY

14.4 BOS

14.1 TBR

13.9 OAK

11.5 HOU

11.0 SEA

10. TOR 7.6

 

Add the two:

37.6 CWS

36.2 HOU

33.5 TBR

32.8 OAK

32.7 BOS

30.4 NYY

26.8 TOR

19.7 SEA

 

Sox By Position:

 

1st SS

1st 3B

2nd CF

3rd DH

4th 2B

4th SP

5th RP

 

8th LF

8th RF

 

11th C

14th 1B

 

 

[moonslav59]

This kid has really come on this year...good stuff, good change up, good control.

 

Brayan Bello's pitching line for tonight; 6 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 9 K. The 22-year-old righty is currently seventh on

 

I've always been very high on Bello. He could be the guy that makes a difference, sooner rather than later.

 

This was my rankings from a week ago on the prospects page:

 

My top 30

1. Mayer

2. Duran

3. Houck (I'd flip Houck and Duran, now.)

4. Casas

5. Bello

6. Jimenez

7. Downs

8. Yorke

9. Seabold

10. Song

11. Jordan

12. Winckowski

13. Murphy

14. Mata

15. Wong

16. Groome

17. Bonaci

18. Wilkelman

19. Crawford

20. Howlett

21. Lugo

22. Bleis

23. Hickey

24. McDonough

25. Cannon

26. Bazardo

27. Rosario

28. Ro Hernandez

29. Paulino

30. Arauz/Lira/Potts/Drohan

Edited August 15, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

To me, the biggest improvement Bl0om has brought to this club is not to the farm and not to the top 20 players or the 26 man roster. It's to the bottom 14-15 men on the 40 man roster and the bubble players beyond them. (Yes, some are prospects, but compare this winter's projected 26-40 men to the 2020 bottom of roster.

 

My projected 27-45 roster players this winter:

Seabold, Bello, Groome, Winckowski, Crawford, Mata

Rios, Bazardo, Davis

Wong, R Hernandez

Downs, Arauz

Jimenez, Rosario

 

2020's

Covey, Kickham, Hart, Triggs

Brice, Stock, Walden, Hall, Lever

Grullon, Lucroy

Chavis, Lin

Puello

 

Not to mention the #22-26 type guys like Mazza, Godley, Brewer, Springs, Peraza, Arauz.