2021 MLB draft

[mvp 78]

Oh it's very likely. If us under-informed folk like him so much, safe bet he is not a secret from the front offices around the league...

 

If I had a back of round 1 pick, I think I'd go for a high upside guy like Hill rather than the usual Deven Marrero's that are there.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If Leiter is there at 4 and the Sox pass, should we be disappointed?

 

It seems like we should be, but I can't pretend I go into this with equal information to the Sox front office (or any team's front office).

 

MLB.com has Leiter going 7th, citing his size (6' and 195lbs) and his walk rate as reasons he falls. Now this draft was done in December, 2020, and Leiter has certainly has cut down on his walks (from 4.6BB/9 to 3.4BB/9) since then. But he is probably still close to 6' 195lbs...

 

Pipeline Inbox: Sizing up the Draft

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I am immersed in the 2021 Draft right now and enjoying every minute. I had a lot of fun getting scouts to compare Vanderbilt aces Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker and am enjoying a deep dive into my half of the country as we work on our new Draft Top

 

I just read this story on MLB that says that depending on who goes first, Rocker would be the heaviest pitcher in draft history, and Leiter would tie for the shortest... Both have the genes of pro athletes (though one is a baseball player and the other is a football player).

 

It also says Lawler's K-rate is up in high school, and Davis is raking; he also has a cannon arm, but most scouts rate him below avg. as a catcher and wonder if he should be moved to rightfield (like Harper).

[notin]

Pipeline Inbox: Sizing up the Draft

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I am immersed in the 2021 Draft right now and enjoying every minute. I had a lot of fun getting scouts to compare Vanderbilt aces Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker and am enjoying a deep dive into my half of the country as we work on our new Draft Top

 

I just read this story on MLB that says that depending on who goes first, Rocker would be the heaviest pitcher in draft history, and Leiter would tie for the shortest... Both have the genes of pro athletes (though one is a baseball player and the other is a football player).

 

It also says Lawler's K-rate is up in high school, and Davis is raking; he also has a cannon arm, but most scouts rate him below avg. as a catcher and wonder if he should be moved to rightfield (like Harper).

 

I've herard otherwise about Davis, but I've never seen him play, and, let's be honest, even if I had, I am totally unqualified to tell if a college catcher could stick at that position up to the majors. If the book on him is - might not stick at catcher, than, yeah, I'd pass on him, too. At the number 4 pick, anyway. Maybe gamble on him in another round if he falls.

 

But that makes the fourth pick all the more difficult. Fabian is a hot name, but he does seem to have a ton of strikeouts (albeit with a good amount of walks) and is only hitting like .236 against college pitching this year so far. No idea how he will be, either, although I have heard he is a good defensive player.

 

I have a feeling the Sox will take one of the shortstops - Lawlor, Mayer or McLain. But I'd love to see them add a high upside arm...

[a700hitter]

I've herard otherwise about Davis, but I've never seen him play, and, let's be honest, even if I had, I am totally unqualified to tell if a college catcher could stick at that position up to the majors. If the book on him is - might not stick at catcher, than, yeah, I'd pass on him, too. At the number 4 pick, anyway. Maybe gamble on him in another round if he falls.

 

But that makes the fourth pick all the more difficult. Fabian is a hot name, but he does seem to have a ton of strikeouts (albeit with a good amount of walks) and is only hitting like .236 against college pitching this year so far. No idea how he will be, either, although I have heard he is a good defensive player.

 

I have a feeling the Sox will take one of the shortstops - Lawlor, Mayer or McLain. But I'd love to see them add a high upside arm...

They are all guessing, and they all copy each other.

[notin]

They are all guessing, and they all copy each other.

 

I do think a lot of them do. But hey, I did the same thing with my 3 person mock draft a few posts earlier.

 

To be fair, Baseball America does use scouting opinions and have field researchers and probably pays scouting bureaus for more info. But I have a feeling some of these blog forums like Bleacher Report are a little less thorough...

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I would take the catcher, H.Davis. I would love it if the Red Sox could get him under slot and take a hard to sign guy in the second round.

 

The high school shortstops are impressive but the Red Sox will always have the resources to put together a top offensive team. You use the 4th pick of the draft to take something that isn't readily available. My second choice would be Hoglund. 4 might be a little high for Hoglund but if the Red Sox can get him at below slot, they can add a stud in round 2, while adding an impressive pitching prospect to the farm system.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I do think a lot of them do. But hey, I did the same thing with my 3 person mock draft a few posts earlier.

 

To be fair, Baseball America does use scouting opinions and have field researchers and probably pays scouting bureaus for more info. But I have a feeling some of these blog forums like Bleacher Report are a little less thorough...

