2021 MLB draft

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Teams don't draft for need, but if all things are equal--two players with the same value--a team might look at its minor league depth in order to make a decision especially when it involves elite prospects at the top of the draft.

 

For example, there is almost a zero chance the Tigers take Davis--they spent 2 million on Dingler and he looks really good. The Tigers have so many other needs. Thus, unless Davis has a much higher grade than the other available draftees at 3, they aren't taking him. I would be surprised to see the Rangers take Davis, especially if Leiter is there, but if they have an incredibly high grade on Davis they will take him no matter what.

 

I can't find a quality catching prospect in the Pirates system and Stallings is 31 years old; by the time the Pirates turn it around, Stallings won't be there.

 

The Red Sox farm system is thin at catcher as well and Vazquez is 30 years old, and is arguably already showing some decline this season.

Edited June 6, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Hugh2]

Teams don't draft for need, but if all things are equal--two players with the same value--a team might look at its minor league depth in order to make a decision especially at the top of the draft and elite prospects are involved.

 

For example, there is almost a zero chance the Tigers take Davis--they spent 2 million on Dingler and he looks really good. The Tigers have so many other needs. Thus, unless Davis has a much higher grade than the other available draftees at 3, they aren't taking him. I would be surprised to see the Rangers take Davis, especially if Leiter is there, but if they have an incredibly high grade on Davis they will take him no matter what.

 

I can't find a quality catching prospect in the Pirates system and Stallings is 31 years old--by the time the Pirates turn it around, Stallings won't be there.

 

Needs are pointless, you can always trade from surplus for depth. If Davis is the BPA, you take him and trade him down the line if need be.

 

These guys are 2-4 years away from playing in the majors and a lot can happen in that window.

 

Also, the Tigers have been tied to Davis and have been said to really like him (they like Leiter too). So I wouldn’t rule them out drafting Davis just because they have a catcher in their system,

[Hugh2]

I think they’d take Leiter over Davis too, so they probably don’t take Davis unless Leiter goes 1-1.

 

They could be in on Mayer/Lawlar too.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

It is interesting that Jobe's name is popping up more and more as a high pick. The more you look into him, the more you like him. He could end up being a better pitcher than Leiter or Rocker. When I look at Jobe, though, I can't help but remember Billy Beane's comment about how he wouldn't scout certain high school pitchers--he was worried he would fall in love with the talent and would be tempted to draft a player who has a low probability of reaching their ceiling.

[Hugh2]

It is interesting that Jobe's name is popping up more and more as a high pick. The more you look into him, the more you like him. He could end up being a better pitcher than Leiter or Rocker. When I look at Jobe, though, I can't help but remember Billy Beane's comment about how he wouldn't scout certain high school pitchers--he was worried he would fall in love with the talent and would be tempted to draft a player who has a low probability of reaching their ceiling.

 

If you’re drafting a pitcher for pure upside, Jobe is your guy. Best spin rate in the draft, his slider is already mlb caliber.

 

HS pitchers are risky, they’re the biggest boom/bust out there. The Trey Ball PTSDers will lose their minds if we draft Jobe. But I have heard that he belongs in that top tier of talent. Seems to be 8 guys.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Needs are pointless

 

If all things are equal--two players with the same grade--why would needs be pointless? It is only human nature to consider the strengths and weaknesses of your farm system.

 

In the NFL, needs play a much larger role in determining draft decisions. In contrast, MLB prospects are a few years away and needs play almost no role. But "almost no role" is different from "no role at all." Moreover, catcher is an odd position in which an organization might target players to fill the position; it isn't like drafting pitchers, you can never have enough pitchers even if your farm system is loaded with them.

 

Speaking of pointless, since our disagreement seems to revolve around "almost no role" (my position) versus "no role at all" (your position), I can't think of a more futile topic to debate.

Edited June 6, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Hugh2]

If all things are equal--two players with the same grade--why would needs be pointless? It is only human nature to consider the strengths and weaknesses of your farm system.

 

In the NFL, needs play a much larger role in determining draft decisions. In contrast, MLB prospects are a few years away and needs play almost no role. But "almost no role" is different from "no role at all."

 

I get that argument, admittedly I’ve probably used it before but I honestly believe things are almost never equal. If they take Leiter over Davis, it’s because they think he’s better, or he was asking for less money.

[Hugh2]

I think drafting for need happens more later in the draft. You need to fill out rosters, but at the top it’s all about talent and money.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

So if "need" isn't a factor in taking a top draft pick -- but you could have your choice of a guarantee from the cornfields of hardball heaven -- which would you choose: a Hall of Fame hitter or a Hall of Fame pitcher?

 

... in a sport rife with cliched quotes like "pitching is 75% of the game" and "good pitching beats good hitting" and "pitching and defense win championships"...