 

It's like nerds all vying for Penny's attention when they first met in Big Bang (or was that the new neighbor moving in upstairs)... except Sheldon, who waited a few years and dated the overlooked sure thing.*

 

*obviously, these pop culture references are only symbols for actual associates that will remain nameless; call them Len, Howie and Raj... or Friedman, Cashman, and Blooman... or some guys I forgot at a singles bar (because nobody remembers a singles hitter).

[jacksonianmarch]

I would take the catcher, H.Davis. I would love it if the Red Sox could get him under slot and take a hard to sign guy in the second round.

 

The high school shortstops are impressive but the Red Sox will always have the resources to put together a top offensive team. You use the 4th pick of the draft to take something that isn't readily available. My second choice would be Hoglund. 4 might be a little high for Hoglund but if the Red Sox can get him at below slot, they can add a stud in round 2, while adding an impressive pitching prospect to the farm system.

 

When you pick in the top 5, you don't play the under/over slot game unless you are the Pirates. You have a shot at a top talent, you take it

[moonslav59]

When you pick in the top 5, you don't play the under/over slot game unless you are the Pirates. You have a shot at a top talent, you take it

 

Maybe they think Davis is as good as anyone else available.

[jacksonianmarch]

https://www.prospectslive.com/mlb-draft/2021/3/16/2021-mlb-mock-draft-30

 

Sox mocked to Marcelo Mayer, who will be a top 5 pick in this draft no doubt. Kid can play. With Hill likely down with a UCL injury and Leiter/Rocker mocked to be gone by 4, it looks to be Hoglund as the next pitcher off the board and the talent gulf seems pretty large. In the MLB draft, you take the best talent available since it can be so hit or miss. You never draft for positional necessity unless you have equal grades between players

[moonslav59]

https://www.prospectslive.com/mlb-draft/2021/3/16/2021-mlb-mock-draft-30

 

Sox mocked to Marcelo Mayer, who will be a top 5 pick in this draft no doubt. Kid can play. With Hill likely down with a UCL injury and Leiter/Rocker mocked to be gone by 4, it looks to be Hoglund as the next pitcher off the board and the talent gulf seems pretty large. In the MLB draft, you take the best talent available since it can be so hit or miss. You never draft for positional necessity unless you have equal grades between players

 

Agreed.

 

All things even, I'd like a college player. They seem to be more reliable picks.

 

Bloom does not have a great drafting record, but I doubt does not have the same talent evaluation team working with him, now.

 

It's a big draft for the Sox, as is this IFA cycle.

[moonslav59]

mymlbdraft.com and fueledbysports.com has Lawler 3rd, McLain 4th and Mayer 5th

 

throughthefencebaseball.com has McLain 3rd and Lawler 4th

 

cbs ranks the top prospects as such:

1. Leiter

2. Lawler

3. Fabian

4. Rocker

5. Mayer

6. Del Castillo

7. Watson

8. Davis

 

I wonder, if someday,MLB will allow draft pick trading.

 

[notin]

When you pick in the top 5, you don't play the under/over slot game unless you are the Pirates. You have a shot at a top talent, you take it

 

It all depends what they think is "top talent." If they think someone like Texas RHP Ty Madden or A&M RHP Bryce Miller is a top talent, Bloom will take him.

 

That said, the unexpected move by Bloom might be to take one of the remaining from Lawlor, Mayer or McLain...

[moonslav59]

It all depends what they think is "top talent." If they think someone like Texas RHP Ty Madden or A&M RHP Bryce Miller is a top talent, Bloom will take him.

 

That said, the unexpected move by Bloom might be to take one of the remaining from Lawlor, Mayer or McLain...

 

It's hard to know what Bloom will do. His MO in TB may not be relevant, since he had to draft players with their signability and bonus money in mind- not so much after the slot money system was created, but still...

 

He'll take the best talent available, but who he thinks is the best may differ from what we think or what the "experts" think. He's not alone: there are often several "surprise picks" early in every draft.

[notin]

It's hard to know what Bloom will do. His MO in TB may not be relevant, since he had to draft players with their signability and bonus money in mind- not so much after the slot money system was created, but still...

 

He'll take the best talent available, but who he thinks is the best may differ from what we think or what the "experts" think. He's not alone: there are often several "surprise picks" early in every draft.