[Hugh2]

So if "need" isn't a factor in taking a top draft pick -- but you could have your choice of a guarantee from the cornfields of hardball heaven -- which would you choose: a Hall of Fame hitter or a Hall of Fame pitcher?

 

... in a sport rife with cliched quotes like "pitching is 75% of the game" and "good pitching beats good hitting" and "pitching and defense win championships"...

 

I’d choose the hall of fame pitcher.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I’d choose the hall of fame pitcher.

 

I was never a pitcher, and as a hitter I never even liked pitchers. But as a Red Sox fan growing up in the 60s, 70s and 80s, I cheered for many Hall of Fame type hitters -- but never a winner. It wasn't like Boston didn't have any star pitchers, just never enough.

 

New York, on the other hand, always had plenty of pitching, especially under George Steinbrenner once free agency began. The Yankees had pretty good hitting -- a lot of .290 guys -- but constantly stockpiled quality arms, even after they won it all. They were almost always a little better. Then the cycle repeated itself in the 90s.

 

We all know how the Sox finally reversed the curses this century: see 2004 ALCS Gm 7... or 2018 ALDS Gm 3...

[notin]

I think drafting for need happens more later in the draft. You need to fill out rosters, but at the top it’s all about talent and money.

 

Even later in the draft, they probably just grab the players they think have the best chance to actually make the majors, as slim as it can get with some of those picks.

 

No point in drafting for the needs you will have in 3-4 years when you don't know what those needs will be...

[Hugh2]

Even later in the draft, they probably just grab the players they think have the best chance to actually make the majors, as slim as it can get with some of those picks.

 

No point in drafting for the needs you will have in 3-4 years when you don't know what those needs will be...

 

 

I agree, I think it's always some form of BPA. The way I see it is when they're down in the later rounds and over 600 guys are off the board no one has a definitive board where player x is the BPA, and player y is BPA available after him. They have guys in tiers of talent. I think at that point it's easy for a team to say we need HS pitchers because we have no pitching depth in Salem/GCL etc.

 

Of course, going from 40 rounds to 20 rounds may change things.

[Hugh2]

There's also UDFA

[Hugh2]

One thing I'm certain of is the higher in the draft you go, the less likely need is a factor. I'm sure it's certainly this way in the first round for most teams.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Callis and Mayo both said today that if the Pirates don't take Davis at 1, he will be there at 4.

 

The Pirates are desperate for a catcher of the future--they have nobody--and if they can sign Davis for under slot then Davis makes a lot of sense for them. I wonder if Davis would be willing to do that? Would any of the top prospects be willing to sign with the Pirates for under slot?

 

If the Pirates pick comes down to, say, three players, the final decision might be determined solely by the economics, i.e., the player with the lowest bonus demand.

Edited June 9, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Hugh2]

Callis and Mayo both said today that if the Pirates don't take Davis at 1, he will be there at 4.

 

The Pirates are desperate for a catcher of the future--they have nobody--and if they can sign Davis for under slot then Davis makes a lot of sense for them. I wonder if Davis would be willing to do that? Would any of the top prospects be willing to sign with the Pirates for under slot?

 

If the Pirates pick comes down to, say, three players, the final decision might be determined solely by the economics, i.e., the player with the lowest bonus demand.

 

Admittedly I'm no an expert but I wonder how much that top tier of talent can really be discounted. The only consensus about this draft is that there is no consensus. There is a pool of 6 guys who are all getting talked about going top 5. I'm wondering if they can work against a team trying to cut a deal. For example, if Leiter slips to #4 his agent can say we could have gone number 1 we want slot. There may be a guy willing to go under, but if a team wants to save millions I wonder if they have to go outside that top 6 to do so.

 

If that's the case, I think I'd be more interested in the Sox taking whoever falls to them, take BPA, maybe they think that's Davis, Leiter, or one of the HS shortstops at the top.

[moonslav59]

Callis and Mayo both said today that if the Pirates don't take Davis at 1, he will be there at 4.

 

The Pirates are desperate for a catcher of the future--they have nobody--and if they can sign Davis for under slot then Davis makes a lot of sense for them. I wonder if Davis would be willing to do that? Would any of the top prospects be willing to sign with the Pirates for under slot?

 

If the Pirates pick comes down to, say, three players, the final decision might be determined solely by the economics, i.e., the player with the lowest bonus demand.

 

Stallings has turned into a decent catcher and has 3 years of control left.

 

Putting aside the whole idea of drafting for position with the #1 pick, which hardly anyone advocates, I'm not even sure that's their highest area of need- long-term.

 

BTV also has their 10th highest valued prospect listed as a catcher (Rodriguez).

 

If they really need a young catcher, maybe we can trade them Ronaldo Hernandez for Adam Frazier (.864) with 1 more year of team control and Cole Tucker (OF).

 

Then, we can draft Davis at 4.

[mvp 78]

IDK, I think having Ronaldo Hernandez would not prohibit me from grabbing a C #1.

[notin]

IDK, I think having Ronaldo Hernandez would not prohibit me from grabbing a C #1.

 

No minor league player should influence how a team drafts. No major league player either. Take the best player. A significant chunk of them change positions before they reach MLB anyway, and yes, that does include pitchers who become position players (and occasionally the opposite. Right, Matt Bush?)

[Hugh2]

Who even knows if Davis can stick behind the plate.

 

He has a plus plus arm, and will throw out baserunners, but everything else behind the plate looks lackluster. Now, catchers can take time to develop, so I'm not saying you draft him and move him off Catcher immediately, but I think you take him knowing in mind that his bat will play elsewhere. He's the best college hitter in this draft. Personally, I could care less about the plus arm if everything else behind the plate is lagging, Which is why I would prefer one of the shortstops at the top, but I wouldn't be disappointed with Davis.

[moonslav59]

IDK, I think having Ronaldo Hernandez would not prohibit me from grabbing a C #1.

 

Nor should having the best catching prospect in all of baseball.

 

Catchers are hard to find. If both turned out to be great, the trade value of one would be enormous.

[Hugh2]

At one point, people were advocating for trading away Vasquez because we had this guy called Blake Swihart in our system.

[Hugh2]

There's so many reasons that you never draft for need, and you certainly don't let a prospect in your system block you from drafting a position you feel a guy is BPA at.

 

First of all, these guys take 4-6 years to effectively reach the majors, even top college picks often take 2 years to develop into everyday players.

Players bust, get injured, and never pan out, and then a position you thought you were strong at becomes a weakness.

The point of a system is to supplement the big league club, and sometimes that is through trades. If you have a surplus of one thing, you can trade it for what you need.

 

If you had the #1 prospect in baseball, and he was a catcher, and you had a crystal ball that told you Davis would become the #2 prospect in baseball you draft him, you draft him all day. If both guys pan out you package one up for a TOTRS.

[jacksonianmarch]

There's so many reasons that you never draft for need, and you certainly don't let a prospect in your system block you from drafting a position you feel a guy is BPA at.

 

First of all, these guys take 4-6 years to effectively reach the majors, even top college picks often take 2 years to develop into everyday players.

Players bust, get injured, and never pan out, and then a position you thought you were strong at becomes a weakness.

The point of a system is to supplement the big league club, and sometimes that is through trades. If you have a surplus of one thing, you can trade it for what you need.

 

If you had the #1 prospect in baseball, and he was a catcher, and you had a crystal ball that told you Davis would become the #2 prospect in baseball you draft him, you draft him all day. If both guys pan out you package one up for a TOTRS.

 

Depends on your team and depends on your draft rankings. If you are the sox or the yanks, you can extend the player you drafted. If you are Pitt, then you shouldnt draft for need because that player may be gone by the time the next guy is ready. But I wouldnt advocate drafting for need and selecting the inferior player. I am saying that at the top of the draft, most of the players have similar ceilings and drafting for need might be the separating factor, ESPECIALLY if you are taking an advanced college player who could fly through your system

[jacksonianmarch]

Most recent mock has Lawler dropping to the sox and Rocker dropping to 6th. Mayo also has Hoglund coming to the Bronx which I can 100% see happening

[Hugh2]

Most recent mock has Lawler dropping to the sox and Rocker dropping to 6th. Mayo also has Hoglund coming to the Bronx which I can 100% see happening

 

I think you may be refering to the pipeline rankings which are a week old. Which mine as well be 6 months in draft talk. I think the top ten is pretty much set give or take, it's just the order that we don't know. All these guys we've been hearing about such as Leiter, Rocker, Lawlar, Mayer, House, Davis, Jobe are all going top ten but what order? IDK.

 

Last Mock I saw has Leiter going #4 to Boston and Rocker falling to 11th. But they had Kahlil Watson shooting up to #2. Prior to the highest I saw him was sneaking into the top 10.

 

https://www.prospectslive.com/mlb-draft/2021/5/11/2021-mlb-mock-draft-40-zwtc9

[moonslav59]

At one point, people were advocating for trading away Vasquez because we had this guy called Blake Swihart in our system.

 

Others said trade Swihart, because we had Vaz. Wish we'd have done that, while his stock was high.

[moonslav59]

This was in an article I read, yesterday:

 

Here's a roundup of expert predictions for the Red Sox's fourth overall pick from recent 2021 MLB Mock Drafts.

 

Carlos Collazo, Baseball America: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt

 

Keith Law, The Athletic: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt

 

Jonathan Mayo, MLB Pipeline: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (Dallas)

 

Kiley McDaniel, ESPN: Henry Davis, C, Louisville

 

Prospects Live: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt

 

Michael Dault, Through The Fence Baseball: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt

[jacksonianmarch]

One thing I don't want to see if Leiter on the sox.