 

You don't see it so much anymore, as the slot money system was created to prevent those Matt Bush signability draft picks. It does happen now, but more so with the underslot money in mind. THe most glaring example was the 2012 draft when Houston took Carlos Correa first overall, passing on the large #1 favorite Mark Appel (who would be drafted by Houston first overall the following season), along with others a highly regarded as Correa, including Kevin Gausman, Byron Buxton, Lucas Giolito and Mike Zunino. But Correa was no so much of a reach, as he was often mentioned as a candidate to go first and was a consensus top 6 pick. But Houston took him because he was willing to sign for underslot money, and the applied the savings to their next pick, a projected first rounder named Lance McCullers Jr, who was falling for signability reasons.

 

The Royals made a similar move, taking Hunter Dozier at #8 the following year despite his inclusion in the first 20 picks of almost no mock draft that season. But they used the savings from his underslot signing to grab a falling Sean Manaea in the second round.

 

Could Bloom try something similar in this draft? He couldn't last year as he had no second round pick (and yet he still made what many called a reach pick)...

[moonslav59]

You don't see it so much anymore, as the slot money system was created to prevent those Matt Bush signability draft picks. It does happen now, but more so with the underslot money in mind. THe most glaring example was the 2012 draft when Houston took Carlos Correa first overall, passing on the large #1 favorite Mark Appel (who would be drafted by Houston first overall the following season), along with others a highly regarded as Correa, including Kevin Gausman, Byron Buxton, Lucas Giolito and Mike Zunino. But Correa was no so much of a reach, as he was often mentioned as a candidate to go first and was a consensus top 6 pick. But Houston took him because he was willing to sign for underslot money, and the applied the savings to their next pick, a projected first rounder named Lance McCullers Jr, who was falling for signability reasons.

 

The Royals made a similar move, taking Hunter Dozier at #8 the following year despite his inclusion in the first 20 picks of almost no mock draft that season. But they used the savings from his underslot signing to grab a falling Sean Manaea in the second round.

 

Could Bloom try something similar in this draft? He couldn't last year as he had no second round pick (and yet he still made what many called a reach pick)...

 

Good points. Had we had a top 2 pick, I think it would be easy.

 

It seems wide open at #4.

[notin]

When you pick in the top 5, you don't play the under/over slot game unless you are the Pirates. You have a shot at a top talent, you take it

 

The Astros did it in 2012...

[jacksonianmarch]

The Astros did it in 2012...

 

They did, but Correia was a top talent and was someone they liked at 1 as well. If there are equal grades on a player and one costs less, go for it. But to draft a guy with a lower grade due to cost savings to grab someone who is free falling who might not be there at pick 2 is a risky game to play

[moonslav59]

Here's Baseball America's mock draft 2012:

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2012-mlb-mock-draft-2-0-may-25/

6. Correa

8. D Marrero

 

The Bleacher Report and others had Correa going 3rd.

 

[notin]

They did, but Correia was a top talent and was someone they liked at 1 as well. If there are equal grades on a player and one costs less, go for it. But to draft a guy with a lower grade due to cost savings to grab someone who is free falling who might not be there at pick 2 is a risky game to play

 

.. which is exactly what they did.

 

Although they obviously liked Appel, considering they took him number one overall the very next season...

[notin]

Here's Baseball America's mock draft 2012:

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2012-mlb-mock-draft-2-0-may-25/

6. Correa

8. D Marrero

 

The Bleacher Report and others had Correa going 3rd.

 

 

No one had him outside the top 6. Those names (Correa, Appel, Gausman, Buxton, Zunino and Giolito) were all etched into those top spots in any order. And only Appel was the flop...

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I wouldn't be surprised if Hoglund ends up being the best SP to come out of round 1. You just never know how things will unfold. Classic example: how many pitchers were taken in front of Roger Clemons in round 1 in the 1983 draft?

 

Take Hoglund at 4, sign him to a below slot deal, and then spend that extra money in round 2. I'm leaning toward a SP in round 1, just because the Red Sox are loaded with position prospect studs already: Downs, Duran, Casas, Jimenez. And a few other position prospects could develop into major talents, such as Yorke and Jordan. With this level of talent in the system, the Red Sox can easily fill in a few holes through free agency.

 

But the position of catcher is completely different and you often can't rely on free agency to find an elite catcher, which is why H.Davis is also an intriguing choice.

[moonslav59]

I wouldn't be surprised if Hoglund ends up being the best SP to come out of round 1. You just never know how things will unfold. Classic example: how many pitchers were taken in front of Roger Clemons in round 1 in the 1983 draft?

 

Take Hoglund at 4, sign him to a below slot deal, and then spend that extra money in round 2. I'm leaning toward a SP in round 1, just because the Red Sox are loaded with position prospect studs already: Downs, Duran, Casas, Jimenez. And a few other position prospects could develop into major talents, such as Yorke and Jordan. With this level of talent in the system, the Red Sox can easily fill in a few holes through free agency.

 

But the position of catcher is completely different and you often can't rely on free agency to find an elite catcher, which is why H.Davis is also an intriguing choice.

 

I think you should always take who you think is the best player, regardless of position or slot money considerations, unless you have 2 or more players rated very similarly, which could be the case at pick #4, this year.

 

That being said, I hope the Sox rate a college pitcher highly enough to take at pick 4. If they take someone else, I'll trust they know more than I do or even all the mock draft sites.

 

I will add something about catchers: catching prospects are probably the hardest to "get right." Some that are "gotten right" end up being moved to other positions.

 

Although I often frown on anecdotal evidence, like the case of Roger Clemens, think of all the highly or somewhat highly rated young catchers we've had in our system (some by trade) who flopped (some moved up after being drafted by showing promise in the minors or early majors- I won't add Salty to this list):

 

Kole Cottam (130th pick in 2018.)

Austin Rei (81st pick in 2015.)

Jon Denny (81st pick in 2013.)

Swihart (26th pick in 2011- man, that was THAT long ago?)

Lavarnway (was a 6th rd pick, though with Federowicz taken the next rd.)

Kottaras (PTBNL in David Wells trade, and he actually went on to put up some decent numbers in MLB after being waived.)

Schoppach (The one we got right: we traded away. 2nd rd 2001.)

Marzano (taken in first round back in 1984)

Marc Sullivan (2nd rd in 1979)

 

Note: We did take Carlton Fisk in the first round in 1967, and that worked out well, but that was so long ago.

 

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I trust that Bloom will make the right decision at 4. His moves have been brilliant so far. And so if the Red Sox take the High School Shortstop at 4, over the catcher and Hoglund, that decision will be based on the belief that that Shortstop is supremely talented and too good to pass on.

[notin]

I trust that Bloom will make the right decision at 4. His moves have been brilliant so far. And so if the Red Sox take the High School Shortstop at 4, over the catcher and Hoglund, that decision will be based on the belief that that Shortstop is supremely talented and too good to pass on.

 

As much as I would think this team needs to build up it's MiLB pitching, if they take a HS shortstop, I can see why. My first thought was "You don't build up your pitching by drafting high school shortstops," but maybe you do. If, say, Mayer or Lawlor (and/or Yorke) pan out at the lower levels and become ranked prospects, it is possible they can be dealt for a pitcher more established in the MiLB ranks or whom already has MLB experience, which is a lot less risky than taking even a college pitcher...

[moonslav59]

As much as I would think this team needs to build up it's MiLB pitching, if they take a HS shortstop, I can see why. My first thought was "You don't build up your pitching by drafting high school shortstops," but maybe you do. If, say, Mayer or Lawlor (and/or Yorke) pan out at the lower levels and become ranked prospects, it is possible they can be dealt for a pitcher more established in the MiLB ranks or whom already has MLB experience, which is a lot less risky than taking even a college pitcher...

 

Or, having cheap young players at key positions, you can afford to spend on FA pitchers.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

As much as I would think this team needs to build up it's MiLB pitching, if they take a HS shortstop, I can see why. My first thought was "You don't build up your pitching by drafting high school shortstops," but maybe you do. If, say, Mayer or Lawlor (and/or Yorke) pan out at the lower levels and become ranked prospects, it is possible they can be dealt for a pitcher more established in the MiLB ranks or whom already has MLB experience, which is a lot less risky than taking even a college pitcher...

 

Or a shortstop who develops into a Gold Glover at the most important position behind the mound; that guy could help a lot of pitchers.

[notin]

Or a shortstop who develops into a Gold Glover at the most important position behind the mound; that guy could help a lot of pitchers.

 

True, but right now the Sox have a lot of shortstops under 21 in the system. Lugo, Bonaci, Flores. They really only need one on hand for the parent club.

 

Of course, "high school shortstop" often just means "best player on the team" and it's real common for those guys to find another position before they reach the Majors...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

True, but right now the Sox have a lot of shortstops under 21 in the system. Lugo, Bonaci, Flores. They really only need one on hand for the parent club.

 

Of course, "high school shortstop" often just means "best player on the team" and it's real common for those guys to find another position before they reach the Majors...

 

Ya, I think it's a hardball rule for every legitimate high school prospect to play short... when he's not pitching.

[moonslav59]

Rocker to the Sox- hints at big drop off after pick 4...

 

Pipeline Podcast makes top 20 Draft picks

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The MLB Draft is still three months away, but our experts, Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo, are set to release an updated and expanded Draft Top 150 later this week. While they won’t give the order away in advance, they did offer a sneak preview on the latest Pipeline Podcast.